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Bitcoin Daily Update (day 302)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < L MA < S MA < M MA | Watch out for death cross Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel Horizontals: R: $4,070 | S: $3,581 Parabolic SAR: $4,068 Futures Curve: Backwardation with widening spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to pick back up Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1256% TD’ Sequential: R3 Ichimoku Cloud: Price is fighting hard to reenter that cloud. Relative Strength Index: Sticking below 50 Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -5.9% | 1m: +5.5% Bollinger Bands: Starting to trend bearish with price below MA Stochastic Oscillator: Quickly pulling back to oversold territory. Summary: Very unimpressed with the reaction that we are seeing from horizontal support. I wanted to see an immediate response in order to be confident that the breakdown on Wednesday was a shakeout before a 50%+ dead cat bounce. On the other hand I was watching for a close below yesterday’s low to provide final confirmation to exit longs and start scaling into shorts. Neither of those occured and that has me scratching my head. Bitcoin closed a doji that never fell below yesterday’s lows and that could be viewed as bears running out of ammunition under $3,800. However the longer we stay below the 33 MA (currently at $3,715) the more confident I will be that bears are maintaining control. If we hold here long enough for a death cross to occur then I will be moving very quickly into some short positions. There are a couple reasons why I am remaining tentatively bullish and considering adding to my long position after today’s close and that is the futures curve. Not only is it experiencing backwardation but the spread is increasing from 3% to 3.8% over the last 24 hours. Generally I would stay out of the markets when the waters are this murky. However, I believe that the backwardation with a widening spread is a strong enough indicator in and of itself for me to act on. The risk:reward also favors bulls in this area. Furthermore the funding rates have been very expensive over the past 24 hours for short sellers, about 10X the average. This is as important to me as the BTCUSDSHORTS chart which is showing a lack of short selling. When funding rates are this expensive for shorts then it tells me that BTCUSDSHORTS chart is not painting the full picture.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
4
GBPNZD DAY BEST LUCKY STAR DOJI STRATEGYTrading Doji candlestick as a stand-alone trigger signal is a bad idea. Price usually whipsaws around doji. Note #1: In technical analysis, the Doji candle is a neutral pattern if it’s used as a stand-alone candlestick. However, if the Doji candle it’s used in conjunction with the preceding price, we can establish a bullish or bearish bias. A whipsaw pattern involves price moving chaotically above and below a certain key support and resistance level. Whipsaw patterns are also referred to as false breakouts. We have developed our Japanese Doji trading strategy around this price feature. Step #1: For short trades we need a steady move downward, below the 14 –day MA Even though most traders used this Japanese candlestick pattern as a reversal pattern, we have found out through some testing that the Doji candle performs best as a continuation pattern. So the first step we need to undertake is to determine the trend direction. When we see the price moving steady downwards below the 14-day MA we have enough reasons to believe a downtrend is in progress. Step #2: Look for a Doji Candlestick to develop near the 14-day MA and inside the previous candle price range. Next, there are two more conditions that need to be satisfied for a valid trade setup. The first thing to consider is the location of the candlestick setup. We need the Doji candle to develop near the 14-period MA. Secondly, we need the Doji candle to be contained inside the price range of the previous pattern. Basically, this will lead to the formation of another pattern called an inside bar. So, we have a pattern within a pattern. Step #3: Whipsaw pattern: Look for a false breakout above the previous two-bar pattern. Go short once we recover and break below the Doji candle opening price Now, we’re going to bring to light how we use the whipsaw pattern to our advantage. The Doji candles are very well-known candlestick patterns for producing a lot of false breakouts. We also know that a break of a level against the prevailing trend has fewer chances to success. So, by putting all these pieces of the puzzle together we were able to develop one of the best Doji strategies, which eliminate the scenario where your stop loss is prematurely triggered. After the false breakout, we wait for the price to recover and we only sell once we get price breakouts the bearish Doji candle opening price. Note #2: We want everything to happen within the first candle after the Doji bar. So the false breakout and our entry should be immediately on the next bar following the Doji candlestick. Let’s now determine an appropriate place to hide our protective stop loss and a proper way to exit our trade. Step #4: Place protective SL above the current daily candle high. Take profit once we break below the inside bar pattern or a support level. We aren’t going to stay in this trade for a very long period of time. That’s the reason why we exit our profitable trade once we break below the inside bar pattern or nearest sup/res. When it comes to placing our protective stop loss, we can hide it above the high of the candle that triggered our entry. Long trade is just opposite setups.
Short
by Tradingstrategyguides
NZD/USD Trend Continuation: Channel Formation, Bull Flag on 4HNZD/USD has been bullish as of recently so we follow trend continuation. We are currently in a corrective state, but approaching structure levels. We see a trend channel that price is following, so if we continue this channel we should expect movement to the upside since we just finished a corrective wave. We can also see a large bull flag formation. If this is valid, and we see a break of the upper resistance of the channel, we should also expect further bullish movement. We see two bullish doji candles (circled in blue) which should be followed by a bullish move RSI is not oversold or overbought = room for movement in either direction
Long
by AidanMDang
Profits? duh. Multi time-frame analysis 2: A trade exampleOk, so I promised I'd make another effort to do more analysis. I am however currently in Taiwan travelling so this will be short. Here we have another example of how including multiple time-frame analysis in your trading routine can keep you profitable. Let's go back to 12th November last week on the OANDA:CADCHF (Use the back testing feature on your chart in a separate tab if you'd like to follow along more closely): As you can see there doesn't appear to be much going on. The Daily chart is looking kind of choppy from the previous couple of weeks, although there does appear to have been a bull run since September with a recent "Golden Cross" of the 50/200 EMAs and price still trading above these dynamic SR levels. At this point then, if you're even thinking of trading this pair, you might be feeling bullish. But what happens if we zoom out to the Weekly chart? This suddenly becomes a little more interesting. You first notice a wedge pattern forming and additionally weekly deceleration right at the 0.7650-0.7700 SR Zone. What are the EMAs doing? Well the 50EMA (Red) is below the 200 EMA (Blue). So the long term trend is clearly Bearish, and appears to have been for a while. With Weekly Price Action stalling in an important SR Zone, right at the topside of a wedge AND trading between the weekly 50/200 EMAs, you can see the picture is totally different from what were presented on the daily. With all this information and considering the choppy price action on the daily, it is fair to say that the lower time-frames could be presenting us with a prime intraday swing entry opportunity. It turns out we didn't have to look too far. Here is the 4hr chart just before we set an entry order - Almost too convenient, right? Lets breakdown what we're seeing here. Apart from the obvious Doji/High Test at the 0.7650 SR Level, we are also at the all important 0.618 Fib Retracement level (note below)**. Despite the apparent choppiness on the Daily/Weekly time-frames the 4hr chart is showing a new Bear run, identified cleanly by lower highs and lower lows. If that wasn't already enough confluence for you, price has also rejected the Daily Pivot Resistance Level (R1). For me this was the perfect time to set up an entry. I'll save entry placements for another time but here () is how I positioned my Entry and Stoploss (SL) levels. As it was an intraday entry that I fully intended to be in, I placed the entry fairly close to where price was trading. A quick note on SL - Some people love to wring as much out of their risk reward ratio as possible by placing their stops quite close to the top of the candle that they are trading off. Sometimes this works, but in my experience not enough to make an otherwise profitable trade... profitable. You'll notice that my SL was placed above the last Swing High on the time-frame I am trading off. If you check out this chart - You'll see that turned out to be a good choice. Price ranged for another couple of days in the end, and having that "breathing room" allowed me to remain in the trade and eventually reach my profit target at 0.7550, the next significant Daily Support level. So that's it for multiple time-frame analysis! I included this form of analysis in EVERY trade decision. Sometimes it can turn you off a trade, sometimes it can confirm one and just sometimes - like here - it can give you opportunities where you thought there were none! I hope you enjoyed this. Please leave your thoughts and your own styles in the comments below so I too might learn from you! Regards, ForexVader **Fibonacci Levels - Much like trend lines and SR levels, there can be a fair amount of debate over how these are drawn. I tend to get the best results from using actual close/open prices and not the high/low candle prices. It boils down to preference and experience. But experience says a lot, I am only using mine. Weekly completed - Daily completed trade -
Short
by ForexVader
Update on SPYEnded up taking a small loss on SPY calls in the morning as I was quick to cut the loss as I realized tons of selling pressure as well as the break of support trendline in the morning of todays open. If anybody took puts at the open as I mentioned I would do, you should be sitting on some nice profit right now, I would lock that profit here as SPY is at another inflection point. This is now an hourly chart and a clear doji candle has formed currently meaning we are looking at a good fight between bears and bulls. Break and candle close below yellow box is bearish or break above blue line known as 5ma and candle close above is bullish.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Vickk
Education post 13/100 – How to trade doji candlestick pattern?– A Doji is a small bodied Japanese candlestick pattern whose opening and closing are at the same or nearly the same price. – A Doji is usually part of common Japanese candlestick reversal patterns like the bullish Morning Star and bearish Evening star patterns – Because Dojis are found in a large number of reversal patterns, traders automatically think that the single doji is a reversal candlestick. But in fact, the doji by itself represents indecision in the marketplace. – A Doji breakout setup provides an excellent risk to reward opportunity for forex traders. The lowly doji is very unassuming in appearance. Typically, it looks like a plus sign but can appear as a capital “T” in the Dragonfly doji pattern or the shape of a nail in the Gravestone Doji. We are going to be discussing the first two types of dojis found in the “cheat sheet” above. These small candles can lead to large breakouts that either continue trends or reverses them. We are going to look at the way to trade these power packed price patterns with limited risk for maximum potential gain Typical candlesticks consist of a body that may be one of two colors; blue or red. A candle is blue if buyers were able to push prices above the opening price and were able to hold it until the close of the candle. A candle is red or bearish is sellers were able to push prices below the opening price and hold it there until the close. On the other hand, the doji candles have no color. The doji and long-legged doji illustrate the battle between buyers and sellers that ended in a tie. The opening price and closing price are in the same place as bulls were unable to close prices higher and bears were unable to close prices lower. How to Trade the Doji Breakout Ideally, you want to find a doji that has formed near a level of support like a trend line. You want to identify the doji high and the doji low as this will determine the support and resistance levels of a potential breakout.
Education
by GroundStoneHoldings
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 239)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “The 1h triangle comes to a head in about 13 hours. I can’t imagine consolidating $6,400 any longer than that.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50 Patterns: Wyckoff hinge Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,383 | R: $6,419 BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is entirely below bottom or triangle, will be interested to see if it closes that way Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Hovering on it / neutral Medium term trend (4 week MA): Weekly candle that just opened is well above / bullish Long term trend ( 32 Week): bearish Overall trend: Neutral Volume: Lowest weekly volume since the price has been > $1,000 FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351 Candlestick analysis: Weekly doji | back to back daily dojis with tweezer top and tweezer bottom (never seen that before) Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud with strong support at $6,400 is starting to thin TD’ Sequential: Weekly r4 | If Oct close < $6,390 then will be a r3 | 4h g2 is > g1 at $6,420 Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th' (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018 Price action: 24h: +0.14% | 2w: -0.34% | 1m: -2.99% Bollinger Bands: Price back above MA and top band in line with bear trend line. Indicates retest is likely Trendline: At $6,520 Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: 2 Up: $6,471 | 2 Down: $6,354 RSI: Stuck at 50 Stochastic: Monthly < 25 and looks like it is about 5 months away from bullish cross. Did a great job of calling the bottom of the last bear market Summary: After the last couple days didn’t lead to any solid significant conclusions I thought it would be best to heed some age old wisdom: when in doubt, zoom out I do not like the monthly chart other than for calling extremes (tops/bottoms) and the current environment made me think it was worth another look. That led to the following post: Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart Using the Stochastic and TD’ Sequential I came to surprisingly similar conclusion as I did in the 3 Day Comparison where I used mostly moving averages and trendlines. That has given me more confidence in my target but I will not allow it to cloud my judgement. I have not added any more to my position and I have not changed my overall game plan. I did call for the $6,400 trading range to come to an end by now and that turned out to be a bolder prediction that I thought. Meanwhile the traditional markets are really heating up and I will continue focusing on them while waiting for this range to break. Orders are still set to add to my ETH position at $198.4 | $194.9 | $187.7
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez