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Gold: Weekly Forecast 12th - 16th AugustGold rush after gold rush, the gold price has reached beyond 1500 for the first time in 6 years. There's no doubt behind the gold strength and the long-term view shall stay bullish throughout the rest of 2019 as central banks continue to cut rates and ease monetary policies. However, the recent bullish wave has well exceeded the volume of all previous bullish waves and signs of exhaustion can be seen thus significant retracement is expected to take place For short-term selling, only choose to sell at a high from 1504 onwards (a minor supply zone can be seen in the m15 chart), targets at 1492, 1487 and 1470. To buy gold again, the most immediate price is seen at 1487 (just below the current range low), while the best entry is determined at 1470 (key demand zone).
FX:XAUUSD
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 12th - 16th AugustThe EURUSD made one of the strongest bullish runs in more than a month as daily volume surge to a 20-month high from a 27-month low. The price, however, fell into consolidation for the rest of the week as it got resisted by a 2-week supply zone. The US economy continues to show a slowdown and Fed members have been dovish enough as they see more rate cuts are needed in the near future. No doubt that the eurozone is always facing economic slowdown and uncertainties such as Brexit, there' are signs for further technical rebound in the next couple of weeks. In this week, we are expecting that the price will retrace lower during the consolidation phrase before it embarks on another bullish run. Look for buying opportunity from 1.1115 to the demand zone at 1.1110. However, if the price were to retrace too deep and break below 1.1110, the sentiment will turn bearish and EURUSD will once again break new low.
Long
by AlgoVenture
US30: Intraday Sell Upon ABCDUS30 has been consolidating for the past 2 weeks and the closing price of the daily candle is also getting lower. Putting aside fundamental and just trading with pure technical analysis for the short-term, selling the US30 near the range high could be a good opportunity. The price is now retracing higher from the bottom of the consolidation while an ABCD formation may form if it continues to retrace higher. Look for sell opportunity if ABCD forms around 27250 and aim to take profit either at the previous low or within the key demand zone just below 27000.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 29th July - 2nd AugustGold formed a bearish weekly candle for the first time after 9 weeks of bullish candles. The gold price has been held back from climbing further by a strengthening dollar and also due to a technical overbought. In the H4 chart, we can see that the gold has just completed the 2nd wave of a bearish trend but came short as compared to the first wave. There isn't any strong selling pressure seen and the bearish move last week is probably just another consolidation before the gold resumes its major bullish trend. This week, we will watch closely for the demand zone right below 1410 as the price is expected to retest the current low since the rebound last Friday wasn't strong. However, traders should watch out closely for FOMC as well as NFP to gauge the dollar strength when trading the gold. If the gold does drop below 1410 and rebound from the demand zone, it would be a good opportunity to build gold long before FOMC.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 29th July - 2nd AugustThe dollar climbed as expected as euro continues to weaken amid ECB and dollar continues to climb with some better than expected economic data. The dollar is about to complete the 2nd bullish wave after breaking out from a consolidation which has completed 2 waves of retracement. The price is expected to climb a little further and will meet with strong resistance at a 4-month high around 98.4. The key focus for this week is none other than the FOMC where a rate cut of 25 basis point is widely expected. The expectation of a rate cut has already priced in and the market is more focused on the tonation of the Fed in regards to the economic health to look for clues for whether the Fed will continue cut rate further later this year. Another important thing to take note is whether the Fed will unexpectedly cut by 50 basis point instead of just 25 basis point. In this week, the dollar is expected to consolidating upwards before the FOMC. If the FOMC is dovish with its economic condition and/or decides to cut by 50 basis point, the dollar will face a strong resistance near 98.4 and fall towards 97.5 and then 96.7. But if the FOMC shows little clue for another cut in this year and choose to only cut by 25 basis point, the dollar may either break through the 4-month high near 98.4 or maybe it will face some resistance first and pull back towards the demand zone at 97.5 before climbing further, I will be posting another post on trading the FOMC separately.
TVC:DXY
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Buy near Key Demand ZoneAre you one of those who were trapped by the recent breakout? You are definitely not alone and many are still trapped and hanging on to their buy orders. And what's very worrying for the buyers is that the gold has retraced significantly and beyond the 618 level which will definitely cause some form of panic. This is the part where it matters the most because this is exactly what the institutional traders want to see. Well, if you still have some bullets left to buy, wait patiently and observe the price action as it gets closer to the demand zone below 1410.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe gold, though recently broke new high again, is expected to fall into consolidation again. The breakthrough this week is unlike what it was in June and the last bearish day candle was the most bearish one since one year ago. Nevertheless, the gold stays fundamentally strong and holds high demand as a safe haven asset. This week, if the price were to climb first, sellers can look for sell opportunity at the supply zone around 1437. For buyers, the key demand zone is seen at 1410 - 1406 where the price began to strengthen and eventually broke out of the previous range.
FX:XAUUSD
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe dollar has shown resilience this week as the price was supported twice by the demand zone at 96.7 and has begun to climb again. The price has previously broken above a falling trendline thus signals for the price to climb further After this week, the price has completed 2 waves of retracement where the price is now seen rebounding off from key demand zone at 96.7. The dollar is ready to proceed with another wave of bullish trend this week despite the fact that the Fed is most likely to cut rate this month. The dollar still holds the highest interest rate after all and it is still a considerably good safe-haven asset to hold.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe bullish structure which EURUSD had before this week has turned sour as the price failed to break the supply zone at 1.128 but instead fell back to the range bottom at 1.12 again. In this week, simply wait for a pullback and look for sell opportunity between 1.124 and 1.126. Among all the major currencies, the euro is certainly fundamentally weak which is caused by the ECB signalling to introduce QE or cut the rate deeper into negative zone.
Short
by AlgoVenture
2
Gold: Long Continuation from 1140 OnwardThe gold has broken new high again after close to a month of consolidation. Those who chased after the trend when the Asia market opened this morning would have found themselves trapped by a sudden pullback lasted till right now. The dilemma here is whether the price will retrace deeper but one thing for sure is that gold will continue to climb. The question is whether is it the right time or the best price to go for re-entry to catch the bullish trend before its too late. From the technical perspective, the price is in the midst of the 2nd wave of retracement which looks exactly the same as the previous round of retracement before the breakout. On the other hand, the key demand zone is seen at 1430 just below the 618 level but what're the chances to buy again at this price? Honestly, we don't know. Oh, and those buyers who were trapped at the peak, where would they set their stop loss? Probably slightly below the previous high? In my opinion, any price between 1440 to 1427 will probably provide an opportunity to buy again. So, how would you plan your trade?
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD: Trade Accordingly to StructureEURUSD consolidated further one the first trading day but has started to turn bearish as it broke below a minor rising trendline. According to the current structure, the price may soon break below the current range and fall towards the demand zone just above 1.12, supported by a rising trendline. Traders can choose to do a short-term sell at the demand zone which is formed after the breakout of the minor trendline. Otherwise, wait for the price to fall further once the price is supported at the demand zone above 1.12, traders can choose to long with a tight stop loss just below 1.12 with a target profit as high as 1.135.
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyThe gold has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks since it peaked at 1439. It is still unclear if the price will eventually break above or below the consolidation but the long-term view is most definitely a bullish one as the Fed proceeds with cutting rate. For buyers, traders can consider buying at the bottom of the consolidation at 1393 if the price falls before breaking above 1420. For sellers, traders can consider selling starting from 1420 but avoid selling if the price closes above 1427.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyThe dollar fell as the Fed reaffirms its intention to cut rate end of the month. The price climbed at first but was rejected by a supply zone near 97.6, wiping out all gains and turning it into a bearish week for the dollar. In this week, the dollar is expected to fall further but will meet with support at 96.4 due to a probable inverse HnS. If the price climbs at first, look for resistance near 97 to sell. Apart from the technical perspective, this week is filled with important U.S. data that is strongly connected to inflation which is an important factor for how aggressive the Fed will proceed with its rate cut.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyEURUSD has made a successful rebound off the demand zone as the Fed clearly signalled for a rate cut by the end of July. However, the gain was somewhat curbed by a dovish ECB as well which also signalled for more QE. In the H4 chart, the price has technically completed an ABCD formation and has started its 2nd wave of a bullish trend which is most likely to continue in the coming week. If the price continues to climb, watch out for 1.135 as the 2nd shoulder of an HnS could form. In conclusion, EURUSD is expected to climb further this week and traders can consider buying again if the price retraces closer to 1.125.
Long
by AlgoVenture
1
Gold: Long at Range BottomThe gold price was seen support at the range bottom and a rebound has caused the price to break above a falling trendline. And in that process, the market has also completed 2 waves of retracement from range high to the range low. However, the market is still mixed due to the FOMC meeting minutes tonight but holding a long position at range bottom could still prove rewarding and trading risk is lower as well. If the FOMC is dovish and the gold jumps, it would be recommended to take the partial profit when it reaches the range high or even if it breaks new high. The gold price could potentially pull back just before the market closes to avoid paying too much for a 3-days swap. However, if the price falls and breaks below the range bottom due to a hawkish FOMC, simply wait for a retracement to sell again and the breakout level.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Intraday Short upon Completion of ABCDHalf of the first trading day has passed and the gold price has been climbing gradually towards the middle of the current range. The gold is expected to consolidate throughout the first half of this trading week while anticipating for the Fed's decision. The completion of the current ABCD formation could just determine the top of the day range for today which will then provide an intraday short opportunity. If you choose to sell, be sure to take profit when the price drops and retest the demand zone near the range bottom. On the other hand, if you are reluctant to sell the gold, you will have to wait patiently for the price to retest the range bottom the same before you go in for a buy.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AlgoVenture
1
Gold: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyAfter 6 consecutive weeks of bullish candles, the gold finally closed with a bearish candle last week as it fell into a range between 1437 and 1383. The gold plunged during NFP and was supported and pulled back sharply from a demand zone near 1390. The gold was not able to keep breaking new high mainly because the US and China have called a truce for their trade war and also the dampening of more than one rate cut this year by the Fed. However, the fact that the Fed can no longer raise rate, the trade war still exist and other global risks, the gold is still fundamentally strong and is expected to climb further in the very near future. Traders can actually attempt to buy gold as soon as the market opens and support is still seen at 1390. This is probably the point C of the Elliott wave correction after the 5th wave has ended at the high of 1438.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyEURUSD plunged the most in 4 months as well for the same fundamental reason as the dollar. However, what's slightly different as compared to the dollar technically is that the price did not pull back as much. The price was seen supported and started to pull back from a demand zone just above 1.12 but it managed to close above the bottom of a rising channel. Nevertheless, if the price continues to climb at the beginning of the week and manage to climb back into the channel, the break will be invalid and the price could climb further. Also, this was the 5th Elliott wave and price could potentially reverse or retrace strongly back to 1.13 or beyond. For buyers, look to buy near 1.12 and aim for 1.126, 1.128 and 1.135. For sellers, only consider selling when the price breaks and closes below 1.12.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyThe dollar has its strongest weekly gain in 4 months as NFP data has shown strong employment, dampening the bets of more than one rate cut by the Fed this year. However, the dollar found strong resistance as it attempted to pierce through a falling trendline and got rejected by a strong supply zone around 97.3. The price kept falling until the market closes and managed to close just below the falling trendline and the supply zone, showing a sign of successful resistance. The dollar is most likely to experience consolidation in the first half of the week as the market awaits the FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Powell to testify. If the dollar were to inch higher and close above 97.3, the price will climb further and test 97.7. If not, the dollar will most likely fall again and test the immediate support at 96.6.
TVC:DXY
by AlgoVenture
GBPUSD: Bottomed with Completion of Bullish BatThe price has bottomed within a 1-year range with multiple signs of reversal. A bullish bat pattern was formed while the price has broken above an immediate falling trendline. Besides, the current price could also be the beginning of the 2nd shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder. Aside from the technical aspect, the pound is simply undervalued for a long time and BOE hasn't shown any signs to consider cutting rate. The pound will always stand a chance to rally as long as 1.25 doesn't break.
Long
by AlgoVenture
1