Doji
AUD/USD M/T shortHi guys,
In effect, this is an extension of my aussie trade posted pre-Trump (26th October 2016) in which we bagged 500 pips.
AUDUSD has seen rapid recovery off the back of both dollar weakness (mainly due to lack of details of the US administration's economic plans) and rapidly rising commodity prices, in particular iron ore (/it has rallied 10% recently, mainly based on speculation).
At present, the commodity currencies are more overvalued than any of their G10 counterparts at 15% in TWI terms, almost as much as they were a couple of years ago before they corrected substantially lower due to weaker commodity prices and rate cuts from the central banks (RBA in this case). Long term FX valuations point to AUD/USD fair value at 0.70.
RBA have sounded more optimistic on growth recently but $MS and others expect a slowdown in the housing sector, which could trigger an RBA cut. It is likely that the RBA wants to limit AUD upside in the n/t and is ready to soft its tone in case the FX rate appreciates excessively. Moreover, as the market could well price in more aggressive action by the Fed, relative mon pols support USD against AUD in coming months.
Iron ore futures need a reality check, which is my main reason for taking this trade (as well as favourable price action, esp on the weekly charts). RBA expects additional iron ore output from Brazil, as well as potential return of some output in China, to weigh on iron ore prices in the near term and doesn't see iron ore sticking around $90/metric ton. One could argue for days about whether iron ore prices should have rallied etc but one thing is for sure (as sure as you can be in this game!): iron ore prices need a correction. I see propensity for a correction down to as low as $80.
Looking at price action, upward momentum seems to be waning (bearish RSI div + 2 weekly dojis). A correction towards the 50% retracement of the Nov-Dec 2016 move seems likely, in my view.
GL all!
Gold Bounces Sharply Off the 21 Day MAGold sold off in the overnight session and tagged the 21 day MA at 1217.5 and then sharply rebounded to close just above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. I have been calling for a tag of that 21 day MA since Monday when price broke through the ice and closed below those moving averages. But now, price is trading above them and the future direction seems like it may be for Gold to rise and resume the C wave which would put the next target at 1276.
Let's take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. There have been 4 doji candles in the last 5 days. That's a good indication of sideways price motion so we may need another day or 2 before the next direction is established.
The volume profile chart shows a very elongated high volume node at 1226. I am watching to see if price will rotate back down and tag it and will it then continue to tag the POC? Or, is there enough strength to break past the short and intermediate term value areas? Again, we are in a waiting pattern.
Disclaimer: comments here are for education purposes only and should not be taken as trade advice. All trading decisions are your own.
Doji reject ma50-0,618 fibonacci- USDCHFPrice rejected moving average of 50 periods, creating a doji candlestick pattern. Waiting for a bearish movement till the ma200.
9950- make or break (big move coming up)9950 is such a big level for USDCHF, if this holds we could see a nice bounce.
BUY SIDE:
I highlighted what could be an inverted hammer (depending on how the daily candle closes) if we keep a bullish body to the candle, 9950 could be a major bounce level for a big move higher, with tight stops below 9950.
SELL SIDE:
if 9950 doesn't hold I think the break lower will be severe, 9650 looks like the next best place to target.
Summary:
If there's a convincing bounce off 9950 i'll buy in with tight stops below 9950. IF it goes flat and breaks, i'll sell the break of 9950 targeting 9650 while locking in profit along the way.
There's big news this week that could cause lots of USD volatility so this will be tricky to trade, I'll update as things move forward.
USDCAD Sell Signal for DaytradersHi to all. This is my first chart published. Im brazilian and I speak english with some difficulties. Sorry!
USDCAD in short term is overbought and I think it will make a retracement on Monday. There are two other reasons to do this: the price made a divergence in H1 timeframe and make a Doji Pattern in D1 timeframe.
Nice to meet the community and good lucky for all in your decisions!
US30 in upward tunnelUS30 has reach the lower side of the uptrend tunnel. Possibly another test of 20k or retest of the weekly trend line. If it breaks the weekly and forms a flag it could be time to sell the giant. Otherwise we might see 20k+.
EUR/USD- Broke through the monthly resistance after failing to brake on the 61.8% fib support. (4h)
- Broke through the monthly resistance and bounced back from the lower channel line to the monthly support. (D)
- On the weekly chart we see a "doji" forming right beneath the monthly resistance. (W)
--> Wo wait for further price action to decide whether to go long or short.
Monthly resitance USDCHFUSDCHF hit the monthly resistance 3 times before breaking the upper triangle line to the downside. The daily chart shows a double top on the monthly resistance which also shows a parish momentum. With a doji formed on the weekly chart and a bearish move following it right away we have a possible bearish move following.
Short GBPUSD (cautin monthly res)GBPUSD broke through the trend line on all three timeframes (W; D; 4h). On all three he made a pullback, on the 4h chart he made a pullback with a doji which implies further bearish momentum.
EURCHF Long - Right nowGo long on this very good bullish reversal candlestick pattern with confirming price action at a support area.
This is the turning point for EURCHF.
Get ready for a big move up.
Stop goes underneath the doji candlestick OR the brexit low.
Gold prices could test 1185 on H1 IHS patternThe daily chart for gold closed in a doji yesterday and this could signal a near term pullback in the declines. The 1-hour chart shows a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern in the making with the right shoulder yet to be formed.
Expecting a reversal near 1170 - 1167.50 region. If this happens, gold could then rise back to the neckline at 1175 followed by a push to 1185 - 1187.50 to complete the head and shoulders pattern.
UJ Short!ABCD pattern has completed and I entered on a Short order with my SL being at the 4 Hour S&R line, just above the high. That is a approximately a 20 pip stop loss, also looking for more confluence, primarily a candle reversal pattern.
XAUUSD - Long SetupWith this Doji pattern we expect a reversal movement.
Long Setup:
Entry: 1185.39
TP: 1252.96
SL: 1160.761
Happy trade :)
Bund (DE10YBEUR) - bullish signals in trendAfter an analisys, on the weekly we can see how the price shape a bullish harami.
Going on the daily chart we can see that the price action in trend has started with a doji that will be a resistance point.
Now we are a bit late with time for entry but the price pierced 38,2% Fibo.
Anyway, I think we can go long with first target at the other Fibo level at 164,78 price level with SL at low of the doji.
I'll glad if someone will give below suggestions or his prospectives.
Thanks.
AUDUSD - good signals to think at the end of the correctionI think the price correction is completed.
In the H4 time frame we have three reversal patterns, an inverted hammer, an engulfing and a doji.
Furthermore, first two reversal signals shape a tweezers top.
Thus, we have different reversal signals that can give us short opportunities that could push the price near 123,6% Fibo retracement or in 0,71437 price level.
This price level is 23,6% retracement level calculated on daily chart on high at 0,81625 and low at 0,68290.
This level is important because is a good support, between 24/05/2016 and 30/05/2016 price action shaped tweezer bottom with a beautiful hammer.
Furthermore the lower hammer shadow touched a long trend line (you can see that on daily chart).
So, if the price action will go down, we had two good TP levels with a SL that could be placed above 0.74211 (23,6% retracement level on H4).
If the price goes up, we will wait for the end of the correction, in this scenario the explanations writed above will be valid.
I hope I've done a good analisys.
Please write me suggestions or your opinion, I'll appreciate that.
Thanks.
CAD/CHF Long reversal Hello traders, price decelerated nicely into the 0.7270 support level, meeting also the bottom trendline of the current bear channel. 50 EMA very far from current price so I see only 0.7350 level as possible resistance.
Keeping in mind tomorrow's NFP, I will be ready to catch an upward acceleration.
As always wish you good luck!
EUR/AUD short bounce of 20 EMA Greetings traders!
Put a short order on this pair as it could bounce of the 20 EMA and trendline. Doji candlestick and MACD divergence confirm high probability of the downtrend continuing its run toward the 1.4000 support area.
Hope you liked this idea, thanks for the support and good luck!
