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Dollar-index

USD looks vulnerable at support...It’s probably far too premature to suggest that Dollar/major and EM pairs may have marked out boundaries for the big BLS release already, but the index looks pretty restrained having slipped into a lower range either side of 92.200 and just above the last fairly recent low ahead of 92.000. Thursday’s more encouraging US jobs data proxies have not made a lasting impression as the DXY meanders between 92.253-151 after another ‘dead cat’ bounce, awaiting the official report to assess further progress towards the ‘substantial’ threshold set by the Fed for tapering.
TVC:DXYShort
by FTUKcom
1
Dollar strength incoming...Several Fed speakers are lined up to appear on CNBC before KC President George officially opens the annual JH event, but markets are waiting in anticipation for Chair Powell to deliver his speech on the economic outlook for any clues on further progress towards the substantial benchmark for igniting the taper that might come at September’s FOMC. Hence, the Buck looks pretty bunkered and in familiar ranges vs most G10 rivals, while the index continues to hold a relatively tight line around 93.000 following its break down from Monday’s loftier levels. Indeed, the DXY only managed to match its midweek best despite the hawkish momentum provided by Bullard and Kaplan yesterday, as attention turns to multiple US data points. Meanwhile, technical and mega option expiry interest appear set to keep the Euro in check given another probe, but no sustained breach of the descending 21 DMA (1.1766 compared to 1.1772 on Thursday) and 2.1 bn rolling off between 1.1765-75 for the NY cut.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
DXY/DOLLAR - Where Rejected Area? * If we focus on where the doxy (dollar) is bearish point, we see that there are two potential points for sale (estimate). »One point - DXY or dollar first selling point is the area around 93.10. »Second point - We see the area around 93.85 + in the second point for the Bearish. Hopefully, our trading estimates will be effective and will help your trading. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. We will be happy
TVC:DXYShort
by AaYeVoNPvtLtd
Dollar going from strength to strength...As Westpac puts it, the Dollar is effectively in a win-win situation, as it retains a firm underlying bid when sentiment turns bearish due to heightened concerns about the adverse impacts of this so called Delta variant, but also during periods of less anxiety and when attention switches back to the more hawkish-leaning FOMC alongside risks that inflation may not be transitory. Hence, Buck bulls are eager to buy into any dips and apparently getting increasingly impatient given ascending lows and highs in the index to 93.194 so far off a 92.951 base compared to 93.172-92.799 and 93.041-92.627 ranges yesterday and on Monday respectively. Looking ahead, only weekly MBA mortgage applications are scheduled on the US data front, but Usd 24 bn 20 year issuance seems to be in focus as Treasury yields back up pretty sharply and the curve flips into re-steepening mode.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
3
The dollar was softer today...The dollar was softer with DXY sub-92.50 this afternoon after a rather dovish Fed Chair Powell, who in his testimony reiterated that inflation was likely to remain elevated in the coming months before easing and expectations are broadly consistent with the Fed target, suggesting he is not concerned following yesterday’s hot CPI. He also struck his dovish tone, noting monetary policy will deliver powerful support until the recovery is complete and the jobs market is still a ways off from progress needed to start the tapering process. However, the Fed chair did reiterate that while reaching the standard of "substantial further progress" is also still a ways off, participants expect that progress will continue and the Fed will continue discussions on progress towards goals in coming meetings and will provide advance notice before announcing any decision to make changes to our purchases. The downside in the buck today may also be spurred from the reversal in yields with yields across the curve lower today, reversing some of yesterday’s moves.
TVC:DXY
by FTUKcom
2
Non-farm coming up...The Dollar looks reset and almost literally recharged after losing some impetus intermittently yesterday when crude oil was gushing, as it continues to rally and pick off more technical or psychological levels in index and Usd/other currency pair terms. The DXY has now been up to 92.699, leaving just a high from early April guarding the next big figure (92.790 from the 6th of the month to be specific) before attention turns to NFP in earnest and then the latest CFTC spec positioning updates that are odds-on to reveal another short squeeze and paring of Greenback shorts. Moreover, Monday is a US market holiday to mark Independence Day and this could prompt more Buck buying. Trade safe!
TVC:DXY
by FTUKcom
2
Further bearish bias is anticipated!... The broader Dollar and index trimmed earlier gains as news flow remained light but as the broader sentiment improved. A pullback in yields further put more pressure on the Buck with some seeing a bullish Treasury quant piece as one of the catalysts at the time. Elsewhere, the data and speaker slate remained spared as eyes turn to the US May CPI on Thursday which also falls on ECB day, whilst Fed officials will refrain from making remarks on monetary policy as the blackout period is observed ahead of next week’s FOMC announcement. Looking ahead, tomorrow sees another quiet session from a State-side perspective. Further bearish bias is anticipated.
TVC:DXYShort
by FTUKcom
4
Did you know about the U.S Dollar Index?We will talk a bit about an index that has existed for a long time, yet many traders do not know or use it. With this, we do not mean that it is 100% necessary, but it is good to consider certain situations. This post aims to give a theoretical development and then the technical vision of the graph in different temporalities. 🔸First of all, let's talk a little about what this index is: The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies. The index is currently calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major world currencies, which include the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). The EUR is, by far, the largest component of the index, making up almost 58 percent (officially 57.6%) of the basket. The weights of the rest of the currencies in the index are JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%). 🔸When was it created? It started in March 1973, soon after the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system. At its start, the value of the U.S. Dollar Index was 100.000. It had since traded as high as 164.7200 in February 1985 and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008. The make-up of the "basket" has been altered only once when the euro subsumed several European currencies at the start of 1999. Some commentators have said that the makeup of the "basket" is overdue for revision as China, Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil are major trading partners presently which are not part of the index, whereas Sweden and Switzerland are continuing as part of the index 🔸Why is it useful? It’s an indication of the general performance of the US Dollar. This can be important not only in terms of technical analysis but fundamentally also. For example, movements in exchange rates of currencies impact the inflation rate and trade relationships of a county. Most policymakers, therefore, like to monitor the performance of their currency and take appropriate measures if/when needed. The best way to see how strong or weak a particular currency is, is to use an index that shows the broad performance of that currency. The DXY is one such index, and for that matter, all currencies have an index that is monitored by the central bank and Government of that country. Aside from the above, as the most important currency of the world, the US Dollar and its value can impact many other countries and the global economy. This is why the Dollar Index is the most important currency index and why so many versions of it have been created. The USDX also has some known relationships with commodities like Gold and Oil. Generally, Dollar weakness is accompanied by rising commodity prices and vice versa. 🔸Now, let's go to the technical aspect of the chart: In the monthly chart (published), we clearly see how the downtrend that was in force for more than 30 years was broken. This was a key event. The problem is that after this breakout, we did not see a continuation movement, and on the contrary, we have been on a consolidation process for more than six years. We consider two potential scenarios that can happen based on the current movement. First, if we see a bullish break in the consolidation, it is very likely that we will see an upward momentum towards approximately 120.000, which is the closest supply zone that we see at this time. For that to happen, we should see buying pressure, and that is not happening now. The price is close to the support zone and with a rather bearish behavior on the Weekly chart. We detail it below. There was a breakout of the Ascending Trendline and its subsequent pullback, where it found supply again and resumed the fall. We are now close to the support zone. Given this behavior and seeing the current bearish pressure, we believe that it is possible to see a breakout in that direction. Anyway, until that happens, we consider that it would not be safe to start a trade, as there is a possibility that the zone will not be broken. If such a breakout happens, the next target is the support zone at 78.000-80.000.
INDEX:DXY
by ThinkingAntsOk
28
Dollar holding 90.00 for now...90.000 could well be unsustainable for the index short-term, but the Greenback has retested some psychological levels vs the Yen and Gold for example, around 109.00 and Usd 1900/oz respectively, as it attempts to stabilise again from todays session. The latest recovery began with a bounce from 89.584 vs yesterday’s 89.533 base and continued after an early dovish salvo from ECB’s Panetta that thwarted the Euro’s latest effort to clear the 1.2250 mark convincingly. In terms of US specifics, no taper talk or inflation boost for the Buck in the same vein as last Wednesday or the one before that, but Treasury yields offered a degree of underlying support, relatively speaking, ahead of Usd 26 bn 2 year FRN and USD 61 bn 5 year note supply. This could put pressure on the index for the remainder of the week. And I cant see it holding for long. Back to the DXY, 90.023 has been printed thus far compared to Tuesday’s 89.867, and a ‘close’ above would be encouraging, for many traders looking at the majors near the highs.
TVC:DXYShort
by FTUKcom
5
The dollar set for more downside!The Dollar is slightly mixed against G10 currencies, but lagging vs precious and base metals, like Gold, after the latter partly due to strengthened forecasts of strike action at BHP’s Spence and Escondida mines in Chile after the rejection of a contract offer. Conversely, spot bullion has taken advantage of softer US Treasury yields and a flatter curve that are keeping the Greenback capped in wake of last Friday’s disappointing retail sales data to breach a key technical level that was protecting Usd 1850/oz (200 DMA at Usd 1845.98), with bulls now eyeing another upside objective in the form of a declining trend-line that crosses the y axis around Usd 1858.40. Back to the dollar, 90.500 in the index has not been reclaimed and 90.153 may offer some support ahead of 90.000 on any further pull-back through the prior session low (90.278) as this represents the midweek base outside of the 90.429-265 range thus far. Ahead, NY Fed manufacturing, NAHB and 3 Fed speakers including current FOMC voter Bostic twice. Overall further downside is expected long-term for the index. 88.00 is a very modest target over the next coming weeks.
TVC:DXYShort
by FTUKcom
12
Will The Dollar Remain Bearish?The dollar index has been declining over the past few weeks and last week price went lower. This symbolized the bears have control. The question is, can they keep control? If price retraces before continuing down, price could retrace back to $91.17. If it does, and proves it can stay below, price could potentially continue to decline back to the low causing the base dollar currency pairs to continue moving down and the quote currency pairs to continue moving upwards.
TVC:DXYShort
by ShaquanLopez
1
S&P500 - Short IdeaJust listening to the candles on this one, price is struggling to make new highs, now several daily candles are confirming weakness, this is still insane QE, the wheels should fall off at some point.. see the setup take the setup. it's how this game works, If you reflect to my OIL/WTI short last week 2 x trades posted here: 1st attempt - Loss -1% 2nd attempt - Win +1.8% 50/50 win rate and I made .8% on these two trades. Manage Risk, asymmetrical risk/reward and just keep taking high quality setups. 1% Risk and 2.5:1RR on this setup. I am still holding onto the coveted title: Founder of the Tag "CryptoBros" on Tradingview. Thank you.
FX:SPX500Short
by MattArmstrong
2
Only one day left for the Dollar to avoid any residual month...Only one day left for the Dollar to avoid any residual month end selling, and so far its holding above support as it continues to counter bearish rebalancing signals and the ongoing dovish overtones imparted by the Fed with some assistance from a back-up in yields and curve re-steepening. However, the Buck is also benefiting at the expense of others and a degree of consolidation or corrective price action approaching the end of a 4th successive week of depreciation. Looking at the DXY as a proxy, a marginal new recovery high from sub-90.500 lows in the index was forged at 90.815 after the Euro filled remaining bids in to 1.2100 and tripped a layer of stops on the back of weaker than forecast prelim. However, EUR/USD has found a base nearby and 2.1 bn option expiries at the round number could be keeping the headline pair underpinned alongside bids in the EUR/GBP cross around 0.8700 that may be due to RHS fix and/or month end demand. Accordingly, Sterling is facing a task to retain grip of 1.3900 vs the Buck after topping out below yesterday’s 1.3975+ peak and failing to breach a double top against the Euro circa 0.8674, irrespective of Pound positives in the form of a super strong Nationwide UK house price survey and upbeat Lloyds business barometer.
TVC:DXYShort
by FTUKcom
10