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Gold: Weekly Forecast 24th - 28th February 2020I left the gold chart almost unchanged from early February. The price movement turned out almost like what I've forecast - a quick pullback and then a new bullish trend to send the price to a new high. This is the power of how repeating pattern is and how you can make great trading decisions. As of current, the gold is expected to continue climbing this week. There will be a short and small pullback and the price will continue to break new high before you realise. So stay alert this week and try entering small buy positions as the price pulls back.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 24th - 28th February 2020The dollar broke a 34-month high but faced strong resistance just before reaching 100. The reversal came as soon as the U.S. reported a disappointing Markit manufacturing and services PMI. But what really caused the dollar to fall is simply due to overbought sentiment. The pullback is most likely temporary but the price is most likely to retrace further before it rebounds and resumes appreciation. Watch for the demand zone at 98.7 to buy the dollar again.
TVC:DXY
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 17th - 21st February 2020The dollar rose for the 2nd consecutive week and reached a 4-month supply zone. Fed Chairman Powell was hawkish in his last testimony and inflation rate hit a 15-month high. Combining the development of the technical price and the underlying fundamentals, the dollar will eventually break new high again. However, the dollar might be too overbought and may pull back very soon in the coming week. Wait for a pullback towards the 98.5 region before buying the dollar again.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 10th - 14th February 2020The dollar has climbed for 5 consecutive days last week. The U.S. economic data released were all better than forecast except for manufacturing PMI that's somewhat shrinking. During NFP, the dollar had a temporary pullback, probably due to overbought sentiment, but quickly picked up again and broke a 4-month high. As the price continues to create higher highs and lows and shown no sign of reversal, the price is expected to climb further. The occurrence of 5 consecutive bullish candles is not common and thus increases the odds of a pullback.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
AUDUSD: Weekly Forecast 3rd - 7th February 2020The Aussie was heavily and negatively impacted by the Coronavirus outbreak which has sent the price tumbling for the entire January. The RBA has been cutting interest rate in order to revive its economic growth since late 2011, from above 4% to only 0.75%. However, inflation continued to remain subdued and yet another major event, the Coronavirus, hit the Australia economy in the face. Since inflation has somewhere picked up in 2019 and getting very close to RBA's 2% inflation target, it is understandable that RBA will keep its rate unchanged, also given the fact that the central bank has cut rate thrice in 2019. And since AUDUSD has weakened so much for the entire January, that really helps RBA to hold back from another rate cut so soon. This week, we may expect some rebound from the current demand zone around 0.6680. If price rebounded off and pulls back, look for selling opportunity again at 0.6750. If the price proceeded to break the 3-month demand zone, then we will just have to wait for a pullback to sell. Bottom line is that don't just jump in and chase the trend right away.
Short
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 3rd - 7th February 2020The gold price pulled back and rebounded off just as expected from our previous weekly forecast. With the increased coronavirus fatality, demand continues to rise for safe-haven asset thus boosting the gold price further. Based on the technical chart, we continue to see the price repeating the historical pattern from February 2019 such as the 3-month consolidation and how the price broke out of the consolidation. The gold price peaked somewhere near 1612 and pulled back sharply and fell into a short consolidation where the price will eventually pick up and rise again, just like what it is now. So, if we take the historical pattern into consideration, the gold price which is expected to rise further this week will face strong resistance as it retests the previous high around 1612. The price would then pull back sharply while maintaining a higher-low stance towards 1580 to 1556, and then the price will ride onto another bull-run.
FX:XAUUSD
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 3rd - 7th February 2020The dollar tumbled upon a bearish cypher, in line with our previous weekly forecast. While the dollar is not fundamentally weak, the previous bull run has caused a technical overbought. And so during the FOMC where the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, the dollar lost its ground. Besides, the Brexit was finally over and a major factor for risk-off is out of the picture which caused safe-haven currency such as dollar and yen to lose its demand. This week, we expect the dollar to continue the current bearish run and will face some support near 97 but will eventually fall further and reach 96.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 20th - 24th Jan 2020EURUSD was climbing at first as it found support and rebounded off 1.1085 on a harmonic pattern too. However, the bullish trend was weak which led to a technical selloff as it formed a bearish ABCD and the bear took over on the last trading day. This week, the price is likely to dip lower and will soon reach the bottom of a 3-month rising channel. We will wait for the price to retrace lower and look for buying opportunity around 1.1055 area. Also, a big load of euro data will be released in the latter part of this week.
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 20th - 24th Jan 2020The dollar was mixed among the major pairs last week as it weakened at first but recovered strongly on the last trading day. The momentum of a bearish dollar failed to continue on and the price has broken above a 3-month falling trendline. The price will face a 1-month supply zone immediately and may pull back first before climbing further. We expect the dollar to recover more losses and rise towards the 3-month supply zone at 98.4. This will allow further retracement among the major pairs, leading to a better price to short the dollar later.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
NZDUSD: Cont'd from Previous PostWhile NZDUSD retraced expectedly before rising further, the current movement suggested further retracement before the rebound. What's confirmed now is that NZDUSD has broken away from a previous bearish structure and recently also broke out of a consolidating structure towards the upside. The price is expected to retrace 0.6615 where it broke out from a bearish structure. Look for buying opportunity from 0.6615 to 0.6605, targeting 0.6690 and 0.6720.
Long
by AlgoVenture
NZDUSD: Breakout of Consolidating StructureNZDUSD has been on the rise since it found support and rebounded off from a 4 year low around 0.6200. In the process of the rebound, the price has broken a few critical resistance levels such as the 8-month falling trendline. There's little doubt that NZDUSD is in a bullish structure while the dollar is also weakening. Just recently, the price has broken out of a downward consolidating structure and a new bullish trend has just begun. Wait for the pullback towards 0.6630 to look for a buying opportunity.
Long
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD: Rebound on GartleyEURUSD continued to recover from the month loss after forming a Gartley pattern and rebounded off from a 2-week demand zone. The rebound is still seemingly below moderate but higher lows have helped the price to remain a bullish structure. German CPI was just confirmed to perform at a 5-month high and could help to boost EURUSD later. Traders can wait for a pullback towards 1.1130 for re-entry of buy. Current targets are 1.1187 and 1.1220, final target at 1.1285.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 13th – 17th Jan 2020Gold had a 5th consecutive bullish run in the weekly timeframe and confirming a break-above of a 4-month high at 1557. However, it also had one of the biggest weekly pullbacks in a...very long time. This particular pullback was no surprise as the price surged into a close to the 7-year supply zone where huge take profits and pending sell orders are expected. While the gold price has climbed extensively, the gold is probably far from realising its bullish potential. From the technical perspective, all moving averages are clearly pointing to a bullish structure and the pullback on last Wednesday did not rally any further selloff. And fundamentally, with global tensions still going on such as the recent US-Iran tension, the ongoing US-China trade war which is far from over, the weakening of the dollar as the Fed could not raise rate any further and still injecting more liquidity, gold can't seem to weaken. This week, we will continue to wait for buying opportunity looking from 1543 to 1530 region. The gold is expected to reach 1620 in the next 2 weeks.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 6th - 10th Jan 2020The dollar rose steadily last week but was capped as NFP appeared weaker than forecast. Ever since the Fed started to cut rate, the dollar has fallen off from the high of 99.66 and took a little more than 2 months to break out from a rising channel. This led the dollar to turn bearish technically as well as fundamentally as the next rate hike is nowhere to be seen. Thus, a weaker than expected employment change is definitely not good for the dollar. The price was seen rejected at a multiple resistance area - 200MA, top of a falling channel and a 1-month supply zone. This week, we expect the dollar to weaken further and reach 96.6, then 95.9.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
1
Gold: Weekly Forecast 6th - 10th Jan 2020The bullish trend unfolds steadily after over 3 months of consolidation and much faster than what was expected. The price climbed throughout last week and especially bullish on the last trading day. However, the price probably ran out of steam as volatility dies down towards market closure and closed just below the 4-month high at 1557. The trend is undeniably bullish but wait out patiently for a significant pullback before trying to catch the wave. As of current, if the price remains resisted in the beginning, there's a chance for some significant pullback to buy gold again.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 6th - 10th Jan 2020EURUSD climbed further and broke above 1.1200 as expected, as well as the pullback following after. The last FOMC minutes was unsurprising as the Fed will keep rate unchanged which may cause the dollar to extend weakness. While the dollar is fundamentally stronger than the euro, short-term sentiment favours a weaker dollar and so is the current technical structure. The price has found its current low at 1.1125 during the pullback and most likely will dip further for a stronger rebound and resume the bullish trend. Await for further pullback and look for buy opportunity at the demand zone just below 1.1108.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 30th Dec - 3rd Jan 2020Finally, having talking about the trend which will come after the 3-month consolidation since mid-November, the gold has TRENDed! Gold climbed and broke above the 3-months falling trendline at the beginning of this Christmas week. And during Christmas eve, we saw a decisive bullish run which broke further away from the consolidation and it now stands above 1500. At the same time, we are also seeing a drop in the demand of the dollar which definitely helps boost demand for the gold. As of current, the price is seen resisted by a 3-month supply zone just above 1515 and it's going to take gold quite a bit of effort to continue north. In this week, we are expecting a short-term consolidation as we head into a new year with too little economic events to bring about volatility. It is a good time for traders to identify the low for reentry before the gold continues its bullish trend.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 30th Dec - 3rd Jan 2020The dollar reconfirmed the break of an 18-month rising channel after a pullback, a retest and a successful rejection from the bottom of the 18-month falling channel. The dollar has been weakening across all major currencies in the month of November and December this year. This is largely due to the fact that the Fed could not raise rate any further and is going to ease monetary policy in order to reach their 2% inflation target. Fed Chairman Powell has clearly stated that the Fed will only consider raising rate again only if they meet their inflation target. Combined with the current technical structure, the dollar is almost certainly going to fall further. We are expecting the dollar to reach the 11-month demand zone around 95.95 by the end of January 2020, 95 by the end of 1st quarter 2020.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 30th Dec - 3rd Jan 2020EURUSD confirmed a reversal just before the end of 2019. The price had a successful reattempt and finally broke above the 18-month falling channel last Friday. Besides, all major currencies have gained against the dollar too, confirming that the dollar is in a downward reversal. Therefore this week, we are changing direction and will be looking to buy EURUSD. But first, we want to make sure that the price breaks above the current resistance at 1.1175 and then wait for a pullback to buy. However, if that doesn't happen and the price goes down from here, we will first wait for a low to form and decide which level to buy.
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 23rd - 27th Dec 2019The gold was little changed but closed with a second bullish candle in the weekly chart. The price is currently facing a breakout at the 3-month falling trendline and in fact, it was broken in the H4 chart. While we stick to the same bullish view on gold, there may be some downward spikes before it goes into a real trend. As of current, levels for entry are 1474 and 1446. It may be Christmas and volatility could be low but stay alert somehow for surprise movement from gold.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture