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Djt

S&P 500 Trading Plan: $47 Implied Volatility + Gravity PointsLast week's Implied Volatility was $49. This week's Implied Volatility Expected Move is $47. So another volatility contraction right? Wrong. We've got a holiday next week folks and we've got three and a half trading sessions. Given this, I'm inclined to say it's going to be a pretty volatile week. I zoomed in to the 15 minute time frame here, as opposed to my usual 30 minute chart because I wanted to show just how extremely accurate and important these Gravity Points have been for weeks and weeks now. Use them. I intend on making another 30 minute time frame just for continuity and bigger picture. Last Week's Trading Plan: - Incredible action last week here. - On the button we came back inside of the Implied Volatility Expected Move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
S&P Expected Move ($65) + Gravity Points -Next Week Trading PlanIt's getting dicey out here. Huge moves in the market this last week. Last week $90 expected Move. We moved all of that and then some. Next week only a $65 expected move. We saw that kind of action in the S&P's on Friday. All of next week, we're supposed to move $65, but we did that on Friday. I anticipate the price action will move OUTSIDE of the expected move. Here's a more "Busy" chart on the 15 minute for active traders: Good luck next week gentlemen, - RH __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Some other work I've done recently: Redid my trendlines for the 100th time. The two multi-trendlines and one final trendline from the (2009 Low - 2016 Low) & the (2009 Low - 2nd 2016 Low), (2009 Low - 2018 Low); This is a big deal. https Recognize that if this breaks, it will be resistance on the way up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
One of DJI's Confirmations Not Looking Good - DJTAs is suggested by the heading even though we're seeing a rebound of DJI's rally one of it's confirming indicators is showing weakness. For the most part we use the Dow Jones Index as loose indicator of the overall economy, when it's performing well, on it's face, we discern that the economy is humming along well. As a confirmation for the thought process we use the Dow Transports Index, among others, and discern from if the rally is real or not. The reasoning being, as an index that follows the biggest transporting companies within the economy, it's reasonable to think if transports are performing well then commerce within the economy must be doing well. So, when DJI is rallying and it's confirmed by the DJT, along with other factors, we can discern that the economy is performing well. I'll move onto the analysis, to explain how the index is tracking. Weekly 1. Noticed that there's been high volume in the last two years of trading relative to long-term trend, 200-moving average. 2. It's been trading in a channel YTD which is confirmed by relatively accurate tracing stochastic indicator. Daily 1. Within the YTD channel, there's an interior resistance that's quite robust. That's where we find the index, today-July 25, 2018, and as with the other reactions from that interior resistance it's retracing back to the bottom of the channel. 2. The Stochastic indicator is tracing accurately with the index, which is on tracing downwards confirming the hypothesis. Conclusion: The Dow Jones Index has been on an upwards trend but one of the confirming indicators is showing that that might be a faux-upswing. In terms of the overall economy, we're starting to see that the market starting to be affect by the tariffs and the trade war.
DJ:DJT
by ReadySetBudget
The trend is still lower!SPX has been a wild ride... even experienced traders like myself have been getting pushed around, stopped out, and left scratching our heads trying to make sense of this market. It's times like these that it's important to remember that the "why" isn't that relevant to us from a trading perspective. Technical analysis provides unbiased, objective, and most importantly, unemotional analysis that can cut through the headlines and tweets to help us position ourselves for the next move. Of course we may end up on the wrong side, but you have to think in terms of probability. For example, if there's an 80% chance of a decline versus a 20% chance of moving higher, which would you pick? I also want to note that while most are intent on blasting Trump and the shit with China, that's not what started this mess. If we're being fair, the market is still up over 22% since his election even after the recent selloff. In fact, the catalyst that initiated the selling was actually a labor report that indicated wage inflation was picking up, which in turn may make the Federal Reserve tighten faster than the market expects. The headlines about trade wars and whatnot certainly didn't help, but they were absolutely not what started this move down, so don't be a sheep and believe the "Trump tanks markets" and "Trump doesn't care about investors" headlines... those are designed to sell news, not report facts! Anyways, rant aside, the current trend is lower, therefore rallies should be sold until there's some indication that the trend has changed. I also want to note that the market has respected the Fib levels damn-near perfectly. As such, I see major resistance at 2663 and support at 2533-2554. Given the price action, I think that support fails and we make a new low. I have downside targets at 2459, 2421, and 2366 for the next leg lower. Whether or not that's the bottom will only be known once we get there and have more data to use. Finally, I want to say that there are opportunities in a declining market, so don't think its time to sell everything and move to Utah in a bunker. However, if you're portfolio consists of only index funds and the like, I urge you to reconsider carrying such concentration risk and to use this time to rebalance your holdings and pick up some undervalued assets, as its the only way to outperform the market! Happy trading!
SP:SPXShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
Dow Transports - Monthly TrendPrior to 2014 there have been 3 instances of the monthly RSI closing above 80 going back to 1988, Each of the three instances have lead to a return to the trend line noted below. In November of 2014, the DOW transports recorded the 4th instance of a monthly RSI close above 80 coming in at 86. Recently the DOWT found support at previous resistance measured from the 1999 and 2008 tops. Should the DOWT go back below this support, I believe there is a high probability of retesting the long term trend line below. Depending on the timing, this would imply a long term target of 5500-6300 on DOWT.
DJ:DJTShort
by SMP99
2
DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSIAs pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines. A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period. Even more significant, in my view, is the divergence between the recent DJIA' price movement and the Relative Strength Index. It should be pointed out that the longer a divergence persists, the stronger its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. Having lasted for more than two years, the current discrepancy has persisted significantly longer than the divergence in 2007, which remained for about half a year, before indices fell by about 50%.
DJ:DJIShort
by thsumlauft
DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSIAs pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines. See the following chart for the parallels between 2000, 2007 and now, as previously posted: A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period. Even more signficant, in my view, is the divergence between DJIA's price movement and the RSI, which is apparent since early 2013. It is worthwhile to point out that the longer such a divergence lasts, the stronger is its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. With the current divergence between price and RSI having started more than two years ago, this is substantially longer than the roughly half year discrepancy we experienced in 2007, before prices corrected about 50%.
DJ:DJIShort
by thsumlauft