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Daily Market Update for 1/12Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (50d), 1/6 (5d) and today 1/12 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 12, 2021 Facts: +0.28%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 7% Good: Close in upper side of range, dipped just briefly below 13,000 Bad: Thin body, second indecisive day, LH/LL Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: An indecisive candle with close just above open, long lower shadow Advance/Decline: 2.23, more than two advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.04%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (+1.77%), VIX (-3.11%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview If you are invested in growth stocks and small caps you are probably delighted, but it may be a bit confusing to look at the indexes. The growth and small cap segments did exceptionally well, but the major indexes show an indecisive day. The Nasdaq dipped mid-day but finished just above its open. The index closed up +0.28% on higher volume. The closing range of 77% is a positive, but the 7% body displays the indecisiveness. However, the advance/decline number of 2.23 shows a much more bullish picture, raising questions whether the broader market can continue to advance without the bigger players advancing. Another way to see the power of the small-caps is the Russell 2000 (RUT) index that soared above the other indexes with a +1.77% gain and a fat green candle with no lower wick and a tiny upper wick. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had smaller gains than the Nasdaq, all show indecisive candles. Energy (XLE +3.49%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%) were the top sectors of the day. Communications (XLC -1.61%) and Health Services (XLV -1.09%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined for the day after several days of gains. Likewise, US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y) bond yields pulled back from recent gains. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices gained slightly for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both gained today, after their declines since the start of the new year. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced for another day. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all advanced for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.542 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four biggest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) advanced for the day, but still set a lower high and a lower low. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) all declined. Only Apple remains above the 50d MA while the others are below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA. The big question for the big mega-caps is can the broader market rally without them. Tesla (TSLA) regained some of the previous day's losses. Intel (INTC), Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Home Depot (HD) round out the top four performing mega-caps. But overall, six of the largest 10 mega-caps delivered losses for the day. Very different than the broader market. Growth stocks were very strong for the day. Top stocks included FUTU Holdings (FUTU +15.27%), Etsy (ETSY +12.08%), Fiverr (FVRR +9.33%) and SUMO Logic (SUMO +9.31%). Twitter (TWTR -2.24%) and Facebook (FB -2.24%) continue to suffer from the past week's events. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer price index data will be released tomorrow, giving a view on inflation. After today's remarks from Esther George on the possibility of surprise inflation, investors will be watching these numbers closely. Crude Oil inventories will also be updated tomorrow after market open. No notable earnings reports for this update are scheduled for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend and long trend line from the 10/30 bottom point to a +1.06% gain. The one-day trend points to a -0.17% loss. The 21d EMA is about 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's further downside. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today the small-caps and growth stocks shined. The major indexes didn't show it as large-cap and mega-caps held back the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The question is whether the Russell 2000 and small-caps can continue to rally without the big players advancing too. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/11Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (49d), 1/5 (5d) and today 1/11 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or and corrected inline in my blog. I'm working to condense this daily update over the next few weeks. I need to reduce it for both brevity and preparation time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 11, 2021 Facts: -1.25%, Volume lower, Closing range: 27%, Body: 9% Good: Lower volume, stayed above 13k Bad: Morning gains turn to a new intraday low before close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Bearish inside day, thing body at bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing Indexes: SPX (-0.66%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.03%), VIX (+11.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was tough to have any expectation coming into today's trading session. Nervousness about what will happen in DC on top of continuing pandemic pressures over the weekend resulted in a low start to the day. Confidence grew as buyers came in but ultimately the bears ruled the day, bringing the index back down to a new intraday low before close. The index closed with a -1.25% loss on lower volume. The bearish day resulted in a 27% closing range where the close is just under the open. The 9% body and long upper wick show the morning buying turning to afternoon selling. More stocks declined than advanced. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had similar patterns, but closed the day with smaller losses. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also had a loss but with a more bullish look and the smallest loss of the four indexes. The VIX volatility Index rose +11.69%. Energy (XLE +1.57%) and Health Services (XLV +0.47%) were the top sectors for the day. Crude Oil prices continuing to rise helped Energy take the top spot after a morning dip. Financials (XLF +0.32%) was the only other sector to gain for the day. Communications (XLC -1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.87%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to gain at the beginning of this new year. US Treasury 30y (US30Y), 10y (US10Y), and 2y (US02Y) bond yields all gained for the day. Spread on the 10y and 2y is widening while the spread on the 30y and 10y is tightening. Corporate Bonds (HYG) prices dropped for the day, signaling some nervousness from investors. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both continue to drop. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced for another day. Timber (WOOD), Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) all dropped for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.603 as investor optimism remains very bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps all declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) remain above the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) closed below the 21d EMA while Amazon (AMZN) is below both lines. The relative strength of these big mega-caps compared to the market is at low levels. The has been a bearish sign in the past, but may just be representative of the focus on small caps in recent months. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, giving a pop for semiconductor stocks. The majority of mega-caps were down for the day. Growth stocks had a mix of results. Grow Generation (GRWG) and Lemonade (LMND) led with 13.77% and 14.01% gains respectively. Chinese EV manufacturer NIO (NIO) gained after releasing their new car model over the weekend. Tesla (TSLA) declined for the first time in 12 sessions, losing -7.82%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news tomorrow will include the EIA Short-Term Energy outlook before market open. Several FOMC members will make comments throughout the day. Lots of attention will be paid to the JOLTs Job Openings number to understand how the labor market is doing. No notable earnings reports for this update are scheduled for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend points to a +1.95% gain. The long trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a gain of +1.15%. The one-day trend points to a -0.22% loss. The 21d EMA is about 2% below the index which should be an area of support if there's further downside. The index also held the 12,550 area recently. If it passes that area, the next support area is 12,250. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't a particularly decisive day. The expectation from Friday's action was higher for today, so that expectation was broken and we need to watch closely over the next few days to see what the market wants to do. Investors remain positive on the possibility of more stimulus, resulting in the higher yields in treasury bonds. But the lowered prices on corporate bonds sends the opposite signal. Small caps continue to outperform heading into the new year. I'll continue to watch the mega-caps as their relative strength to the rest of the market continues to weaken. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321