Daily Market Update for 5/23Summary: Stocks rallied on Monday thanks to a stronger Euro after the European Central Bank said rate hikes would come later this year.
Notes
I've been traveling for the past two weeks and have not been able to write the Daily Market Update. I'm back at home and will continue covering the markets as often as I can.
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, May 23, 2022
Facts: +1.59%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 56% Green
Good: High closing range
Bad: Lower volume on gain, lower high than previous day
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low
Candle: Inside day, upper half green body, lower half wick
Advance/Decline: 1.07, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (+1.86%), DJI (+1.98%), RUT (+1.10%), VIX (-3.23%)
Sector List: Financials (XLF +3.25%) and Energy (XLE +2.64%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.88%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.75%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Stocks rallied on Monday thanks to a stronger Euro after the European Central Bank said rate hikes would come later this year.
The Nasdaq rose by +1.59% for the day, but it was not enough to reach the previous day's high. The inside day came with lower volume, but the closing range of 93% and 56% green body in the upper half of the candle is positive. There was a nearly equal number of advancing and declining stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) outperformed the other indexes, gaining by +1.98% while the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced by +1.86%. The Russel 2000 (RUT) climbed by +1.10%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -3.23% but remained elevated as it has been since the beginning of May.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Financials (XLF +3.25%) and Energy (XLE +2.64%) were the best two sectors for today. Health (XLV +0.88%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.75%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by -0.91% and is down 2.5% from its peak in early May. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices moved higher while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Copper and Aluminum Futures continued to rise.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.829. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range.
Five of the big six mega-caps advanced. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one to decline but fell just -0.03%. Apple (AAPL) had the biggest gain, advancing +4.01%, followed by Microsoft which moved up by +3.20%. All six have work to do before getting back to their key moving average lines.
Financial stocks topped the broader mega-cap list. JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) were the top gainers, advancing +6.19% and +5.94% respectively. Broadcom (AVGO) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -3.10%. There were only four mega-caps that declined.
The Daily Update Growth List had some gainers, but overall more than half of the list declined. DoorDash (DASH) topped the list with a +2.39% gain. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest loss, declining by -6.13%.
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Looking ahead
Purchasing Manager Index data for May will be available after the market opens tomorrow. That includes Manufacturing, Services, and Composite measurements. We will also get New Home Sales data for April.
Nvidia (NVDA), Trip.com (TCOM), and Box Inc (BOX) are a few of the earnings reports for Tuesday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
Although the day ended with positive gains, the lower high means the index is still in a down trend.
If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a +1.33% gain for Tuesday.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line and or the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would result in a -3.86% decline.
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Wrap-up
It's been a wild few weeks. Part of me is happy I was on break and didn't report daily. Part of me thinks there was much to learn from the market data and could have benefited.
Let's hope for some new highs throughout this week and some gains on higher volume, shared broadly across the market.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Dmu
Daily Market Update for 5/6Summary: The market continued to correct as the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose on Friday. Defensive sectors in the S&P 500 gained while other sectors sank.
Notes
A brief update today due to holidays and travel. I will be traveling for the next week as well but will try to keep the Daily Market Update going.
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, May 6, 2022
Facts: -1.40%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 42%, Body: 28% Red
Good: Closing range is ok
Bad: Lower high, lower low, higher volume sell-off
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thin body in middle of long upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.27, almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.57%), DJI (-0.30%), RUT (-1.69%), VIX (-3.24%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.98%) and Utilities (XLU +0.80%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.43%) and Communications (XLC -2.06%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
A brief update today due to holidays and travel. The market continued to correct as the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose on Friday. Defensive sectors in the S&P 500 gained while other sectors sank.
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Looking ahead
Fed's Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak on Monday. Bostic is on the hawkish side of the Fed and could stoke fears of higher interest rate hikes despite Jerome Powell's assurance they would limit to 50 basis points.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq fell to 12,000 before getting support on Friday. Some analysts have forecasted 12,000 as the bottom during this correction, but time and the market will tell if that's true. The 40w EMA is at 11,750.07. The index dipped below this line only in the 2000, 2008, and 2020 crashes.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would mean a +0.66% gain for Monday.
The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.67% decline.
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Wrap-up
Analysts have been waiting for broad market capitulation and maybe we've seen some over the past two days, or maybe there is more to come. Watch the two levels at 12,000 and 11,750. If those levels hold, then we could see some upside from there.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 5/5Summary: The Wednesday rally did not last and in a whiplash move markets sold off on Thursday, with some of the worst single-day losses since 2020.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, May 5, 2022
Facts: -4.99%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 22%, Body: 78% Red
Good: Lower volume
Bad: Big decline, lower high, lower low, advance/decline ratio
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body, short lower wick from late dip buying
Advance/Decline: 0.15, more than six declining stocks for every advancing
Indexes: SPX (-3.56%), DJI (-3.12%), RUT (-4.04%), VIX (+22.74%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU -1.02%) and Energy (XLE -1.50%) at the top. Technology (XLK -4.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.60%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
The Wednesday rally did not last and in a whiplash move markets sold off on Thursday, with some of the worst single-day losses since 2020.
The Nasdaq plummeted by -4.99%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has no upper wick, a 78% red body, and a 22% closing range. There were over 6 declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell by -4.04%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -3.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -3.12%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up by +22.74%.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Utilities (XLU -1.02%) and Energy (XLE -1.50%) were at the top of the list. Technology (XLK -4.81%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.60%) had the worst declines.
The weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200,000 this week, topping the forecast of 182,000. Nonfarm Productivity for Q1 dropped more than expected, receding by -7.5%. Unit Labor Costs for Q1 rose more than expected, rising by 11.6% instead of the 9.9% forecast.
After dipping yesterday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped back to recent highs, gaining +1.01% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil reached again $110 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.881. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 57.18 from 46.25 the previous week.
All of the big six mega-caps had huge losses. Tesla (TSLA) led the declines with a -8.33% drop today. Only Meta (FB) held above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, despite a -6.77% decline today.
Only one stock in the Daily Update Growth List gained. Twitter (TWTR) rose by +2.65% as more financial support came for Elon Musk's purchase of the company. More than ten stocks on the list declined by more than 10%. Fastly (FSLY) ended up at the bottom of the list with a -18.09% decline.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow is Jobs Data Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and other jobs-related metrics will be released prior to the market opening. Four Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq reached the 13,000 support/resistance area yesterday but was rejected and sent tumbling today.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +0.88% gain for tomorrow.
The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -1.45% decline for tomorrow.
If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that would mean a -3.62% decline.
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Wrap-up
What a wild ride from yesterday's late afternoon rally to today's dramatic sell-off. It's unclear what drove yesterday's rally vs today's reposition. Could it be yesterday's relief over a 50 basis point increase vs the fear 75 basis point increase that drove the rally? And then as the additional two increases announced for June and July sank in, that drove today's decline?
I don't know. Someone much smarter than me is making those decisions somewhere. Let's see if we get a rebound on Friday or if the pain continues.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 5/4Summary: Jerome Powell gave unexpected but specific guidance on not only today's interest rate hikes, but also the next two. In addition, the specifics around reducing the balance sheet helped squash the fear that the Fed would move too fast.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, May 4, 2022
Facts: +3.19%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 63% Green
Good: Gain on higher volume, strong afternoon rally with 97% closing range
Bad: Lower low
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Outside day, thick green body over a long lower wick, tiny upper wick
Advance/Decline:
Indexes: SPX (+2.99%), DJI (+2.81%), RUT (+2.69%), VIX (-13.09%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +4.15%) and Technology (XLK +3.51%) at the top. Health (XLV +2.22%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.18%) at the bottom.
Expectation:
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Market Overview
Jerome Powell gave unexpected but specific guidance on not only today's interest rate hikes, but also the next two. In addition, the specifics around reducing the balance sheet helped squash the fear that the Fed would move too fast.
The Nasdaq responded with a late-day rally that helped it close with a +3.19% gain. The intraday swing was a huge 5% from low to high. Volume was much higher than the previous day. The candle has a lower low and a higher high, making for an outside day. The closing range of 97% is above a 63% green body. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock.
The S&P 500 followed the Nasdaq with a +2.99% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +2.81%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +2.69%. The VIX Volatility index dropped by -13.09%, although still remains elevated.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Energy (XLE +4.15%) and Technology (XLK +3.51%) were the best two sectors. Health (XLV +2.22%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.18%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April came in lower than expected at 57.1 compared to the 58.5 forecasts. However the Markit Services PMI and Composite PMI both beat expectations. The biggest news though was the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.0% and also stated the next two increases would be 50 basis points, not the 75 basis points feared by some analysts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped -0.91%. The US 30y Treasury Yield gained while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields declined. The gap between long and short-term yields widened. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold rose, thanks to the US Dollar's weakening. Brent Oil is at $109 a barrel after Europe proposed cutting off Russian oil.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.857. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but remained in the Fear region.
All of the big six mega-caps rose today. Meta (FB) topped the group with a +5.37% gain. Apple (AAPL) and Meta closed above their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) moved above its 21d EMA while Tesla (TSLA) closed above its 50d MA.
The big six led the mega-cap list with Facebook, Tesla, Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) making up the top four. AstraZeneca (AZN) was the only declining stock in the list.
The Daily Update Growth List closed almost entirely in the green. PayCom (PAYC) topped the list with a +13.78% gain. The only declining stock in the list was RH (RH) which lost -1.46%.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow we will get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens. We will also get Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q1.
Shell (SHEL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Block (SQ), Shopify (SHOP), MercadoLibre (MELI), DataDog (DDOG), Lucid (LCID), Cloudflare (NET), DoorDash (DASH), and Zillow (Z) are among the earnings reports for Thursday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq moved back toward the 13,000 support/resistance area and stopped just short of that mark. Will it prove as resistance again or can the index move past the line and top the 21d EMA?
If the one-day trend line continues into Thursday, that would mean a +3.26% gain, rising above the 21d EMA and stopping short of the 50d MA.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -3.78% decline.
A drop to the trend line from the 3/29 high would mean a -5.83% decline.
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Wrap-up
The afternoon rally felt good. Investors' confidence grew thanks to very specific guidance from the Fed on current and future interest rates and the balance sheet reduction. Forecasting with such specificity is not common for the Fed and shows how careful they are being to not create a recession.
The next few days will be an important signal for equities. If the rally sticks, we should see a few days of gains on elevated volume and breath across the market with an advance/decline ratio over 1.0. Then some consolidation might begin late on Friday or early next week before the next move up.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 5/3Summary: There was less choppiness in a lighter volume trading day as investors way for the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, May 3, 2022
Facts: +0.22%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 56%, Body: 28% Green
Good: Higher high and low, good closing range
Bad: A/D below 1.0, need more volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Thin green body within a tight low and high
Advance/Decline: 0.96, slightly more declining stocks than advancing
Indexes: SPX (+0.48%), DJI (+0.20%), RUT (+0.85%), VIX (-9.55%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +1.30%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.29%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
There was less choppiness in a lighter volume trading day as investors way for the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday.
The Nasdaq climbed +0.22% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 28% green body sits in the middle of a tighter price range than what we've experienced almost daily for the last several weeks. The closing range of 56% is good and we got a higher high and higher low. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) did the best today, gaining +0.85%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.48% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced by +0.20%. The VIX Volatility index dropped by -9.55%, but remains elevated.
Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE +2.80%) and Financials (XLF +1.30%) were the best sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.29%) were the two losing sectors.
Both Factory Orders and JOLTs Job Openings for March were higher than forecast. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was lower than expected, showing high demand.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by -0.14% as it bounced up and down the last few days. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.753. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Fear.
Four of the big six mega-caps gained. Apple (AAPL) led the way with a +0.96% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.95%.
Shell (SHEL) led the mega-cap list with a +3.55% gain. The top four mega-caps were Energy and Financial companies. Visa (V) had the biggest decline in the list, losing -1.40% today.
The Daily Update Growth List had mixed results. The biggest gain came from Enphase (ENPH) which advanced by +3.68%. Okta, Inc. (OKTA) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -5.04% today.
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Looking ahead
All eyes will be on the Fed Interest Rate Decision tomorrow afternoon. The expectation is for a 50 basis point rise to bring interest rates to 1.00%.
Before the Fed's decision, we'll get Trade Balance data for March and the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for April. Crude Oil Inventories come later in the morning.
CVS (CVS), Booking (BKNG), Moderna (MRNA), Uber Tech (UBER), Marriot (MAR), Fortinet (FTNT), and eBay (EBAY) are among the companies reporting earnings on Wednesday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq stayed within a relatively tight trading range today.
If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, expect a +0.38% advance.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -1.14% decline.
The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -2.48% decline.
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Wrap-up
Let's hope the Fed gives us a boring day tomorrow, by doing exactly as expected and raising interest rates by 50 basis points. Boring is good for the stock market.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 5/2Summary: A late rally helped stocks close higher on Monday as long-term Treasuries rose above 3% ahead of the Fed meeting this week.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, May 2, 2022
Facts: +1.63%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 60% Green
Good: Closing range, gain on higher volume
Bad: Lower high, lower low
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Green body covers upper half of candle
Advance/Decline: 1.08, about the same number of advancing and declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (+0.57%), DJI (+0.26%), RUT (+1.01%), VIX (-3.17%)
Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Energy (XLE +1.60%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.31%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.60%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
A late rally helped stocks close higher on Monday as long-term Treasuries rose above 3% ahead of the Fed meeting this week.
The Nasdaq closed up by +1.63%. The high closing range of 98% came after the index rallied in the final hour of trading. The index flipped from a red to green in the rally, leaving behind a long lower wick below a 60% green body. Volume was higher than the previous day. There was a nearly equal number of advancing and declining stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +1.01%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by +0.26%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -3.17%.
Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Energy (XLE +1.60%) topped the sector list while Consumer Staples (XLP -1.31%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.60%) were at the bottom.
Purchasing Manager Index data released in the morning showed a contraction in manufacturing activity which echoed data coming from China.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained +0.38% today, moving back toward recent highs. The US 30y Treasury Yield topped 3% for the first time since 2019. The 10y and 2y Treasury Yields also rose today. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were lower. Silver and Gold continue to sink, credit to the strengthening dollar. Brent Oil is at $107 per barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 1.03, remaining in a bearish range. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains deep in the Fear range.
All of the big six mega-caps gained today. Meta (FB) led the gains with a +5.32% advance. Amazon (AMZN) just barely closed with a gain, rising +0.18% for the day after dipping nearly 5% earlier in the session.
Meta and Nvidia (NVDA) both gained +5.32% to top the mega-cap list. PepsiCo (PEP) was at the bottom of the list with a -2.30% decline.
All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today, most advancing more than 4%. Roku (ROKU) was the top gainer with a +11.01% advance. DataDog (DDOG) and Niu Tech (NIU) were the two decliners, dropping by -0.48% and -1.05%, respectively.
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Looking ahead
The big news this week be on Wednesday with the Fed interest rate decision. For tomorrow, we will get Factory Orders and the JOLTs Job Openings report for March. In the afternoon, the weekly API Crude Oil Stock report will arrive.
Pfizer (PFE), AMD (AMD), Airbnb (ABNB), Starbucks (SBUX), and Hilton (HLT) are among the earning reports for Tuesday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The late session rally wasn't enough to move the one-day regression trend line to an uptrend.
The one-day and five-day trend lines and the trend line from the 3/29 high are pointing to a -1.52% decline for Tuesday.
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Wrap-up
I'm not sure the rally in the late afternoon today means much. The put/call ratio is still high. So as some investors turned bullish, there are still plenty of investors that are betting on further declines.
There's not much to go on for expectations on Tuesday, but we can probably look forward to more choppiness as investors prepare for Wednesday's Fed decisions.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/28Summary: Strong earnings from big tech helped boost the stock market on Thursday, led by Meta, PayPal and Qualcomm.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, April 28, 2022
Facts: +3.06%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 34% Green
Good: Gain on higher volume, long lower wick shows bullish reversal
Bad: Nothing
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Green body above long lower wick, short upper wick
Advance/Decline: 1.26, more advancing than declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (+2.47%), DJI (+1.85%), RUT (+1.80%), VIX (-5.09%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +4.00%) and Communications (XLC +4.00%) at the top. Industrials (XLI +1.13%) and Utilities (XLU +1.11%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Strong earnings from big tech helped boost the stock market on Thursday, led by Meta, PayPal and Qualcomm.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared +3.06% on higher volume than the previous day. The 34% green body sits above a long lower wick showing a bullish reversal to the upside mid-day. The closing range of 83% comes after a little profit taking at the end of the day. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks.
All indexes had great days. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +2.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.85%. And the Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +1.80%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated, but declined by -5.09% today.
All S&P 500 sectors gained. Technology (XLK +4.00%) and Communications (XLC +4.00%) tied for the top spot on the sector list. Industrials (XLI +1.13%) and Utilities (XLU +1.11%) were at the bottom.
The morning dip was probably due to economic data that showed the economy shrinking in the first quarter despite higher prices. The combination is a recipe for stagflation, one of the biggest market evils. Initial Jobless Claims hit the forecast exactly at 180,000 for last week.
The US Dollar just won't quit. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by another +0.65% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked higher with Treasuries. Brent Oil rose to $107 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) lowered slightly to 0.935. The CNN Fear & Greed index landed in the middle of the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index dropped to 46.25.
There were big gains for the big six. Meta (FB) rose +17.59% despite mixed results. The surprise came in unexpected user growth. Microsoft (MSFT) continued it post-earnings gains with a +2.26% advance today. Alphabet (GOOG) rebounded a bit from yesterday's loss, advancing by +3.82% today.
Apple (AAPL) and Amazon(AMZN) both gained over 4% ahead of their earnings releases in the evening. Both were down in extended hours trading. Apple beat expectations but provided a cautious outlook for Q3 due to the impact of shutdowns in China. Amazon disappointed on results as the surge in consumer online spending during the pandemic is tapering off.
Meta was the top mega-cap, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) which gained +7.42%, likely thanks to Qualcomm's performance. Novo Nordisk (NVO) fell by -1.23% to end at the bottom of the mega-cap list which had only four declining stocks.
On the Daily Update Growth List, it was Pinterest (PINS), Upwork (UPWK) ,and PayPal (PYPL) that soared on earnings results, all rising more than 10%. Pinterest topped the list with a +13.55% gain. Four stocks ended up with losses at the bottom of the list. Ehang Holdings (EH) had the biggest decline, losing -1.38% today.
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Looking ahead
PCE Price Index Data for March will be released tomorrow morning. We will also get the Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations numbers for April.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) both Chevron (CVX) report earnings in the morning. AbbVie (ABBV) and Honeywell (HON) are also notable reports for Friday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
After a dip in the morning, the Nasdaq headed back toward the 13,000 support/resistance area, stopping short of 13,000 before a bit of profit taking before the close.
That action created a one-day trend line that points to a +4.36% advance for Friday. The index is unlikely to rise that much in one day, especially given Amazon will most certainly decline.
If sentiment turns bearish and the index returns to the five-day trend, that would meet up with the trend line from the 3/29 high and mean a -2.82% decline to end the week.
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Wrap-up
Something like 40% of Nasdaq companies reported earnings this week. Overall earnings continue to show strong performance from public companies across sectors and sizes. Leaders are cautious about the next few quarters which will continue to make investors cautious.
Tomorrow could be a good signal of just how investors feel after taking the whole week of reports in view.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/27Summary: Equities were mixed as the US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro and Japanese Yen.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Facts: -0.01%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 21%, Body: 4% Red
Good: Lower volume on decline
Bad: Lower high, lower low, closing range, long upper wick
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thing red body near bottom of candle underneath a long upper wick
Advance/Decline: 0.51, two declining for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.21%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (-0.34%), VIX (-5.73%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.48%) and Materials (XLB +1.47%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) and Communications (XLC -2.23%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Equities were mixed as the US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro and Japanese Yen.
The Nasdaq closed just -0.01% lower after a morning rally failed and turned into afternoon selling. The 4% red body underneath a long upper wick shows the round trip to intraday highs that eventually resulted in a 21% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) did better, helped by Microsoft and the Technology sector. It closed +0.21% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained by +0.19%. Small-caps did not fare well, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining -0.34%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -5.73%.
Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Technology (XLK +1.48%) led the list with help from Microsoft. Materials (XLB +1.47%) was the next best sector. Communications (XLC -2.23%) was at the bottom of the sector list, brought down by Google and Facebook losses.
The US Dollar continues to strengthen. The index (DXY) that measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, rose +0.68% today. It is up more than 5% for the month. Treasury Yields rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold continued to drop. Brent Oil remains around $105 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.937. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains deep in the Fear region.
Microsoft (MSFT) led the big six mega-cap list with a +4.81% gain after strong earnings. Alphabet (GOOGL) led the declines with a -3.75% loss after taking another hit on advertising revenues. Meta (FB) declined by -3.32% as investors expected a similar fate, but then the company surprised with stronger-than-expected user growth and the stock rose % by 18 in extended trading.
Visa (V) was the top mega-cap, gaining +6.47% after telling investors there was no impact on the business from economic and geopolitical situations. Mastercard (MA) rose +5.07% thanks to the Visa news. Alphabet and Facebook were the worst two mega-caps for the day.
JD.com (JD) led the Daily Update Growth List with a +7.91% gain. Enphase (ENPH) deserves an honorable mention after climbing +7.72% to land in the second spot thanks to strong earnings. Beyond Meat (BYND) is also notable. The stock gained +30% intraday on misunderstood news coverage. After the news was clarified, the stock dropped but held onto a +7.57% gain.
Roku (ROKU) was at the bottom of the list again, declining by -7.63% today.
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Looking ahead
We'll get the first look at GDP for Q1 on Thursday. We'll also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
The big six mega-caps will finish out their earnings season with Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) reporting on Thursday. In addition, Mastercard (MA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), and McDonald's (MCD) are among many more reporting in this busy earnings week.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
If the one-day trend continues into Thursday, that will be near the trend line from the 3/29 high and result in a +0.47% gain.
The five-day trend line points to a -2.24% decline.
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Wrap-up
Earnings continue to surprise in multiple ways. While Meta faces some of the same earnings pressures as Google, the company was able to show strong user growth and excite investors. Overall the earnings season continues to show companies outperforming and showing a positive outlook even amidst headwinds.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/26Summary: Investors sold off growth stocks ahead of big tech earnings this week, fearing the worst for the outlook on future growth. Microsoft and Google painted different pictures with their earnings reports after the market closed.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2022
Facts: -3.95%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 0%, Body: 100% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Sell-off on high volume, no upper or lower wicks
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: 100% red body, no wicks
Advance/Decline:
Indexes: SPX (-2.81%), DJI (-2.38%), RUT (-3.26%), VIX (+24.06%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.14%) and Utilities (XLU -1.00%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.06%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Investors sold off growth stocks ahead of big tech earnings this week, fearing the worst for the outlook on future growth. Microsoft and Google painted different pictures with their earnings reports after the market closed.
The Nasdaq dropped by a huge -3.95% on higher volume the previous day. The candle is 100% red body with no upper or lower wicks. Prices fell sharply in the morning before pausing and then continued the sell-off late in the afternoon. There were over 8 declining stocks for every advancing stock.
Small-caps were hit hard as well. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -3.26%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by -2.81% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.38%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +24.06% closing at its highest level since early March.
Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.14%) ended the day with gains. Utilities (XLU -1.00%) was the next best sector. Technology (XLK -3.73%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -5.06%) had the biggest losses.
Economic data today was not far off expectations but did arrive lower than forecast. CB Consumer Confidence for April registered at 107.3 compared to the forecast of 108.0. New Home Sales in March were 763,000 compared to the forecast of 765,000.
API Weekly Crude oil Stock was higher than expected. There were 4.8 million barrels compared to the forecast of 2.2 million barrels.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by another +0.56%, adding more pressure to large multinationals whose international revenues are impacted by a strong dollar. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also declined, showing the negative sentiment for corporations. Brent Oil rose to $105 a barrel. Timber continued its sharp decline over the past week while both Copper and Aluminum are also declining sharply.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.927. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped nearly to Extreme Fear.
All of the big six mega-caps had massive declines, but none more than Tesla (TSLA) which dropped by -12.18% on fears of how the Twitter deal might impact Tesla. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped by -3.74%, but beat earnings expectations and rose by +4.51% in the after-hours market. Alphabet (GOOG) fell by -3.04% and continued declining another -3.19% after its earnings report.
Only two mega-caps, Pfizer (PFE) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), advanced. Even those two advanced only a bit, gaining +0.16% and 0.04% respectively. Tesla was at the bottom of the mega-cap list.
The Daily Update Growth List had only one advancing stock. Niu Technologies (NIO) rose by +3.47%. The biggest loser on the list was Roku (ROKU) which declined by -9.52%.
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Looking ahead
The Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories (not including Auto) for March arrive in the morning. After the market opens, Pending Home Sales for March and the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be available.
Meta (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), and PayPal (PYPL) are the high-profile earnings reports for tomorrow. In addition to those, T-Mobile (TMUS), Boeing (BA), ADP (ADP), ServiceNow (NOW), and Ford (F) report among many others on another busy earnings day.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq could not hold onto yesterday's close above the 13,000 support area. After opening in the positive, it quickly fell to end the day at its lowest close since 2020. Year to date, the index is down -20%.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, it would require a +1.76% gain tomorrow.
The five-day and one-day trend lines point to similar spots, around a -1.34% decline.
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Wrap-up
Fears gripped the market today. How will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter impact Tesla? What will the outlook be for corporate America as economic and geopolitical issues continue? Is a recession on the horizon?
And yet, the fears that dropped Tesla by 12% are just that. Fears. Fears that are not based on any material change in Tesla's performance. Fears on the outlook for big tech? With the exception of Google, earnings reports have been positive. Not only the results, but Visa reports no impact from recent events and improved their outlook. Microsoft expects to continue driving more adoption of digital technologies. More to come later this week will paint a fuller picture.
Is a recession on the horizon? Maybe, or maybe not.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/25Summary: Investor sentiment changed mid-day, reversing a gap-down open into gains across all major indexes by the end of the day.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, April 25, 2022
Facts: +1.29%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 89% Green
Good: Gains on higher volume, great closing range
Bad: Lower high, lower low
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Piercing candle that opens gap-down but ends day with gain
Advance/Decline: 0.94, slightly more declining than advancing stocks
Indexes: SPX (+0.57%), DJI (+0.70%), RUT (+0.70%), VIX (-4.22%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +1.50%) and Communications (XLC +1.37%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.69%) and Energy (XLE -3.31%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Investor sentiment changed mid-day, reversing a gap-down open into gains across all major indexes by the end of the day.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.29% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The candle has an 89% green body sitting above a small lower wick and the day ended with a 98% closing range. The lower high and lower low continue a downtrend, but the piercing candle that starts with a gap-down and ends with gains could signal a reversal. There were slightly more declining than advancing stocks for the day.
The other major indexes all have longer lower wicks as they dipped further after open before the Nasdaq led them higher. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with a +0.70% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also advanced by +0.70%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.57%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -4.22%.
Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended the day with gains, and another ended the day flat. Growth sectors led the way with Technology (XLK +1.50%) and Communications (XLC +1.37%) having the best gains. Utilities (XLU -0.69%) and Energy (XLE -3.31%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The US Dollar index (DXY) continues to climb, rising +0.61% today. The US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold continue to drop sharply as the US dollar rises. Brent Oil ended the day near $102 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained above 1.0, ending the day at +1.027. That indicates that investors are hedging despite the gains in growth stocks today. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear range.
Of the big six mega-caps, only Tesla (TSLA) declined. It's possible Tesla investors are worried about possible sales by Elon Musk to fund his purchase of Twitter. Alphabet (GOOG) led the gains in the group with a +3.04% advance.
Alphabet was also the top overall mega-cap, followed by Novo Nordisk (NVO) which gained +2.73%. Big energy companies were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the biggest loss, declining by -3.37% today.
There was a lot of green in the Daily Update Growth List. Snowflake (SNOW) was at the top of the list, gaining +7.56%. There were only a handful of declining stocks, mostly Chinese companies. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -2.94% today.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will kick off with an update on Durable Goods Orders for March. After the market opens, we'll get New Home Sales for March. CB Consumer Confidence for April will also be published after the market open. In the afternoon is the Weekly API Crude Oil Stock update.
Big tech kicks off earnings this week (With the exception of Tesla, which went early in order to announce on 4/20). Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) will report after the closing bell on Tuesday.
In addition, Visa (V), PepsiCo (PEP), Novartis (NVS), United Parcel Service (UPS), Texas Instruments (TXN), HSBC (HSBC), General Electric (GE), Chubb (CB), 3M (MMM), Sherwin-Williams (SW), General Motors (GM), Chipotle (CMG), and Enphase (ENPH) report among many others.
It is not just a long list of big companies reporting, but the diversity across sectors and markets means we will get a very real look at performance and, more importantly, outlook for corporate America in the current economic and geopolitical context.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq opened with a gap-down but then received support mid-day and marched higher, closing above the 13,000 support area.
If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, it would mean a +1.37% advance.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that will result in a -1.15% decline.
The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -3.20% decline.
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Wrap-up
Did Elon Musk cause the market to reverse to the upside? That's what some think. It very well could be true. His purchase of Twitter may have turned sentiment toward buying growth stocks and carried the Nasdaq higher, followed by the other indexes.
What matters now is the story that comes out of tomorrow's earnings reports and through the rest of this week. Investors will be watching closely the results, but even more so the underlying metrics for each business and the outlook for executives. They will get that story across several industries and from companies both big and small.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/22Summary: Indexes continued to dip as investors absorbed the likely 50-basis point interest rate hike coming in a few weeks.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, April 22, 2022
Facts: -2.55%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 86% Red
Good: Lower volume
Bad: Drop below 13,000, closing range and advance/decline
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Large red body with small upper wick
Advance/Decline: 0.24, four declining for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-2.77%), DJI (-2.82%), RUT (-2.55%), VIX (+24.38%)
Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -1.57%) and Utilities (XLU -1.68%) at the top. Health (XLV -3.65%) and Materials (XLB -3.74%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Indexes continued to dip as investors absorbed the likely 50-basis point interest rate hike coming in a few weeks.
The Nasdaq fell -2.55%, only pausing briefly at 13,000 before dipping below the support area. The only good news was that volume was lower than the previous day, signaling some slowdown in selling. But buyers were not present as seen by the 86% red body and 3% closing range on the candle. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) matched the Nasdaq's decline, also falling by -2.55%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -2.77%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.82%. The VIX Volatility shot up by +24.38%.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Even the best sector for today, Consumer Staples (XLP -1.57%), fell more than one percent. Utilities (XLU -1.68%) followed Consumer Staples at the top of the list. Health (XLV -3.65%) and Materials (XLB -3.74%) were the worst-hit sectors.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for April was 59.7, exceeding the forecast of 58.2. The Services PMI came in lower than forecast at 54.7 compared to the expected 58.0.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit another recent high, rising by +0.49% today. The US 30Y Treasury Yield rose today while the 10y and 2y yields declined slightly. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate bond prices declined. Silver and Gold prices both declined sharply as the USD dollar rose and scared off investors from the safe-haven metals. Brent Oil dipped to near $105 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) is up above 1.0, ending the day at 1.11. The CNN Fear & Greed index fell back into the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index (measured on Wednesdays) rose to 74.05 after dropping to 63.29 last week.
All big six mega-caps declined. Alphabet (GOOG) fell the most, declining by -4.26% today. Tesla (TSLA) held up the best, declining only -0.37%.
Only one mega-cap gained. Alibaba (BABA) ended the day with a +0.58% advance. The worst mega-cap was Verizon (VZ) which declined by -5.64% and helped lead the rest of the market lower with a disappointing outlook during its earnings report this morning.
Twitter (TWTR) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +3.93% gain. Other gainers on the list were mostly Chinese stocks. Chewy (CHWY) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -6.76% today.
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Looking ahead
Coca-Cola (KO), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), and Whirlpool (WHR) are a few of the earnings reports to kick off a huge earnings calendar for the week. The remaining five of the big six mega-caps report next week along with several other reports that will be closely watched for outlook more important than results.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq just briefly picked up support at 13,000 before diving lower today.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would meet up with the five-day trend line for a +1.29% gain on Monday.
The one-day trend line points to a continued sell-off and a decline of -2.23% to start the week.
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Wrap-up
As a 50-basis point interest rate hike is nearly certain at this point, the good news is that the Fed (other than Bullard) are not entertaining a massive 75-basis point hike which hasn't happened since the 1990s.
Take a breather this weekend. We all deserve one.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/21Summary: The Fed's Jerome Powell has spoken and a 50 basis point interest rate hike is practically certain. The day started out well but then equities slid as Treasury yields rose.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
Facts: -2.07%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 6%, Body: 79% Red
Good: Higher high
Bad: High volume distribution, long red body, advance/decline and low close range
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Large red body under a longer upper wick, outside day
Advance/Decline: 0.2, five declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-1.48%), DJI (-1.05%), RUT (-2.29%), VIX (+11.61%)
Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.65%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.85%) and Energy (XLE -3.17%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
The Fed's Jerome Powell has spoken and a 50 basis point interest rate hike is practically certain. The day started out well but then equities slid as Treasury yields rose.
The Nasdaq closed down by -2.07%. The intraday decline from the morning high was -3.91%. Ouch. A long upper wick sits above a 79% Red body that ends with a 6% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day as five stocks declined for every advancing stock.
Small caps had the worst decline, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping by -2.29%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -1.48% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.05%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +11.62%.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.09%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.65%) ended the day at the top of the list while Communications (XLC -2.85%) and Energy (XLE -3.17%) had the most severe losses.
The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 184,000, slightly higher than the forecasted 180,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index read 17.6 compared to a forecast of 21.0. The more impactful news was likely Jerome Powell's confirmation that a 50 basis point hike was on the table for May.
The US Dollar Index rose +0.28%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose with the gap narrowing between long-term and short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.972, its highest closing ratio since February. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index rose to 74.05 after dropping to 63.29 last week.
The only of the big six to gain today was Tesla (TSLA) which please investors with earnings yesterday and advanced by +3.23%. Meta (FB) had the furthest fall, declining by -6.16%. Amazon (AMZN) declined by -3.70%.
Only a handful of mega-caps gained today. Tesla was at the top of the list, followed by AbbVie (ABBV) which gained +1.16%. Facebook was at the bottom. The next worst was Nvidia (NVDA) which dropped by -6.05% today.
The only stock in the Daily Update Growth List to gain was Twitter (TWTR) which ended the day with a +0.77% advance. SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) were at the bottom of the list with -9.75% and -12.31% declines.
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Looking ahead
Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers for April will be published in the morning.
Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP), and SAP (SAP) top the list of big companies reporting earnings tomorrow morning.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq fell sharply after starting the morning with gains that took it just above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. It then sold off the rest of the day to create a new weekly low.
Returning to the five-day trend line would mean a +1.99% for Friday.
If the one-day trend were to continue into tomorrow, that would mean a -4.37% decline.
The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -0.59% decline.
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Wrap-up
If you're tired of Fed officials speaking publicly and markets reacting severely, I have good news for you. They now enter a two-week quiet period until the Fed meeting in the first week of May.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/20Summary: Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped sharply today as did the US Dollar index. Growth stocks led the Nasdaq lower while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
Facts: -1.22%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 84% Red
Good: Higher high, higher low
Bad: Mostly red body, closing range, higher volume on decline
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Mostly red body, barely visible wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.75, more declining than advancing stocks
Indexes: SPX (-0.06%), DJI (+0.71%), RUT (+0.37%), VIX (-4.91%)
Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.50%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.29%) and Communications (XLC -4.34%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped sharply today as did the US Dollar index. Growth stocks led the Nasdaq lower while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher.
The Nasdaq closed lower by -1.22% after starting the day in the green. The closing range of 11% and 84% red body show that selling dominated the day. There was higher volume on the decline and more declining stocks than advancing stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was able to gain +0.71%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained by +0.37%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.06%. The VIX Volatility Index continued lower, dropping by -4.91% today.
The three growth sectors declined while the other eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Real Estate (XLRE +1.89%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.50%) were at the top of the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.29%) and Communications (XLC -4.34%) were at the bottom.
Existing Home Sales for March were lower than forecast. The strong building permits and new home sales data from yesterday caused Timber prices to continue to move higher. Crude Oil Inventories were much lower than forecast, showing higher demand. The Fed Beige Books released in the afternoon showed slow steady growth but headwinds for companies on inflation and worker shortages.
The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.65%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined sharply. The 2y yield declined as well, but not as much as longer-term notes. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices followed Treasury prices higher (yields lower, prices rise). Brent Oil remained at $106 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.794. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained Neutral.
Of the big six mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) gained today, advancing +0.37%. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, dropping by -7.77% as it followed the Communications sector lower.
Thermo Fisher (TMO) was the best mega-cap for the day, climbing by +2.96%. Meta was at the bottom of the list, followed by Disney (DIS) which lose -5.56%.
The Daily Update Growth List only had two winners today. Twitter (TWTR) escaped the drawdown in the communications sector and gained +1.21% today to top the list. Probably most know who's at the bottom of the list. Netflix (NFLX) dropped by -35.12% today after losing subscribers for the first time in a decade.
Tesla (TSLA) impressed investors in its earnings release and was up over 5% in after-hours trading.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow will start with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Also before the market opens, we will get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April.
Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow. These will be his last comments before the quiet period preceding the May 3-4 Fed meeting. We can expect him to firm up a 50 basis point interest rate hike for May.
Philip Morris (PM), Blackstone Group (BX), AT&T (T), ABB (ABB), Snap (SNAP), KeyCorp (KEY), and American Airlines (AAL) are some of the earnings reports for tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq set a higher high today before losing the opening rally and selling the rest of the day.
If the one-day and five-day trend lines continue, we can expect a -0.16% decline for Thursday.
The trend line from the 3/29 high leads to a -2.41% decline for Thursday.
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Wrap-up
Netflix reported a 200,000 net loss in subscribers and projected another 2 million loss for the next quarter. That sent the stock price down by -35% and weighed down the Communications sector with bad sentiment which likely rippled through growth sectors as well.
Now we have a good report from Tesla which should help with investor sentiment. And it remains to be seen if Netflix's decline in subscribers is isolated from the leader, or will other streaming services report declines also.
Tomorrow we should see Jerome Powell firm up expectations for the rate hike coming in May. That should provide some stability for markets, removing (or confirming) fears of a larger hike which were stoked by various Fed officials over the past week.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/19Summary: Strong earnings reports thus far in the quarter helped investor confidence in the market and push indexes higher today.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Facts: +2.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 85% Green
Good: Solid green candle on higher volume, higher high, higher low, closing range
Bad: Nothing
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Mostly green body with small upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 1.93, almost two advancing for every declining stock
Indexes: SPX (+1.61%), DJI (+1.45%), RUT (+2.04%), VIX (-3.61%)
Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.90%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.10%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.65%) and Energy (XLE -0.81%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Strong earnings reports thus far in the quarter helped investor confidence in the market and push indexes higher today.
The Nasdaq rose +2.15% on higher volume than the previous day. The 93% closing range comes above a thick 85% green body. A short lower wick formed in the early morning while an even shorter upper wick formed at the close. Buying was dominant throughout the day as two stocks advanced for every declining stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) also performed well, climbing by +2.04% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.61% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +1.45%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated but declined by -3.61% today.
Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.90%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.10%) ended the day as the top sectors. Energy (XLE -0.81%) was the only declining sector.
Both Building Permits and Housing Starts exceeded the forecast for March. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was lower than expected, but overall oil prices dropped on fears of slower growth.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to rise, gaining +0.18% today. US 20y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Silver and Gold prices fell sharply. Brent Oil dropped to $1.07 / barrel after topping $110 earlier this week.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.782. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at Neutral.
The big six all gained today. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest gain, rising by +3.49% and closing above its 21d EMA and 50d MA.
Nike (NKE) was the top mega-cap for the day, topping Amazon's gain with a +4.12% advance. Pfizer (PFE) ended the day at the bottom of the list again, declining by -3.20% today.
The Daily Update Growth List did very well today with only three stocks declining, two of them being Chinese stocks which all underperformed today. Roku (ROKU) was the top stock of the day, climbing by +8.22%. However, the stock was down after hours by almost 6%, likely because of Netflix's bad news. At the bottom of the growth list is Twitter (TWTR) which declined by -4.73% today.
Netflix (NFLX) dropped -25% in after-hours trading. The company had the first subscriber shrinkage in over a decade. That's going to have an impact on the Communications sector tomorrow.
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Looking ahead
After the market opens on Wednesday, we will get Existing Home Sales data for March. Crude Oil Inventories will be released shortly after that. Beige Books will be released from the Fed in the afternoon.
Tesla (TSLA), Procter & Gamble (PG), ASML (ASML), and Abbott Labs (ABT) are some of the earnings reports coming on Wednesday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq rose throughout the day but stopped short of the 50d MA.
If the one-day trend line continues into Wednesday, the index could rise over the 50d MA and 21d MA, ending the day with a +1.11% gain.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -1.35% decline.
The trend line from the 3/29 high points to a -3.58% decline, but that seems unlikely given the current chart pattern. Some surprise bad news could change that.
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Wrap-up
The Nasdaq has been moving sideways, but within a wide trading range, for the past few sessions. Could this finally be the breakout we needed? We need to break from that range first which the top is around 13,685. Then it would help if we can close above the 50d MA and 21d EMA. Do all that on higher volume and with a high advance/decline ratio and it would build a lot of confidence for a move toward the 200d MA.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/18Summary: Stock indexes receded as treasury yields rose on the emerging likelihood of a recession in the next two years.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Facts: -0.14%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 57%, Body: 7% Green
Good: Closing range, lower volume on decline
Bad: Lower high, lower low, continued downtrend
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Spinning top, thin body in middle of candle shows indecision
Advance/Decline: 0.35, almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (-0.11%), RUT (-0.74%), VIX (-2.33%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.47%) and Financials (XLF +0.60%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.82%) and Health (XLV -1.10%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Stock indexes receded as treasury yields rose on the emerging likelihood of a recession in the next two years.
The Nasdaq declined -0.14%, ending the day near where it opened. That created a spinning top candle where the body is thin (7% green) and in the middle of long upper and lower wicks. Volume was lower than the previous day, and also indicated indecision as the index chopped up and down. There were almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) nearly ended the day positive after a late rally, but the result was a -0.02% decline for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.11%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped by -0.74%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -2.33%.
Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Energy (XLE +1.47%) and Financials (XLF +0.60%) were at the top of the list. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.82%) and Health (XLV -1.10%) were the biggest losing sectors. While defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list, the growth sectors of Technology (XLK +0.33%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.30%) ended in the positive.
The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.32%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Copper Futures rose sharply. Brent Oil continues to climb, closing above $110 today.
The put/call ratio rose to 0.794. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in between the Fear and Neutral range.
Five of the big six mega-caps rose. Apple (AAPL) was the only of the six to decline today, falling by -0.13% but recovering some losses later in the session. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain, rising by +1.96%. I moved Facebook (FB) back into the big six as its market cap remained above Nvidia (NVDA) for the past two weeks.
Bank of America Corp (BAC) was the top mega-cap for the day, climbing +3.41% after topping analyst estimates in its early morning earnings release. Pfizer (PFE) was at the bottom of the list, losing -2.41% and dragging the health sector lower.
Twitter (TWTR) rose to the top of the Daily Update Growth List, climbing +7.48% in another wild swing as the Elon Musk drama continues to unfold. Niu Technologies (NIU) was at the bottom of a long list of losers, declining by -6.72% to end up in the bottom spot.
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Looking ahead
Building Permits and Housing Starts data for March arrive in the morning before the market opens. The weekly API Crude Oil Stock will be reported at the end of the day.
J&J (JNJ), Netflix (NFLX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), IBM (IBM), Halliburton (HAL), Fifth Third (FITB), and Hasbro (HAS) are some of the earnings reports to watch for tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq continued its decline today but is still well above the 13,000 support area.
The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a -0.02% decline for Tuesday.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would mean a -1.58% decline.
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Wrap-up
If the indexes want to break out of the current decline, it's a good sign that Energy and Financials are leading us higher. These often lead at the start of upcycles and then growth and small-caps follow in later rotations.
Sustaining any uptrend will come down to how the earnings season plays out. Bank of America was a good surprise this morning.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/13Summary: Investors found reasons to be optimistic despite soaring inflation and a hawkish Fed. Oil prices soared again, but that was not enough the dampen the mood.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Facts: +2.03%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 89%, Body: 83% Green
Good: Closing range, steady climb through day, advance/decline ratio
Bad: Lower high, volume lower on gains
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low
Candle: Inside day, thick green body, slightly longer upper wick
Advance/Decline: 2.07, more than two advancing for every declining stock
Indexes: SPX (+1.12%), DJI (+1.01%), RUT (+1.92%), VIX (-10.06%)
Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.49%) and Technology (XLK +1.61%) at the top. Financials (XLF +0.00%) and Utilities (XLU -0.20%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Investors found reasons to be optimistic despite soaring inflation and a hawkish Fed. Oil prices soared again, but that was not enough the dampen the mood.
The Nasdaq advanced +2.03% on lower volume than the previous day. The candle has an 83% green body and an 89% closing range. The small upper wick formed in a dip just before closing as some investors likely took profits from a day of good gains. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed +1.92%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +1.12%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended the day +1.01% higher. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -10.06%.
Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Growth sectors led the list with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.49%) and Technology (XLK +1.61%) at the top. Financials (XLF +0.00%) and Utilities (XLU -0.20%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The Produce Price Index rose higher than expected. The index rose 1.4% in March compared to a forecast of 1.1%. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected but Gasoline inventories were lower than expected.
The US Dollar index (DXY) finally declined after a few weeks of steady climbing. It fell by -0.46% today. The 30y Treasury Yield remained flat while the 10y and 2y yields declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked short-term treasuries higher. Silver and Gold prices continued higher. Brent Oil is back over $105, ending the day at $108 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.716. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Neutral.
All big six mega-caps advanced. Tesla (TSLA) led the group higher with a +3.59% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) also gained over +3%.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +4.17% as the whole semiconductor sector rallied. AbbVie (ABBV) was the biggest mega-cap loser, declining by -5.00%.
Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List declined. Zscaler (ZS) topped the list, climbing by +8.17% today. PayPal (PYPL) declined by -2.85%, ending up at the bottom of the list. Chewy (CHWY) was the other declining stock in the list, falling by -0.46%.
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Looking ahead
Friday is a holiday for markets in the US. That means Thursday will be the monthly options expiration and it's a big one. Nearly $500 billion in single-stock options contracts will expire.
Tomorrow will kick off with Retail Sales data for March and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Later in the morning, we'll get a look at Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment.
Tomorrow's earning reports include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C ), and U.S. Bancorp (USB).
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq heading back toward the 50d moving average but was unable to clear yesterday's high.
If the one-day trend line continues, it would mean a +1.74% gain for Thursday.
The trend line from the 3/29 high and the five-day trend line point to a -2.42% decline.
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Wrap-up
Recent monthly expiration days have meant declines for indexes. Will investor optimism hold up tomorrow and take indexes higher? Or will options pressures be too much and we dip lower?
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/12Summary: We have our inflation data now as Consumer Price Indexes for March were released today. Large-cap stocks declined while small caps advanced.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, April 12, 2022
Facts: -0.30%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 15%, Body: 58% Red
Good: Not much, maybe higher high
Bad: Closing range, lower low, higher volume on decline
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Outside day, long upper wick over red body
Advance/Decline: 0.56, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.34%), DJI (-0.26%), RUT (+0.33%), VIX (-0.45%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.66%) and Utilities (XLU +0.38%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.97%) and Financials (XLF -1.09%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
We have our inflation data now as Consumer Price Indexes for March were released today. Large-cap stocks declined while small caps advanced.
The Nasdaq declined by -0.30%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The closing range of 15% comes under a 58% red body that is topped by a long upper wick. The upper wick formed in an early rally that failed and turned into distribution the rest of the day. A short lower wick formed as the index recovered some losses late in the session. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied +2.38% in the morning but gave back the gains to end the day with a +0.33% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.34%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.26%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -0.45%.
Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today, dominated by cyclical sectors. Energy (XLE +1.66%) and Utilities (XLU +0.38%) were the best two sectors. Health (XLV -0.97%) and Financials (XLF -1.09%) had the biggest declines.
As expected, soaring oil prices put the Consumer Price Index data at its highest year-over-year growth since 1981. However, Core CPI, which excludes oil and food items, rose less than expected. Could this be the start of a turning point in inflation?
The US Dollar index (DXY) continued its rise, climbing by +0.34% today. The 30y Treasury Yield advanced just slightly, but the 10y and 2y yields declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold continued to rise. Brent Oil briefly topped $105 again but ended just below at $104.70.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.710. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear range.
Checking in on the big six mega-caps, only Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) gained today, advancing +1.13% and +1.15%. Nvidia (NVDA) had the biggest decline, losing -1.88%.
Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Shell (SHEL) topped the mega-cap list with the first two gaining over 2% each. Danaher Corporation just barely held onto its mega-cap status ($200b market cap) after declining by -3.57% today and ending up at the bottom of the list.
There were some decent gains in the Daily Update Growth List, but most of the list declined. Cloudflare (NET) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) topped the list with +3.90% and +3.19% gains. The biggest loser on the list was Twitter (TWTR) which fell by -5.38%, giving back some of its recent advances.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow will bring the Producer Price Index data for March which is another take on inflation. Produce Prices are forward-looking as rising prices are passed along to consumers in the future.
Tomorrow kicks off earnings season for big banks as JPMorgan (JPM) and BlackRock (BLK) report. In addition, Fastenal (FAST), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) will report.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The outside day for the Nasdaq did not test any moving averages or support/resistance areas.
The trend line from the 3/29 high and the five-day trend line point to a -0.46% decline.
If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a -2.87% decline for Wednesday.
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Wrap-up
The inflation data is out there and is one less thing for investors to fret over. The producer price index data will be an interesting number to watch tomorrow. The February index was expected to be 0.6% but came in at 0.2%. March is forecast for 0.5%. Another surprise that puts PPI nearer to 0.25% would be good news.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/11Summary: Investors sold both equities and bonds ahead of CPI data coming this week that's expected to show record-high inflation and more motivation for the Fed to act aggressively.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, April 11, 2022
Facts: -2.18%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 4% (w/gap), Body: 74% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Gap-down, closing range, advance/decline ratio
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Gap-down at open, small upper wick, no lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.35, almost three declining for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-1.69%), DJI (-1.19%), RUT (-0.71%), VIX (+15.17%)
Sector List: Industrials (XLI -0.32%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.41%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.52%) and Energy (XLE -3.01%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Investors sold both equities and bonds ahead of CPI data coming this week that's expected to show record-high inflation and more motivation for the Fed to act aggressively.
The Nasdaq declined -2.18% by the end of the day, opening with a gap-down. The closing range of 4% and higher volume than the previous day shows a clear distribution day. The candle is 74% red with a small upper wick and a barely visible lower wick. There were almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock.
Small-caps held up the best with the Russell 2000 (RUT) only declining by -0.71%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by -1.69% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -1.19%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +15.17%.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors dipped today. Industrials (XLI -0.32%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.41%) were at the top of the list while Technology (XLK -2.52%) and Energy (XLE -3.01%) had the biggest losses.
The US dollar index (DXY) advanced by +0.14%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields advanced, hitting their highest point since early 2019. The 2y Treasury Yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Silver and Gold gained. Brent Oil dropped below $100 / barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) climbed to 0.863. The CNN Fear & Greed index fell back into the Fear zone.
All big six mega-caps declined with Nvidia (NVDA) leading the way, dropping by -5.20%. Tesla (TSLA) was the last of the six to stay above key moving averages but dropped below its 21d EMA today. Facebook's market cap rose above Nvidia last week, so it may be time to update the big six list again.
Only four stocks in the mega-cap list gained today. Novartis (NVS) had the top gain, advancing +1.10%. Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia were at the bottom of the list.
Despite the market losses, there were quite a few gainers in the Daily Update Growth List. Draft Kings (DKNG) had the biggest gain, advancing +2.99% today. Enphase Energy (ENPH) was at the bottom of the list with a -3.72% decline.
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Looking ahead
Consumer Price Index data arrives in the morning and is expected to be 8.4% year-over-year. There is a 10-year note auction in the afternoon.
CarMax (KMX) could be an interesting earnings report to watch for as remarks about the price of used cars could be useful to how inflation is tracking.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq gapped down at open today and moved lower. The next support area to test would be the round number 13,000.
The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a -0.04% decline for tomorrow.
The trend line from the 3/29 high ends with a -0.99% decline.
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Wrap-up
Tomorrow depends on the CPI data. If it's near or better than expected, we could see a bounce in the indexes. That bounce may be short-lived however as analysts don't expect the Fed to back off on aggressive action given it's a mid-term election year.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/8Summary: Friday was a continuation of this choppy week that saw more Fed officials take a hawkish stance toward policy to get inflation under control.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, April 8, 2022
Facts: -1.34%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 10%, Body: 69% Red
Good: Higher low, lower volume on decline
Bad: Lower high, closing range of 10%
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low
Candle: Inside day, red body in between tiny upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.27%), DJI (+0.40%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (-1.81%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Financials (XLF +1.01%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.92%) and Technology (XLK -1.40%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Friday was a continuation of this choppy week that saw more Fed officials take a hawkish stance toward policy to get inflation under control.
The Nasdaq declined by -1.34%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a 69% red body in between small upper and lower wicks. The closing range of 10% put the close below the 50d moving average. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.40%, helped by big energy and big finance companies. The S&P 500 (SPX) receded by -0.27%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -0.76%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -1.81% after hitting higher levels earlier in the week.
Seven of the eleven S&P 500 sectors ended the day in the green. Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Financials (XLF +1.01%) were the best two sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.92%) and Technology (XLK -1.40%) led the losing sectors.
There were no surprises in the World Agricultural Supply and Estimates (WASDE) report. Investors already know about the crisis in the food chain caused by the war in Ukraine.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained another +0.09%, ending the week at its highest point since May 2020. Treasury Yields continued higher as bond investors sell-off notes ahead of the Fed reducing the balance sheet. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to track lower. Brent Oil moved slightly higher but is staying near the $100 level.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.786. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to Neutral.
All of the big six declined, led by Nvidia (NVDA) which fell by -4.50%. Tesla (TSLA) is the only of the six to remain above moving averages, despite declining by -3% today.
Home Depot (HD) was the top mega-cap today, advancing +2.76%. The stock had been underperforming the market, including the Consumer Staples sector, so possibly investors are looking for a bargain. Nvidia was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, followed by Tesla.
Only four stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained. RH was the biggest winner, advancing +2.43% and followed by Fastly (FSLY) which rose +2.20%. Lemonade (LMND) landed at the bottom of the list with a -8.34% drop today.
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Looking ahead
There is not much economic news to kick off on Monday, but Tuesday will bring the Consumer Price Index data for March.
The week will also start off light with earnings reports and then pick up with Finance firms reporting later in the week.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dropped below the 50d moving average in the morning, recovered mid-day but then closed below that line to end the week.
The trend line from the 3/29 high and the one-day trend line point to a -0.21%.
The five-day trend line ends with a -1.95% decline.
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Wrap-up
There wasn't much news to change investor sentiment in either direction today, so more of the same continued into Friday. Equities chopped around while bonds sold off. The volatility will continue until more agreement is established on how quickly the Fed will reduce the balance sheet and how much they will increase interest rates.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/7Summary: Stocks weren't sure what to do on Thursday, but Bonds sold off as investors continue to digest what Fed actions may be in store for later this year.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, April 7, 2022
Facts: +0.06%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 72%, Body: 12% Green
Good: High closing range
Bad: Lower high, lower low, dip below 50d MA
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thin green body above a long lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.48, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.43%), DJI (+0.25%), RUT (-0.35%), VIX (-2.49%)
Sector List: Health (XLV +1.92%) and Energy (XLE +1.31%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.82%) and Communications (XLC -0.87%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Stocks weren't sure what to do on Thursday, but Bonds sold off as investors continue to digest what Fed actions may be in store for later this year.
The Nasdaq recovered from an intraday dip to close +0.06% higher. The candle has a 12% body in the upper half of the candle. It's above a long lower wick that formed in the first half of the day as the index plunged below the 50d MA. Prices recovered in the afternoon before the Nasdaq hit resistance at the 21d EMA and formed a short upper wick before close. The closing range was good at 72%, but there were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) was the best index today, advancing by +0.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.25%. Small-caps did not do well with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -0.35%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -2.49%.
Seven of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Health (XLV +1.92%) and Energy (XLE +1.31%) were at the top of the list. Real Estate (XLRE -0.82%) and Communications (XLC -0.87%) had the biggest losses.
The weekly Initial Jobless Claims were less than forecast. 166,000 claims were counted against the expectation of 200,000.
The US Dollar index (DXY) continued higher, climbing by +0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. The gap between the 10y and 2y continues to widen. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell for another day. Brent Oil dipped below $100 but then closed the day just above that mark.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Neutral. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 83.41 from 79.72 the previous week.
Three of the big six mega-caps ended the day with gains. Tesla (TSLA) gained +1.10%, followed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) which gained +0.62% and +0.18%.
Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap, followed by other Health sector stocks. Pfizer gained +4.33% today. Pfizer announces the acquisition of ReViral, a respiratory virus drugmaker. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Alibaba (BABA).
Chewy (CHWY) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. Chinese stocks dominated the bottom of the list with Ehang Holdings (EH) falling by -7.17% to land at the bottom of the list.
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Looking ahead
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, published by the USDA, will be published at noon tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped below the 50d MA mid-day before recovering and finding resistance at the 21d EMA before close.
If the one-day trend line continues, that would mean a +0.38% gain on Friday.
The trend line from the 3/29 high and the five-day trend line point to -0.98% and -1.47% declines.
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Wrap-up
The market is still sorting out what interest rate hikes and the balance-sheet runoff means for the rest of 2022. If the bond market is an indication, then we will likely see more volatility in equities, especially with growth stocks. Higher yields and the strengthening US dollar will especially put pressure on large multinationals that depend on repatriated revenues.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/6Summary: A look at the Fed meeting minutes didn't do much to alleviate investor worries over inflation and near-term Fed actions. That created a wildly volatile day for equities while the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, April 6, 2022
Facts: -2.22%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 26% (w/gap), Body: 47% Red
Good: Recovery from the intraday lows
Bad: Gap down at open, low closing range, high volume on decline
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Gap down, longer lower wick under a 50% red body.
Advance/Decline: 0.29, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.97%), DJI (-0.42%), RUT (-1.42%), VIX (+5.09%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.99%) and Health (XLV +1.52%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.37%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.55%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
A look at the Fed meeting minutes didn't do much to alleviate investor worries over inflation and near-term Fed actions. That created a wildly volatile day for equities while the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose.
The Nasdaq declined by -2.22%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The index opened with a gap down to start below the 21d EMA, continued lower until getting support at the 50d MA and recovering some of the loss. The candle has a 26% closing range, considering the full range from yesterday's low to include the gap. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.42%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -0.97%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.42%. The VIX Volatility Index rose another +5.09%.
Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day with Utilities (XLU +1.99%) and Health (XLV +1.52%) performing the best. Growth sectors led markets lower. Technology (XLK -2.37%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.55%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected, helping Crude Oil futures to drop.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose to +0.14%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. That continued to widen the gap after the yields inverted briefly last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to drop. Brent Oil dropped to $101.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.897. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range.
The big six mega-cap charts were crushed by the sell-off. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA) all broke below key moving averages. Only Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) remain above the three moving averages I track. Nvidia had the biggest drop, declining by -5.88% while Apple faired the best, declining only -1.85%.
Eli Lilly (LLY) along with the rest of the Health sector did well. LLY topped the mega-cap list with a +4.56% gain. Nvidia and Tesla were at the bottom of the mega-cap list.
All stocks in the Daily Update Growth List declined. Twitter (TWTR) had the smallest decline, falling only -0.41%. The biggest declines were from Beyond Meat (BYND) and Cloudflare (NET), which both fell over 8%.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow will kick off with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as well as several Fed members are scheduled to speak throughout the day.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq opened the day below the 21d EMA and continued lower before getting support at the 50d MA.
The trend line from the 3/29 high, the five-day trend line, and the one-day trend line all point to a +0.30% advance for tomorrow.
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Wrap-up
It seems that the Fed will shed $95 billion a month from the balance sheet and raise interest rates 225 more basis points before the end of the year. That will be three 50 point increases and three 25 point increases. The good news, is now we know. The bad news is that the impact on your favorite equities may not be over yet.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/5Summary: Brainard turns hawkish and sucks the energy out of the market. Equities dropped as yields soared.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, April 5, 2022
Facts: -2.26%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 86% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Lower high, lower low, closing range
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.24, 4 declining for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-1.26%), DJI (-0.80%), RUT (-2.36%), VIX (+13.25%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.63%) and Health (XLV +0.21%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.11%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.34%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
Brainard turns hawkish and sucks the energy out of the market. Equities dropped as yields soared.
The Nasdaq declined by -2.26%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The lower high and lower low as well as the low closing range all mark a bearish day of distribution. The red body covers 86% of the candle and leaves behind an 11% closing range. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined the most, losing -2.36$. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by -1.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -0.80%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +13.25%.
Only four of the eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors, all defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +0.63%) and Health (XLV +0.21%) were the top gainers. Technology (XLK -2.11%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.34%) had the most significant declines.
Services and non-Manufacturing PMI indexes were slightly lower than expected. The trade balance also showed a more negative picture than forecast, but not too far off the expectation.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose but the yield curve continues to recover from the temporary inversion last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Brent Oil is hovering near $105 a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.753. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward the Fear range but remains close to Neutral.
All big six meg-caps declined. Nvidia (NVDA) declined by -5.22%, closing below its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.55%, dropping back below its 200d MA. The other four remain above their moving average lines but are showing the same volatility as the rest of the market.
United Health (UNH) was at the top of the mega-cap list with a +1.52% gain. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -5.53% today. Alibaba topped the list yesterday.
Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List, RH (RH) and Twitter (TWTR) ended the day with gains. RH gained +7.10% after Josh Brown of Ritholtz doubled his position in the company. Beyond Meat (BYND) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -7.85%. The stock had plenty of company as more than half of the list declined more than 5%.
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Looking ahead
After the market opens on Wednesday, we'll get the weekly update on Crude Oil Inventories. The Meeting Minutes from the most recent FOMC gathering will be released in the afternoon, giving investors more detail into the conversations around inflation and the proposed Fed response.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq lost support at 14,500 on the economic data and then descended further after Brainard's public comments on inflation and the Fed response.
If the index is to return to the trend line from the 3/14 low, it would require a +4.34% advance. That is not likely to happen in just one day.
The five-day trend line is pointing to a +0.26% advance for Wednesday.
If the one-day trend line continues, the index will test the 21d EMA with a possible decline of -1.51%.
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Wrap-up
Why did Lael Brainard's hawkish views cause so much turmoil in the markets? She's considered one of the most dovish of the Fed governors. So it was a big deal when she said the Fed should draw down the balance sheet at a rapid pace. It also adds more evidence to the mix that the Fed will also raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month, compared to the 25 basis points last month.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 4/4Summary: Equities rallied on the first day of the week. Large-cap growth stocks drove the rally while Twitter soared 27% on news that Elon Musk bought a significant stake in the company.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, April 4, 2022
Facts: +1.90%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 92% Green
Good: Higher high, higher low, great closing range
Bad: Lower volume on gain
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Mostly green body, small lower wick
Advance/Decline: 1.18
Indexes: SPX (+0.81%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (+0.21%), VIX (+0.16%)
Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.25%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) and Health (XLV -0.83%) at the bottom.
Expectation:
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Market Overview
Equities rallied on the first day of the week. Large-cap growth stocks drove the rally while Twitter soared 27% on news that Elon Musk bought a significant stake in the company.
The Nasdaq rose by +1.90%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is 92% green body with a tiny lower wick and really no upper wick as the index ended the day with a 99% closing range. The higher high and higher low starts the week off in an uptrend. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks.
The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.81%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced by +0.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose by +0.21%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) moved higher by +0.16%.
Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.25%) were the top sectors, the former helped by Twitter's big gain. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) and Health (XLV -0.83%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Factory Orders for February met expectations.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.43%. US 30y and 10y Yields rose while the 2y Yield declined. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Brent Oil rose back above $105 for a barrel.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.640. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at the mid-point of Neutral.
All big six mega-caps gained with Tesla (TSLA) leading the way, advancing +5.61% for the day. Amazon (AMZN) closed back above its 200d moving average, gaining +2.93% today. All big six are above their key moving averages.
Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day. It advanced +6.62% along with many other Chinese stocks that rallied. Pfizer (PFE) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -1.22% today.
Twitter (TWTR) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. The company's stock price soared +27.12% after Elon Musk took a 9% stake in the company. Twitter was followed by Chinese Fintech companies. FUTU Holding (FUTU) gained +19.51% and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +13.74%. There were no decliners in the list, but Crowdstrike (CRWD) landed at the bottom, advancing only +0.52% today.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday morning will bring Import/Export data for February. We will also get the Services and Non-Manufacturing PMI data for March. The data shows the level of activity in those sectors. API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes in the afternoon.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq moved met resistance at the 14,500 level, but then closed above that level after a late-session rally.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/14 low, that would mean a +2.17% gain for Tuesday.
The one-day trend line points to a +0.77%.
The five-day trend line is still sloping downward from the 3/29 high. That line ends with a -1.79% decline for tomorrow.
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Wrap-up
It was a good start to the week. Investors seem positive about the news of withdrawals in Ukraine. It also helped to have the shiny object of Twitter's rally to attract attention to the market. We'll see if the rally can continue this week.
Stay healthy and trade safe!