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$BTC Backtesting old support #SequentialHi Folks, Yesterday's call following the 4H S13 exhaustion point proved to be relevant. The sequential countdown is now on bar 4/13 and suggest a continuation of the bullish move. However, we are now at the confluence of 2 strong resistances: 1. Back-testing the old support line which is just being rejected. 2. Nearing TDST Resistance Line @10.700 USD If we are able to close above 10.500 USD, I'll be more confident to add on a long position. MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MATHR3E
4
Bitcoin: Analysis 31D: Candlestick analysis suggests that the bull market is over if this candle closes <= 1/2 way into the previous large white real body. There is significant demand between 8450-7450. Panic selling will likely drag price into this range, providing the ideal buying opportunity. Assuming a bullish candlestick reversal pattern in this range seems warranted. If this plays out we would find ourselves in a box range between 14K & ~8450. Swing Trading paradise would start there. Assuming anything less than 7450 appears unwarranted at this point. 1W: EMA 17/34 have been significant Phi support and it appears that the former is failing. This suggests EMA 34, 8125 as the next buy target. The previous bullish attempt was extremely weak. MACD's stairway-down descend suggests to me that bear supply has not yet entered the market. I expect a high-volume panic as we lose EMA 17. We are likely witnessing the loss of the Fisher Transform 0.0 line with an expanding Bollinger Band. Expecting a -3 deviation seems reasonable, also seeing as iFish has not yet reached the OS region. 1D: The nearest (knife-catching) area based on strong Phi support is likely at 9050. I would suggest that this would be a bounce to test TDST 9555 (broken) support / Change of Polarity. This knife-catching level is supported by a previous Morning Star ~45 days ago, at 9050. We have broken below the significant Phi EMA 72. Assuming range/swing conditions between Phi 72 and (higher significance) 144 seems warranted. Descending Phi 17 EMA suggest a pass-or-fail breakout test within the next week. m15: The continuous anemic bullish attempts have clearly failed. The only reasonable outcome here appears to be panic selling into the 9K psychological area.
Short
by zerocashcool
1
$BTC sitting on 2 supports #SequentialHi Folks, BTC is still evolving in a bear channel. On last analysis, we were starting a new bullish trend (Countdown 1/13). This bullish countdown has not yet been invalidated (2/13), however we are now in a more bearish posture: On August 28th, we triggered a sell signal with a red 2 closing below red 1 low. BTC is now sitting on 2 supports: - TDST Support Lines @9500 USD - Bear channel middle line @9400 USD If today or tomorrow price close below red candle 3 low (August 29th low), we could trigger a second sell signal and add to the first position. Even if we are now advanced in the setup count (5/9), the breakdown of these 2 supports could smatch down the price to the lower line of the bear channel. Otherwise, if the 2 supports holds, we could quickly price flipped and continue the bullish sequential countdown and form a bar 3/13. I still favor the bull flag, but for now I prefer to remain neutral. MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MATHR3E
1
$BTC It's a bull flag not a bear channel! #SequentialHi Folks, I truly believe this consolidation will end as a bull flag and not a bear channel! Today's candle is very bullish and we have 3 major signals: - Green 2 closing above green 1 high (yesterday's high) - TDST Resistance is already being pierced we are only on bar 2/9 of the setup - Birth of a new daily uptrend with a new sequential countdown 1/13 At least we should reach the upper line of the channel and find some resistance there. Then a breakout should occur. We will look at my Sequential indicator for confirmation once this level is reached MATHR3E Sequential Indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MATHR3E
7
$XAU #Gold up we go #Sequential#Gold is showing bullishness on multiple timeframes. - The monthly chart is forming a 9 setup with a Recycle Flag which indicates the momentum is very strong and the underlying bull trend will intensify. - The Weekly chart is confirming the nascent bullish trend: A bullish Sequential Sell countdown has started and currently on a bar 2/13. - The daily chart is the only one that shows a possible short term pullback to come. Currently forming a Price Flip after a 9 Sell setup, we could have a sell signal tomorrow with a red candle 2 below today's candle low. Note I have configured the Price Flip parameter to 5 (Calculated from the corresponding close 5 bars earlier) The accuracy of my sequential indicator is improved looking at past results. However past results do not guarantee future performance ;) MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MATHR3E
$XRP #Sequential AccuracyHey Folks, It is quite strange to find that my indicator becomes more accurate by changing the price flip parameter recently. Demark states that the Price Flip is calculated from the corresponding close four bars earlier. However, I observe better results by modifying this parameter to take into account the corresponding close 5 bars earlier. Here are displayed different Timeframes with TD Price Flip configured with parameter 5. I let you judge by yourself :) MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by MATHR3E
#DeMARK #Sequential Tutorial 2 - Trend & Reversal (Bear -> Bull)Note: This tutorial is based on the comments made in Jason Perl's book DeMARK Indicators. I strongly recommend you to read this book if you want more in-depth knowledge. I publish this tutorial for educational purposes only TD Countdown - Bullish Case 1. Definition TD Countdown is the second component of TD Sequential and cannot come into play until a TD Setup formation is complete. Once the first condition is met, TD Countdown can begin, from the close of bar nine of TD Setup (inclusive), onward. TD Countdown works in either direction: For the bullish case, the increment occurs when the current close is lower than the low two bars earlier. This price relationship is an important distinction from TD Setup, because the market must be trending for TD Countdown to objectively identify the likely exhaustion point for a trend reversal In my TD Enhanced Sequential indicator , TD Countdown is represented by circled numbers from 1 to 13. Note these numbers from the countdown phase: 3/4/6/7/9/10 were replaced by a special character. 2. Requirement # Prerequisite: As soon as a TD Buy Setup is in place, we can start looking for the first bar of a TD Buy Countdown # To initiate a TD Buy Countdown With bar nine of the TD Buy Setup in place, there must be a close less than, or equal to, the low two bars earlier. Bar nine of a TD Buy Setup can also be bar one of a TD Buy Countdown if it satisfies the previous conditions. Unlike TD Buy Setup, TD Buy Countdown doesn’t have to be an uninterrupted sequence of qualifying price bars; the TD Buy Countdown process simply stops when markets are trading sideways, and resumes when prices start trending lower again. # Nested TD Buy Countdown On bar 9 Setups, an additional step exists to check if a Countdown is already in place. In case a previous Countdown (A) is detected, a new nested Countdown (B) initiate without ending the (A) Countdown. You will be able to detect the start of a nested Countdown with a clear graphical signal on 9 Setups: Start of Normal Countdown: 9 Start of Nested Countdown: Color Codes: Green/Red : Perfected BUY/SELL Setup Gray: Unperfected BUY/SELL Setup # To Complete a TD Buy Countdown The low of TD Buy Countdown bar thirteen must be less than, or equal to, the close of TD Buy Countdown bar eight, and The close of TD Buy Countdown bar thirteen must be less than, or equal to, the low two bars earlier. When the market fails to meet these conditions, TD Buy Countdown bar thirteen is deferred and a plus sign (+) appears where the number thirteen would otherwise have been. # TD Buy countdown cancellation Although a developing TD Buy Countdown doesn’t reset itself if there is an interruption in the sequence of closes each one of which is less than, or equal to, the low two bars earlier, there are a number of built-in conditions, or filters, to help the trader recognize when the dynamics of the market are changing. These filters erase the as-yet-incomplete TD Buy Countdown. If the price action rallies and generates a TD Sell Setup, or If the market trades higher and posts a true low above the true high of the prior TD Buy Setup—that is, TDST resistance. As we may have now, 2 countdowns in place at the same moment, it is useful to identify which countdown is being cancelled. The "X" character indicates a Countdown cancel. These colors clarify which countdown is impacted: Green/Red : Main countdown Gray: Nested Countdown This completes the second tutorial. More to come. Also check my profile to access more content. Take care MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MATHR3E
BITCOIN - OverviewBTCUSDT - 31D, 1W, 1D 31D: - TD D-Wave sell signal - net volume falling - potential target: $8,000 (SMMA 6) 1W: - TD D-Wave sell signal - ADX TURNING BEARISH - net volume falling - Fisher histogram negative - potential target: $9,200 (1W Bullish Engulfing Pattern & EMA 17 Phi) 1D: - weak bounce from uptrend failed to draw candlestick support - TD Sequential 6/9 setup - Potential targets: $9,555 (1D TDST) - $9,060 (1D Morning Star) $8,800 (EMA 144 Phi) $8,500 (1W Bearish Engulfing Pattern) $7,500 (1W Bullish Engulfing Pattern & EMA 305 Phi) 1D: - Below PB&J (SMMA6 & EMA 30) - Heikin Ashi red - Fisher Bollinger Band & 0.0 resistance - Volume Profile draws a Symmetric Triangle - Breakout target: $15,500
by zerocashcool
$BTC *erratum* Aug/14 #SequentialHi there, My apologies for Wednesday analysis: It was published with a test version of my Sequential indicator and the countdown was wrong. The correct version of the indicator is still on a bar 11 of the bullish trend so I might have turned bearish quite prematurely. However, we have price flipped on this week and a sell signal is still possible on next week (Red 2 below Red 1 low). This could confirm a touch of the previous TDST resistance Line which could turn as a support before price continuing higher. I will post soon a monthly chart analysis where we can see the bullish trend is not over. For the moment I remain neutral. We could see a broader consolidation pattern of this year's bullish movement MATHR3E Check my Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension More details on my Patreon page.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MATHR3E
$BTC Bears about to take over #SequentialWeekly $BTC has reached the Sequential 13 (S13) countdown after finding a TOP on a Combo 13 (C13). A TD Setup bar 1 (red 1/9) is also in progress and next week will be decisive to confirm a Sell Signal (Red 2 below Red 1 low). Previous resistance was around 8900 USD so we might find some support at this level before a continuation of a new downtrend. If the downtrend is not confirmed during the upcoming weeks, then we could form a bull flag and continue higher to new ATH. MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MATHR3E
Unique indicator by DeMark: TD Moving AverageDear friends! I continue describing the collection of Thomas DeMark’s forex indicators. In my previous articles, I have already explained such tools as Today, I going to deal with one of the most commonly used indicators in the trading world. This is the moving average MA, but it is not just a usual MA, it is Thomas DeMark Moving Average (TD Moving Average). Anyone, who has ever employed this indicator, knows that it, on the one hand, is rather simple to use and sends quite clear signals; on the other hand, it has a number of significant drawbacks, as it is ineffective in high volatility markets or nontrending markets. In addition, the moving average is a lagging indicator, therefore relying on its signals alone in its usual form is not the most effective trading strategy. Of course, you can increase the period of the Moving Average to reduce the number of false signals, but in this case the lag will be even greater and there will not be much sense in such signals. If you significantly reduce the MA period, the lag from the price will be minimal, however, the number of false signals will sharply increase. Thomas DeMark invented a new kind of the Moving Average indicator. He tried to maintain the advantages of the indicator but eliminated its drawbacks. That is how there appeared two indicators: TD Moving Average I and TD Moving Average II. TD Moving Average I was originally designed as a trailing stop, and it was to indicate the level to exit a trade. However, the indicator in fact has become very efficient in identifying the trends in the market and finding out not only the right exit levels but the entry points as well. At the same time, like all other TD indicators, TD Moving Average I is drawn based on relative price movements, rather than absolute values, and therefore, no separate settings for each timeframe are required. So, in order to avoid a time-lag, you just need to track the indicator on shorter timeframes. Before I start explaining the indicator, I want to thank @GravityWave, who made this indicator available to everyone in the tradingview library. Let us study the case when a moving average signals a bullish trend It occurs when the current bar’s low is greater than all previous 12 lows. If this condition is met, the indicator analyzes the current price bar and three more in future. If during the period of these four bars, the low isn’t higher than the 12 previous lows, the line disappears. If during one of these four bars, the low is higher than 12 previous lows, TD Moving Average I will be active during at least four next bars. It is clear from the above figure that once there is a bar whose low is greater than 12 previous lows, there starts a bullish TD Moving Average starting from the 12th bar .https://www.tradingview.com/x/kYCYRC0d/ The chart above provides a good example of the rule when the moving average is extinguished, i.e. the bullish trend is cancelled. You see that the low of June 27 is lower than the previous 12 lows and the next three bars can’t consolidate their lows above the 12 previous ones. Therefore, as soon as there are four bars complete, there is a reversal signal at the fourth bar and the bullish trend extinguishes. In general, if we know how this indicator is constructed in such cases, as it is demonstrated in the chart above when the low is much lower than the previous ones, we can already understand that the lows of the next three bars will hardly exceed the highest low of the last 12 bars. So, without wasting time, we can already look for a point to exit a trade. If we go back to our example, it is clear at already the third bar that the highest low at 11 741 USD won’t be broken through, and so, one could take profit from the long trade, rather than wait until the fifth bar closes (marked with a red tick). This case illustrates how a thorough understanding of the indicator work principle helps employing it as effectively as possible. When there is a downtrend, a bearish moving average is built according to a similar calculation formula. Only 12 highs are analyzed instead of the lows. It is clear from the above chart that once there is the 13th bar whose high is lower than 12 previous highs, then, starting from the 12 bar, there starts a bearish TD Moving Average, which is a sell signal. If we apply the above conditions to the same chart, there will be an interrupted moving average, where the green line drawn under the lows will indicate a bullish market, and the red one, above the highs, indicates a bearish market. In this case, according to the classics, the entry point will be the first candle in the trend (indicated by the arrow in the chart above), and the exit point will be at the close of the bar after the projection crosses the last value of the bullish (bearish) TD moving average (the points are marked with crosses in the chart above). As it is clear from the chart above, if the market is trading flat, such trades don’t yield significant profits, and may often result in losses. To rule out such cases, one should employ this indicator together with other DeMark's tools, including TD Moving Average II. This indicator is displayed in the chart above (thanks parsak21 for free access to the tool!). TD Moving Average II is made up of two simple moving averages (SMA) that are drawn based on the close. The short-term MA is a 3-period line, the long-term one is a 34-period SMA. Whereas TD Moving Average I needs a specific condition to be met in order to appear on the chart (so that it can indicate the market is trending), TD Moving Average II is always displayed. The tree-period moving average is drawn in comparison to the close level two bars ago, and the 34-period moving average is drawn based on the previous bar. Unlike traditional moving averages, however, TD Moving Average II applies a rate of change (ROC), to each of the averages. I described the rate of change (ROC). Therefore, the market sentiment is purely bullish when the ROC is in the buyer zone, and the short-term three-period MA is above the thirty-four–period moving average. In the above figure, I highlighted such zones with green. As you see, they cover most of the bullish trend. When the ROC is in the neutral area or in the seller zone, one mustn’t buy. Those, who have long positions open, should take the profit, even if the short-term MA is still above the long-term 34-period one. Finally, if you apply the TD Moving Average I, the TD Moving Average II and the ROC together, you will have quite a safe trading strategy. A buy entry will be indicated when all the above tools send a buy signal (marked with a green arrow). However, as MAs are a lagging indicator, I recommend looking for an exit point in short-term timeframes. In our example, the entry point is in the daily timeframe. So, the exit point will be signalled when the TD Moving Average I indicates a bearish trend on the H4 timeframe. As you see from the chart above, there are hardly any false exit signals on the historical data. In addition, we have always been in the trend and taken the most profits from the bullish trend. We shall see how this strategy will perform in future. So far, I have finished describing another tool by Thomas DeMark. I will describe other useful DeMark's indicators and explain how to apply them to BTCUSD trading in my next articles. Subscribe not to miss the continuation! I wish you good luck and good profits! Great regards! Mikhail @Hyipov ________________________________________ PS: If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)
by Hypov
16
$BTC Potential H&S #Sequential$BTC has recently completed a Sequential Sell Countdown. This sequential count was preceded by a combo 13 and an Aggressive 13 which completed a double TOP pattern. (H) The current Price consolidation and the previous one between May/10 and Jun/05 could form the Shoulders (S) of a global H&S pattern. The Right Shoulder could be completed within the current bear channel before a stronger move down On Weekly chart, Price is coming back to previous TDST Resistance. If it cannot hold as a support, this could confirm the daily chart pattern. MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Enhanced Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MATHR3E
$LTC Short Term Target @120 USD #SequentialHi there, Similar to Bitcoin, LTCUSD is showing an interesting level to test a Long entry. This is a short term buy opportunity with a combination of: and on the Fibonacci golden zone retracing the previous move initiated after a sequential S13 Buy signal on July 16. We could see a bounce here back to previous TDST resistances levels. First TDST resistance @ around 120 USD Stay caution, the bullish trend that started after the 9 Sell setup on July 18 has just been cancelled on the 4H chart. SL below 86.6 USD Associated indicators: TD+ Enhanced Sequential Gold DeMARK Combo Extension Trade Safe! MATHR3E
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by MATHR3E
2
$BTC Short term Buy level #SequentialHi there, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is at an interesting level to test a short term buy. Just sitting at Fibonacci golden zone retracement after a C13 Buy on July 17. We could see a bounce here back to previous TDST resistances levels. First TDST resistance @ around 12K USD On the 4H chart, a bullish trend has started after the 9 Sell setup on July 18. Keep an eye on the next 2 bars for confirmation. Associated indicators: TD+ Enhanced Sequential Gold DeMARK Combo Extension Trade Safe! MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MATHR3E
6
#DeMARK #Sequential Tutorial 1Note: This tutorial is based on the comments made in Jason Perl's book DeMARK Indicators. I strongly recommend you to read this book if you want more in-depth knowledge. I publish this tutorial for educational purposes only TD Setup TD Setup is the first component of TD Sequential. It determines whether a market is likely to be confined to a trading range or starting a directional trend. TD Setup works in either direction: It consists of a nine consecutive closes; each one than the corresponding close four bars earlier. In the TD+ Enhanced Sequential indicator, TD Setup is represented by numbers from 1 to 9. 1. Bullish case (TD Buy Setup) # Definition: Step1: Bearish TD Price Flip. The prerequisite for a TD Buy Setup is a Bearish TD Price Flip, which indicates a switch from positive to negative momentum. TD Price Flip is bar 1 (Red) out of 9. Step2: TD Buy Setup After a bearish TD Price Flip, there must be nine consecutive closes; each one less than the corresponding close four bars earlier. # TD Buy Setup “Perfection”: The low of bars eight or nine of the TD Buy Setup or a subsequent low must be less than, or equal to, the lows of bars six and seven of the TD Buy Setup How to differentiate perfected and unperfected Buy Setup within TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: Perfected Buy Setup is a RED character '9' Unperfected Buy Setup is a GRAY character '9' # Interruption of a TD Buy Setup: If, at any point, the sequence is interrupted, the developing TD Buy Setup will be canceled and must begin anew. 2. Bearish case (TD Sell Setup) # Definition: Step1: Bullish TD Price Flip The prerequisite for a TD Sell Setup is a Bullish TD Price Flip, which indicates a switch from negative to positive momentum. TD Price Flip is bar 1 (Green) out of 9 Step2: TD Sell Setup After a Bullish TD Price Flip, there must be nine consecutive closes; each one greater than the corresponding close four bars earlier. # TD Sell Setup “Perfection” The high of TD Sell Setup bars eight or nine or a subsequent high must be greater than, or equal to, the highs of TD Sell Setup bars six and seven How to differentiate perfected and unperfected Buy Setup within TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: Perfected Sell Setup is a GREEN character '9' Unperfected Sell Setup is a GRAY character '9' # Interruption of a TD Sell Setup If at any point, the sequence is interrupted, The developing TD Sell Setup will be canceled and must begin anew. This completes the first tutorial. More to come. Also check my profile to access more content. Take care MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MATHR3E
1
$TWTR Potential LT Target @80USD #SequentialTwitter is on track to finish this week with the start of a new sequential sell countdown. This new bullish countdown should also confirm the bullish cup and handle pattern. The previous bull move from April/2017 to June/2018 has been retraced and matched with the 0.618 Fib. This level perfectly held the price and acts now as good support zone. From an Elliot Wave perspective, the retracement back to the 0.618 Fib means the completion of a Wave 1 & 2 impulsive move. So we may now be in the early stage of a wave 3 with a rational 80USD first target. Once this level reached, we will reevaluate our position based on the TD+ Enhanced Sequential Gold Indicator MATHR3E
NYSE:TWTRLong
by MATHR3E
2