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EURUSD Daily: Another Great Short Set-up at 1.152 Waiting for Us After EURUSD had touched under the trend line on Feb. 11th which also intersected 161.8% of previous leg from December and had completed the bearish bat, price reached the support around 1.084 at 61.8% of the range from December low to the previous high around 1.137. This time it can reach another level with similar implications: touching the same trend line intersecting with 127.2% of the previous leg at around 1.152. +DI, -DI and ADX at key levels again for this uptrend. For this long term possible trade, with entry at about 1.152, I chose SL above the trend line, 127.2% of the December low and February high swing and 141.4% of the previous swing from February high to previous low of the beginning of March at about 1.163-1.164. Targets here are preliminary, I normally watch the price action when closing the trade, important for me is to have a well defined risk
Short
by Aurocks_AIF
4
Uptrend Force Makes Breakout LikelyBitcoin has smashed back into the new "downtrend line" from ATH. This 3 day uptrend is a solid trend continuation of the previous 3 day uptrend after a nice correction down to the $360 area. At this point the uptrend has serious momentum just starting. ADX has turned up, CCI is just above 100, and MACD histogram is accelerating into positive territory while the MACD line is trending up from the 0 line. Basically we've hit this "downtrend line" with such force that it's likely to break. If you're long I would hold as long as you can to see if this breaks. If you're not in a position I would wait for the break to happen before going long. If you're short: stop shorting uptrends :D Keep in mind this 3D chart can have some volatility on the lower timeframes, so I would make sure the uptrend is clearly over before going short if this "downtrend line" proves to have any worth.
BLong
by bwy
1
A long term perspective to help with shorter term tradesThe monthly chart has signaled a resumption of the previous massive monthly uptrend that took BTC/USD from $5 to over $1000. The ADX (the blue line on the DMI), which is a measurement of trend strength or momentum, is the main indicator I'm concentrating on with this post. Currently the ADX has switched back into rising mode which shows trend strength increasing in the upward direction. After taking a couple month pause in the first trend leg up the trend is likely to resume shortly, as in by the end of February. This new uptrend comes after a long period of ranging between $300 and $200 or about 1900 CNY to 1300 CNY. After long periods of sideways great trends are likely to form after a breakout of the rang occurs, which currently we broke out to the upside while the ADX confirms we are indeed back in an uptrend on the same breakout bar. I strongly advise people stick to searching for long only bias trades on the smaller time frames, because there is a significant upside bias on the monthly chart. There is a slight possibility this could turn into a fakeout, which then leads to a real downtrend, but I find that to be highly unlikely after spending so many months going sideways. Keep in mind the all time high of $1100 or 7500 CNY had the highest momentum of the entire uptrend. For those who look for divergences in momentum, we have yet to see any in the BTC monthly uptrends. The RSI not included on this chart shows this very clearly. From experience, trends normally get pretty close the previous highs before failing completely so I'd expect this trend to get us close to the all time high if not higher. The ATR indicator I included is a modified ATR that shows a percentage based ATR along with standard deviation bands that identify extreme increases or decreases in volatility. In this case volatility is on the low side still within what would be considered a normal range. I also included the MACD which is self explanatory bullish with an accelerating histogram as well as an above 0, rising momentum MACD line. Good luck in the years to come guys, but I honestly think looking for short trades would be better done a year or so out from a trend perspective. I'd either wait for a massive move up beyond all reason and/or a clear sign of a trend reversal before attempting any shorts. Finally there can be lots of volatility inside the monthly bars, so concentrate on the smaller time frames for your trades. I would only use the monthly chart as a guide for planning.
BLong
by bwy
BTC/USD What I Beleive Bulls Are SeeingI think bulls are seeing a large pennant, thinking that $470 will provide support along the lower trend line of the pennant. There is a possibility it might too. I'm inclined to think that it will not hold though. If this is a pennant, there is very little time and range to play around in, so it should break soon. The indicators that I use are all showing this will break to the downside and sooner rather than later. The ADX on the DMI is continuing to trend up showing the downtrend is gaining strength. The MACD histogram is continuously showing lesser upside momentum while the downside momentum is a bit more consistent in building strength. The MACD itself is digging deep below the 0 line with lower lows each time. The RSI seems to simply be following the price with lower highs since $680. I wouldn't short here, in fact if you're inclined to buy this would be the area to do it. However the only case I can make for buying is that we're at the support of the pennant (even though it has broken before). Basically nothing indicator wise looks good to me for buying right now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bwy
3
SPY: Approaching Historic Micro ConsolidationHypothesis: S&P 500 (and the market as a whole) is approaching a series of consolidations: a) Consolidation 1: - signal: as soon as RSI begins to fall (past dotted yellow lines) - magnitude: ~10% - time: July 31st (possibly earlier) * The timing is based off of historical cycles. The current cycle is much slower than the 2002 / 2008 cycles --> 42% to 115% slower respectively. So while the small scale consolidations that occurred in those cycles 61 days from the solid yellow DMI line, the current cycle is much slower and so we can expect this consolidation to occur further out in time. Estimate: 91 days, but the RSI signal is the only important consideration. b) Expansion 1: - magnitude: ~10% Once Consolidation 1 is complete, there will be expansion, as has occurred in the past 2 cycles. Possibly greater than 10%. *signals and timing to come c) Consolidation 2: - signal: expansion 1 completes and DMI + / - indicators cross (past red lines) - magnitude: ~20% - time: The timing is difficult to predict, but tentatively September 2015 d) Bull Trap (Expansion 2): e) Consolidation 3: * Once the Consolidation 2 begins, it is dangerous to attempt to capture the Bull Trap profits due to the risk of losing your position.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BeeHumble