Bearish Pattern, but will it deliver? In this week's newsletter (search for #WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter) I covered the U.S stock markets vs. The European ones.
The European Indices can drag the strong U.S market down with them if Draghi will dissapoint.
In such scenario, the Dow presents a bearish opportunity.
A close below the MA line can signal the start of a short term correction wave.
On the other hand, if Draghi will boost stocks... DAX can try to catch up with the S&P500 (currently testing support)
Read more about all of that in this week's newsletter (#WeeklyMarketsAnalysis)
Djianalysis
DJI at top of wedge!DJI is at a strong resistance and the top of a wedge! We can assume the price will respect the wedge and target the bottom of the wedge. The trade is how ever risky since there is no real pattern to confirm we will fall to bottom of the wedge expect the fact we are hitting resistance. If you want to be safer wait for the smaller wedge to break that is withing the larger wedge. That will be a better and safer trade!
The Orthodox Broadening Top - Is a Crash Around The Corner?The 4 charts seen in this post are all from different time periods, all the same pattern, and all have the same result (except present day). Ladies and Gents 3.01% - I present the Orthodox Broadening Top (Parabolic Edition). This is a simple pattern - high, low, higher high, lower low, higher high, crash. The 1st chart (top left) is the Dow leading up to the massive crash in 1929 and the Great Depression. I'd like to point out that 1905-1920 was a sideways secular bear market before the run up (more on that in a few). I have noted years on the chart (all of them that aren't present day) where the chart seems to correlate with today's. The 2nd chart on the top right is Silver -0.20% . After that last spike, from high to low, it seen a crash slightly above 72% occur. The 3rd chart (bottom right) is the Dow back in 1959-1966. This was leading into a 16 year sideways secular bear market (like the one from 1905-1920) that was from 1966-1982. The bottom left is the final chart, which is present day. I wanted to point out that a secular bear market predated the crash in '29, and we had a secular bear market most recently (66-82) and haven't had one since. Could a crash be around the corner? If history tells us anything - that or a secular bear market seem to be coming sooner than later.
Dow Futures Elliott Wave View: Reacting Higher From Blue BoxHello Traders,
Dow Futures short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally from 6/28/2018 low cycle to 25572 high on 7/27/2018 peak ended red wave 1. The internals of that rally higher took place as an impulse structure with sub-division of 5 waves structure in each leg higher. Down from there, the index corrected the 6/28/2018 cycle in 3 swings pullback & ended red wave 2 at 25086 low.
The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave Zigzag correction with the sub-division of 5-3-5 structure in black wave ((a)), ((b)), ((c)). Down from 7/27 peak, the decline to 25264 low ended black wave ((a)) in 5 waves structure. From there, the rally to 25486 high ended black wave ((b)) and the subsequent move lower to 25086 low ended black wave ((c)) of 2 in 5 waves structure. Red wave 2 ended within the 25174 – 25100 area, which is 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension of ((a))-((b)), as indicated by the blue box.
Up from 25086, the index is reacting higher in 3 swings so far and longs from blue box area should be risk-free (stop loss at break even) already. The right side tag, combined with the blue box, help to identify the right trading strategy. Near-term, as far as dips remain above 25086 low, the right side of the market remains to the upside. Expect the Index to resume the next extension higher in red wave 3. We don’t like selling it.
Sell DJIAGap, and gap to retest with red outside/engulfing
No new high, down trend should be confirmed on lower time frames
Overvalued confirmed 2x on stoch
MACD showing divergence
Ichi slow/fast line flatline, low volatility after a pump
Sellers should be taking profits after weekly gains
S/L 25590
T/P 24948
T/P 24785
R/R 3.33
R/R 4.58
Profit Trading~
Diamond pattern should break soonDiamond pattern nearing completion. A break in price down could mean a half staff pattern, with the second leg the same length of the first. Yearly and monthly pivots below provide strong support and price target at 23100 area.
Break up could be a price trend reversal to the monthly R1 at 25100.
Dji Predictable? Snoozefest for now. This is just because I got tired of hearing people say, "The dji went down today and calling it unexpected and all that.
Simple line chart, every line after the dip was there before it was hit, so I'd say that right now, as an index, it is pretty predictable.
zZzZzZ fest
Though I must say, as times goes on and especially now, It seems as if something even more and more interesting will happen. I said the same thing to my friend right before this last drop. Lets just hope the interesting event will be good and not bad.
Ima still stick with the concept that good and bad news just means look for where it will drop or stop next.
Fib is from 15.5k to 26.6k
I still think the .75 can be used on this go around as the 2nd drop in this smaller trend went quite a bit under it.
But because it seems arguable if it has been used before, I think it will be interesting to see what happens. Also the lack of support if we drop almost means for certain we have to go down to the .618, but even though the .618 is the .618, There seems to be no support and a drop to 21.6k seems likely with 20.5k-21k looking like the only really strong resistance.
Anyway take care yall.
-KTown
Rain in July?Good day folks,
We may have a channel showing up, however we still have a day or two to see if the market continues to rise or reverse down. This makes this analysis very speculative, but when a channel shows up, the price action usually goes from an extreme to another. If it continues to rise, then it is logic that we reach the resistance line of the channel before reversing, which gives us another few hundred points of upside.
My title: if this channel hold, we may reach Jan high somewhere in July, and we should face a lot of resistance and/or a corrective wave. Let's see, still a long way to go.
My Targets
Wave 3: 255 to 258;
Wave 4: 250 to 245;
Wave 5: 263 to 266.
Cheers,
A Big cloud...As you can see the price dji is being maintained in this side channel formed temporarily, the price rises again and
try to crash and go through the cloud, this is a very powerful resistance
that is costing a lot of work to pass through, possibly if training turns
the price again to low, but within the parameters of tolerance of the price.
but finally after gaining ground little by little the price wants to return its march
Note that this is simply an idea of price behavior
nothing more .
DJI Daily Chart - 20th AprilDJI had a slight pullback yesterday but is still above the 50MA so we are still optimistic to see a short term bull run
We would suggest to avoid going into positions as earning season can be quite volatile
The market will have big swings depending on the earning results of the major companies
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t.me
DJI: Rejection of MSM PROPAGANDA , Almost time for a ShortKeeping it simple
1. Rising Wedge TVC:DJI
2. Getting Rejected at a key level multiple Times
3. While its above the 20 MA , need to see if it breaks the Wedge downwards
4. Popular propaganda on CNBC that Bank results will lift the market goes in the air...
Short on Confirmation of Wedge Break and Below 20 MA on 4 Hr . Target remains Same At 22800