USD/DKK 1H Chart: Declining in medium patternAfter breaking the lower trend line of the previously active dominant pattern, the USD/DKK currency exchange rate has been declining in a medium scale descending channel.
Recently the pair bounced off the resistance of the PP at 6.38 and began a decline, which has resulted in the booking of a new low level for the USD/DKK pair.
The rate is most likely going to continue in this way until it reaches the lower trend line of another long term descending pattern just below the 6.34 mark.
Dkk
USD/DKK 1H Chart: Pair below major resistanceThe US Dollar has appreciated substantially against the Danish Krone during the past two months. This 8.35% surge was guided in an ascending channel. Following a reversal from the senior channel at 6.46 last week, the Greenback breached the junior pattern and several important support levels along the way, including the 100-period (4H) and 200-hour SMAs.
The high positioning of technical signals on the 4-hour and 1-day charts points to further decline within the following week. The nearest downside target should be the 200-day SMA, the monthly S1 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement near 6.22.
Meanwhile, the following 24 hours could show a slight price movement north, setting the monthly PP as the most probable target for bulls.
USD/DKK 1H Chart: Greenback trades in line with patternUSD/DKK has been trading in an ascending channel for the last five weeks, thus breaching a dominant senior channel along the way in early May. The latest test of this junior pattern occurred on Monday when the pair reversed from the weekly S1 and the senior channel near 6.21.
From theoretical point of view, the pair might still realise the existing upside potential until the upper boundary of this medium-term channel and the weekly R3 at 6.3670. Even though technical indicators are currently located in the overbought territory, technical signals for the following session are still bullish.
If looking from the weekly perspective, the US Dollar is expected to reverse from the 6.36 area and begin edging lower until the bottom channel line somewhere in the 6.28/30 range.
USD/DKK 4H Chart: Ascending triangle dominatesThe US Dollar has been trading in a long-term descending channel against the Danish Krone in force since late 2016. The pair’s neat movement in this channel was disrupted in January when a reversal to the upside occurred without the pair reaching its bottom boundary.
The Greenback has since been moving in a slight up-trend, but it has nevertheless failed to overcome the 6.1169 mark. As a result, an ascending triangle was formed.
If looking at the pair’s movement during the past few weeks, the Greenback has reversed from the trend-line, breached the senior channel and has been gradually moving towards its four-month high of 6.1169. It is likely that the current bullish momentum prevails during the following weeks and pushes the rate for new highs. A possible target for the following week or two could be the 6.20 area.
USD/DKK 1H Chart: Rate could edge lower in short termThe US Dollar has been stranded in a channel up against the Danish Krone for the last three months. If looking at the pair’s movement this month, two additional channels can be distinguished. The senior one has guided the pair towards the bottom boundary of the aforementioned dominant pattern circa 6.28. From that point forward, a junior ascending channel was formed.
A retracement from the 6.28 area suggests that the pair might be set for appreciation in the medium term. However, in order to do so, the Greenback has to breach the upper line of the middle pattern, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP in the 6.36/37 area.
It is likely that the pair pushes up to this mark within the following trading sessions, but the subsequent movement should nevertheless be to the downside where it could test the most senior pattern and the monthly S1 circa 6.29/30. The pair should then resume its general direction north.
USDDKK long for month of NovemberUSDDKK broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with October's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin.
My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0.
Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target.
These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure.
* End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
Long USDDKKSince last month's candle was a bull candle, I am looking for bull moves on the daily time frame such as this one.
Price broke through the moving average. This suggests a possible move even lower.
My pending orders sit at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6, 0.0.
Each order has a stop loss of 30 pips. Risk is less than 2% per trade.
No take profit target is set for this trade. The ways in which I will exit the trade is by stop out, manually closing at my discretion, or holding until the end of the month.
USD/DKK 1H Chart: Pair suggests breakoutIt might be said that USD/DKK is trading in three channels simultaneously. The most prominent one has confined the rate in a downward-sloping movement since early December, 2016, as apparent on the daily chart. The two most recent ones were formed late in August (as a new up-wave) and September. Meanwhile, the rate tested the upper boundary of the long-term channel earlier this week.
However, the diminishing trading range of the medium ascending channel suggest that the US Dollar might still test the 6.31/6.32 area, supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP, prior to dashing through the upper boundaries of the senior and most junior channels.
The upward target could be the monthly R1 and the weekly R2 at 6.3822. Even if this surge does not occur right away, the rate being located near its three-year low at 6.1588 could pressure the rate for a surge in the medium or even long term.
USD/DKK positioned southThe US Dollar is trading in two patterns simultaneously against the Danish Krone. The senior formation is a four-week channel up. In addition, the Greenback has entered a minor consolidation phase, thus forming a descending triangle.
All indications point to a possible fall in the hourly and daily time-frames, starting from technical indicators and ending with descending triangle being a bearish pattern. Likewise, the rate has already reached the upper channel boundary.
The rate still managed to realise the small upside potential up to the 6.26 mark due to a sudden surge. However, the Greenback is expected to allay this bearish sentiment and reverse to the downside, thus moving below a cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 6.25. The nearest bottom limit is the weekly S1 at 6.1923.
USD/DKK 1H Chart: Falling WedgeThe US Dollar has been weakening against the Danish Krone since February, thus forming a falling wedge. The given pattern has been valid for several months now, which indicates that its maturity may be reached soon. This assumption is supported by the fact that the US Dollar is gradually moving towards a two-year low at 6.4040. This level may eventually turn into a point of reversal, thus setting the Greenback towards the upper channel boundary. Taking into account the fact that falling wedge is a continuation patter, the rate may not halt at the upper channel boundary, but instead continue to edge even higher. Immediate support is provided by the aforementioned low, while resistance is set by the monthly S1 at 6.4413.
Hitting Resistance That Is Over A Decade OldEURDKK is at a magical spot currently. The resistance, its near now, have been tested many times. Currently you see the 5 times it's been tested since '11, but if you look further back, on the weekly, you will see it was also was tested in 2004, and again further back in the 90's. I'm not rushing to get into this pair - but it's definitely on my radar the next coming weeks. It could be big trade if it reverses upwards. Which it eventually will. It's rare seeing a pair close to such a strong resistance.