Dow Jones ready to drop below 21400 levels now?The Dow Jones is progressing well into its Wave (3) at a higher degree as labelled here. Within the 3rd wave, a lower degree wave iv was unfolding last week and we had discussed the possibility of its termination around 23200/300 levels. Last Friday, Dow Jones managed to hit 23365 levels intraday and closed around 23000 levels as seen on the chart displayed here. It could be a potential wave iv termination and prices could resume lower from here below 21400 levels. If the above structure holds true, prices should remain below 23370 levels and bears in control from here on. Once Wave (3) is terminated lower, it would be interesting to see if Dow Jones turns higher again. At least for now, the bearish pressure remains against 24000 levels.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Djianalysis
A sad closing out of 2018Some elegant prose should be offered here to usher out 2018. Perhaps a bow of the head and a moment of silence.
Last trade day of the year. What are we to expect?
Fridays trading was underwhelming. The price rose to 23381, testing the floor of the S/R level (23360) which was set back in February 2018 and broken last week. Closing the week off at 23062.
Now, I've read the same articles you have. Is this a dead cat bounce? Is the market going to go lower in 2019? Is there a rally in the making? Where is the new floor?
Monday will decide the fate of the world (bum bum bummmmm). Well, the first quarter of 2019.
The weekly chart is taking aim at 24094. The daily chart 24048.
With the 4H chart showing stalled movement on Friday after a second session engulfing bar on Thursday. The engulfing bar is taking aim at 23700.
I will give Monday the 600+ points.
When will this kick off? Any ones guess. Morning, Afternoon, all day? But if I were a betting man...I'd expect lack of activity in the AM and mid-day trading to kick the 600 points off.
I believe we will end the year between 23700 and 24000 This would then be the setup of a S/R boundary of approximately 5000 points.
DJI setting up for bears takeoverDJI had a lovely 5% rally today but as you can see from our 4 hour chart it has been respecting a very strong trend line it has been using as resistance, price is coming up to test this level again and we are expecting another clear bounce.
We can also see another economic crash coming in the not to far future, all signs are pointing toward this.
All entry TP and SL are reserved for our clients, if you would like to join our team on a 2 week FREE trial then send us a message.
DJI, Daily Chart Analysis 12/22Technical Analysis and Outlook
As shown on Nov 24 chart analysis, DJI inner Index Dip 23210 was completed as of Dec 20 trading session, while Current Index Dip 23365 is open for business. There is two additional Index Dip outcome for mid-long term perspective.
Currently, we have two strategic resistance levels to be aware of. Mean Res registered at 23223 and Key Res 23672 , while there are no significant support levels other than Index Dips outcomes - that however, will change as index price action will develop gradually. See 'Indices Market' tab for full Market Commentary.
Dow Jones Industrial Average SHorting.....Mark Douglas on Chart Patterns:
We can use all the various tools to analyze the market’s behavior and find the patterns that represent the best edges, and from an analytical perspective, these patterns can appear to be precisely the same in every respect, both mathematically and visually. But, if the consistency of the group of traders who are creating the pattern “now” is different by even one person from the group that created the pattern in the past, then the outcome of the current pattern has the potential to be different from the past pattern.It takes only one trader, somewhere in the world, with a different belief about the future to change the outcome of any particular market pattern and negate the edge that pattern represents.
The most fundamental characteristic of the market’s behavior is that each “now moment” market situation, each “now moment” behavior pattern, and each “now moment” edge is always a unique occurrence with its own outcome, independent of all others. Uniqueness implies that anything can happen, either what we know (expect or anticipate), or what we don’t know (or can’t know, unless we had extraordinary perceptual abilities). A constant flow of both known and unknown variables creates a probabilistic environment where we don’t know for certain what will happen next. This last statement may seem quite logical.
Why Most Demo Trades result is very much better than "real" money?!"...To be a Consistently Profitable Professional Trader you need to acquire a psychology skill called "Trading without Fear" a carefree state of mind in trading.. In The Zone/In the flow state of mind ..."Mark Douglas :Trading In The Zone : Professionals don't perceive anything about the market as painful; therefore, no threat exists for them. If there's no threat, there's nothing to defend against. As a result, there isn't any reason for their conscious or subconscious defense mechanism to kick in. That's why professionals can see and do things that mystify everyone else. They're in "THE FLOW", because they're perceiving an endless stream of opportunities, and when they're "NOT IN THE FLOW". the very best of the best can recognize that fact and the compensate by either "SCALING BACK" or "NOT TRADING AT ALL"...
DJI: bullish or bearish?DJI looks very interesting and ambiguous. There are two patterns on the chart: the first one is bullish (double bottom), the second one is bearish (double top). Waiting for resistance (27000) and support (23500) tests. But resistance is stronger, because growth after the end of the 2008-crisis was also strong. Short looks more realistic, then long. Waiting for the breaking of the support line.
YM ThursdayAs described yesterday, the buyers came in strong out of support areas at ~24100. Price broke through the 25000 level and created a new structure high by breaking the last highs as well. In the more immediate order flow price created a 1 to 1 to the upside reaching 25300. Price corrected strong and broke the immediate structure at ~25070. I am expecting price to correct a little more to the downside overall and a possible sell at a 1 to 1 completion - D-sell at ~25233.
distribution on Weekly chartAll I have to say is.
R.I.P US economy.
I don't care about the fundamentals only that the effects of the fundamentals are forecasted into price.
Price tells mee all I need to know about the fundamentals and I don't even need to look at the news to tell you that we're in for a rough time.
Look so very like Wyckoff distribution on the weekly.
6monthly chart looks like a super bearish inverted hammer and tweezer top (albet 2 more months to go on this current candle)
1 monthly chart again showing me signs of a weakening trend, simple bearish divergences on all 3 of my oscillators, RSI, fast and slow all in tandem, stars are aligning.
2W, Weekly again all are looking weak.
Technically, we're still considered to be "bullish" since the bullish market structure is not yet invalidated (recent swing low has remained intact).
But what's worrying for the bulls is that on the weekly and 2W chart RSI has failed just below 70 (the upper limit of bullish territory, from what I've seen RSI divergence SFPs forming between 60-70 is bloody terrifying.) is scaring me. On the monthly chart, the fast oscillator just failed at the 0 line, that's very scary again.
Technically we're not bearish yet, but unless I see otherwise, I'm going to be a contrarian and say we're bearish.
feel free to open up the indicators to see what I'm talking about.
targets marked on the chart.
DOW JONES DJI - 2008 SIMILARITIES - ILLUSION OF STRONG ECONOMYDOW JONES DJI - Connect the dots
Keep in mind that I am not your financial advisor, with that said below is my quick analysis which I have done on my previous chart, but if you have not read it already, it will still be relevant
In recent weeks, October 10-11 to be exact we have observed an over 1200 point drop as interest rates have risen. Do you think it was just an accident? Well many will tell you YES, it's just a short term downtrend, but what did many 'analysts' say? They said that this is a 'short' term correction. What is our 'key phrase' here? 'Short' term. When it comes to crypto, yes there can be short term correction, however not in stock market. There is nothing 'short' term about a few month correction and that is what no one is talking about. Did you notice how on same day that stocks started major decline we had so called analysts coming out and saying that economy is strong, it will recover, we will see 40k dow jones soon, it's temporary, and then we had Trump administration come out and say that 'Our Economy Is Strong' and calling Feds 'Crazy'. Now please keep in mind that we are not talking politics or anything of that nature here, just looking at facts and some so called 'Fake News' that we had come out from known media sources telling us that everything was just fine! Does that remind you of 2008 crisis and 2007 on how it started back then? Well it does doesn't it?
What's different about this 'correction'?
What's different about this 'correction' is the fact that this is NO regular correction, but a start of a FINANCIAL RESET and movement to ONE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM. Back in 2017, during a press conference with Japanese prime minister Trump noted that devaluation of US dollar 0.41% is a terrible thing, but that a 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' is being created and will be here much faster than we think.
In recent days another interesting thing that came out in the news is that Trump Administration has been in constant contact with a crypto currency company called Ripple Labs that have developed fast payment solution which solves world liquidity issue. Do keep in mind that I am not inferring that this is what will be used as global currency or ANYTHING related for that matter. Simply pointing out that there is A LOT happening behind the scenes.
With that said I would also like to point out that Federal Reserve has been very busy as well behind the scenes with their Faster Payments Task Force that was created in recent years with a task in mind of transforming current financial system by 2020
All you have to do here is connect the dots . . .
How do you convince people that one world currency or level playing field is what's needed? Easy, you create, what seems to be a financial crash which in turn makes people and investors 'untrustworthy' towards their country's financial system. As financial crash is happening, suddenly government and different organization come out and tell us that 'WAIT, guess what? We have just the solution you have been looking for!" that's when the 'levels playing field' comes out. I do not want to speculate too much on what it may be but what I will say is that it will result in greater control by government over our finances, in what way it will be done, I am not yet sure, but I do have few guesses which I will not discuss just yet.
Conclusion
What should you do?
Well, since I am not your financial advisor, I am not going to give you a direct answer but I will say what I am doing. I am minimizing amount of cash that I am holding in my banks and moving it into other assets. The bells are ringing