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SPX - DJT - CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE!SPX - DJT -CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE! The SPX and DJT are highly correlated, this is to say that the correlation indicates the underlying demand for goods requiring transportation. In a previous chart using the same tickers I showed you that there was no confirmation of an economic 'slowdown', this time we do! NOTE where I have made notations. The previous confirmation was Februray, 2020 - need I say anymore. ** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE **
SP:SPXShort
by alphamindset
1
Dow Transports - Weekly Sell SignalDow Theory Sell Signal is Active. __________________________________________________________ The Primary Global Index used for Confirmation: The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed from 5829 to 1764. The Baltic Dry Index is reported daily by the Baltic Exchange in London. The index provides a benchmark for the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. The index is a composite of three sub-indices that measure different sizes of dry bulk carriers: Capesize, which typically transport iron ore or coal cargo. Panamax, which usually carry coal or grain cargo. Supramax, with a carrying capacity. The Baltic Dry Index takes into account 23 different shipping routes carrying coal, iron ore, grains, and many other commodities. ___________________________________________________________ The Dow Jones Transportation Average is a price-weighted average of 20 transportation stocks. As a Leading Indicator, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is a Primary Indicator for the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJT Components: Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) CSX Corp. (CSX) Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) FedEx Corp. (FDX) J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) Kansas City Southern (KSU) Kirby Corp. (KEX) Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Matson, Inc. (MATX) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Ryder System, Inc. (R) Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) United Parcel Service (UPS)
NYSE:DMT
by HK_L61
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The DJT is also similar. The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias. The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed. All the above have MACD technically bearish bias. The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual. The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so. I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend. I hope we get some committed trend soon! Stay safe!
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern. Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap. TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish. TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu. VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps? ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come. So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader
Warning Signals S&P500 SPX500 SPX DJI DJT - Macro Analysis🚨We are nearing a Dow-Sell-Signal acc. to the new Dow-Theory🚨 We had a drop of more than 3% S&P and Dow which is causing a secondary reaction. If the S&P stays below $4400 the secondary reaction is confirmed. This is the FIRST step acc. to the Dow-Theory system by Jack Schannep! The economy is still in a major post-pandemic depression and many S&P500 companies are not profitable anymore! FED has pumped up the stock market artificially with free funny money that it has even broken above a resistance trend-line (cyan line) which exists since 1936 and at the same time the Buffet indicator indicates an extreme overvalued sell signal! Also the Wave Trend Oscillator, MACD and StochRSI has crossed bearish at 2W TF & 3W TF recently which means that bullish momentum is exhausted and that we are at a tipping point right now. Basically it was a bullish signal that the $SPX has broken through the resistance trend-line (cyan line) but I think this was just a so called "overthrow" or "fake out"! Since May 2021 we have a divergence between the Dow-Jones and the Dow transportation average which is a disconfirmation of the stock bull market. SMI (smart money indicator) shows that smart money is scaling out for months now (not shown on chart). Furthermore, sentiment signals also indicated very rare warning signals. For instance, Jason Goepfert's (sentiment-trader) indicators flashed rare warning signals recently, which means that there is a high spread between bear market probability and macro index models. Last time Jason´s sentiment indicator showed such a high spread was 14 years ago! Also Robert Prechter's Bear Market Prediction (Macro Elliott Wave Analysis with Fibonacci-Cycles) is confirming that we are nearing the end of a major stock bull market soon. Ray Dalio´s debt cycle model (Short & Long-Term Debt-Cycles) is also indicating that we are on the verge of a serve debt crisis which will cause a major post-pandemic depression similar to 1929. Currently the consensus (the herd) is thinking that we are currently in a high inflationary environment, but this was just a temporary spike in inflation rate which is currently at a dipping point. A deflationary shock will come sooner or later but an accurate predication when this will happen is impossible. When the debt bubble implodes (credit crunch) there will be high deflation also when it could be short-lived (economic depressions are usually deflationary). Also smart-money is betting on deflation which is anticipated in the recent raise of bond prices. At the end of the debt cycle central banks will expand the money supply even further (more money printing) which could cause high inflation but this also depends on factors like velocity of money and on the credit supply. For instance Japan is in a depression for approximately 30 years and there is still no high inflation due to manipulation with negative interest rate policy (NIRP). However, you should know that in the background the elite has already established plans for the great reset which will force everyone to transition into a new monetary system. Banks and other financial institutions will use “Ice-Nine freezes” to get your money! Be prepared and have CASH on the sidelines. This could get very ugly! Of course these major stock market signals also have negative impact on cryptos as well... We recommend to accumulate gold and silver during the deflationary shock. Also US treasury bonds usually are a good investment in a low-interest rate environment (=raising bond prices). A deflationary shock will be a very good opportunity :-) Disclaimer! I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading decisions. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
SP:SPXShort
by Asset-Ethology
1
DJT SPX WEEKLY COMPARISON : NON-CONFIRMATION : DIVERGENCEWhen we put DJT against SPX it is plain to see the non-confirmation. So, what does that mean? In simple terms, this is an indicator that there is a fundamental weakness within the economy. Both the DJI and SPX are at all time highs, yet it is quite obvious that since the May high on the DJT the demand for goods is just not there (there are only so many 80 inch TVs you can buy right. Etc..). Anyways, the point is the two are correlated and move in tandem. The divergence we are witnessing is akin to what has happened in previous crashes - it's an EARLY WARNING SIGN.
SP:SPXShort
by alphamindset
2
DJT on a downtrend DJT is on a downtrend since i last posted on it last month. Of not all stocks in DJT are on a downtrend but the major ones are underperforming. DJT touched on the MA100 line back in Jan 2021 and rose to ATH in May 2021. Since then it has declined around 13%. It is a lower high and low on the weekly and this indicates and confirms the downtrend unless this is broken. UPS recently gapped down 3 days ago and has been going sideways (inside bars). The transportation index is the driver of the economy and you need it to transport goods around. Perhaps the economy is slowing down a bit before moving higher. But with so many things are at ATH at the moment and very high valuations on few stocks, there could be a general corrections on the way, but might not be for a couple more months. If the supply of credit is there by the Feds, this market will hold.
DJ:DJTShort
by fredpui
Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age). The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008. Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
AMEX:SPY
by CTRLZEEE
1
If Country Indexes Had PersonalitiesThis is always a fun way to view the markets. Today we are going to look at a risk on barometer that may be unknown to most. When Finland is breaking out, we tend to take notice. This is a good indication that money is flowing to risk on assets. If country indexes had personalities, Finland would be on a motorcycle pole vaulting with a hockey stick! All jokes aside, let's hop into the chart. We saw Finland basing for a couple months and now we have a breakout. We have to clear through some of the overhead supply first, but we are not far from all time highs. If we were to see all time highs in Finland, that would surely be bullish right? Here on the weekly chart, we have a bullish cross on the stochastic RSI and a bullish regime on the %SMA oscillator. Don’t fight an uptrend. As far as next major resistance levels, we have some Fibonacci levels that coincide with all time highs from the last two swing high/swing low market structures. This is the “super risk on” environment and would be a blue sky breakout in Finland. These are all signs of good macro market breadth. Rather than looking at the SPY’s all day as an analyst, remember that there are many things you can do to analyze the markets. Happy Trading!
CBOE:EFNLLong
by derzzycharts
10
Bearish reversal underway in S&P, NASDAQ futures and DJTThe recoveries in most US and European stock indexes since late-March are corrective. This especially true in S&P futures and in the Down Jones Transportation Average (charts 1 and 2). The chart that stands out is NASDAQ futures, where prices climbed to a new all-time high, creating one of the broadest bearish non-confirmations of all time (chart 3). The ideal trajectories are outlined on the chart with measured targets at 2003 and 5228 for S&P futures and DJT, where we would achieve equality with the February/March downleg. As for NASDAQ futures, a strong target zone is the 8555 - 8386 area of the wave (iv) low and 50% retracement level, although greater downside potential exists. Ivo Z Disclaimer: This is not trading advice! I am merely expressing my opinion, utilizing the Wave Principle as my main tool. You should always do your own research before risking your hard-earned money. The opinion expressed in this post is only for educational purposes only!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ivoxpaco