Djianalysis
DOW JONES DJI - FINANCIAL RESET - THIS IS HOW IT STARTSIn recent weeks, October 10-11 to be exact we have observed an over 1200 point drop as interest rates have risen. Do you think it was just an accident? Well many will tell you YES, it's just a short term downtrend, but what did many 'analysts' say? They said that this is a 'short' term correction. What is our 'key phrase' here? 'Short' term. When it comes to crypto, yes there can be short term correction, however not in stock market. There is nothing 'short' term about a few month correction and that is what no one is talking about. Did you notice how on same day that stocks started major decline we had so called analysts coming out and saying that economy is strong, it will recover, we will see 40k dow jones soon, it's temporary, and then we had Trump administration come out and say that 'Our Economy Is Strong' and calling Feds 'Crazy'. Now please keep in mind that we are not talking politics or anything of that nature here, just looking at facts and some so called 'Fake News' that we had come out from known media sources telling us that everything was just fine! Does that remind you of 2008 crisis and 2007 on how it started back then? Well it does doesn't it?
What's different about this 'correction'?
What's different about this 'correction' is the fact that this is NO regular correction, but a start of a FINANCIAL RESET and movement to ONE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM. Back in 2017, during a press conference with Japanese prime minister Trump noted that devaluation of US dollar is a terrible thing, but that a 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' is being created and will be here much faster than we think.
In recent days another interesting thing that came out in the news is that Trump Administration has been in constant contact with a crypto currency company called Ripple Labs that have developed fast payment solution which solves world liquidity issue. Do keep in mind that I am not inferring that this is what will be used as global currency or ANYTHING related for that matter. Simply pointing out that there is A LOT happening behind the scenes.
With that said I would also like to point out that Federal Reserve has been very busy as well behind the scenes with their Faster Payments Task Force that was created in recent years with a task in mind of transforming current financial system by 2020
All you have to do here is connect the dots . . .
How do you convince people that one world currency or level playing field is what's needed? Easy, you create, what seems to be a financial crash which in turn makes people and investors 'untrustworthy' towards their country's financial system. As financial crash is happening, suddenly government and different organization come out and tell us that 'WAIT, guess what? We have just the solution you have been looking for!" that's when the 'levels playing field' comes out. I do not want to speculate too much on what it may be but what I will say is that it will result in greater control by government over our finances, in what way it will be done, I am not yet sure, but I do have few guesses which I will not discuss just yet.
Conclusion
What should you do?
Well, since I am not your financial advisor, I am not going to give you a direct answer but I will say what I am doing. I am minimizing amount of cash that I am holding in my banks and moving it into other assets. The bells are ringing
Key price level for US Stock Market - Neutral With the US30USD price sitting at a strong horizontal and upwards trend-line support - the market technical analysis here points at upwards movement (Strong pin-bar bounce from support line).
Although our market analysis points towards a potential move up, you should only enter a position if you see a strong break-out above the 25,500 level.
The DJIA could still be under pressure from the increased interest rates and geo-political tensions, if the bears are able to move the price down below this key support level then the market is in serious trouble and there could a downtrend formation in play.
You should always combine a fundamental and technical analysis together. This can give you a much better insight into where the market is looking to go. Simply using technical analysis is not good enough.
This is not investment advice - Losses can exceed initial deposits when trading. Good luck!
MARKET COMMENTARY: WHAT CANNOT GO DOWN MUST GO UPIn my last commentary I noted that the Euro could bounce. The Dollar has just broken significant support as I write. I have short EURUSD positions remaining, but I'm strongly hedged with a DXY short.
I'm also long Gold and Silver, as a counter-trend short Dollar play.
I also noted that political confusion concerning Trump could make the US markets 'choppy' - this is not happening!
Two things are going on: Firstly, Trump is proving to be resilient, as attempts to discredit him and his supporters seem to come to nothing. Second, the rest of the world is falling apart. Investors outside of the USA are buying up blue chip stocks to hedge their own political and economic risk.
Consequently, the Dow has done nothing but rise since February. Taking out the January high would project a move to over 30,000. I see no possibility of a technical pause in the long-term trend, unless the February low is taken out - this seems impossible at this point. As it stands, the current pattern is nothing but bullish.
I'm long DJIA and S&P500.
Dow Jones ElliottWave Analysis: Inflection Area Called The RallyHello Traders,
Dow Jones Elliott wave view suggests that the cycle from 08/15/18 (24946) low ended at the peak of 08/29/18 (26186) in red wave 3.
Below from there, it ended the pullback in red wave 4 at 09/11/18 low (25767) and already broke to new highs confirming that the next extension higher has started.
The internals of the red wave 4 pullback unfolded as an Elliott Wave double correction which ended black wave ((w)) at 09/11/18 low (25817), black wave ((x)) pullback at 09/11/18 (26102) and finally black wave ((y)) of red wave 4 at 09/11/18 low (25767).
After breaking red wave 3 peak confirming that the next extension higher has started, it ended the short-term cycle from 09/11/18 low (25767) at the peak of 09/14/18 (26262) in black wave ((i)). Below from there it reached our equal legs extreme (blue box) towards $26061-25963 area, which was the 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of blue wave (a)-(b) where it ended black wave ((ii)) pullback and also where we like to stay long with a risk free position targeting higher targets.
As long as pullbacks stay above 25767 low we expect the index to see more upside. We don’t like the selling.
Bearish Pattern, but will it deliver? In this week's newsletter (search for #WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter) I covered the U.S stock markets vs. The European ones.
The European Indices can drag the strong U.S market down with them if Draghi will dissapoint.
In such scenario, the Dow presents a bearish opportunity.
A close below the MA line can signal the start of a short term correction wave.
On the other hand, if Draghi will boost stocks... DAX can try to catch up with the S&P500 (currently testing support)
Read more about all of that in this week's newsletter (#WeeklyMarketsAnalysis)
DJI at top of wedge!DJI is at a strong resistance and the top of a wedge! We can assume the price will respect the wedge and target the bottom of the wedge. The trade is how ever risky since there is no real pattern to confirm we will fall to bottom of the wedge expect the fact we are hitting resistance. If you want to be safer wait for the smaller wedge to break that is withing the larger wedge. That will be a better and safer trade!
The Orthodox Broadening Top - Is a Crash Around The Corner?The 4 charts seen in this post are all from different time periods, all the same pattern, and all have the same result (except present day). Ladies and Gents 3.01% - I present the Orthodox Broadening Top (Parabolic Edition). This is a simple pattern - high, low, higher high, lower low, higher high, crash. The 1st chart (top left) is the Dow leading up to the massive crash in 1929 and the Great Depression. I'd like to point out that 1905-1920 was a sideways secular bear market before the run up (more on that in a few). I have noted years on the chart (all of them that aren't present day) where the chart seems to correlate with today's. The 2nd chart on the top right is Silver -0.20% . After that last spike, from high to low, it seen a crash slightly above 72% occur. The 3rd chart (bottom right) is the Dow back in 1959-1966. This was leading into a 16 year sideways secular bear market (like the one from 1905-1920) that was from 1966-1982. The bottom left is the final chart, which is present day. I wanted to point out that a secular bear market predated the crash in '29, and we had a secular bear market most recently (66-82) and haven't had one since. Could a crash be around the corner? If history tells us anything - that or a secular bear market seem to be coming sooner than later.
Dow Futures Elliott Wave View: Reacting Higher From Blue BoxHello Traders,
Dow Futures short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally from 6/28/2018 low cycle to 25572 high on 7/27/2018 peak ended red wave 1. The internals of that rally higher took place as an impulse structure with sub-division of 5 waves structure in each leg higher. Down from there, the index corrected the 6/28/2018 cycle in 3 swings pullback & ended red wave 2 at 25086 low.
The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave Zigzag correction with the sub-division of 5-3-5 structure in black wave ((a)), ((b)), ((c)). Down from 7/27 peak, the decline to 25264 low ended black wave ((a)) in 5 waves structure. From there, the rally to 25486 high ended black wave ((b)) and the subsequent move lower to 25086 low ended black wave ((c)) of 2 in 5 waves structure. Red wave 2 ended within the 25174 – 25100 area, which is 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension of ((a))-((b)), as indicated by the blue box.
Up from 25086, the index is reacting higher in 3 swings so far and longs from blue box area should be risk-free (stop loss at break even) already. The right side tag, combined with the blue box, help to identify the right trading strategy. Near-term, as far as dips remain above 25086 low, the right side of the market remains to the upside. Expect the Index to resume the next extension higher in red wave 3. We don’t like selling it.
Sell DJIAGap, and gap to retest with red outside/engulfing
No new high, down trend should be confirmed on lower time frames
Overvalued confirmed 2x on stoch
MACD showing divergence
Ichi slow/fast line flatline, low volatility after a pump
Sellers should be taking profits after weekly gains
S/L 25590
T/P 24948
T/P 24785
R/R 3.33
R/R 4.58
Profit Trading~