LONG ON NZD/USDNZD/USD has been oversold since last week.
It has finally given a change of character (choc) on the lower timeframe witching to bullish.
it is currently in the pullback/retracement phase of the new change.
With the dollar in a overall downtrend and getting ready to fall, this correlation should cause the NZD/USD pair to rise.
I have brought NZD/USD looking to make 200-300 pips this week.
Dollar
We might get a play on Gold soon! Been waiting for price to come for these levels for almost a month now. Now that we are finally here I'm just trying to keep my cool and wait for things to line up inside of the killzone. We could get a nice bullish swing here. We just have to wait for price to show us thats what it wants to do.
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 8, 2025 EURUSDAfter a tense week in which the US fully adopted a protectionist trade policy - despite lacking the necessary industrial infrastructure - tariffs on imports were imposed. The US now applies a general 10 per cent import tax on all goods from each country, as well as various ‘reciprocal’ tariffs calculated by dividing US imports by exports. After imposing a 34 per cent tariff on Chinese products, China responded with its own 34 per cent tariff on all goods imported from the US. Unable to find alternative solutions, the Trump administration threatened to impose an additional 50 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods, which is set to take effect on April 8.
US data takes centre stage again this week, with the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday. On Friday, producer price index (PPI) data and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey are expected.
Investors are raising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates to reduce recession risks. Markets are factoring in nearly 200 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025, despite the Fed issuing cautious policy statements indicating that trade uncertainty complicates any potential rate cut.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0950, SL 1.1030, TP 1.0830
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (103.300) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
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📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (101.700) Day / Scalping trade basis.
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🏴☠️Target 🎯: 105.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
💰💸💵DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇
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DXY Bearish trend continues on SSL and Bearish ORDER BLOCKDXY is known for extreme liquidity grabs especially after Trump's tariff announcements. Until we see countries remove tariffs and companies changing factory locations DXY will still be week. A decent pullback this week?? Probably not, Next? Maybe STAY SHARP!!
We Have direction. We wait on confirmation! GOLD!Looking for price to give is a little more indication that it wants to continue bullish. We have areas to fill on larger time frames before it gives us a stronger play for bigger moves. Just have to be patient and wait for price to give us more solid indication. As Always #NOFOMO!
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly Outlook | Elliott Wave Analysis
This DXY weekly chart highlights a potential (A)-(B)-(C) corrective structure unfolding after a completed 5-wave impulsive rally. Wave A bottomed out around the 100 level, followed by a retracement in Wave B which tested the 111.893 supply zone. Currently, price is reacting strongly from that level, suggesting a possible move toward completing Wave C.
Current Market Structure:
Wave B faced strong rejection near the 111.893 resistance/supply zone.
Price is now hovering near a short-term support zone (light green) around 102–100, which could serve as a decision point.
Two scenarios are in play:
1. Bullish Rejection from Support: If buyers defend the support, a new bullish leg may begin, retesting 111.893 or even pushing slightly higher.
2. Break Below Support: A decisive breakdown could initiate a deeper decline toward the major demand zone (highlighted in beige) near 90.00–92.50, completing Wave C.
Key Technical Zones:
Resistance (Supply Zone): 111.893
Immediate Support: 100.00–102.00
Major Demand Zone (Wave C Target): 90.00–92.50
Current Price: 102.892
Elliott Wave View:
The ongoing move appears to be part of a Wave C correction, which will be confirmed only if price breaks below the current support. On the flip side, a higher low and bullish continuation could mean the correction ended early, transitioning into a fresh impulse.
Conclusion:
The DXY is at a critical juncture. Traders should monitor price action closely at the 100–102 zone. A bounce could trigger a bullish setup back toward resistance, while a breakdown would likely bring Wave C to completion in the 90–92.50 zone.
Stay tuned and trade with discipline.
USDJPY - 4H more fall expectedFX:USDJPY - 4H Update 🔻
If you've traded USDJPY in recent years, you're no stranger to the significance of the 150.00 zone. This level has historically acted as a critical resistance and psychological barrier.
Now, the pair is trading below this key level and has also broken the ascending channel support on the daily timeframe, signaling that bulls are likely out of the game. The recent drop to 147.00 and bounce toward 151.00 could be setting up the next short opportunity.
📌 What to watch for:
A liquidity grab above the 151.50–152.00 zone could occur before the next fall.
This aligns with institutional behavior, hunting stops before continuing the trend.
We're now in a sell-the-rally phase, watching for confirmations around the red zone.
Remember, I previously signaled a short from the 157 zone, which played out beautifully. We’re now gearing up for the next big short, and this setup might just be it.
📉 Stay cautious, wait for price action signals, and trust the structure.
💸 If you’ve missed previous entries, don’t miss what’s coming next!
🔔 Follow for real-time updates and live trade ideas!
USDCAD - Hunting for Bullish Entries?The USD/CAD pair has experienced a notable correction from the 1.4400 resistance level, with price currently being at the 1.4215 area. If a correction happens like the one highlighted by the arrows, traders may find an attractive buying opportunity on smaller timeframes, aligning with the larger bullish trend that's been in place since February. The recent pullback could provide an ideal entry for those looking to capitalize on the prevailing uptrend, targeting a potential move back toward the orange horizontal resistance at 1.4400. However, caution is warranted – should price sharply break below the blue support box with conviction, the bullish thesis would be invalidated, suggesting instead a strategy of selling any minor retracements as the pair could then accelerate to the downside. This critical juncture demands close monitoring of price action for confirmation of either scenario in the coming sessions.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY Breaking Down?The US Dollar Index (DXY) may be entering a strong bearish wave. After completing wave B, the market has started impulsive wave C to the downside. Currently, wave 3 might be ending, with a potential short-term bounce for wave 4, followed by a drop into wave 5.
Key Bearish Outlook:
Resistance Zone (Wave 4): 104.924 – 104.932
Invalidation Level: 106.505
Final Wave 5 Target: Near 93.422
If price stays below the invalidation level, more downside is expected. Watch for shorting opportunities if wave 4 completes and reverses.
How Worrying is the Weakening Dollar? A Departure from TraditionThe value of a nation's currency is a critical barometer of its economic health and global standing.1 Typically, in times of international turmoil or economic uncertainty, the U.S. dollar, as the world's reserve currency, tends to strengthen.2 This "safe-haven" effect is driven by increased demand for the dollar as investors seek stability and liquidity. However, recent trends have seen the greenback exhibit a notable weakening, even amidst persistent global anxieties.3 This begs the crucial question: how worrying is this deviation from the norm, and what are the potential implications for the U.S. and the global economy?
To understand the significance of a weakening dollar, it's essential to first recognize the factors that typically influence its strength. These include interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, the overall performance of the U.S. economy relative to others, trade balances, and geopolitical stability.4 Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar and thus its value.5 Strong economic growth similarly boosts confidence in the currency.6 Conversely, high inflation erodes the dollar's purchasing power, while a significant trade deficit (importing more than exporting) can indicate an oversupply of the currency in global markets, leading to depreciation.
Historically, during periods of global crisis, the dollar has often acted as a port in a storm. Events like geopolitical conflicts, financial market meltdowns in other regions, or global pandemics have typically triggered a "flight to safety," with investors flocking to the perceived security and liquidity of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, thereby strengthening the currency.7 This was evident during past crises, where the dollar often appreciated as investors sought refuge from volatility elsewhere.
The current weakening of the dollar, therefore, raises eyebrows precisely because it seemingly contradicts this established pattern. While global uncertainties persist – ranging from ongoing geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world to concerns about the pace of global economic growth – the dollar has not consistently exhibited its traditional strengthening behavior. This departure suggests that underlying factors might be at play, potentially signaling deeper concerns about the U.S. economic outlook or the dollar's long-term standing.
One potential reason for this weakening could be a shift in relative economic strength. If other major economies are perceived to be on a stronger growth trajectory or offering more attractive investment opportunities, capital might flow away from the dollar, putting downward pressure on its value. For instance, improvements in economic prospects in the Eurozone or emerging markets could lead investors to diversify their holdings, reducing their reliance on the dollar.
Furthermore, concerns about the U.S.'s fiscal health, including rising national debt and persistent budget deficits, could also contribute to dollar weakness. While the dollar's reserve currency status has historically provided a buffer, a sustained period of fiscal imbalance could eventually erode investor confidence in the long-term value of the currency.8
Another factor to consider is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While higher interest rates typically support a stronger dollar, expectations of future rate cuts or a more accommodative monetary stance could dampen investor enthusiasm for dollar-denominated assets. If the market anticipates that the Fed will need to lower rates to support economic growth or combat deflationary pressures, this could lead to a weakening of the dollar.9
The implications of a weakening dollar are multifaceted and can have both positive and negative consequences for the U.S. economy. On the positive side, a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive in international markets, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers.10 This could potentially boost U.S. manufacturing and help to narrow the trade deficit. Additionally, a weaker dollar can increase the value of earnings that U.S. multinational corporations generate in foreign currencies, as these earnings translate into more dollars when repatriated.
However, the downsides of a weakening dollar can be significant. Firstly, it makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers and businesses.11 This can lead to higher prices for a wide range of goods, potentially fueling inflation.12 For businesses that rely on imported components or raw materials, a weaker dollar can increase their costs of production, which may eventually be passed on to consumers.
Secondly, a sustained weakening of the dollar could erode its status as the world's reserve currency. While this is a long-term prospect, a decline in the dollar's dominance could have significant implications for the U.S.'s ability to borrow cheaply and exert influence in the global financial system.13
Thirdly, a weakening dollar could lead to concerns among foreign investors holding U.S. assets, such as Treasury bonds. If they anticipate further depreciation of the dollar, they might become less inclined to hold these assets, potentially leading to higher U.S. borrowing costs in the future.
In conclusion, the current weakening of the dollar, particularly in the face of ongoing global uncertainties where it would typically strengthen, is a trend that warrants careful attention. While a moderate depreciation can have some benefits for U.S. exports, a sustained or significant weakening could signal underlying economic vulnerabilities or a shift in global investor sentiment towards the greenback. Factors such as relative economic performance, U.S. fiscal health, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will likely play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the dollar. The departure from its traditional safe-haven status serves as a reminder that the dollar's dominance is not immutable and underscores the importance of maintaining sound economic policies to underpin its long-term strength and stability. Monitoring these trends will be critical for understanding the evolving global economic landscape and its implications for the United States.
SHORT ON EUR/USDEUR/USD has finally given a change of character to the downside and is currently pulling back into a supply area.
The dollar is gaining strength due to Tariffs and looks like it will rise.
I will be selling EUR/USD with a sell limit order looking to catch over 200-300 pips over the next few days.
Massive storm hiting the crypto market soon!The Correlation Between SPX500 (Wall Street) & Crypto 📉📈
The relationship between SPX500 and crypto is not always stable. Sometimes they move in sync, like the Earth and Moon, and other times, they are completely decoupled. But rarely, we get an eclipse—a moment of total disconnection.
And guess what? That’s about to happen.
🔎 What’s Happening?
Looking at the charts, SPX500 had a massive rally last year, but while Wall Street boomed, crypto was bleeding. Most altcoins were slaughtered, and the TOTAL crypto market cap suffered.
But now, SPX500 is overbought, while crypto is oversold.
👉 This time, the decoupling will work in crypto’s favor!
💰 $2 Trillion in Sidelined Cash Ready to Flow In
Right now, about $2 trillion USD is sitting on the sidelines—money that institutional investors are hesitant to deploy due to market uncertainty. Many are keeping their funds in USD or foreign bonds instead of taking risks.
However, if you check my April/May forecast, we can see that:
✅ Crypto will be deeply oversold (confirmed by RSI & weekly MACD crossover).
✅ The US Dollar is weakening, forcing investors to move their money into other assets.
✅ SPX500 turning bearish = capital rotating into crypto.
🚀 The Perfect Storm for Crypto
📉 SPX500 bearish
💵 USD weakening
📈 Crypto bullish
This creates the perfect setup for rich investors to flood the crypto market with fresh liquidity.
💡 What does this mean for prices?
- CRYPTOCAP:BTC could double (100% gain).
- Altcoins could skyrocket (x10 to x100).
- This would finally trigger the altseason we’ve been waiting for—the parabolic move that happens once every four years.
📆 Timeline: April – June 2025
This move will be so explosive that it will eventually trigger a correction—possibly leading to a bear market. However, since crypto now moves in 6-month cycles, this correction should end by December 2025, setting up another leg up.
🏁 Final Thoughts
This kind of SPX500 & crypto decoupling is extremely rare, so positioning before the rotation starts is crucial.
⏳ Exact timing? Hard to say. But April/May looks like the moment when everything aligns.
🚨 DYOR as always—anything can happen to invalidate this idea.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Long-Awaited Recover
It looks like Dollar Index is going to pullback
after a test of a significant support cluster on a daily.
A strong bullish imbalance candle that was formed on an hourly
time frame shows a strong buying interest from that zone.
I expect a bullish movement at least to 102.35
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
DXY just broke below the 1W MA200 after 6 months!The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) broke today below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since the week of September 30 2024). By doing so, it has almost hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up.
The last contact with the 1W MA200 initiated a massive Bullish Leg two weeks after, so it would be an encouraging development if the candle holds here or better yet even close above the 1W MA200.
If it does, we expect a new strong Bullish Leg to start, targeting initially at least the 0.786 horizontal (blue) Fibonacci level at 108.000.
If not, the 2-year Support Zone is the last defense, with 99.600 as its lowest level (the July 10 2023 Low). Below that, a multi-year downtrend for DXY awaits.
Notice however, the incredible 1W RSI symmetry between selling sequences. Since January 2023, we've had two -54.50% declines. Right now, the current decline since January 2025 is exactly at -54.50%. If DXY rebounds here, it will confirm this amazing symmetry.
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Market Analysis: USD/CAD DipsMarket Analysis: USD/CAD Dips
USD/CAD declined and now consolidates below the 1.4350 level.
Important Takeaways for USD/CAD Analysis Today
- USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 1.4415 resistance.
- There was a break below a major bullish trend line
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/CAD at FXOpen, the pair climbed toward the 1.4420 resistance zone before the bears appeared. The US Dollar formed a swing high near 1.4415 and recently declined below the 1.4350 support against the Canadian Dollar.
There was also a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.4310. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.4310.
The bulls are now active near the 1.4300 level. The pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4415 swing high to the 1.4288 low. If there is a fresh increase, the pair could face resistance near the 1.4330 level.
The next key resistance on the USD/CAD chart is near the 1.4350 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4415 swing high to the 1.4288 low.
If there is an upside break above 1.4350, the pair could rise toward the 1.4400 resistance. The next major resistance is near the 1.4415 zone, above which it could rise steadily toward the 1.4450 resistance zone.
Immediate support is near the 1.4290 level. The first major support is near 1.4260. A close below the 1.4260 level might trigger a strong decline. In the stated case, USD/CAD might test 1.4240. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a drop toward the 1.4400 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 2, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to capitalise on the previous day's modest gains against its US counterpart and attracts fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The USD/JPY pair, however, remains in the range it has been in since the beginning of this week as traders await a new catalyst before positioning for the next leg of directional movement. As such, attention will remain focused on US President Donald Trump's announcement of retaliatory tariffs later today.
Meanwhile, speculation that the slowdown in the economy caused by the tariffs may force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep policy steady for now is undermining the yen. However, investors seem convinced that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. This is a significant divergence from the growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (BoJ) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June, and should support the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.
Trade recommendation: SELL 150.00, SL 150.90, TP 148.60
Gold running out of Gas to keep pushing up!I have been waiting for a solid pull back. Price looks like it wants to give it up. But since it is so bullish I have to wait for it to show its hand first before assuming. If price wants to continue with the strong bullish action I feel they need to come back and correct some of the price action first. Looking for signs they want to continue for Asian Session.
Dollar Index Bullish to $111.350 (UPDATE)The DXY price action from my last video analysis has been moving as we expected & following the arrow accordingly.
We’ve seen a nice dip for the Dollar, a healthy retracement to the downside which should now be followed by the next bull run back up.
Major Wave 5 (Wave Y) en-route to $111.350📈