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What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading. As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by stewdamus
2
Mastering AUDUSD: Key Trading Zones Revealed for Optimal EntriesGreetings, traders! Welcome to this AUDUSDmarket analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities. In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries. If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas. Trade safely Trader Leo
Short
by BTM-LEO
15
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 20, 2024 GBPUSDThe Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound. The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%. The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY - Bullish Wave ContinuesWe analysed DXY / Dollar few days back and it was highlighting a potential break above. This hsa been confirmed and the price now targets above Fib levels. Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime. For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
TVC:DXYLong
by MarketsPOV
DXY (THE DOLLAR INDEX)1. If the Dollar Breaks Out Above Resistance This scenario indicates bullish momentum, meaning the dollar could strengthen further. Implications: Continuation of Uptrend: Breaking resistance often signals strong buying interest or positive sentiment. Next Target: The price may move toward the next resistance level or a new high. Market Sentiment: This could result from strong economic data, higher interest rate expectations, or geopolitical factors favoring the dollar. Traders’ Actions: Enter long (buy) positions after confirming the breakout. Set stop-loss orders just below the breakout level to manage risk. --- 2. If the Dollar Fails to Break Resistance This scenario indicates a potential reversal or consolidation below the resistance level. Implications: Reversal to Downtrend: Failure to break resistance often signals profit-taking or bearish sentiment. Support Retest: The price might fall to test lower support levels. Market Sentiment: This could occur due to weak economic data, dovish central bank policies, or stronger foreign currencies. Traders’ Actions: Consider short (sell) positions if rejection at resistance is confirmed. Monitor for bearish patterns (e.g., double top or bearish engulfing candles). --- Confirmation is Key Volume Analysis: A breakout with high volume is more reliable, while rejection with high selling volume confirms resistance. Economic Data Events: Major announcements like interest rate decisions or employment data can influence the direction. Would you like help with specific dollar pairs or technical analysis?
TVC:DXY
by TRADE_CENTER_1
TBT- Look Out for Exploding RatesThe Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness over the Middle East concerns may seal the deal. With the US Strategic Oil Reserves drained over recent years, a supply shock could boost oil prices dramatically. Higher rates may also push gold and silver prices down temporarily, such moves would be an opportunity to further accumulate as dollar destruction is inevitable. While the administration hypes lower inflation numbers, moves in base metal stocks in addition to rising longer term interest rates certainly tell a much different story.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AssetDesign
USD/CAD Price Action: CAD Hits Record Lows Against US DollarRecent developments have significantly impacted the USD/CAD pair, pushing it above 1.4200, marking the Canadian dollar's lowest level against the US dollar since March 2020. This decline is driven by the recent resignation of Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, sparking political and economic uncertainty amid ongoing tariff policy disputes with the US. The Bank of Canada's decision to lower its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%, following weak GDP growth data, has further pressured the CAD. Despite stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending, the BoC has signaled a pause on aggressive future rate cuts, leaving room for potential economic adjustments in response to growth and inflation challenges. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook on inflation and a robust labor market points to a cautious approach on rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength. As uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and economic data unfold, traders should closely monitor these developments to anticipate further USD/CAD movements and make informed trading decisions.
by tastyfx
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 17, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD broke a three-day losing streak that took the pair to 1.2600 last week, recovering just over half a percent on Monday to return to the 1.2700 range. UK services PMI results for December hit an 11-month low. On Tuesday, UK traders will focus on wage and labor data. Quarterly average wages are expected to rise to 5% year-on-year. Markets await the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will be closely watching the Fed's updated summary of economic projections (SEP) and interest rate forecasts from policymakers. U.S. PMI data for December was mixed, with the services PMI hitting multi-year highs and the manufacturing PMI falling below 50.0, indicating contraction. Retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, but may attract limited market attention ahead of the Fed's final rate decision this year. On Wednesday, traders will keep an eye on fresh UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while the rest of the market will await the Bank of England's (BoE) latest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2700, trading mainly with Buy orders
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Sell Setup Incoming!!we can clearly see a nice formation of a bearish structure on the monthly timeframe which is consistent with the weekly structure we also a key monumental shift on the EMA crossover and the price is now below the trendline So as the DXY (Dollar index) continue to rise we shall see GBPUSD continue lower and currently we have multiple confirmation in higher structure confirming the probability setup Use proper risk management!! stop loss anywhere at 1.29000 level seem okey!! target 1.21500 Make sure you follow me for more updates
Short
by ShinForex1
XAUUSD - Gold went below $2700!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. In case of valid failure of the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zones. Gold demonstrated a strong performance earlier last week, surging nearly $100 from its weekly low and sparking fresh optimism among traders. However, higher-than-expected inflation data and a stronger U.S. dollar reversed the market dynamics, putting renewed selling pressure on precious metals. The latest weekly Kitco survey revealed that industry analysts are evenly split between bullish and bearish views, with a notable portion of respondents adopting a neutral stance. Meanwhile, retail traders’ optimism for gold remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, stated, “Gold saw an $85 rally in the first three days of the week, likely driven by reports of China’s central bank (PBOC) adding gold to its reserves for the first time in months. The metal reached $2,726 per ounce on the spot market on Thursday, marking its highest level in over a month, but then turned downward.” He further added, “Some analysts attributed the price decline to stronger-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Nonetheless, gold ended the week on a positive note, breaking its two-week losing streak.” Chandler also noted, “Since late October, this marks only the second positive week for gold. A cautious approach by the Federal Reserve to rate cuts—indicating that rates will be reduced but further cuts are unlikely next year, with a potential halt to tightening policies in early 2025—could pave the way for another test of the $2,600 level.” This week, the Federal Reserve is set to hold a two-day policy meeting, with monetary decisions expected to be announced on Wednesday. The central bank is anticipated to reduce the interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Additionally, the Fed will release its updated “Summary of Economic Projections,” known as the dot plot. In September, the median Fed officials’ projection for interest rates by the end of 2025 stood at 3.4%. If this forecast is revised down by more than 1%, the U.S. dollar could face immediate downward pressure. In such a scenario, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, boosting gold prices. Market participants will also closely monitor remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Should Powell strike a cautious tone regarding further monetary easing and emphasize a gradual approach, the dollar may maintain its strength against its rivals. Conversely, if he raises concerns about declining labor market conditions and their potential adverse impact on economic growth, the dollar could come under selling pressure. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revision of Q3 GDP data, and on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November will be published. Market reactions to the PCE inflation report are likely to remain muted after the Fed’s announcement. According to Bloomberg, Wall Street is shifting its outlook on the U.S. dollar, as Trump’s policies and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 could weigh on the greenback. Analysts from Morgan Stanley to JPMorgan predict that the global reserve currency will peak by mid-2025 and then begin to decline. Société Générale also forecasts a 6% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index by the end of next year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
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PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Thief_Trader
AUD/USD Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)I'm monitoring AUD/USD closely as the price approaches a black trendline. If the trendline is broken, it could signal a bearish move. My target for this setup is the green support level, which has historically acted as a strong zone of buyer activity. This area could present opportunities for either reducing short positions or watching for a potential bounce. Key points: Wait for confirmation of a trendline breakout. Observe volume and candlestick patterns to validate the move. Be cautious around the green support level for possible reversals. Patience is essential for the best entry!
Short
by rebenga93
2