The Dollar remains on track to record net and widespread gains..The Dollar remains on track to record net and widespread gains, but it’s been far from one-way traffic or straight forward as the DXY has whip-sawed within a 90.762-89.922 range through mostly disappointing US data, mainly dovish Fed rhetoric and President-elect Biden’s fiscal stimulus plan that was pretty much as expected. Meanwhile, broad risk sentiment has turned more selective in terms of stock indices and sectors as reflation positioning continues before the dawn of a Democratic Congress, and Treasury yields have also reflected the prospect of increased issuance to fund a bigger budget deficit via deeper bear-steepening until a retracement after auctions and a concerted effort from the Fed, including chair Powell to avert a taper tantrum. On the COVID front, the spread in the US and elsewhere is still accelerating to record levels of infections and fatalities in some domains, but markets (and society in general) are looking beyond the resurgence towards light at the end of the tunnel as authorities attempt to catch up by speeding up the pace of vaccinations. However, Friday’s Greenback appreciation has been forged from renewed safe-haven demand as equities retreat further from early 2021 and/or all time highs on a mixture of doubts about the aforementioned relief bill getting approval in its current guise and whether vaccines are effective against the new pandemic strains, not to mention reports that Pfizer may miss some drug delivery targets over the coming weeks.
Dollar-index
🤔Dollar rising and Gold rising (as expected!)😉Our updated Dollar chart. Close to major resistance again.
Funnily, dollar is rising and commodities are rising which is a big discussion I will try to keep it extra short:
no inflation, dollar is doomed...what happens to gold then? it goes UP
high inflation, dollar goes down and therefore people tend to hold money in the form of gold (and btc). Therefore, in times when inflation remains high over a longer period, gold becomes a tool to hedge against inflationary conditions. This pushes gold prices higher in the inflationary period. So Gold up again 🔝
Weird yes? Not really, it's the times we live in, the times are weird more than the prices. An it will be a crazy year.
ps. CIP (inflation) data came out exactly as forecasted, no major news on inflation today. I had prognosed that Gold will rise together with dollar just 3 days ago. ask me privately and I will show you )
ps2. Dollar rising and Gold rising...what happens if dollar drops next?? Take a wild guess guys
It’s too early to call time on the Greenback revival...It’s too early to call time on the Greenback revival, but Tuesday is shaping up to be one of those testing, if not make or break sessions as buyers continue to draw encouragement from rising yields and sellers seem more inclined to trade along risk appetite and aversion lines. To recap, the Dollar extended recovery gains broadly yesterday to the point where the DXY reached a high of 90.730 before fading when US stocks pared some losses, and the index has subsequently pulled back further within a 90.620-302 band ahead of more Fed orators and the Discount Rate minutes, NFIB sentiment, weekly Redbook sales, JOLTS and Usd 38 bn 10 year supply that could all have a bearing on direction. Tricky trading times at the moment with the dollar.
DXY Threatens to Cross Above 90.715 With Further UpsideSignposts detailed key signals on chart. DXY continues to trend higher along with a recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields. 90.715 is another key level that DXY is threatening to breach above. We saw a recent test of the 90.715 level, which we was not followed by a strong reversal.
[ Note that ideas published represent my viewpoints on structural directional movements. I do not post explicit trade parameters (i.e. entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) as these are set to in reference with my expectancy. Since my win rate and R-multiple targets are different, ideas published are simply a resource to provide guidance. You are expected to manage your own trading decisions. ]
The Dollar remains in recovery mode, with the DXY temporarily...The Dollar remains in recovery mode, with the DXY temporarily rebounding from sub-89.500 lows, albeit in somewhat quieter and more measured fashion compared to Wednesday’s frantic price action awaiting confirmation of the Georgia run-off results and certification of Electoral College votes that was derailed by the siege on Capitol Hill before resuming to seal victory for President-in-waiting Biden. For the record, FOMC minutes were largely taken in stride, but upcoming IJC, trade and non-manufacturing ISM releases could be more market moving either side of comments from Fed’s Harker and Evans. Meanwhile, after extending losses on the Blue banner of fiscal and deficit excesses among other bearish factors, the Buck seems to have gleaned a degree of traction from the ongoing ramp up in US Treasury yields as 10 year cash inches further above 1% and the index hovers near the top of a 89.943-294 band.
What about the DXY? Potential Retracement + ImpulseGood morning traders, today we bring you our analysis on the DXY index, along with an analysis of the potential behavior based on the short and long term zones.
🔸For most of 2020, the price was in a downtrend after bouncing off the Resistance Zone.
🔸The movement was so strong that it managed to penetrate the Bullish Channel that had been active for almost 10 years to the downside.
🔸At this time, the price is approaching the Support Zone, where we will most likely see a reaction/consolidation for a few days/weeks.
🔸If the price does not make a strong reversal, we may see a breakout to the downside of this correction.
🔸In case this happens, the next support area is around $80, which would imply an interesting price drop.
Bearish sentiment remains overall for the index...Prior chart:
The Dollar and index by default, if not quite design, have maintained recovery momentum, as the latter holds above 90.500 and Monday’s new y-t-d/multi-year low (90.419), albeit still unable to reach 91.000 and fading just below yesterday’s high, at 90.824 vs 90.907. Markets are somewhat caught and indecisive on the upbeat vaccine developments fostering optimism that the worst of the coronavirus and contagion may be over, but cautious about the fall-out from latest lockdowns and restrictions that are being tightened in some places due to new strains of COVID-19. Moreover, this week’s major risk events lie ahead and will vie with early positioning for month, quarter and year end, while stocks also have quad-witching to contend with. Bearish sentiment remains overall for the index.
DXY(Dollar INDEX) Support is not yet reached! Analysis!
Hello, Traders!
DXY, The Dollar Index keeps falling
It takes looking at the 1D timeframe to see the next support level 89-88
Till then, we might see some pullbacks, but the first real support is there
So looking at the chart, it seems like the dollar will keep falling
Before it reaches this support, and only then will reverse and go UP
Buy from support 89-88!
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DXY 92.00 completed...The dollar is softer and continued its downside with month end approaching. Citi quant's month-end rebalancing model points to dollar selling on Monday, with the signal to sell exceeding 1.5 standard deviations in all crosses except JPY, the bank said. The latest Fed minutes had no impact on the greenback, although some kind of action seems likely in December; what exact action will be taken remains to be seen, given the minutes had something for everyone.
Before:
Dollar index stalls at the 92.2 levelNo directional bias at this point, but how it plays around this level may hint at momentum plays on the major pairs for the weak ahead.
Note that ideas published represent my viewpoints on structural directional movements. I do not post explicit trade parameters (i.e. entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) as these are set to in reference with my expectancy. Since my win rate and R-multiple targets are different, ideas published are simply a resource to provide guidance. You are expected to manage your own trading decisions.
DXY(Dollar Index) is pushing UP!
Hello, Traders!
DXY went Up from the same support
Just as I predicted before
And now retested this support again
Respected it
And is now on its way UP
Will most likely go up further
To retest resistance
Buy!
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The Dollar index is holding up relatively well considering...The Dollar index is holding up relatively well considering other currencies, albeit in a lower 92.614-372 range compared to Monday awaiting some top tier US data in the form of retail sales and ip before another raft of Fed speakers. Moreover, the Greenback has clawed back some lost ground against the Loonie and Kiwi amidst a dip in broad risk sentiment following yesterday’s Moderna vaccine boost, with Usd/Cad straddling 1.3075 and Nzd/Usd pivoting 0.6900 in the run up to Canadian housing starts and wholesale trade and NZ PPI.
Possible further downside ideas on the horizon...Aside from all the above, rangebound trade on US Veteran’s Day is keeping the Dollar in check for the most part vs most majors as the DXY hovers below 93.000 within a 92.969-607 band eyeing broad risk sentiment and further post-US Presidential election developments. Possible further downside ideas on the horizon.
DOLLAR INDEX time to go UP
Dollar is too weak and will stop falling within the broad support area soon.
Though strong fundamentals might be at play
With the US elections and Coronavirus 2nd Wave
I don't think the Dollar Almighty is ready to go lower
Buy!
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Dollar Index achieved 93.00. now lower?...The Dollar is weaker in relation to most major rivals in the run up to the FOMC and doubtless anticipating dovish guidance from the Fed and Chair Powell, but no action in terms of policy stimulus. However, the DXY is hovering around 93.000 within a softer 93.548-92.897 range awaiting the climax of the US Presidential Election that looks increasingly likely to see Republican Biden replace Democrat Trump, albeit with a gentle Blue ripple rather than the tidal wave prophesied by polls. Also ahead, another pre-NFP gauge in the form of Challenger lay-offs and the more timely IJC updates, but all unlikely to steer attention away from the FOMC and casting votes in the 2020 ballot.
DXY Down To 90 After Trump Win!-Many investors are fleeing into cash for fear that capital gains taxes will increase under Joe Biden.. This may have caused the Markets to Sell off in the Past Few Weeks..
-If Trump Confirms Re-election, much fear and anxiety over capital gains tax could dissipate, as Trump has a more laissez faire approach for taxing business owners and investors.
-If Biden Takes it, We could see a massive surge in DXY in the short term as investors flee into cash before inauguration day...
-If DXY Gets Rejected Here This is Good For All Asset Prices..
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Unfilled gaps on Dollar Index (Inverted)This is basically inverted Dollar Index ( DXY ) chart (equal weight against 2 major world currencies EURO and YEN)
Price is likely to fill the extension.
Usually price react at major clean breaking points ( CBR ) or at point of releases (POR). Thats where you should place trades. Never chase price. Trade the reactions.
Sooner or later such liquidity blocks come to exhaustions (low liquidity states, what others call "Bollinger squeeze") and price explodes (breaks out) either side. As we have unfilled extension to the downside - price is likely to push to the downside before US the elections. As investors pull out money from the stocks before such major events, also news. It means stocks will weaken and dollar is likely to strengthen before the elections.
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DXY - Dollar SellHi trades,
Watch your lower time frame for your sell setups. If the price will aggressively break to the upside this setup will become invalidated. So keep an eye on your lower time frame for sell setups. I do anticipate that the price will be keep falling until the 3rd of November - USA ELECTION. After the election we can anticipate a DXY Dollar index to rise.
BRICS currencies movement for the week – 16 October 2020A strong week for the US Dollar, with most Emerging Market currencies coming under pressure. Also look at my US Dollar Index Idea here:
Despite the USD strength, the ZAR remained resilient, having some of the best relative BRICS currency performance for the week.
BRICS currency/USD movements for this week:
Brazil -1.9%
Russia -1.1%
India -0.6%
China 0.0%
South Africa -0.5%
Euro /USD -1.7%
Technically, the ZAR broke and close the week off below all four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which over the shorter-term, might provide some further momentum in the ZAR.
If this was a false break and we see the ZAR break and stay above the 200-day EMA (at R16.61) this week, we could see it move back to the 50-day EMA at R16.76. A break and close above this level could see the USDZAR test the diagonal resistance level at R16.85, with a break and close above this level, most probably bringing R17.10 back into play. With the runup to the US Elections, this (USD Strength) in my view can only happen if the momentum swings back from Biden to Trump, which at this stage seems highly unlikely.
The 14-day RSI is not in oversold territory yet, which will have me optimistic should the USDZAR break and close below R16.50 early this coming week. Momentum is turning and very much moving back into the favour of the Rand, which tend to make me believe that we might just be testing the R16.10 levels again over the shorter-term. Watch the US Dollar Index early this week. Should you be contemplating any short-term long positions in the ZAR (short USDZAR), I would only look at doing so below 93.20 on the Index.
DXY US Dollar Index Initial Target Hit $94.40. Retrace & Resume?DXY
I published a chart for DXY at beginning of September(linked below). This video furthers the idea that DXY is in correction mode.
I propose that DXY will make a retracement back to its local trendline, using the 14% retrace of March-September Swing as support now.
Looking for potential bounce from there($93.32 area), then a resumption of the correction to the 38.2% March-September Swing($96.04)
In 2016, after President Trump was elected the DXY proceed to top out soon after in Jan. 2017, until it put in a bottom in Jan. 2018, in correlation to Bitcoin & Crypto Market Bubble.
I expect similar results for the coming election and DXY price correlation. I expect The Donald to win, thus in turn ending the correction for DXY, and resume its drawdown into 2021...If
a one year downtrend ensues for DXY at that point, perhaps we see another bubble for Bitcoin late 2021, early 2022?
What's is your thought? I'd love to know...
Thanks for checking out my analysis!
everything depends on DXY in last week , Dollar index movement make noise in all Major Trading instruments like XAU XAG EUR GBP Trading Setups ,
Traders and Trading institutions Feel more risk on the DXY New Price and a lot of them liquid their positions to Hedge The risk with more Liquidity
Powell Testimony was Most Important Event Of the week and when he said there is no enough debt and cash to guaranty the 2% estimated Inflation rate DXY All major instruments Experienced High Volatility last night
now , the last hope for Bulls Against Dollar is a rejection from the red trend line on DXY with Reliable Price Action
sincerely AHZ