Djt
GME new bullish momentum LONGGME on a weekly chart has clear the chop zone on that indicator and is now above the POC
line of the long -term volume profile indicating that bullish momentum is greater than bearish
momentum. I will take a long trade here targeting the pivot highs of 2022 for three quarters
of the trade and the base of the high pivots of 2021 for the reminder. 21.7 below the POC
line will be the initial stop loss to be moved to break even upon a price rise of 10% from the
entry and then changed to a trailing loss of 10% upon another 10% price rise. I believe that
GME is heavily shorted; Accordingly, a short squeeze could add to the push higher.
PINS - this social media company making a comeback LONGPINS on the weekly chart hit the ATH during the COVID era and then faded in a one-year trend
down until summer 2022. It has now reversed and is slowly trending up. The Price Volume Trend
indicator shows the reversal as starting July 29, 2022 with a correction in May 2023. I see this
as a safe swing trade targeting 50 and 65 as drawn by black horizontals. They are the levels of
a neckline of the H & S at the ATH and a small pivot in October 2021. These are roughly 20% and
50% profit at those two take profit levels.
AMC pumps price and volume into fair value zone LONGAMC is on a 4H chart with a set of VWAP bands overlaid In the past two trading sessions price
and volume have pumps and so also the PV Trend indicator. There is no fundamental
footprint on this move. it is a pure meme much like a similar move of GME. I will go long
here hoping to ride the momentum and capture profit. I will set a stop loss fo 10% n
recognition of the volatilit The final target is the $ 120 range pivots of April and
August 202. The initial target is the $35 range of the ranging zone of August 2023. Upon
reaching the first target I will cut the position to 50% for the leg higher. I will cut the position
if momentum fades especially if the volume fades with it. This will be interesting at the least
and highly profitable at the very most.
Trump Media Tumble After Ex-President Found Guilty in NYCTrump Media & Technology Group, ( DJ:DJT ) the owner of Truth Social, experienced a slump in shares after former President Donald Trump was found guilty in his hush money trial. A New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through hush money payments to a porn actor who said the two had sex. Trump Media's stock fell about 9% in after-hours trading on Thursday as news of the verdict emerged. The stock, which trades under the ticket symbol "DJT," has been extremely volatile since its debut in late March and has been prone to ricochet from highs to lows as small-pocketed investors attempt to catch an upward momentum swing at the right time.
Trump Media ( DJ:DJT ) reported that it lost more than $300 million last quarter, according to its first earnings report as a publicly traded company. For the three-month period that ended March 31, the company posted a loss of $327.6 million, which it said included $311 million in non-cash expenses related to its merger with a company called Digital World Acquisition Corp.
Trump Media & Technology ( DJ:DJT ) fired an auditor this month that federal regulators recently charged with "massive fraud." The media company dismissed BF Borgers as its independent public accounting firm on May 3, delaying the filing of its quarterly earnings report. Trump was charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records at his company in connection with an alleged scheme to hide potentially embarrassing stories about him during his 2016 Republican presidential election campaign.
The almost 10% stock price drop amounts to a $330 million decline in the value of Trump's shares. Trump's net worth was $7.5 billion Friday morning, making him the 356th-richest person on the planet. A majority of Trump's fortune stems from his $5.6 billion stake in Trump Media, holdings that were worth $5.9 billion as of Thursday.
Trump Media ( DJ:DJT ) went public in March via a reverse merger with a blank-check company after two years of regulatory and legal hiccups. In its two months on the public markets, Trump Media has performed shockingly well, with its after-hours share price still about 25% higher than its blank-check predecessor's stock traded at before the merger's completion.
The stock is down from its All-time high of $80 now trading at $48.90 down by 5.5%.
Trump Media Stock Drops 8.27% After Reporting $327.6M Q1 LossTrump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ) stock fell 8.27% after reporting a $327.6 million Q1 loss, marking its first quarterly report as a public company. The company, which operates the social media network Truth Social, generated just $770,500 in revenue for the first quarter, with a net loss of $210.3 million in the first quarter of 2023. The company stated that it is more focused on developing new products as a young company like a streaming TV platform rather than quarterly revenue.
In addition to the Truth Social platform, TMTG plans to introduce new products like streaming platforms for Apple and Android devices, as well as a streaming app for TVs. The company has recently signed contracts with a data center and hardware provider as it progresses toward launching its streaming venture.
The company initially announced plans to go public in October 2021, planning to merge with special purpose acquisition company Digital World Acquisition Corp. After SEC investigations delayed those plans, the merger was completed in March 2024, paving the way for TMTG to debut on the Nasdaq under the stock ticker "DJT," Trump's initials.
TMTG's stock has been on a roller coaster of highs and lows in its first two months as a public company, with a peak on March 26 at $79.38 and a final session 16% higher at $57.99. The company reported a $58.2 million loss for fiscal 2023 and filed to issue millions of new shares, sending the stock down to $22.55 on April 16. However, shares rebounded after the company told regulators it believed "naked" short selling of its stock was impacting its price.
Trump Media Investor Guilty of Insider TradingA financial executive, Bruce Garelick, has been convicted of enabling his boss and others to make over $22 million illegally by trading off his tips ahead of the public announcement that an acquisition firm was taking former President Donald Trump's media company public. Garelick was convicted of tipping others in 2021 to news that the special purpose acquisition company, Digital World Acquisition Corp., was merging with Trump Media & Technology Group. Garelick sat on DWAC's board. His co-defendants pleaded guilty before trial, admitting to making over $22 million illegally.
The indictment against the men did not implicate Trump or Trump Media & Technology Group, ( NASDAQ:DJT ) which owns his Truth Social platform and began trading on the NASDAQ stock market on March 26. Garelick, former chief investment officer of New York-based venture capital firm Rocket One Capital LLC, was convicted of insider trading charges and is scheduled to be sentenced in July.
Garelick insisted that he did not possess any secrets about the potential merger when he bought securities in DWAC, which eventually enabled him to earn nearly $50,000 in profits.
🚨$DJT: It's Not Over Part 2! Update! Hey everyone,
As mentioned earlier, DJ:DJT showed potential for a bullish move with a weekly crossover above the monthly, signaling strength in the coming weeks/month. On Friday, DJT achieved the weekly crossover over the monthly for the first time! When MTTSA indicators crossover to the upside, it indicates a significant price acceleration. For instance, in January, when the hourly crossed over the monthly, the price surged by approximately 100%. Subsequently, when the daily followed suit, the stock experienced another robust uptrend.
Our initial price target stands at $57. We anticipate some resistance at this level, although the stock has already breached the 0.236 and tested the 0.382 levels. A decisive breakthrough from here would likely lead to tests of the 0.5 and eventually the 0.618 levels.
It's worth noting that there's a gap to be filled around $61.
Metric Pro indicator is suggesting that liquidity is very good and price will continue to the upside.
In conclusion, we're keeping an eye on the daily for support, with significant support levels at the weekly and monthly. It turns out, the markets don't really care about your thoughts and feelings because the algorithm is pointing a bullish run very soon. Stay tuned!
DJT Point of Control Holds SupportIf I was oblivious to what NASDAQ:DJT was and someone asked me to look at it on stream I would say it was messy but a buy.
Price has recaptured the Volume Profile Point of Control, tested it as Support twice, and is rising.
I consider the stock an election year fun ticket more than an investment. One could play it as a proxy for poll numbers from now until November.
DJT to the downside in the shorterm???Watching DJT to the downside short term. DJT has just retraced to the Golden Zone and bounced of the 618
SEC Charges Trump Media Auditor With Massive Fraud Stock Slides The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has charged former president Donald Trump's auditor, Benjamin Borgers, with a "massive fraud" and a "sham audit mill." The SEC alleges that Borgers did not properly prepare and maintain audit documentation, fabricated audit planning meetings, and passed off previous audits for the current audit period. The SEC claims that Borgers and his firm were responsible for one of the largest wholesale failures by gatekeepers in financial markets, putting investors and markets at risk and undermining trust and confidence in markets.
Of 369 BF Borgers clients whose filings from January 2021 through June 2023 incorporated BF Borgers' audits and reviews, at least 75% incorporated audits that did not comply with the SEC's rules. The company acted for Trump Media ( NASDAQ:DJT ) during the period of the SEC's complaint. In late March, Trump Media merged with a publicly traded shell company, Digital World Acquisition Corp, in a deal that valued the minnow social network at close to $8bn. The company now trades under the ticker symbol "DJT", using Trump's initials.
Trump Media's shares ( NASDAQ:DJT ) have fallen sharply since their debut but have continued to significantly boost the former president's wealth. The company is now valued at more than $6.5bn, with Trump as the company's largest shareholder and recently qualified for a bonus for the company's share performance that boosted the paper value of his stake to $3.7bn.
🚨$DJT: It's Not Over Yet! 🚀🚀🚀Hi everyone,
Despite a significant drop of 21% today, our indicators suggest the downtrend might not persist. A rebound above the daily level could signal a bullish trend, potentially leading to a weekly cross above the monthly. This could aim the price towards the $63 mark, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. Conversely, if the price dips below the daily level, the monthly level could offer support. Let's see where this goes in the next few weeks.
Good luck!
Trump Set to Receive Bonus Worth $1.2Bn for $DJT PerformanceFormer President Donald Trump to receive a staggering $1.2 billion bonus, courtesy of the performance of his social media venture, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). Despite the tumultuous journey of $TMTG's stock value, Trump stands to benefit substantially from an "earn-out" windfall, underscoring the complexities of his post-presidential financial landscape.
The bonus, predicated on TMTG's shares maintaining a threshold value of $17.50 for a specified period, catapults the paper value of Trump's stake in the company to a staggering $3.7 billion. This windfall comes at a crucial juncture for Trump, as he grapples with mounting legal challenges and substantial financial liabilities stemming from civil lawsuits.
However, TMTG's stock performance has been far from steady, mirroring the tumultuous nature of Trump's post-presidential endeavors. Despite an initial surge following its debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange, TMTG's stock value has experienced sharp declines, punctuated by bouts of volatility and speculation.
The company's CEO, Devin Nunes, has hinted at potential market manipulation by short sellers, further adding to the intricacies of TMTG's stock saga. Additionally, political scrutiny looms large over TMTG, with allegations of influence peddling and financial backers drawing the attention of lawmakers and regulatory bodies.
Amidst this backdrop, Truth Social, TMTG's flagship platform, has emerged as a focal point for Trump's communication with his supporters. Despite its relatively modest user base compared to established social networks, Truth Social has carved out a niche within the right-wing digital sphere, amplifying Trump's voice and agenda.
As Trump navigates the complexities of his legal battles, including a landmark criminal trial, the financial windfall from TMTG serves as a testament to the intertwined nature of politics, media, and finance in the modern era. With each fluctuation in TMTG's stock value, Trump's fortunes wax and wane, reflecting the broader narrative of his post-presidential legacy.
As the saga of Trump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ) continues to unfold, one thing remains certain: amidst the turbulence of the market and the corridors of power, the intersection of politics and finance continues to shape the trajectory of one of America's most polarizing figures.
Trump Media & Technology Group ($DJT) Rose Over 9.61Shares of Donald Trump's media and technology company, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O), rose over 9.61% on Friday after it asked the Nasdaq exchange to help prevent alleged market manipulation in its shares by so-called "naked" short sellers. The company disclosed this in a Friday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In the letter to Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman, Trump Media CEO and former Congressman Devin Nunes suggested that the "naked" short-selling practice was to blame for the highly volatile nature of the company's shares. Short selling involves borrowing a stock to sell it on the expectation that the price will fall, then repurchasing the shares and pocketing the difference. "Naked" short-selling, which is generally illegal in the United States, involves selling shares without first borrowing them or determining they can be borrowed, creating the risk that the seller may not be able to deliver the shares.
Trump Media shares have been volatile and, in recent days, have hovered at nearly half their March 26 debut closing price of $57.99. "Reports indicate that, as of April 3, 2024, NASDAQ:DJT was 'by far' the most expensive U.S. stock to short," Nunes said in the letter, citing a CNBC report from April 3. He did not provide evidence of naked short-selling but noted that as of April 17, DJT was on Nasdaq's Reg SHO threshold list, which he said is "indicative of unlawful trading activity."
The threshold list is comprised of securities that have failed to clear for five consecutive settlement days, which can indicate naked short-selling or administrative or technical issues. Nunes did not accuse any specific firms or individuals of naked short-selling but noted that "data made available to us indicate that just four market participants have been responsible for over 60% of the extraordinary volume of NASDAQ:DJT shares traded: Citadel Securities, Virtu Americas, G1 Execution Services, and Jane Street Capital."
DJT Dead Below $32 | Bullish Above $32Unbiased scenarios for DJT media of Truth Social, based on simple conditions of holding or losing a neckline at 32 bucks.
Below $32 = Bearish:
A weekly close below $32 that isn't immediately recovered in the following week likely means it is headed further down towards 12.50. There is an unfilled gap around ~17.50-18.50, so at the very least it could revisit that area.
Above $32 = Bullish:
Should the weekly remain above $32 instead, expect to see it revisit $82 with an eventual weekly close near that level, and then continuation up towards $132
Best of luck!
Trump Media's Truth Social Sink Amidst Share Registration FilingFormer President Donald Trump's foray into social media, Truth Social ( NASDAQ:DJT ), faced a significant setback as its parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., ( NASDAQ:DJT ) registered shares for potential resale. This move sent shockwaves through the market, with the company's stock plunging by as much as 20%.
The registration includes shares held by insiders and those linked to warrants, marking the first step towards allowing Trump and other insiders to potentially capitalize on their stakes in the company. With as many as 146 million common shares and 21 million shares issuable upon warrant exercise now registered, investors are closely monitoring the situation.
The impact was not limited to common shares alone; warrants, which are tied to the stock and allow holders to exchange them for shares, also experienced a significant downturn, dropping by 12%.
While such filings are customary for blank-check deals like Trump Media's, completed last month to take the company public, the move has raised concerns among investors. However, it's important to note that the filing does not necessarily mean an immediate sale is imminent, nor does it guarantee future sales.
Technical Outlook
Truth Social stock ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is trading below the 100-day Moving Average (MA) residing in the oversold region with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 27.12 indicating a strong bearish trend.
Donald Trump’s Stake in Truth Social Parent Drops to $3BillionIn a dramatic turn of events, shares of Donald Trump's media and technology ( NASDAQ:DJT )venture took a nosedive on Monday, plunging as much as 12% and exacerbating a relentless downtrend that has significantly diminished the value of his stake in the operator of Truth Social to a mere $2.9 billion.
Since its much-hyped debut in late March, Trump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ) has been mired in turmoil, with investors growing increasingly wary following the disclosure of substantial losses earlier this month. The company's once-promising trajectory has now been overshadowed by mounting financial woes, casting a shadow over its prospects and sparking a mass exodus of disillusioned shareholders.
Closing at $37.17 on Monday, the company's stock languished far below its record high of $79 attained during its debut, marking a staggering 40% decline since the onset of April. The grim downturn not only spells trouble for Trump's financial interests but also poses a significant setback to his potential windfall, as he contemplates leveraging his shares to fund his anticipated 2024 presidential campaign and legal expenses.
With Trump's stake in the company shrinking from approximately $6 billion just last month to a paltry $2.9 billion, the precipitous slide underscores the tumultuous journey of Trump Media & Technology Group in the unforgiving landscape of media and technology.
While Trump's dwindling fortunes may spell gloom for the former president, short-sellers are reveling in the chaos, reaping market-to-market profits amidst the stock's freefall. With a short interest of approximately 4.75 million shares, short-sellers have capitalized on the company's woes, albeit at a significant cost. Despite Monday's decline translating into a $16 million profit for those betting against the stock, short-sellers remain ensnared in substantial losses, down 69% for the year.
As Trump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ) grapples with its spiraling valuation and mounting investor skepticism, the company finds itself at a critical crossroads. With uncertainties looming over its ability to navigate the turbulent waters ahead, the fate of Truth Social's parent hangs in the balance, leaving stakeholders on edge and investors bracing for further volatility.
Trump Media & Technology Group ($DJT) Plummets by 21.47%The journey of Trump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ) took a turbulent turn as the social media venture witnessed a steep decline of 21.47% in its stock value following revelations of significant financial losses and ongoing legal disputes. Despite a high-profile public debut, NASDAQ:DJT finds itself grappling with mounting challenges that have cast a shadow over its future prospects.
Financial Struggles and Market Volatility:
Trump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ) disclosed a staggering loss of over $58 million in 2023, sending shockwaves through the investor community and triggering a sell-off. The initial surge in NASDAQ:DJT 's stock, driven by enthusiastic retail buyers, quickly reversed as the reality of financial setbacks emerged, leading to a sharp decline in share prices.
Implications for Trump and Shareholders:
While Donald Trump retains ownership of 78.75 million shares, potentially amounting to a significant windfall, the recent sell-off has eroded a substantial portion of its value. Legal restrictions prevent Trump from selling or borrowing against his shares for the next six months, adding another layer of complexity to the situation. Despite the downturn, DJT's market value still exceeds $6 billion, albeit significantly lower than its initial public offering (IPO) valuation.
Short Sellers and Market Dynamics:
Short sellers targeting NASDAQ:DJT witnessed a significant recovery on Monday, underscoring the heightened demand for shorting NASDAQ:DJT shares amidst financial uncertainties. However, the scarcity of borrow supply adds complexity to the short-selling landscape, reflecting the volatility and speculative nature of DJT's stock.
Financial Performance and Competitive Landscape:
DJT's financial struggles are further underscored by its modest revenue of $4.13 million in 2023, compared to competitor Reddit's $800 million. Additionally, Truth Social's relatively small user base poses a challenge in competing with established platforms, exacerbating DJT's uphill battle in the social media landscape.
Legal Battles and Uncertainties:
In addition to financial woes, NASDAQ:DJT faces legal disputes with co-founders Wesley Moss and Andrew Litinsky, adding another layer of complexity to its challenges. These legal battles compound the uncertainties surrounding DJT's prospects, highlighting the uphill battle it faces in establishing itself as a viable competitor in the social media arena.
Donald Trump’s Media Company Spikes 50% On Wall Street DebutIn a whirlwind of market activity, Donald Trump's media company, Trump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ), made its much-anticipated debut on Wall Street, sparking fervent investor interest and a flurry of speculation about the former president's latest venture.
Shares in Trump's media empire surged an astonishing 50% in early trading, as eager investors clamored for a piece of the action in the inaugural session of trading on the Nasdaq index. The company, trading under the ticker name NASDAQ:DJT —aptly representing the initials of its founder—saw its stock soar to remarkable heights, with Trump's majority stake valued at a staggering $5.9 billion.
The meteoric rise in Trump Media & Technology ( NASDAQ:DJT ) Group's stock price was fueled in part by news of Trump's success in securing a substantially reduced bond of $175 million in his ongoing civil fraud case—a development that injected newfound optimism into the company's prospects. However, the exuberant market response belied underlying concerns about the company's financial performance, with Truth Social, Trump's social media platform, reporting significant losses in its operations.
Analysts, while acknowledging the enthusiasm of Trump's supporters driving the stock's valuation, cautioned against overstating the company's underlying business prospects. Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital, characterized the valuation as "rich relative to its underlying fundamentals," suggesting that investor enthusiasm may be outpacing rational assessment of the company's true value.
The emergence of Trump Media & Technology Group ( NASDAQ:DJT ) comes on the heels of its merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp, a blank-check company, underscoring Trump's knack for leveraging strategic partnerships to propel his business endeavors. The use of the DJT ticker, a nostalgic nod to Trump's earlier ventures in the 1990s, adds a touch of familiarity to the company's Wall Street debut, evoking memories of Trump's foray into the hospitality and gaming industries.
Yet, amidst the jubilation surrounding Trump's resurgence in the business world, lingering legal challenges loom large, casting a shadow of uncertainty over his financial fortunes. Trump's ongoing legal battles, including the civil fraud case and a criminal hush money case, threaten to disrupt his plans for leveraging his newfound wealth from Trump Media & Technology Group.
Despite the jubilant mood among Trump's supporters, skepticism remains regarding the company's long-term viability and its potential impact on Trump's political aspirations. The success of Truth Social and Trump Media & Technology Group hinges not only on financial performance but also on the broader cultural and political landscape, where Trump's polarizing persona continues to command attention and controversy.
As Trump navigates the complexities of both the business and legal arenas, the fate of Trump Media & Technology Group hangs in the balance, poised between triumph and turmoil. While the company's soaring stock price may herald a new chapter in Trump's entrepreneurial journey, it also underscores the volatile intersection of politics, media, and finance in today's ever-evolving landscape.
In the corridors of power and the boardrooms of Wall Street, the saga of Trump Media & Technology Group unfolds—a compelling narrative of ambition, resilience, and the enduring allure of the Trump brand. Whether it emerges as a triumph or a tempest remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the world will be watching closely as the story unfolds.
U.S Equity Index’s Overview – A Repeating PatternU.S Equity Index’s Overview – A Repeating Pattern
The Bull Thesis – Ascending Triangles
The 200 day (blue line on each chart) is squeezing price up towards each red resistance line making each chart look like an ascending triangle (evident on every chart). With the 200 day as underside support for price and the 200 day sloping upwards, things remain positive.
The Bear Caution – Throw overs, Transportation Lag and the Hidden Wedge
We need to be aware and cautious of a throw over top on each chart which is always a possibility. Price on each chart would need to fall back below the red support line (pricing having only been thrown over the red line to come back down again).
The DJ:DJT – Transportation (Chart 1) is lagging behind all the other charts and has not taken out its Nov 2021 or Jul 2023 highs. This relative weakness in Transportation is worrying as this index offers an early indication of potentially less manufacturing and goods being transported, with this chart lagging and failing to take out its highs, it could be an early indication of a more pronounced slowdown in the economy. This chart we need to keep a very close eye on. If DJT fails to rise above its red line and loses the 200 Day, this could be a very bad signal.
We also need to be aware of how one important chart is showing a rising wedge pattern (Chart 3 – Major Market Index TVC:XMI ). This old school chart is watched by the OG traders and investors as a more general market chart. Lets keep an eye on the upper diagonal on the rising wedge for resistance on this one. A rejection here could be something of an early warning sign and obviously losing the red support line would confirm this.
Charts 4 - 6
4. S&P 500 SP:SPX
5. NASDAQ NASDAQ:NDX &
6. US Small Cap 3000 TVC:RUA
All these charts appear to be about to break into all time highs, however they are slightly lagging the Dow Jones Industrials TVC:DJI and the Major Market Index TVC:XMI which have broken all time highs. In the Charts 4 - 6 break out above their red lines (above recent all time highs), this could be another confirmation signal of bullish momentum. Obviously a rejection at this level does not bode well.
SUMMARY
In this hard to navigate market environment we need to pay attention to DJT (Chart 1) and XMI (Chart3) as they provide clear boundaries that we can watch for hidden bear signal warnings. On the contrary, in the even these charts and charts 4 - 6 breach their respective resistance levels mentioned above we can be assured that the wind is at out back in this currently confusingly bullish market.
If you like this overview please let me know and I will complete similar overviews for other markets and indices.
Thanks for reading
PUKA
GENERAL MARKET INDICES REACT POSITIVLY TO FOMCFOMC DAY
All Major Market Indices initially making progress higher and reacting positively to the the FOMC meeting. Whilst these are monthly charts I'm sharing the prices are updated as of moments ago.
Main comments from Powell Today:
🔸TODAY AT FED MEETING MANY PEOPLE MENTIONED THEIR RATE FORECASTS
🔸THERE WAS A GENERAL EXPECTATION THAT RATE CUTS WILL BE A TOPIC OF CONVERSATION GOING FORWARD
🔸LITTLE BASIS FOR THINKING ECONOMY IN RECESSION NOW
🔸ALWAYS A PROBABILITY THERE IS A RECESSION IN NEXT YEAR
The Charts
What originally looked like a series of double tops now appear to be showing significant strength. The top 3 charts have a habit of letting us know where the market is going. At present that appears to be higher albeit the Dow Transportation Index is still lagging a little (Chart 1) and technically one would think this would be leading all others.
We should still be on watch for a throw over double top, but for now we have nothing to suggest this is the case.
If these markets can make support on the red line this could be good solid confirmation signal of price moving higher for longer 😉
Stay Nimble and congrats if your in the green
PUKA
PUKA
ARE WE ARE ABOUT TO WITNESS A TRAIN WRECK FROM THE FRONT ROW?This evening I was watching TV and I get an email alert. The title of email, “Wall Street’s 2024 SP500 forecasts are out, are you positioned?”, … and to my surprise (not really) the future looks bright for the US stock markets next year. I immediately thought to myself…What did I click on to get this garbage? LOL Truthfully, I didn’t think that…I eagerly went to my office to open the email to see what firms were peddling what train wreck of a guess, and to what extent would market participants buy into this publicity stunt. If you’re like me and you’re either directly affiliated with the US markets or just a hit and run reader of online financial news, you probably get emails just like these. Obviously, these emails are click-bait for readers of market news…it worked on me.
I practice a form of market analysis called Elliott Wave Theory. To be brief, this form of analysis charts the price action that market participants create each of every time they buy and sell. The buys and sells are obviously based on their positive or negative sentiment within any particular market. The patterns tend to be repeating, and fractal in nature, from the intraday to the very long-term time durations. Based on their repeating nature these patterns can be very accurately forecasted long into the future. This form of analysis does not take into account market and economic news or events. The basis for this theory created by RN Elliott in the 1930’s is that news and external events are not causal with the respect to the pattern and its aftermath. A great example of this would be the last two earnings releases for Nvidia (NVDA) in both the August and November releases. Each release far exceeded analysts’ expectations on both revenue and EPS, but the resulting stock price behavior was to decline 20% and 10% respectively. However, in both cases those types of stock price behaviors could have been forecasted in advance.
On November 30 I posted this article,“ Is NVDA Headed to $467 " Later in the trading day, NVDA followed through as forecasted. This was not a function of magic, just EWT analysis and good ole' fashion math. Now for full disclosure, the rally off the October 27th bottom in the markets was not entirely unanticipated I just did not expect to the extent it has rallied and I had deemed that potential alternative pathway showing a rally, low probability . Now, having rallied from late October to last Friday, I would not get too excited about that sort of price action persisting. More on that when I update followers next time.
Back to the 2024 SP500 targets. From Bank of America to Goldman Sachs, not one firm is projecting the SP500 to be down next year. In fact, they forecast modest growth in neighborhood of 5% to 10%, with some other firms as high as 20% higher from current levels. The above chart is the SPX cash market from inception. You can see with arrows how I am forecasting the future price action. I have written on this subject matter ad nauseum. Nonetheless, I wonder if these latest SP500 targets from Wall Street firms are elevating market participant expectations, only to set up a pending train wreck. Are we willing participants?
Is Dow Theory Dead?
Dow Jones Transportation Index
Do Small Caps no longer lead?
Small Caps Index
I'm reminded of this true story.
In 1849 the Texas county of McClennan thought it was a good idea to approve an event for the (Missouri, Kansas, Texas Railway) known as KATY for short, railway executive George Crush to market two steam engine trains of his deliberately colliding head on into each other. The event was highly marketed and touted as free to attend. However, to get to the area of the event in rural McClennan county, you had to buy a ticket on one of George Crush’s trains for $3.50. In today’s dollars that fare would be $125. On the day of the event, a whopping 40,000 people lined up to witness the spectacle. Ironically, the sheer total human population in attendance on that day, rivaled the total population of Texas’ largest city at the time. The main event got underway with the two trains chugging towards each other at top speed and collided in spectacular form,…right up until the steam engines of both locomotives exploded, and jettisoned debris in such violent form, that scores of people were injured, and 2 people actually died that day. Between the event promoters, staff, county officials, and each and every soul that made a conscience decision to attend such an event on that day, apparently not one thought, this could be the outcome. In hindsight the result seems both obvious in its destructive and harmful potential, while simultaneously being inexplicable why no one thought it was a bad idea.
Are there two metaphorical locomotives running towards each other now in the economic world? Is the CNBC’s of the world, and Wall Street analysts of today with their lofty 2024 SP500 predictions nothing but a bunch of latter-day George Crushs’? Saying its free to attend their publicity stunt, but transport will cost you an arm and a leg.
Then you literally have to pay up. Time will tell.
Best to all,
Chris
General Major Market Indices - An Overview of the MarketGeneral Major Market Indices
These six market indices give a very good snapshot of where we are in this difficult to discern market and why uncertainty still lingers as we continue to climb a wall of worry.
The Chart
▫️ Every index 1 - 6 below has been rejected or is struggling to make new highs on the weekly timeframe.
▫️ At the same time each chart appears to be finding support on the 200 day moving average (40 week moving average). You could argue that ascending triangles are forming, in which scenario we would await a confirmation breakout above the upper resistance line.
▫️ Charts 1 – 3 appear to be leading charts 4 – 6
- You can see that the DJ:DJT , TVC:DJI and TVC:XMI charts
(Charts 1 – 3) have all attempted to break above the
overhead resistance and have been rejected or are
struggling to break through.
- Conversely the CBOE:SPX , NASDAQ:NDX and TVC:RUA charts
(Charts 4 – 6) have made lower highs and have not
yet reached up and even tested the overhead
resistance... For this reason these charts are
showing relative weakness.
▫️ In prior Macro Mondays it was made very clear that Charts 1 – 3 can provide advance warning of recession and or bear market declines ahead of charts such as 4 – 6. Charts 4 - 6 are showing relative weakness and appear to be lagging charts 1 - 3, for this reason revisiting this snapshot would be beneficial to see can we get a lead on the S&P500, Nasdaq and US Small Caps. This in turn could give us a lead on the entire market.
▫️ At present we are above the 200 day moving average on every chart and the 200 day moving average is sloping upwards ✅
- This is positive and would reinforce an ascending
triangle thesis however at this stage, looking at all
the charts a definitive break above the overhead
resistance line would be a preferred entry with
stop losses placed under that resistance line thats
been broken.
- A revisit of the 200 day moving average could also
be another entry consideration, simply because
again you have stop placed under the 200 moving
average, defined entries with defined stops under
them.
In summary, charts 1 – 3 can act as leading indicators of where price will go next in the general market. Charts 4 – 6 are showing relative weakness, potentially making lower highs however this could change in coming weeks as a strong green candle is challenging the recent highs. Ideally we want to see a definitive break above the overhead resistance levels and we would rather not see further overhead rejections or a breach below the 200 day moving average.
The beauty of Trading View is that you can revisit this exact chart on my page, press play and see if we have we broken through the resistance lines or fallen below the 200 day moving average, all at a glance. Be sure to make use of it to save you the time and effort of reviewing every chart. You can get a the jist of these major indices all with a glance. Regardless I will do my best to update you here on X.
If you like these broader analysis covering multiple stocks in particular index's or in particular sectors, please let me know.
What are the components of each index?
- This is for those of you who are unsure what each index is made up of and what they represent.
1. Dow Jones Transportation Index - DJ:DJT
- The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States.
- The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy
2. Dow Jones Industrial Index – SDJI
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes
3. Arca Major Markets Index - TVC:XMI
- The XMI is an overlooked chart often utilized by OG traders has been referenced by Sentiment Trader as a leading market index. XMI is a price weighted index consisting of 20 blue chip U.S Industrial Stocks, 17 of which are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within the index there is surprising blend of stocks that include transport, travel, food, pharma, energy and technology.
4. S&P 500 - CBOE:SPX
- The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.
5. NASDAQ 100 - NASDAQ:NDX
- The technology index, the Nasdaq-100 is a market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index and includes the likes of NVIDIA and the MAANG stocks (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google)
6. US SMALL CAP 3000 - TVC:RUA
- Small-cap stocks are defined as having a market capitalization between $300 million and $2 Billion. Examples would be Upstart and Victoria's Secret.
Thanks guys
PUKA
