SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear SawsHuman beings, especially retail traders, can only really handle themselves in trending markets. Many people, especially the old men, have grown used to mashing buy on blue chip equities or the indexes no stop, and watching it go up every day no matter what.
"Bought the top? Who cares? Made 3% this week!"
Unfortunately, that money printer tractor pull is no longer in operation until certain critical downside conditions have been cleared.
Because there is so much at risk, and so much to gain, in trading, there is a lot of emotion. Fear and greed predominate, and it's extremely challenging to cultivate these hearts, these attachments away, becoming cool, empty, and most importantly - rational.
Algorithms, on the other hand, love ranging markets. They love seek and destroy patterns. It's easy for them, because they're fast, can process large amounts of data, are equipped with unbelievable liquidity, and are really just playing a game.
In my opinion, this coming week is going to have a tremendous amount of action as the setup for the descent to June lows begins.
It's important to zoom out. Looking at the monthly, August's run above the May highs and the subsequent dumpster close is a case for literally anything _except_ for a continued bull run or ascent towards 5,000 happening.
Most importantly, we still have a long way we can fall before we get to previous lows.
The situation is shown to be more critical when examining the weekly. Long red candles abound, and if the July pivot is taken out, it can be confirmed that the next area sought will be numbers like 3,500 and below.
Looking at SPX on the daily, it's important to recognize that a daily July pivot has already been taken out, already bounced, and was taken out again during Friday's NFP slaughterhouse.
The various indexes and some other critical components and critical equities all trade in different patterns, but with similar or identical manifestations, occurring at different times. Everything is happening based on an order. It's not chaotic, not random, and not participant driven.
Instead, price action is what drives participants.
For example, based on Friday's post-market recovery of the NYSE closing dump, one is given the impression that 3,9xx has support and will not be broken. However, several different elements in other tickers all indicate that a run on 3,800 is all but inevitable.
There's also unfinished business above two sets of equal highs that have been left, that also correspond to the critical psychological 4,0xx and 4,1xx levels.
It's extremely notable that printing 4,0xx and 4,1xx doesn't equate whatsoever to a renewed bull run. In fact, quite the contrary.
The major ETFs that correspond to SPX and Nasdaq all have options that settle each week on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. With markets closed because of Labor Day, the Monday option will settle on Tuesday, followed the next day by the same thing. This leaves many opportunities for rife manipulation and deft handling.
The most important day of the week is Thursday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. Powell and the Fed are notorious double talkers. Unlike other central banks, like Japan, who tend to be clockwork-credible, the Fed will say anything as it openly manipulates global markets.
Bear in mind that it was only a few days ago that Powell's 8 minute nothing speech in front of a wood panel wall at Jackson Hole sent the end of August into the sluice ditch.
I believe that the most likely situation to manifest this week is an early run into the 3,8xx range following Monday's PMI data. This will encourage a lot of people to panic sell, to go short, and buy puts.
Then, I believe we will quickly rip back into 3,900 and various factors will lead to a revisitation of the unfinished business at 4,0xx and 4,1xx before the week is out.
You might think it's too much volatility, but we're really looking at a meager ~7% weekly dealing range, just in a seek and destroy pattern.
This type of behavior gives everyone the opportunity to sell low, buy back high, and then get savagely guillotined for Thursday and Friday. The rest of September and much of October will then likely be a total abattoir, because we will revisit the pre-COVID highs, and it is going to come fast.
You can set your watch to it.
Perhaps we really will see 72 VIX print:
VIX - 9x8 = 72
So, how do you handle it? Low risk and cash heavy. You should have been out of equities when SPX and Nasdaq were revisiting April highs during an obvious onset 21st Century Great Depression. But if you aren't, maybe you'll get a chance to get out this week.
But in reality, what really happens to most people is they see it rip and don't want to miss the boat to the 4,500 moon. After all the cheap champagne wears off, one finds themselves clinging to a piece of wood in the middle of frozen water, praying to Heaven.
And yet, although Heaven sees and observes all, the Gods never speak.
Be careful, friends. Dark days lie ahead for humanity. The only way to make it through is to face it, and yourself, head on. Work on improving your heart and your virtue, do better with the things you have done poorly with in your personal life, and things may work out all right.
DJY
Joby Aviation / JOBY - Like an AirplaneSome stocks, I've never heard of before, but I come across people talking about them on Twitter, so I decide to take a look at them and keep an open mind.
That is the case with JOBY, and I know nothing about this company, nor about its financials... nor do I care about that.
So long as the markets are being maintained by institutions and haven't been hot potatoed because they're on the verge of bankruptcy, I only care about price action, because I believe that charts are fractals and contain all of the combined information and intelligence of all market participants.
Also, at present I am not looking to invest, because I believe there's a significant market-wide shakeout on the horizon. After that happens will be the time to build commons positions. Right now is just the time to make some trades and build cash.
I hear Joby's Chief is an actual aviation engineer though, and that sounds pretty bullish in the long term.
Anyways, we're (almost) in September now and the entire 2022 can count as something of an accumulation phase for JOBY.
I believe it's primed to take a run over $8 based on the fact that:
1. Swept out short sellers with stops over the March high on Aug. 8
2. Three weeks of "feathery" downturn while maintaining its July pivot structure
3. Unfinished business from November and December lying slightly above a December weekly double top, which is slightly above the Aug. 8 stop sweep.
I also believe the timing is _exceptionally_ good, as the monthly candle is painted like this, and is not likely to actually print like this with two days to go:
I very much doubt it's going to print a big red down candle with a big long wick based on how all of 2022 has already traded at a discount.
Markets at large are set for a significant downturn. However, 'ye ol' $5 stock aviation stocks can go on a 60% tear while the SPX dumps and it won't affect anything, and can provide something of a safe haven.
All the same, it's set up nicely to go for a run. At least, I think if someone was to short here, they'd get themselves a call from margin, for sure.
Other relevant stock calls:
Enovix / ENVX - A Close Shave
&
Peloton / PTON - Pumpy Before Dumpy
&
Blackberry / BB - 'Tis No Bubbling Volcano, But 'Tis a Geyser.
VIX - 9x8 = 72The recent market conditions have been strange. Post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 panic, everything went up in nearly a straight line for more than a year before SPX plinked 4,800, and then started retreating, within mere days of the commencement of 2022's calendar year.
During the moon run, VIX spent ten months in an area that I regarded as a key accumulation zone based on pre-pseudopandemic trading.
Despite SPX retreating 1,300 points over the course of only a few months, there was no fear. There was primarily no fear because it chopped up and down and back and forth. Even though SPX could lose 100 points in a day, it would gain it all back the next.
There was a lot of volatility, but omni-directionally, and a lot of chatter about recession, but nobody was really afraid.
During this period of time, notably, VIX never returned to the 18 level accumulation box.
So what is VIX? Everyone knows VIX is the volatility index, but its calculated based on the strike price of a range of SP500 options traded on CBOE .
Notably, all the way down throughout the year, even with January's dumps and February's when Russia invaded Ukraine, VIX never had a major spike as seen during other market corrections.
Actually, it never exceeded 39, despite taking five stabs at it before the June bottoms.
Friday's price action shows that the market is set for a real correction after a two month bear rally. I had some doubts about this on Wednesday and Thursday, but after seeing VIX retake 25 on a Friday, notable because Fridays have been "VIX Crush Fridays" lately, as everything melted down in good and proper fashion, I am confident the conditions have been cleared for a real bell ringer.
I believe that what we're about to see is some fairly epic and violent dumps below the June lows.
I foresee that a key characteristic of this coming movement is that it will happen both aggressively, and fast, which will naturally print an all new manic VIX candle.
What I have had in mind for several months is that when this happens we would just see a meager VIX 50, something like a yawn-worthy and short lived fake out dump. However, when I went to examine the chart in detail, I found that VIX 50 is the spike that was printed in the two most recent pre-COVID crashes.
Of course, 2008's scheme was 90, and some are projecting that "because recession" and "because inflation" we'll see something crazy like VIX 200, but frankly, I think this is a misunderstanding of where we're at in the bubble pop schematic.
Despite the markets' incredible retracements this year, there was no fear. We haven't had fear yet.
We're about to have fear, and it's going to come strong and fast and the propaganda machine is going to bark, and bark, and bark, all so you can panic, sell low, and get short, waiting for SPX 2,400.
This will also let the options MMs sell a lot of puts at the bottom with huge implied vol premiums that will expire worthless, and then they'll buy themselves another 1,200 square miles of farm land.
What I foresee actually happening is that when the target below June lows and above or slightly under the pre-COVID highs is achieved... we're looking at something like a 1,000 point dump counting from mid-August's 4,300 print.
Afterwards, we'll get either the "return to normal" or a Bump and Run Reversal bubble pop pattern, one that will also come fast and strong, so that everyone can buy back higher and have the happy heading into the U.S. October Midterm Elections.
Thus, I believe what we'll see VIX print is 72. It won't be as bad as COVID, and it will come up short of bear expectations and isn't going to break 2008.
But it's also going to be a lot more scary than the '15 and '18 corrections.
You might think to yourself that VIX 25 is too far away for this to happen so quickly, but the '15 and '18 runs to 50 all happened inside of just three daily candles.
If you were getting long during this two month bear squeeze and didn't dump mid August highss, you really need to ask yourself why you have such blind faith in this Ponzi.
Why do you think that you're still in the old situation where you can mash buy on SPY or QQQ or TSLA and AAPL and watch it go up in a straight line and make new highs every day without having to think or worry one bit?
That's not where we are in the diagram, and it's not the situation the world is facing. The world is in a lot of trouble. Humanity's future is in a lot of trouble.
And because of this, you're going to be entertained and placated with both a crashing market and then a mooning market, so that you can pay attention to the establishment narrative espoused on Bloomberg, Zerohedge, Reddit, Fintwit, and from 20-year-old charlatans on YouTube who make their money from ad revenue and not from trading.
And the purpose of all this is to distract you from the real meaning of your life, which is to prepare to cultivate yourselves and to prepare to return to tradition as the Chinese Communist Party is eliminated in the imminent future.
Once VIX is at 60, stop shorting and stop buying puts.
SPX - Surfing Big WavesThe major indexes all trade together, but have different types of patterns. NASDAQ has been crazy bullish, and will be crazy dumpish, because retail likes to lose money buying call options on tech stocks because some 20-year-old wearing a baseball hat on TikTok told them to, and because tech stocks are cool.
More seasoned professionals like to lose money buying the kind of stocks found on the S&P because they're practical.
Either way, we head into a week where 4,200 is a major target, but CPI comes out on Wednesday. This magic number, which is inherently skewed and underreported to begin with, is alleged to tune the Fed's hawkish-or-dovish paradigm, because the central bank claims a target inflation rate of 2%.
We posted 9% back to back in the last two months.
I anticipate everything will dump, and hard, in the next two days, and make themselves quite a fine buying opportunity, although it'll probably be so scary you won't want to do it until you see "confirmation" of a retracement. Also, if you do it too early, you'll just be holding bags. Trading is hard, man.
What I want to say is this: after the shakeout comes, you're going to see a 4,300 SPX. When you see a 4,250 SPX, get out of the market and take your profits.
The move that is coming afterwards, heading into September and October, will make everyone's head spin. To buffer the impact, you want to have yourself a nice cushion of profits before it starts, lest you end up buying the rip and selling the dump and having to take money out of your retirement fund to buy back higher in November.
Be careful, and remember, getting rich is not important in life. Take a long term approach, and focus on your principles and values.
Trading Plan on AAL | What we are expecting Today, we will take a look at American Airlines Group from a technical perspective.
The main aspect we can observe is the weekly trendline working as dynamic support since 2008. We can consider it a major level from where we have observed lasting bullish impulses in the past.
Alright, if that's our support level to start thinking in bullish opportunities, we need to make sure that minor levels have also been broken. In this case, we have a descending trendline that started in 2018. The price broke it in March this year.
After the breakout, the price has been consolidating on a range from March 2021 until the current date.
The trading plan here is about waiting for the breakout of the current structure (yellow lines). IF that happens, we will be waiting for a small correction on the daily chart, and we will execute orders on the new local high.
Targets: On the weekly chart, we can see a major resistance zone around 56. However, we are not using that target because we may get stuck in long corrections. That's why we will use a minor resistance zone at 44.00
R/R ratio = 4.
Risk on the stop loss = 3%
Expected duration: 200 days
The main idea of defining a situation in advance is that we already know how to trade IF we observe these conditions; otherwise, we will not be trading (you have more than 1000 charts to keep looking for premium opportunities)
Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your charts and ideas, on the comment's box
Sp500 idea Key points:
- DJY retesting after breakout
- Nasdaq trading at the bottom of a bullish flag
SP500;
if DJY confirms a down trend after retesting resistance at the breakout level we might see spx500 being dragged down otherwise this will bring Sp500 up to retest 200EMA again
US30 - Dow Jones DJY short H&S breakout H&S breakout
price came up with secent bullish strength to retest
It's a good risk reward shorting opportunity at the resistance level
Dow Jones DJY - for my recordshi. .this is my estimation of how the Dow could possibly behave in the next few years
This is based on my Elliott wave count
I am publishing this just to have it in my personal records.. no financial advise as usual
The intraweek behavior might be adjusted , what I am looking for is the overall trend
DJY - DOW JONES - Long - Daily After Break -DJY is about to break to the upside, unless a deeper correction starts.
Buy after break of consolidation
This might be the beginning of a 1-5 impulse to the upside, if it is not the correction may last longer for an ABCDE
or as part of a larger correction to the downside.
Short-Term Daily Look for a break to the upside to buy.