DKNG
An update on my DKNG call Originally I expected DKNG to hit and pass 50$ in a bullish sweep. That was the case but much quicker than I anticipated, and its pullback in the trading days after would turn 3,000+ to a fully closed out profit of 1,300. It never hurt anybody to take profits and I had closed out a fraction the day before it dropped so I guess thats the plus here.
But where do we go from here?
Now that markets are closed let's take a look at price action. Today we see it has plunged to 46.56 down 4.88%. From the looks at the decline it was clearly overvalued but who's to shame when you were right and got lucky with the timing? I had a stop loss and it told me I was wrong. The next level of support looks to be near 42 as a minor and 40$ as a major structural support defining a long-term trend. You can look to buy at these levels as an entry and immediately follow perhaps 39.49 as a stop loss.
On the bears side is a fickle side for profit but nonetheless, before an initial drop there may be bulls near 44 and 45 to push it into its trend that it follows in a longer term ascending triangle. The overall thesis a bear would take is a put for 40$ near a 45$ if the price action supports it(I say this because option price will be determined by gamma, which predicts price trend)
DKNG Wave 2 CorrectionDKNG is currently correcting. Yes, there is a lot to look at here, but just watch the Elliott Wave count and the trendlines. It broke a 2 month uptrend line yesterday, retested, and came back again. It has finished the overall upward Wave 1 move (made of 5 waves), and is now correcting down to one of the 4 green support fibs I've drawn. The 4 supports drawn are $47.92, $45.43, $42.94, and $39.87. We have confluence with a fresh (price has never touched) demand zone at $40, & it is an important psychological support for a stock that has so much bullish sentiment around it. If I had to guess, the correction would be most likely complete at $40, assuming none of the others hold.
From the drop this week, we've created stacked supply . This means that the next time price returns to this zone, DKNG is likely to get held up, unless bulls are extremely strong. The entire price area from $51.50 to $55.50 contains daily or hourly supply (since sellers have been in control since December 18th). So, be cautious next time price touches that area. As I said before, there is confluence at every fib support level. We have a used daily demand from $47 - $49, along with a smaller 2 hour demand within that. I believe price is likely to break this zone and continue correcting downward, but we have already seen a small bounce in the zone. This confirms there is still demand/buyers in that area. The next major demand zone is from $46 - $47, and finally, 1 hour demand at my preferred target of $41-$42.90 . The final zone around $41 is the unused one, making it the most likely zone to hold, as price has retested all other zones at least once. Zones being retested eliminates the buy orders in that zone that hold the stock up, so a zone that has never been retested still has buy orders ready to be filled.
At the time of writing, we have a bullish divergence on the hourly MACD . That tells me we're due for a pop back up in price very soon. DKNG is also technically oversold on the RSI, adding confirmation of a short term pop.
On this potential bullish move, I believe $51 is a good target to be out of a long position. The previously mentioned daily supply begins at $51.45, and my 2 month upward trendline has been broken, and is now confirmed as resistance. Price traded at the trendline, and could not break back above it. If we get a move up, price should extend far enough to hit this trendline, which is around $51, depending on how long the move takes.
In total, expect a month long pullback on DKNG. It had a very strong 60 days from November to December, and already seems to have started the correction.
DKNG back to ATH! PT 61DKNG lost some steam on Friday with sports betting being restricted in Ohio, However stimulus news was passed through Congress and the NBA is starting up Tuesday. Clean break over 55.40 and hold I can see a move to 61 this week. If you missed that rally I would look for an entry closer to that trend line near 52.
My Plan:
55C 12/31, 60C 12/31 (cheaper)
Lotto: 60C 12/24
Key Levels to watch
Support: 52.17, 50.02
Resistance: 55.40, 58.37
DKNG time to boom! DKNG has been consolidating for about 2 weeks now, gave it a shot last week but with market sentiment being very uncertain now we have some certainty restored. Vaccines have been approved which is great for sports so we should see DKNG get a nice boost. Now we just need positive stimulus news and market will pump.
resistance: 50.91, 52, 53.71, 54.83
support: 49.06, 47.70, 47
My plan:
safe: 50C, 55C (12/24 - 1/15)
lotto: 55C, 60C (12/18) (high oi and vol with these contracts)
*keep in mind lottos are very high risk, set stop loss or let it ride out and secure profits whenever you want!
DKNGLooking at the chart for the past two days several ideas came up to me: With the support level being retested at 47 instead of 45 it has bullish sentiment and after the most recent analyst calls they have absolutely affected price as can be seen 9/24, 11/20 & 12/7. 12/8 we see a Doji.....What if you had an idea to buy a stock but didn't like the current price so set a buy order at the lower support? After Friday's open & close we first saw a breakout then closed aftermarket higher.
Theory: Sports-betting will continue to be legalized, which is part of this hype. No analyst is going to change what the market has to say about the fact people are bullish in the stupidest bull trend we've seen. Because so many people are already bullish and only 3 of maybe 20 analysts are bearish people will pump this to the sky again. Maybe not to 60 but this support had some time to fall to 40 and the price action has shot up several days in a row after opening in the red.
I have calls set for 1/8 at 52$ looking to begin to cut the positions at 48.50
Do Not Bet on DraftKings Just Yet!!!I love this business model and concept. DraftKings has successfully brought in tons of sports fanatics turned customers. Sports betting is huge at a $150 billion dollar year industry that is becoming legalized step by step and state by state. No more will be the idea you have to go see a sport bookie at your local bar or driving all the way to the casino. This will be huge in the future and I only see them able to corner other markets as they become legal (poker, etc).
Now down to the chart and technicals. We have completed 5 waves, with divergence, and a broken channel trendline. The B wave has been completed rejecting the 0.618 area with a daily pin bar. The target is below $27 at Wave 4 and as deep as the $17 area. From there I'd recommend to buy and hold for years to come.