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Djianalysis

Head Shoulder Ratio: Worst-Case Scenario? Let's Hope So (Part 2)So I have been tracking this pretty extensively, just haven't posted my findings (which up to this point have been spot on) until now... Why? Because this is such a far fetched scenario, I feel in the rare event this does happen - if I don't have some kind of proof that I caught it before-hand no one will believe me lol... Now, this is part 2 which is the 30 minute chart, to show the details a bit more... The weekly shows a big nasty bearish engulfing candle, which means these last 2 weeks were simply a giant bear flag... I am expected the next trendline to be tested next, possibly another bear flag, and the testing the trend line at the bottom... Why that specific spot? Well that's where it gets interesting... The peak of the market formed a head and shoulders pattern which was abruptly followed by a very nasty spill... This current bear flag looks to be setting up a very similar head and shoulders as well... So, just playing around, I measured the top HnS from low to high, then did the same with the current pattern (actually the low from March 1st) to get a size ratio... I then took this ratio, measured the 1st fall (to the lowest low, not the 1st low) and applied it to see where it would show another possible fall based on the size of the bigger pattern... Well, to my surprise it landed square on top of the 2015/2016 market correction - which is a very likely support area if it were to fall... Not only that, but it is also right where a major trend line from the bottom of the last bear market in 2009 is sitting at... Is this a coincidence? If so, it's a pretty big one lol... Even with the current low on March 2nd we are still placed right there in the same general support area... I think Monday will see a pop and fade before the reversal and what I expect to be a monster plunge to 22k... So needless to say - I will definitely be purchasing put options into the spike of the right shoulder...
DJ:DJIShort
by J-Streak
Head Shoulder Ratio: Worst-Case Scenario? Let's Hope So (Part 1)So I have been tracking this pretty extensively, just haven't posted my findings (which up to this point have been spot on) until now... Why? Because this is such a far fetched scenario, I feel in the rare event this does happen - if I don't have some kind of proof that I caught it before-hand no one will believe me lol... Now, this is part 1 which is the weekly chart... The weekly shows a big nasty bearish engulfing candle, which means these last 2 weeks were simply a giant bear flag... I am expected the next trendline to be tested next, possibly another bear flag, and the testing the trend line at the bottom... Why that specific spot? Well that's where it gets interesting... The peak of the market formed a head and shoulders pattern which was abruptly followed by a very nasty spill... This current bear flag looks to be setting up a very similar head and shoulders as well... So, just playing around, I measured the top HnS from low to high, then did the same with the current pattern (actually the low from March 1st) to get a size ratio... I then took this ratio, measured the 1st fall (to the lowest low, not the 1st low) and applied it to see where it would show another possible fall based on the size of the bigger pattern... Well, to my surprise it landed square on top of the 2015/2016 market correction - which is a very likely support area if it were to fall... Not only that, but it is also right where a major trend line from the bottom of the last bear market in 2009 is sitting at... Is this a coincidence? If so, it's a pretty big one lol... Even with the current low on March 2nd we are still placed right there in the same general support area... I think Monday will see a pop and fade before the reversal and what I expect to be a monster plunge to 22k... So needless to say - I will definitely be purchasing put options into the spike of the right shoulder...
DJ:DJIShort
by J-Streak
2
Due for a stock crash or will we be reaching a new high?Blue parallel channel: main price trend channel Purple parallel channel: secondary price trend channel I know I'm missing some crises here and there, but I figured I only need to mark some. The correlations I am able to make is that a high RSI along with an unsavory reason leads to big trouble. Great Depression: credit **(Edit: I forgot to add that the huge run up in the 1920s leading up to the Great Depression was due to credit and an economic boom after WWI)** Asian/Japanese Economic Bubble: credit and overvaluation of assets Internet Bubble: money being poured into fundamentally lacking ideas/companies Housing Market Crash: predatory lending and falsified documentation leading to investors taking on loans they couldn't afford 2018 Crash or Moon? I'm welcome to contrarian discussion. What i'm most interested in right now is why the stock market has been on such a bullish run since the recession. RSI and OBV looking down. Personally I believe the stock market is going for a correction after its run. I'd be sure to change my mind once I figure out why we ran up so quickly.
DJ:DJI
by NeoButane
The Dow's run to 265 offers a great opportunity for fast cashAfter breaking the symmetrical triangle last Friday, the DJIA's run to 26500 looks likely. I expect a very good next two week; starting with a price target this week of 26000, and 26500 next week. It is fair to say that the Dow could face a lot of pressure from its January high. Therefore I believe that the price will be dancing between 265-266 for a week before a break-out occurs, and then, I think that a consolidation will follow. I will be trading it this way: 1. I will buy DIA Calls with a Mar 16 Exp and sell them when the index reach 26500; 2. I will wait for a drop to hopefully 26000 before re-entering the trade but this time with a Apr 20 Exp. My target for this one will be 27000. I will wait a bit after that to see where the market is heading. Good trading everyone!
TVC:DJILong
by tipere445
DowJones - Are We In a Recession?Hello everyone, I am very hesitant re; sharing this idea. I do hope by putting this out there, I will gain valuable feedbacks & perspectives that I otherwise would not have had. I am fully aware that this is a bold statement to make: we have a recession coming up soon. In fact, I think the recession has already begun. ----- This is a 2 week chart of DJI. It is impossible to fit everything in one screenshot- to keep the chart simple, I will be posting more detailed analysis in the updates below. I will first share the conclusion of my analysis, and the rest of the post will be me justifying this idea. - Conclusion: It is my opinion that we have finished the 3rd wave of the cycle and we are now in the fourth wave. The start of this cycle dates back to the autumn of year 1974. That is 44 years ago – it has been almost half a century. From my analysis, this 3rd wave of the cycle began after the great recession of 2008, which would be the 2rd (corrective wave) of the first wave of the cycle. - The evidence that has led me to believe the third cycle has ended are the following: 1. I counted out all the primary waves (in black) and their sub waves- intermediate waves(in blue). 2. For the minor subwaves of the intermediate waves of the 3rd and 5th primary waves of the third cycle, I labelled them in the enclosed boxes (in black). 3. The Fibonacci retracements of the first and third intermediate waves of the third primary wave in the third cycle are in magenta. 4. The Fibonacci retracements of the first and third primary waves of the third cycle are in black. 5. The price level $26616.7 (high of 2018) is in confluence with the primary wave 1-2 (of the third cycle) 2.618 Fibonacci extension – marked in red on the right. 6. Continuing the previous point, the price level $26616.7 is also in confluence with the primary wave 3-4 (of the third cycle) 1.618 Fibonacci extension level- marked with black on the right. 7. Continuing points (6),(7) – the price level $26616.7 is in confluence with the wave 1-2 1.618 Fibonacci extension of THE WHOLE CYCLE. Marked in green on the left. This 1-2 cycle extension dates back to price level of $570 in late 1974 and the high of $14198.1 dating back to mid 2007; the extension starts at $6470, which is the low formed by the end of the great recession in 2009. This low in 2009 marks the end of the second wave of the cycle. 8. Now the price has shown reversal signals from this Fibonacci clusters formed by 3 critical Fibonacci extensions, I have enough reason to assume the third wave of the whole cycle has ended. This third wave has taken almost ten years to complete. 9. For these reasons, I believe we are entering the fourth wave of the cycle. Entering a corrective wave, that is, a move to the down side, might be the start of a recession. 10. The Fibonacci retracement of the third wave of the cycle is marked in blue on the right. An a:b = 1:1 extension at the daily timeframe will give us a retracement to the .236 level. Please do read through all the points and share your opinions. I do not know where this correction will take us. It might just be a small one – to the .236 Fibonacci retracement level of the third wave of the cycle. Or it could be all the way to around $14166 – at the .618 retracement level. Only time will tell. What would make this idea wrong? A close above the previous high of $26616.7 – In that case, we will have to re-count. AL. A historic moment?
TVC:DJI
by someone514
2
DJIA: REDRUMYesterday was a buying opportunity. We needed to see follow-through today, which did not materialize. This rejection compounds the bearish reversal. What happens next? ...think of the elevator scene in The Shining for a clue. We are about to witness the sacrifice of 2017's gains, in a very short space of time. Make no mistake; it will be bloody, fast, but it is not the high of the market. January is A high, not THE high, and this move will be an epic false move. The only technical analysis I have marked on the monthly chart is the 2017 low. Watch this level. Institutions take note of yearly highs and lows, and a penetration of this level will flip investors bearish - which will provide fuel for the next bullish leg. In the meantime, my strategy is simple: SELL ALL BOUNCES AND BREAKS
DJ:DJIShort
by TheRealPeaches
DJI (CBOT)B&B Pattern. Trade setup with Buy Limit position (EP) at 25387 Stop Loss (SL) at 24531 and Take Profit (TP) at 26186. Money Management I have 22,800 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 10% of the port which is 2,280 USD. I will Trade MINI DOW JONES ($5) Position Sizing 1 Tick = $5 1 Contract size need IM = $3,685 (I can open not more than $22,800 / $3,685 = 6.187 Cons) It is 856 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 856 * $5 = $4,280 To lose 2,280 USD I need to open 2,280 / 4,280 = 0.53 Con Then I will put 1 Contract If I win, I will gain (26186 - 25387) * $5 * 1 Con = $3,995 P.S. I will not trade this position because stop loss is beyond my acceptable number
DJ:DJILong
by SuppasitWechprasit
Dow Jones Index TargetI expect the Dow Jones within a week or so to be hitting a $26225 price point. I definitely say it is bullish and potential resistance could be near. However, the correlations have been seemingly positive and as an index of the general market, it looks like a good position. As a HODL it looks to be a fairly conservative investment strategy to be in your portfolio. Still obviously you got that risk, but I would not withdraw to quick. You can always invest in many different index funds or the S & P as well as just the top performing stocks. Overall, it is about mitigating risk and maximizing returns.
DJ:DJIShort
by gamer456148