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Dollar-index

The FOMC’s SEP dot plots did not leave a lasting affect on USD..The FOMC’s SEP dot plots did not leave a lasting affect on the Greenback or provide sustained relief for US Treasuries as the global debt sell-off resumed and intensified to the extent that even the short end of the curves retreated sharply. Accordingly, initial post-Fed losses on dovish takeaways were erased and almost reversed in certain cases as the index staged a relatively impressive recovery from 91.300 to 91.899 at best in response to the 10 year yield topping 1.75% and long bond breaching 2.5%. As has been the case of late, data was largely brushed aside even though IJC counts disappointed again in stark contrast to the Philly Fed survey that blitzed consensus in headline terms and was embellished by strong sub-components. However, a collapse in crude prices has taken some of the heat off bonds and tempered reflation fervour amidst rising inflation expectations.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
4
The Dollar has been meandering...The Dollar has been meandering for the most part against G10 peers, though mainly elevated and grinding higher with some outside assistance from a downturn in oil prices. However, upside progress has been hampered by a less supportive yield backdrop as US Treasuries recoup some of Friday’s heavy losses and the curve re-flattens ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Indeed, the index has only extended the upper end of its range to 91.967 from a prior 91.866 and seems reluctant to reclaim 92.000+ status without further impetus after a somewhat conflicting NY manufacturing survey. In sum, headline activity accelerated more than anticipated, while prices paid and 6 month business conditions gathered pace, but new orders and employment both moderated. Bullish bias remains for DXY.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
15
USD Week wrap, next week development... USD It looks like the Dollar may fall short of completing a full round trip from lows to highs, and in DXY terms 92.000 could be a step too far within the 92.506-91.364 range, but a reversion to bear-steepening in USTs has helped the Buck arrest a slide that picked up pace after benign CPI data on Wednesday. Moreover, most major rivals have reversed from best levels as bonds succumb to another bout of selling pressure, with high betas and cyclical currencies hit especially hard amidst the latest downturn in tech stocks on sector rotation in wake of President Biden signing off on Usd 1.9 tn fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, the last 2 legs of this week’s Treasury issuance were notably less well received than the 3 year offering that has Fed backing via dovish guidance pending new dot plots from the upcoming FOMC. On that note, no chance for Fed voters to pass any judgement on debt market developments, even if desired, due to the blackout period, and the bar remains high for any official measures (like YCC or YCT) next week given the absence of undue concern via commentary from FOMC members pre-purdah.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
5
This is why the DXY has NOT confirmed the Bullish Momentum yetGood afternoon traders, today we bring you our analysis on the U.S Dollar Index, since we consider that it is making an important movement, and it has been on an interesting behavior the last week. 🔸As we know, the USD has been gaining strong, and that was reflected in many pairs. 🔸If we look at the chart, the price faced a huge demand zone, where every time it was at that price level, there was a strong reaction. And this time it was not the exception. 🔸This rebound has as its first stop zone the broken Ascending Trendline. And this is why we say that the movement is not yet confirmed, since, if we analyze the long-term behavior, this can be a simple pullback to continue the downtrend. 🔸What we would do, as a safety measure to not to trade a noisy area, would be to wait for a breakout of the previous low, and this way the continuation of the trend would be confirmed. 🔸And, in case this does not happen, to trade in the bullish direction, we will wait for the price to enter the channel again.
TVC:DXY
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
A stronger Dollar isn't out of the questionThe Dollar index is something I've been grappling with for a while now. I bought into the narrative of a weaker dollar index particularly in light of the mass printing of money by the FED. Surely inflation must be a consequence of the monetary policies that we are seeing...? It just makes so much sense that we see a cheaper Dollar. But the macro people disagree and their arguments are plausible and so i pay attention. The biggest dilemma that i buy into with regards to a stronger Dollar index is the weaponisation of the US Dollar. Why would the US let their supremacy decline without a fight? Policy shock in the Dollar perhaps the biggest risk to countries around the world. My base case is for a weaker Dollar over the next 5 years, however, its not out of the question for the Dollar to strengthen should policy shift. The DeMarker indicator suggest that the Dollar Index should weaken over the short-term but lets see. Very tricky.... Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
INDEX:DXY
by JesseMorgans
The Buck bounced across the board to extend gains...What a Monday. Only a relatively short-lived and shallow pull-back in DXY terms before the Buck bounced across the board to extend gains and the index probed beyond last Friday’s post-NFP peak within a 91.840-92.303 range. Technical analysts are now looking at Fib resistance around 92.450 – 23.6% retracement of the move from 102.97 to 89.20 - ahead of the next half round number as US Treasury yields rebound and the curve re-steepens into supply and the House vote on President Biden’s Usd 1.9 tn relief bill on Tuesday. More immediately, employment trends for February and January wholesale trade.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
4
Dollar NFP Update... EXPECTATIONS: Nonfarm payrolls (exp. 182k, prev. 49k); Private Payrolls (exp. 210k, prev. 6k); Manufacturing Payrolls (exp. 18k, prev. -10k); Government Payrolls (prev. 43k); Unemployment Rate (exp. 6.3%, prev. 6.3%); Average Hourly Earnings M/M (exp. +0.2%, prev. 0.2%); Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y (exp. 5.3%, prev. 5.4%); Average Workweek Hours (exp. 34.9hrs, prev. 35.0hrs); Participation Rate (prev. 61.4%), U6 Underemployment (prev. 11.1%). MARKET REACTION: While a clear report in itself is not expected to alter the Fed's stance -- Powell Thursday repeated that it would be a while before the US is back at full employment -- there are concerns that a strong report might continue to pressure the long-end of the Treasury curve, lifting yields further upwards, which could also apply pressure to the equity complex. Conversely, a soft jobs report could perhaps rein in the long-end, although fixed income participants will begin to look to next week's long-end auctions, particularly within the context of questions that remain over whether SLR relief for banks will be extended beyond March, perhaps keeping the bond market on edge.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
6
Almost a classic game of two halves for the Greenback...Almost a classic game of two halves for the Greenback, and challenging from a chart point of view as early momentum pushed the Buck beyond key technical and/or psychological levels that looked likely to usher more upside for the Dollar against its peers and the index in tandem. However, this did not materialise and the tide has turned to the benefit of others to leave the Usd mixed and struggling to retain any gains vs rivals that are still underperforming. Indeed, the DXY now appears more prone to closing under 91.000 than reaching or breaching 91.500 within a 90.830-91.396 range, and closing below the 100 DMA (91.282) that may prompt more intraday or short term longs to bail out and reassess the situation as bonds continue to try and regroup, while stocks attempt to stabilise. Overall upside is still anticipated over the course of this week, so lets readjust tomorrow and see how to daily closure plays out.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
10
The dollar softened in Asia trade, and that continued into...The dollar softened in Asia trade, and that continued into the European hours ahead of testimony from Fed Chair Powell; but the buck regained poise, moving into positive territory; Powell didn't push back against higher yields, perhaps due to these higher yields coming hand-in-hand with brighter prospects for H2 2021 (though that still doesn't explain why the Fed would tolerate the market challenging its view of the rate hike trajectory). Either way 90.00 has been respected as we anticipated and it could gain some short term momentum to the upside...
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
6
Gold Ideas? Behind the mainstream thoughtHi everyone!! I just want to share my thoughts about what s happening, while i'm seeing everybody just posting the technical analysis of gold, but no one is building a theory based on correlations. We all know that US Dollar moves exactly in the inverse way of the gold. (The gold moves also even in a invese way to the US10YearsTBOND) Ok, that s clear. Now recap of the situation: did you notice those three tops DXY reached till mid january? Do you know about the 1,9 Trillion dollars stimulus that s coming? Never heard about the word: inflation? Well, in my opinion, connecting those simples points we have a clear idea of what is happening. AGAINST DOLLAR - US Dollar tried 3 times to go up FAILING, creating a possible DOWNTREND pattern. - Also EUR/USD failed 3 times going down, opening for a strong scenario above 1,21 (representing the 57% of the DXY this move would weight) - The 1,9 trillion stimulus is coming and the inflation just started, two more steps for a WEAKER dollar. SUPPORTING THE GOLD - Gold is always, and always will be the shelter asset, banks buy it every damned month, do you know in the last year (due to the rebound from coronavirus) banks bought something like 60% less gold than usually? This means it was underbought (DO YOU BELIVE IT?) - The great affluence of retail traders during this year led the volatily to be really high so i wouldn t watch at the exactly point on technical analysis, as i see a support at 1760. - Many analysts said that gold is underrated and it would cost more than 2100 dollar over the year. - Jelwery markets bought at least 50% less gold than other years (SO AGAINST IT WAS UNDERBOUGHT...INCREDIBLE) - Inflation is coming so Raw Materials benefits from this because of the USD at the denominator - Inflation is coming and Gold strongly benefits from this (historically) as a shelter against dollar weakness TO THINK ABOUT -Well then, just go back and take a look to the past: 2008 was an year of crisis, then gold moved upward till 2011. - 2020 was an year of crisis --> suggestions? :) I hope my analysis was clear, anyway of course this is just my vision of the thing. Hope to have some constructive comment below to have a good talk about this, tell me what you think folks!!
TVC:GOLDLong
by OVER-THE-COUNTER
USDCHF H4 - Long Trade SetupUSDCHF H4 Starting the week with pairs carried forward from last week, if it's not broken, don't fix it! 0.89030 was test earlier on this morning, eyes peeled for that 0.89 test again now we have a little better market volume and a good stint ahead of us. USDCHF pulled up last week towards the latter part of the week, but then pulled back downside off the back of the worse than expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index figures. We also fought off worse than expected inflation data on the Wednesday too, yet we are still sitting on our S/R and 0.89 handle. Looking for potential longs again this week.
Long
by Trade_Simple_FX
A game of two halves for the Dollar, and by default its peers...A game of two halves for the Dollar, and by default its peers in major circles and beyond. However, the turning point or catalyst seemed to come via the resurgence in Bitcoin after reports that Tesla has invested Usd 1.5 bn in the crypto currency. Indeed, BTC and others spiked with the former almost reaching Usd 44.9k before topping out around the same time that the DXY tailed off at 91.288 and pulled back to a minor new 90.897 low. Moreover, the Greenback lost a degree of traction from Treasury yields as 10 year notes and long bonds failed to extend through 1.20% and 2% respectively.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
10
DOLLAR INDEX - Remains IndecisiveThere is nothing more important to a trader than a good prediction of the dollar's performance. At this stage and since mid-November last year, the dollar index has been going sideways. It landed on our calculated support but failed to find either a good rebound or a break through to dip lower. At this point it's important to understand what the dollar index is.: 'The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally, the "Dixie") is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.' So, we have a dollar going sideways against the rest of the fiat currencies. At the same time we have a stagnation (no great movements) in the price of Gold, whereas now Bitcoin is also sideways, correcting and flirting with 35k+ in a hard-to predict manner. In other words fellows: when the dollar finally moves and oicks a direction, our trading will be easier. For the time being it's a cloudy and difficult time to trade so one must be able to hedge, diversify and take profits relatively early. Not a great time for swing trades, scalping seems to have better chances at this moment and it is key for a trader to be able to adjust based on changing market conditions. When can the dollar find direction? Well, either data or other fundamentals. Keep your eyes and ears open, things can change in a day, an hour , a single minute.
TVC:DXY
by FX_Professor
1
The Buck was already losing altitude before the return of US...The Buck was already losing altitude before the return of US markets from their long MLK junior holiday weekend, but the pull-back has continued through 90.500 in DXY terms to 90.401 vs 90.768 at one stage and from within a whisker of 91.000 yesterday, assessing US Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen’s confirmation Q&A where she is expounding the virtues of a market-determined level for the Dollar, as widely anticipated. Possible upside heading into tomorrows session...
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
7