DXY SELLS THIS WEEKHello Traders, so here's the weekly update of the financial markets. DXY filled the weekly FVG by market close last week and rejected. So what we expect this week is BEARS putting in lots of SELLING PRESSURE. Probably this week we shall see a BEARISH CANDLE on the Greenback. Onto GOLD ,with the above information, I expect it to remain BULLISH alongside other Major Currencies, Indices & Crypto; EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD & US30. This coming week, look for opportunities to place BUY orders on these financial instruments. DXY may SELL till the recent swing low where Buyside Liquidity awaits, use this as a monitor for your Buy Trades on the above mentioned instruments. Good Week ahead full of profits.
Dolar
DXY BEARISH THIS WEEKHello Traders, so here's the weekly update of the financial markets. DXY filled the weekly FVG by market close last week and rejected. So what we expect this week is BEARS putting in lots of SELLING PRESSURE. Probably this week we shall see a BEARISH CANDLE on the Greenback. Onto GOLD,with the above information, I expect it to remain BULLISH alongside other Major Currencies, Indices & Crypto; EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD & US30. This coming week, look for opportunities to place BUY orders on these financial instruments. DXY may SELL till the recent swing low where Buyside Liquidity awaits, use this as a monitor for your Buy Trades on the above mentioned instruments. Good Week ahead full of profits.
🔴Gold Why sell setup👌🏆👌Hello my gues
Gold fell when it reached a new historical resistance level of 2148, and when it fell, the price made a statement and not reversed the trend because some bears withdrew their profits from 1975, which is similar to the previous historical resistance level of 2075, that is, 75 is a common number between support and resistance, so I think that the price will continue to fall to... The 1940 level and this rise is a correction and not a trend reversal, so I used Fibonacci to determine the end of the upward trend
Gold oscillates at maximum while waiting for US GDPFrom a technical perspective, this week's sustained breakout through the $2,008-2,010 barrier and the subsequent move-up support prospects for a further appreciating move. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing slightly overbought conditions and warrants some caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for additional gains.
Any corrective pullback below the Asian session low, however, is likely to find decent support and attract fresh buyers near the $2,035-2,034 region. This should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $2,020 level, which should now act as a key pivotal point. On the flip side, some follow-through buying beyond the $2,052 region, or a multi-month top touched earlier this Wednesday, will set the stage for a move towards challenging the all-time high, around the $2,079-2,080 zone set in May.
The Fed has good reasons for raising interest ratesThe war is escalating and gold is increasing very strongly recently
Major common currencies are maintaining their current positions and rising momentum
However, now the energy crisis is gradually starting as most warring countries are cutting production and stopping supply to the whole of Europe.
For the above reasons, it is certain that the Fed will once again step in to avoid inflation and push interest rates to the top like previous hawkish speeches.
Reversed to decrease after Fed officials' commentsThe USD continued to decline in the last trading session, as Treasury bond interest rates dropped sharply following "dovish" comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
Accordingly, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond fell from the highest level reached on October 9 of 4.887%, to the lowest level of the day of 4.618%, after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that , the US Central Bank does not need to raise interest rates any further.
However, the conflict - Hamas's military attack on Israel caused risk appetite in the market to decline sharply after developments showed that the violence situation in Israel was escalating. However, many veteran market observers were surprised that the market did not react more strongly to a geopolitical crisis that was considered the worst in 50 years.
The USD, which is considered a safe haven, has strengthened since the morning session of October 9, when the violent situation in the Middle East made markets worried, while the US's positive employment report also supports the “greenback”.
Analysis of the dollar index in weekly timeTemporarily, the dollar continues to rise in a few weeks, and considering the emptying of orders in the 100 area, this rise is a fake rise for a deep fall to the 97 range.
After reaching the lower green area, the day of the incident begins. A big incident that may come with bad news...
In the weekly time, the dollar will reach 115, and on that day, other markets will bleed
I am watching...
DXY possible upside moveTVC:DXY
Hey, gettin back after long time but with different strategy I trust more
So DXY, when we look into XAUUSD we see bearish trend so thats this idea of DXY upside move
one thing goin against is last high is not higher then previous
When is entry valid: Fisrt at all I wanna see some 1H low to be formed, low cant go lower than 102.138. If yes trade is invalid.
Then i want to see break of highs at 102.400 with candle close above this price. 1H candle would be best but we can go even with 30min
If everything go well we enter, SL we can set under 1H low or more risky one, under last 15 min low before break of 102.400 zone.
TP is set at last high 102.743. There i would close 80% of positions and if we break that high then we looking for TP2 at 103.482
I will keep u updated about this trade. Have a great week.
dxy after federal Fund ratehi dear trader my road map for dollar curency index ...
One more Fed rate hike at least and a narrowly softer dollar outlook
The forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting may be a relatively subdued gathering, leaving exciting loose ends for September. Meanwhile, the dollar could trade around current ranges with a modest softening bias over the rest of the year.
July FOMC meeting
The FOMC meets on 25-26 July and a 25-basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate is inevitable. The ‘skip’ from the last meeting foreshadowed a hike in July – and potentially another in September. Markets unanimously expect a July hike and Federal Reserve officials haven’t pushed back.
Since the June FOMC meeting, and in view of favourable inflation prints and softer employment data, markets no longer anticipate a September hike. While that may prove right, they might be getting ahead of themselves. One month’s data doesn’t make a trend. Further, core inflation remains too high for the Fed and labour markets are still quite resilient. Expectations of a US recession or hard landing continue to fade – ‘soft landing’ is the buzzword of the day.
More data will come in after the July FOMC meeting and data dependence will shape the September decision. Perhaps the Jackson Hole symposium in August will shed some light on Fed thinking.
The key challenge for the July meeting will be communications. Regardless of the September outlook, the Fed has won its months-long struggle, convincing markets that, at least for now, the FOMC is on hold for the rest of 2023. The July meeting should be wary of any statements that might imperil this victory.
Foreign exchange outlook
Predicting exchange rates is a fool’s errand. With that disclaimer, what is the dollar’s outlook for the remainder of the year?
The dollar is off its peak from last autumn, but it remains strong (Figure 1). The dollar’s upside may be limited as the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Improving inflation may inject a downward bias to note and bond yields. However, the downside may also be limited given anticipation that the FFR, after peaking, will be on hold for the rest of 2023 and services price will be sticky.
Figure 1. Dollar remains strong despite falling from peak
Source: Federal Reserve; through June 2023
A soft landing scenario would comport with muted dollar sentiment and modest volatility, unlike a sharp risk-off or risk-on environment. Decent dollar selling could emerge when markets perceive with certainty the Fed will start embarking on rate cuts, but that isn’t priced in at this juncture until early next year.
The base case faces two-sided risks. If US inflation comes down more sharply than anticipated, major financial instability emerges or the economy sharply stagnates, the Fed could begin cutting rates earlier than expected, yields could fall and the dollar tumble. On the upside, more inflation persistence or greater than expected vigour in the US economy could sustain demand, as could a heightening in geopolitical risks.
Of course, the dollar will also be impacted by what is happening abroad.
Markets are discounting two more European Central Bank hikes this year – though there is increased debate about a September hike. The euro area economy has already stagnated and the outlook is for continued weakness. Absent further inflationary impulse, this weakness will curb the ECB’s hiking appetite and limit euro appreciation.
The Japanese yen’s course will be sensitive to finance ministry concerns about yen weakness and yield curve control policy expectations. Further yen weakness will be limited by market concerns over official jawboning or intervention. Meanwhile, markets expected a quick abandonment of YCC after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down earlier this year, but his successor Kazuo Ueda has taken a cautious approach. However, YCC adjustment seems more a question of when than if. Altering YCC could significantly boost the yen.
There may be modest renminbi upside against the dollar. It’s a managed currency, and opaquely so. It has depreciated against the dollar by some 4% this year, mainly reflecting divergent monetary policy stances in the US and China. Capital inflow to China has sharply ebbed over the last year. The authorities are resisting depreciation, though not through formal People’s Bank of China intervention, and increasingly signalling stronger aversion to renminbi weakness. .
The Chinese growth surge expected after reopening has fallen short of expectations given strong headwinds. The PBoC has only run slightly more accommodative policies and the fiscal authorities have so far eschewed significant stimulus given the economy’s high indebtedness. The renminbi will remain soft overall, unless authorities embark unexpectedly on stepped up fiscal stimulus – a topic increasingly debated.
With the UK facing continued inflation challenges, the Bank of England may need to stick with relatively high rates, undergirding sterling.
One quarter of the dollar’s trade-weighted basket consists of the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. Mexico moved preemptively to raise interest rates ahead of the Fed, hiking by nearly six percentage points since early 2022, and Banco de México is holding rates high, given elevated inflation. The peso took off this year, rising by 16%. Further upside is limited. The Canadian dollar through ups and downs has been fairly flat this year.
The picture facing emerging market currencies varies. But good performers that raised policy rates preemptively relative to the Fed, such as Brazil, have experienced good capital inflows this year.
Putting it all together, the dollar may trade narrowly with a softening bias for the rest of 2023. Next year may prove more interesting.
Mark Sobel is US Chair of OMFIF.
source passage : Federal Reserve