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Dow Jones 50% Fib Resistance and Doji CandleThe Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at $23,690 and closed at $23,719 today for a $285(+1.22%) gain. Price created a doji candle at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level which represents trader indecision at a critical Fib level. A doji candle is where price closes at, or near, the level it opened at with very small upper and lower wicks and resembles a "+" sign. This shows that neither bulls nor bears were able to move price with conviction in either direction and ended up leaving price essentially where it opened. The 50% Fib level is critical due to it being the midpoint from the all-time high and selloff low. A move above the 50% Fib would represent half of the losses seen during this selloff being recouped and give the market a bullish bias, while price remaining below the 50% Fib keeps the bearish trend in play. The price candles this week have all been gray which indicates that price is neutral with no momentum in either direction. Today's doji/indecision candle came on a day where the Federal Reserve attempted to front-run another bad unemployment data release as a way to prop up the U.S. economy by announcing a $2.3 trillion round of loans for small businesses and consumers, as well as states, cities and municipalities. They announced this loan program just before the unemployment numbers were released which indicates that they new of the numbers beforehand. The goal of the Fed with this latest round of bailout money appears to be an attempt to stem the tide of unemployment claims by incentivizing employers to take on loans(more debt) in order to keep employees on their payrolls. It also provides relief to states who have seen a record surge in unemployment claims which has put a big dent in state coffers. Today's unemployment data release showed that 6.6 million people filed for unemployment last week and comes as the previous two weeks saw 6.8 million and 3.3 million bringing the total to nearly 17 million filing for unemployment in just the past three weeks. The previous weekly record for initial unemployment claims prior to this virus-induced economic slowdown was 695,000 back in 1982. Not even the 2000 or 2008 market crashes saw this drastic amount of people joining the ranks of the unemployed. The data release today brings the official unemployment rate in the U.S. to just a little over 5% after starting the year at 3.6%, but the current rate doesn't reflect the true state of unemployment as not all those who have gone unemployed are eligible to receive unemployment benefits, nor are all of those who are eligible able to file due to the surge in filing causing state benefit sites to go down thus preventing everyone who is eligible from filing. The true unemployment rate as compiled by Shadow Stats is likely closer to 25%, or 1 in 4 Americans who are willing and able to work being unemployed. Even the Federal Reserve's $2.3 trillion loan program announcement today was not enough to convince traders to jump back in to markets as traders are likely losing confidence in the Fed's ability to prevent what is coming in the months ahead for all of the businesses now generating $0 revenue combined with the millions who are out of work and falling behind on bills. It's doubtful that people are going to rush out and spend as indiscriminately or frivously as they were prior to the coronavirus which is what our consumer-based economy needs in order to grow and thrive. Americans are likely going to focus more on catching up on bills, paying down debt and/or saving in general as this virus and the lockdowns associated with it have likely given people plenty of reasons to start taking their rainy day funds a little more seriously, as well as the amount of debt that they are willing to take on in order to fund their lifestyles. There is also the reality that many of the people who have gone unemployed over the past 4 weeks will not even have jobs to go back to as not all businesses will be reopening. Businesses who do manage to stay afloat until the economy reopens will likely still suffer going forward as the consumer base that they need in order to generate profits will not be as strong as it was leading up to the current economic slowdown. This will more than likely lead to the closing of stores and laying off of staff in order to survive and prevent going out of business which means that we are looking at a prolonged period of high unemployment and slowdown in economic activity. Overall, the current view on markets remains neutral even in the face of the Federal Reserve destroying true price discovery of "free" markets via trillions in bailouts, combined with the trillions in fiscal stimulus being provided by Congress. The bailouts and fiscal stimulus we've seen are a good bandaid and helping to prevent a complete freefall in markets and the economy in the short-term, but the underlying fundamentals continue to weaken the longer the economy remain shut down. We need to see 2nd and 3rd quarter company earnings before we will have a better idea of just how hard of a hit the economy is actually taking right now. Until then, it's all a guessing game and speculation as our leaders attempt to resolve this virus issue by just throwing money at it. We still don't know how long this virus will be around or how much more havoc it will wreak on not just the U.S. economy, but the global economy as a whole. We could be dealing with a global slowdown that lasts until a vaccine is created which may not be until mid-to-late 2021. That's an eternity in economic terms and means that we could be seeing trillions more in bailouts going forward thus preventing true, organic growth in markets while leaving the Federal Reserve as the main buyer and they are doing so with future tax receipts(our money).
TVC:DJI
by PrepForProfit
5
Watch Out BitcoinWatch Out Bitcoin 10 APR 20 With so many people watching Bitcoin I begin to wonder what it is they’re watching for. Are they only watching today for tomorrow or are they reviewing the past to keep other views open for observation. While action is slow I like to go back and verify previous signals like the gravestone doji we were left with at the end of August 2019. If you’re asking yourself what a gravestone doji is it is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that is formed when the top stem of the candle is greater than 60% of the candle height and the stem below the body is less than 5% of the body height. The color of the doji candle is irrelevant; it can be either red or green. It is a stronger signal if the gravestone doji is red and at the top of the trend. The opposite of a gravestone doji is a dragonfly doji and often has the opposite effect. We’ll cover that later in more detail another time I’m sure but I’ll add this reminder. It is also a reversal signal. So after seeing the August 2019 gravestone I knew to be aware of the possibility that Bitcoin price could go lower. Then when I saw the next gravestone doji on the weekly ending March 8 I knew I should let up on some of my Bitcoin holding and expect a possible lower entry point. I let go around 7300. We all know what happened next. With the climb Bitcoin has made since then it is easy to gain doubt and want to buy back in before the price really rockets. Did I jump back in around 4k? No. It was no longer a falling knife but it was still spinning and the following direction was in direct contrast to the study. That’s another reason all the other tools I use are so helpful and allow me to take it one day at a time with a clear and open mind concerning the facts I have before me. So which will we see first on the daily chart? Will today’s candle turn into a dragonfly doji or will another gravestone doji confirm the course we are on? I’m keeping my powder dry. If Bitcoin has reversed and heading to $100K it will make little difference if I get in at 4K or 9K as long as I’m not losing either. Happy Trading Everyone. Thank you for letting me shares my Bitcoin Study. I hope it helps you see the path forward in all your trades. Remember. This is not trading advice. It is for Educational Purposes only. Follow me if you wish. I do not use Twitter or Face Book. Please engage the like button and add your comments below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Flatratepete
Direction Change or Resistance Bounce?!Looking more longterm on the 4 hourly candles we can see that we formed a doji candle indicating short term directional change within the market. We just recently touched a MAJOR resistance point of the market around the area of 5600, which ultimately could create a nice looking double top. Watch closely how the 4 hourly candle plays out because this was a huge rejection from 5600 in the time of writing this. If we fail to hold that resistance point and breakout of it, we may see a short term bull-run commencing... Personally, I still got my bearish sentiment here and I'm still holding strong my 5600 short position with a tight stop loss at 5689. I feel like we will bounce off the resistance here and develop further downside momentum, as the fundamentals with the coronavirus around aren't looking too good. Gold and the Cryptocurrency market failed to act as a hedge against the general economy as we saw investors start to withdraw their funds...The market is simply moving with the economical crisis at the moment, and as swing traders, it is our goal to catch those huge impulse waves in either direction. Keep in mind it is only Sunday today, and the volume within markets tends to be rather low. Monday on the other hand, will open up with quite a GAP!! I am looking forward for the week ahead of us, as the opportunities are limitless! :) This is NOT a financial advice, trade at your own risk!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Proszi
3
S&P 500 Weekly DojiThe weekly S&P 500 chart shows a pattern that is similar to one seen in October of 2018 just before price lost -15% after a trendline break. Both instances saw price rising with bullish momentum-indicated by green price candles-and then a break of their uptrend support line. Both broke their uptrend support line with a significant weekly decline where price lost upward momentum and shifted to neutral, or no momentum, indicated by a gray weekly candle. The weekly candle that followed the shift to neutral in each breakdown was a doji with a long upper wick. The long upper wick indicates that traders attempted to buy the dip, but ultimately lost upward price conviction and closed the weekly price back near the weekly open, indicated by the small candle body. Doji’s are a sign of trader indecision and given the current virus outbreak, their indecision will likely lead to more selling.
SP:SPXShort
by PrepForProfit
14
Gold Doji Candles & $1700 On Deck#gold #gc1! – Gold has been trading in the upper end of its three-day range after selling off last week with other global markets, and the reversing back to the upside this week. Candle 1 shows the selloff back down to $1,560 last week. Candle 2 is a long-legged doji, or sign of indecisiveness in traders as they pushed price higher and lower during the course of the day, then ultimately closing price near where it opened. Normally the direction after a doji candle indicates the future trend. Candle 3 shows the reversal back to the upside after trader indecision the previous day. Candle 4 shows shows trader indecision again at the upper end of the weekly price range. Orange lines show the upper end of the range and where price is holding for now. I’m expecting a push higher on today's candle pointed to with the arrow as price is holding within the upper end of its three-day range. Ultimate resistance is shown in red, up near $1700. A push and close above that level would put $1750-$1800 on traders radar going forward on the march back to all-time highs near $2,000.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by PrepForProfit
EUR/USD - ShortI am looking to take this pair to the downside, however, we are still very bullish, today is the first bearish day we have seen. 4HR - We have seen a previous Doji candle and then coming down to touch the double bottom, bouncing off support. I would like to see this close below support, test as resistance to then take the short. Keeping in mind that we do also have the double top resistance area above that we could potentially touch first. No rush on this I will be watching closely for the right entry.
Short
by AaronSLuce
BTC first more significant correction/wick bellow 10250$.BTC first more significant correction/wick bellow 10250$. So far forming a hammer doji , but we need more information before confirming/assuming a more positive directing. The situation can easily turn and the hammer doji can transform into a hanging man pattern quite easily. So far staying neural to moderately bullish. Remember not to over leverage your trades as moves between 3-5% will happen more often than you think (especially at resistance).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by megaprofits