DNN - Denison Mines -Bullish trends in Uranium 2024 and Beyond Uranium Fundamentals and Thematic backdrop set for bullish decade after many years of muted price action in uranium spot prices.
Miners are currently showing capital outlay at prices that are lower than cost of production. (over supply and stockpiles from Cold war and interest in alternative green energies)
Denison is a serious player in the space and will be one of the largest mid-level producers once the mines are up and running (after 2025) it has licensed mills / building sites in the "Persian Gulf" of Uranium in the world.
Denison name is known to retail investors and speculators but has gone sideways for a year. Bullish posture has maintained and Uranium is now in a position to trend toward $60+ dollars per pound.
This means that retail narrative could get involved in Denison
just posting this up to see where it is in the future.
*****Commodities pump of 2021-2022 was possibly not a fluke but a hint at a longer term trend for the decade******
DNN
DNNIDK still thinking DNN pushes to $2.14 ish b4 an ABC bullish correction and tests the orange U308 futures line. But If U futures dump here then DNN could meet the confluence at lower levels.
My bullish bias is supported by the fact that wave 5 seems to be still underway on the daily. Also Weekly & monthly charts still bullish tilt. & also DNN sitting on mid channel support.
I continue to think we move higher for now until proven wrong.
Long term investment in $DNNI have longed Denison Mines Corp as a long term investment. As it stands, nuclear energy is the cleanest and most efficient way to produce energy. With all the macro fundamentals, along with the narrative that oil can double from here in the next decade, I believe governments will be forced to look for reliable and high output energy production alternatives.
Countries like UK and France are already embracing this source of energy, others will follow.
I do not like the valuation here, but since this is a long term investment I am ready to stomach volatility against my position. Risk is 1%.
If macro fundamentals change by some miracle or DNN has major changes that may impact business growth I will jump out of the position.
Uranium is in an uptrend. Uranium miners should do very wellUranium futures are now tightening at the 21 MONTHLY moving average, above the 50 month moving average, and retesting the lows of 2014 and the highs of 2019. This is the type of signal I've been waiting for to pull the trigger.
Here's an example of a small cap uranium miner I like:
John Quakes is a great guy to follow on Twitter if you want to learn more about the industry and other mining companies.
Just be aware this is an extremely risky sector that's underperformed the broader market for a decade. We're only seeing relative strength this year. As always in markets, things change fast... but I think the tide is turning in this one.
All the best
Divergent on Denison Mines Corporation. DNNBearish, guys. Divergence on Jurik's relative strength and Directional momentum is crossing the median. We might be starting to draw a new zigzag in which event we are able to map potential goals before reassessment. There are two potential goals here, at which stage I will reassess the state on this stock.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
$DNN if it doesn't BO, might do a bit of sliding here - c/w U308$DNN firmly in the bullflag. Coming around nicely tracking on the VWAP... BUt looks like a reasonable chance it will slide down that falling wedge in line with Uranium prices, build up some RSI and away it can go again!
It may take off, and if it does that VWAP and waistline become support.
The case for Uranium: Master Plan with a Price Target of 100$+In the early 2000s, the flooding of the McArthur River and Cigar Lake mines were immediate black swan catalysts that further accelerated the existing bull market into a mania moving uranium spot prices to a peak of $150/lb in 2007. The flight to commodities as an inflation hedge following the Great Recession served as an additional catalyst underpinning the macroeconomics behind the commodity boom of the 2000s. The last bull run ended when higher supply combined with the fallout from the Fukishima nuclear disaster sealed uranium into a now decade long secular bear market. Given the lack of speculation, mines today have been idled and the industry has been in consolidation and liquidation ever since. Over the past decade, Uranium prices have descended into the abyss.
Because it costs more than $50/lb to mine uranium, the current spot prices indicate an extreme imbalance. The former Soviet state-owned-enterprise, now publicly traded Kazatomprom has forced cheap supply onto the market over the last decade, however overly bearish sentiment has held back the necessary investment in new mines and exploration leading to consistent annual supply deficits. New reactor construction in China and India has lead to strong growth in uranium fuel demand. Given the extreme asymmetry and cyclicality of uranium spot prices, investors are presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity.
On top of that, COVID19 has lead to further supply constraints. Cameco's Cigar Lake Mine, which accounted for 18% of worlds supply, was and remains closed. Now, mining companies such as Denison have started actively buying uranium off of the spot market to fulfill their obligations.
Its only a question of time until the remaining supply wont be enough to fill demand.
At that point, we could experience a bull market in Uranium and the mining companies of epic proportions.
Note that uranium bull markets are multi-year to even decade long affairs.
My estimation is that we will see prices go to around 50$ in the short term, and then continue a rise up to the 70-90$ region, where price could be sustained for longer periods.
However, on shorter timeframes, this longer term target could certainly be overshot, and by a lot.
Does 150$/lb sound realistic? Perhaps.
While we haven't had a bear market as severe preceding this bull market as we had in the early 2000s, you would need to account for other factors too.
Adjusted for Inflation, 150$ in 2007 would be around 200$ in todays prices.
On top of that, there could be additional catalists coming up along the way.
My plan is to start selling my miners once we reach the 70-90$ range, and let a portion run to see how high we can go. If we go significantly above 100$, I will make sure to not sell the rest of my shares below 100$ U308.
Keep in mind that miners tend top out before the price of actual Uranium. Catching the top will be difficult, and there probably wont be a lot of time for it.
My favourite ways to play this is to go long on $UUUU, $DNN, $CVV, $FCU, $NXG, $URE, $CCJ.
Since there are only about 20 publicly traded mining companies with (high) exposure to the uranium market, of which around 15 are viable investments in my oppinion, even a "spray and pray" approach probably will likely be able to reap in significant returns if my thesis plays out.
Once the tide rises, it wont matter too much in which boat youre in.