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Dow Jones Industrial Average Key MomentMACRO MONDAY Dow Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States. The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy Currently we are at a critical juncture on the DJT chart as we are testing significant resistance levels - The DTJ Index is at a critical diagonal and horizontal resistance level - A break through or rejection of the resistance will provide insight into the direction of the economy - There is a potential Head and Shoulders pattern that needs to be validated or invalidated which will be defined by the price reaction to the resistance zone. We can observe what happens over the coming weeks and how price reacts to the resistance. Can it break above it and turn it into support? When the DJI is climbing higher while the DJT is falling, it can be a signal of economic weakness ahead. A divergence of this sort means goods are not being transported at the same rate they are being produced, suggesting a decline in nationwide demand. This type of divergence occurred prior to the March 2020 crash with the DJT making its ATH in Dec 2020, thereafter the DJI made a new ATH in February 2020 whilst the DJT was closing almost 5% lower making a lower high. Those that study Dow Theory were key observers of the divergence and acted accordingly safeguarding their portfolios. Thankfully, at present there is no divergence. I will follow up in the comments with a chart showing that the DJI and the DJT are currently very closely aligned. Regardless paying close attention for a divergence could be very beneficial for your portfolio. I will certainly be on the look out and notify you in the event of. Thanks for reading and welcome to Macro Mondays PUKA
DJ:DJT
by PukaCharts
DIA trading within CPI Range from June!Dow Jones is still trading withing the range of the past few days which also places it within the range it was in back when we had a major decline following a disappointing CPI report back in the beginning of June. This puts the market in a position that could see a potential breakout in either direction. Can we possibly see economic data that propels the Dow higher out of the top of the range or will the trend of negative data to end the year continue forcing the market out of the lower end. Manufacturing data released today suggest that the economy is continuing to slow, and we have recently seen forward earnings projections for giants such as Tesla ($TSLA) and Apple ($AAPL) be reduced. This is consistent with a muted rally we are seeing here for the Dow to start off the week and a 1% down day for the Nasdaq. I stand by my previous statement here to start off the week. I would be looking for short positions, with potential long positions to hedge going into 2023. However, we still are trading within this range and have no indication yet as to which way the wind will blow for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. There are some other signs that point to the potential outcome such as a weakening semiconductor industry ($SMH) and transportation index ($DJT) still trading below its 8 day average.
AMEX:DIAShort
by D1Finance
1
DJT,a leading economic indicator,again topping out bef SPX w H&SSomething is wrong! NOWHERE to hide except cash. Even XLP staples crash last week. Now DJT is showing yet another warning sign. It just broke the very crucial 14k support, completing a head & shoulder pattern. Measured move may send it down to the 11k to 10300 zone. It is now at 13500 my green pivot box where the red dotted median of my PITCHFORK is located. If 14k is not reclaimed next few days, I think DJT may be making a 5 waves further down to 12300 where the black VWAP from the pandemic low will intersect. After that it will make a counter trend wave 4 rally back to retest 14k (wave 4 should not cross wave 1) before the final wave 5 dump to my yellow 11k to 10300 zone. Last time DJT topped-out on 17Sept2018, 16 months before SPX’s peak on 13Jan2020. This time DJT peaked on 2Nov2021. This scenario suggest that recession is already underway & we just dont see it yet, especially if SPX gets rejected again at 4100/4200 again after this week’s expected oversold rally & breaks below 3800. Worst scenario may see SPX further down at 3520 or even 3200. This time may be different coz we are in uncharted territory with so many headwinds like rising inflation, FED doing whatever it takes to raise interest rates to fight inflation, the invasion & the energy & food crisis it created & also the China lockdown. This time there will be no stimulus & no FED saving the stock market. Not trading advice. Minimize risks & trade with CAUTION!
DJ:DJTShort
by xtremerider8
DJT:bellwether for stocks & economy just sliced thru 14k supportThis is bad! Stocks are falling even when DXY dollar index & TNX 10-yr yield are retracing. The Dow Jones Transportation, a leading indicator for the stock mkt & the economy, just zipped through the 14k key support, down 7.41%. All stock indices had a capitulation-like move Wednesday 18May, the worst since the pandemic days. Even defensive staples, household retailers like Target & Walmart fell. DTJ has fallen into my green support zone. It may fall further it does not recover 14k soon. Not trading advice
DJ:DJT
by xtremerider8
Leading Indicators Reversal Still BearishThe JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF continue down draft-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is still diving -> still not seeing any flight to safety. The VIX just broke out above the trendline -> very Bearish for equities The HG1! copper futures downtrending Overall, rather Bearish bias on equities
TVC:VIX
by Auguraltrader
Leading indicators are BearishVery quickly before the market opens... The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF gave up and gave way -> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is looking for a non-existent bottom -> no flight to safety. just gave way, period. The VIX just broke out and checked in at the support... spiking up soon? The HG1! copper futures stalled at resistance. Overall, Bearish bias on equities
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy... The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely. The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet. The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45. The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices. Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first. Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators Reversal in ProgressInteresting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce... JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound. MACD still in bear territory. IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have retraced hard, and bounced off a support. MACD crossed and still in bear territory... may not be over. sus. TIPS failed a support and does not seem to be recovering, not bouncing for the matter. MACD appears to be recovering though. This one is rather odd, so I would just note and leave it for now. TLT is not bullish as one would expect it to be. In fact, it looks bearish, which is favorable (bullish) for the equity markets. VIX failed a solid break out and looks to be finding 16 again, signalling the interim volatilty is over and more bullish markets to prevail. /HG Copper futures are held in a tight range and appear to be recovering this week - if it can hold steady and break out. MACD is not yet bullish. Overall, the leading indicators are signalling an interim bottom. perhaps a larger than expected rebound should follow in the coming weeks...
AMEX:JNK
by Auguraltrader
1
SPX - DJT - CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE!SPX - DJT -CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE! The SPX and DJT are highly correlated, this is to say that the correlation indicates the underlying demand for goods requiring transportation. In a previous chart using the same tickers I showed you that there was no confirmation of an economic 'slowdown', this time we do! NOTE where I have made notations. The previous confirmation was Februray, 2020 - need I say anymore. ** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE **
SP:SPXShort
by alphamindset
1
Dow Transports - Weekly Sell SignalDow Theory Sell Signal is Active. __________________________________________________________ The Primary Global Index used for Confirmation: The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed from 5829 to 1764. The Baltic Dry Index is reported daily by the Baltic Exchange in London. The index provides a benchmark for the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. The index is a composite of three sub-indices that measure different sizes of dry bulk carriers: Capesize, which typically transport iron ore or coal cargo. Panamax, which usually carry coal or grain cargo. Supramax, with a carrying capacity. The Baltic Dry Index takes into account 23 different shipping routes carrying coal, iron ore, grains, and many other commodities. ___________________________________________________________ The Dow Jones Transportation Average is a price-weighted average of 20 transportation stocks. As a Leading Indicator, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is a Primary Indicator for the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJT Components: Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) CSX Corp. (CSX) Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) FedEx Corp. (FDX) J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) Kansas City Southern (KSU) Kirby Corp. (KEX) Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Matson, Inc. (MATX) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Ryder System, Inc. (R) Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) United Parcel Service (UPS)
NYSE:DMT
by HK_L61
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The DJT is also similar. The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias. The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed. All the above have MACD technically bearish bias. The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual. The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so. I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend. I hope we get some committed trend soon! Stay safe!
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern. Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap. TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish. TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu. VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps? ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come. So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader
Warning Signals S&P500 SPX500 SPX DJI DJT - Macro Analysis🚨We are nearing a Dow-Sell-Signal acc. to the new Dow-Theory🚨 We had a drop of more than 3% S&P and Dow which is causing a secondary reaction. If the S&P stays below $4400 the secondary reaction is confirmed. This is the FIRST step acc. to the Dow-Theory system by Jack Schannep! The economy is still in a major post-pandemic depression and many S&P500 companies are not profitable anymore! FED has pumped up the stock market artificially with free funny money that it has even broken above a resistance trend-line (cyan line) which exists since 1936 and at the same time the Buffet indicator indicates an extreme overvalued sell signal! Also the Wave Trend Oscillator, MACD and StochRSI has crossed bearish at 2W TF & 3W TF recently which means that bullish momentum is exhausted and that we are at a tipping point right now. Basically it was a bullish signal that the $SPX has broken through the resistance trend-line (cyan line) but I think this was just a so called "overthrow" or "fake out"! Since May 2021 we have a divergence between the Dow-Jones and the Dow transportation average which is a disconfirmation of the stock bull market. SMI (smart money indicator) shows that smart money is scaling out for months now (not shown on chart). Furthermore, sentiment signals also indicated very rare warning signals. For instance, Jason Goepfert's (sentiment-trader) indicators flashed rare warning signals recently, which means that there is a high spread between bear market probability and macro index models. Last time Jason´s sentiment indicator showed such a high spread was 14 years ago! Also Robert Prechter's Bear Market Prediction (Macro Elliott Wave Analysis with Fibonacci-Cycles) is confirming that we are nearing the end of a major stock bull market soon. Ray Dalio´s debt cycle model (Short & Long-Term Debt-Cycles) is also indicating that we are on the verge of a serve debt crisis which will cause a major post-pandemic depression similar to 1929. Currently the consensus (the herd) is thinking that we are currently in a high inflationary environment, but this was just a temporary spike in inflation rate which is currently at a dipping point. A deflationary shock will come sooner or later but an accurate predication when this will happen is impossible. When the debt bubble implodes (credit crunch) there will be high deflation also when it could be short-lived (economic depressions are usually deflationary). Also smart-money is betting on deflation which is anticipated in the recent raise of bond prices. At the end of the debt cycle central banks will expand the money supply even further (more money printing) which could cause high inflation but this also depends on factors like velocity of money and on the credit supply. For instance Japan is in a depression for approximately 30 years and there is still no high inflation due to manipulation with negative interest rate policy (NIRP). However, you should know that in the background the elite has already established plans for the great reset which will force everyone to transition into a new monetary system. Banks and other financial institutions will use “Ice-Nine freezes” to get your money! Be prepared and have CASH on the sidelines. This could get very ugly! Of course these major stock market signals also have negative impact on cryptos as well... We recommend to accumulate gold and silver during the deflationary shock. Also US treasury bonds usually are a good investment in a low-interest rate environment (=raising bond prices). A deflationary shock will be a very good opportunity :-) Disclaimer! I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading decisions. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
SP:SPXShort
by Asset-Ethology
1
DJT SPX WEEKLY COMPARISON : NON-CONFIRMATION : DIVERGENCEWhen we put DJT against SPX it is plain to see the non-confirmation. So, what does that mean? In simple terms, this is an indicator that there is a fundamental weakness within the economy. Both the DJI and SPX are at all time highs, yet it is quite obvious that since the May high on the DJT the demand for goods is just not there (there are only so many 80 inch TVs you can buy right. Etc..). Anyways, the point is the two are correlated and move in tandem. The divergence we are witnessing is akin to what has happened in previous crashes - it's an EARLY WARNING SIGN.
SP:SPXShort
by alphamindset
2