This chart should scare the hell out of you.Doing a lot of research lately on the crash of 1929, and how that played out. In the first leg down (similar to where I think we are today), the market fell 40-50% in 3 months, similar to now.
Then we had a snapback bear market rally, regaining 50% back of what was lost, which keep in mind means you only got back 20-25%. This took 5-6 months to play out, and I believe this will be the case starting in May/June and ending around October/November right before the election.
If things play out as I think history has already fortold, this would be a sweeping victory for Biden which will usher in an era of socialist policies, and continue to support a further burning of stock markets until ~2022.
So enjoy that snapback rally in the summer months and then if things start looking bad again, Get the F*** Out, or go short.
BECAUSE, after the initial 5-6 month snapback rally of 1930, the market rolled over for another -85% decline!...
I truly believe that there will be no safe place if this plays out.
Commodities will go down, real estate will go down, crypto will burst and the few names that remain after will be like true gold, silver, platinum and such.
This all being said, I'm not a fortune teller and this is not financial/investing advice. What this is is some perspective.
And it makes sense if you think about our current demographics, war timelines, wealth inequality, inflated asset prices, and a bubble almost anywhere you want to look.
Djiaprediction
Dow Jones SelloffEven with the bounce that Dow Jones is experiencing, the general trend is still bearish and will likely be for a while as long as Covid-19 is around. At the end of trading hours buying spiked, hinting towards a sharp selloff, as has happened the last 4 times it has spiked last minute. On top of this, the 10 day RSI has just reached 70, suggesting it is now in the recovery's overbought territory. Although the stimulus bill is a much bigger deal, the market has not yet compensated for the impact of the record unemployment rate. If it goes up tomorrow, I believe it will be a very risky bet to hold on during the weekend since the 3 largest percentage losses have happened on Mondays.
Rally on DJI (Dow Jones)The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 11% to clock its biggest advance since 1933. Dow Jones futures jumped Tuesday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, amid optimism about a massive stimulus deal.
New support at 20,000 for DJI. Not sure how long this rally will last because its basically akin to printing money to keep the economy going. I feel the fundamentals are weakening but the artificial support might keep the market alive for a short period of time but long term wise, might be harmful for the economy. Just my 2 cents. hmm..
DJI MACRO VIEW, M, 37% Consolidation Coming From Bull Decade!1. Monthly Chart shows the same RSI oversold conditions as the high in 2007 time-frame (79 RSI) that led to the 2008 downturn.
a. Current chart shows the same oversold conditions in 2018 (80 RSI) which are leading to the now late 2018/19 downturn.
b. Retracement was roughly 50% during this past market collapse because support were the 2002/03 levels and RSI of 17.9 indicated severe oversold conditions.
2. After 2008 consolidation the new support level were the lows of 2002/03. (Big Psychological Factor for Traders to Re-enter Bearish Market)
a. Future chart shows the new support level will be the 2015/16 support.
b. Retracement lines up with the Fibonacci retracement of roughly 38% where support from the 2015/16 levels will prevent the market from correcting to the 50% levels of 2008.
The time-span was 518 days during the 2007/2008 retracement.....which led me to conclude that by January of 2020 the market should begin recovering after finding the 2015/16 support and showing oversold RSI conditions.
Mere speculation of course since past performance does not reflect future results, so please don't bet your life savings.
DJI 30 min Chart - Sell to reach 2nd targetbeside March 10 posts
now we Sell US30 30 min - Head and shoulder pattern
expect to reach 2nd target 18000 - 17826.
DJI Stock - A global market collapse 2020I am not an expert TA or Analyst. These messages are based on my own knowledge, research, and learnings. I may be wrong or I may be right but this is how I see the current market during a crisis within a crisis (financial & health crisis).
The sentiment speaks what the chart is telling us and currently, we are in FEAR & UNCERTAINTY or the people finally awake how our old financial system work. Let us see what really is 2020 for each one of us!
Stay safe, protect your assets and be smart! :)
DOW Outlook 26 FEB 20See chart for key pivot points for todays trading day.
futures are up small at this moment, if we cannot obtain the pivots shown and we roll over into yesterdays low more volatility is to come, looking for sell setups
on the other hand if we can penitrate the pivot lines we could see a relief rally towards yesterdays open levels
Trading Pathways Analysis of DJI H4 Chart
The outlined white arrow pathway is the predicted pathway that the DJI H4 will follow in the coming days or weeks. Using my unique charting methods, I have been able to arrive at HIGH PROBABILITY turning points where DJI H4 will turn.
PLEASE NOTE THE ABOVE ANALYSIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE NOT DIRECT INSTRUCTIONS TO TRADE AND ANY LOSS INCURRED BY FOLLOWING THIS ANALYSIS IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Eiseprod of Trading Pathways
DJI Future Map - A Correction is Imminent$DJI has been on an absolutely MASSIVE bull run since the collapse back in 2008-2009; a decade ago!
We all know what goes up must come down though and the DJI is due for another +50% correction.
This chart is on the Weekly. I usually prefer using the Day charts however I noticed some interesting trends that I hoped to share.
2008-2009
-The correction in 2008 was 55% from top to bottom
-The RSI at the peak was slightly Overbought so a little surprised the price tanked -7784 points
2016-2018
-The 1.618 ratio (19008) took 8 years to be hit
-The 2.618 ratio (26793) took 1 year, 2016-2017
-The RSI at the 2.618 level was 95 – Super Overbought which made sense to see the beginning of a huge correction however that wasn’t the case. A double top formed at the same level and then -
the price corrected roughly -5000 points, -18-20% towards the end of 2018-2019
-This correction pinged off possibly the 1.702-1.786 level (21712) from the first FIB (08-09)
-The RSI was once again just slightly Overbought at 70-72 level
-Price has continued to climb due to various political measures; volatility between Trump and China (Tariffs) as well as the beginning of the Impeachment talk
-The FED also injecting the ‘NOT QE’ funds into the REPO arena has stimulated the economy as well
-The current RSI is at 67 so it’s getting once again very close to those Overbought levels that haven’t been met since a year ago when the correction occurred
-Trump officially Impeached on December 18th and the $DJI keeps pumping
Beyond
I can’t predict the future but based on my FIB mapping, I’m expecting the possibility of a massive recession/depression type correction to be made when the 3.618 (34577) level is met. This is based on the FIB calculation from 2008-2009.
The current movements are lining up quite nicely with this FIB chart and the new FIB chart if calculated from the future ‘top’ indicates that we will see a re-tracement to the 0.618 (26627) level and in my opinion ultimately back down to the 1.618 (13761) level where I believe a good amount of resistance will be met. This is a negative 60% drop!
In the event 2.618 (896) level is met (worse than a Depression) that’s a negative 96% dump. I dunno if this will happen, but my guess is that we'll see this drop in-between 2021-2022.
DOW JONES NOT REVERSING YET: WEEKLYThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is still looking like a strong bull on the weekly timeframe. The candles have not yet formed a reversal pattern, there is still potential for the upside after breaking the previous top. On a weekly candle once a pin bar formation of a strong reversal Doji forms then we can talk about the potential downside. For now, the target is still the top of the channel at 28650-28700.
There is a potential for a slight retrace but price should not get much below 27300 on a long-term perspective. That will ensure structure holds well bullish. Each failure off the top of the channel was followed by a 6.60% retrace, for that to occur price has to move up to the top of the channel, IF there is a 6+% retrace, the channel and bull structure is broken and the move lower can price the Dow Jones into correction territory.
DJIA Stay In A Risk-On MoodUS equities rallied last week to new record levels with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaching 28,000 for the first time. Soft economic data, Trump’s impeachment hearing, Hong Kong protests, and Middle East unrest were all considered secondary factors in investment decisions.
Today European stocks kick off a new week a little flat, with more talks between the US and China failing to excite investors in the way they have been recently.
So, what now? With the economic calendar being empty to during the start of the week, any trade updates will dictate the mood in markets. As things around the trade talks stand optimistic, the Dow is set to hold above the 28K level at the open. The market is trading on the strong side of an uptrending Gann angle from the 25,743 main bottom on October 3. Look for the uptrend to continue as long as the Dow futures contract holds above this angle.
The 55-day moving average has risen to 26,972 and could provide support if the price begin to fall. A move through 27,400 will shift momentum to the downside. This will not mean the main trend has changed, but it will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. While the nearest main bottom 25,743 hold, the uptrend is safe for now.
Thoughts on the Dow Jones Heading Into the WeekendHope you guys enjoy the video, be sure to leave a like, comment, and follow for future posts!
The Dow Jones was down about 600 points today as President Trump continued his sparring session with China, and increased tariffs yet again. We can see a dangerous M forming on our 1 day time frame and I indicated crucial support levels with the fibonacci as well as the dashed red line. If those levels do not hold, we will see the Dow take a plummet in the next week, and the talk of a recession may become a reality. Looking at our shorter time frame, we can see the Megalodon timer giving us a green. I hope that this is a sign that buyers will hold the support levels for the Dow Jones, and hopefully the US and China can come to an agreement soon, so that we may continue our bullish run in the stock market!
Our most powerful indicator called the bottom on Bitcoin! Check it out here!