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DXY Macro View 25/02 - H&S?NAHB Housing Market Index rose two consecutive months after plunge over final months of 2018. “Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. The NAHB index gauges builders’ perception of present sales and future activity over the next six months, providing some degree of survey evidence for a housing market upturn. FOMC Meeting Minutes shows that shrinkage of balance sheet likely to stop at end 2019 and starting next year 2020, expect balance sheet to start growing organically again. Durable goods order report delayed by 27 days due to the US government shutdown. It rose to 1.2% in December and a revision to November’s increase. Core Durable Goods Orders was down another 0.7% in December and has now fallen in four out of the past five months. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plunged 21.1 points to contraction. But ISM Manufacturing PMI still a consistent expansion. “The factory sector still looks to be growing, but at the weakest pace in roughly two years,” from Empire survey. Existing Home Sales fell 1.2% to 4.94million-unit pace in January. Winter months are difficult to interpret due to large seasonal factor, home buying activity continues to trend lower. The partial government shutdown likely had little impact on January sales, but delays in the mortgage underwriting process may slightly weigh on sales in coming months. DXY chart past week resisted breaking down through 96.40 levels. H&S should seem to be formed but watching out level to break through bottle neck. A downward move might see to 96.00 levels progression or bounce off bottle neck levels and breaks 96.70 levels to 97.25 levels going forward. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Turning Bearish Stochastic – Moving towards oversold Overall - 2/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 17/02 - Range or Rage?NFIB Small Business Index dropped in January 3.2 points to 101.2, lowest since 2016. But remains high compared to historical averages. The drop was likely due to uncertainty arising from the government shutdown. NFIB uncertainty index rose 7 points to 86. Labour shortages remain a challenge. Expectation for future improvements in economic growth and higher sales both dropped in January. Plans to increase employment and inventories also slipped. Consumer prices were unchanged in January for the third consecutive month. Core prices rose 0.2% in January for the 5th consecutive month. Inflation will dip are expected over the next few months due to drop in both energy and food prices the past months. A weaker dollar is expected to lend some support to core goods prices while rising labour costs and a willingness among businesses to raise prices should underpin services inflation. The latest 2.2% y-o-y rate of US core inflation suggests no immediate pressure on FOMC to raise rates again soon. Retail sales dropped 1.2% in December, against expectations of modest increase. With seasonal factors expecting a jump in December, the adjusted numbers were depressed more than usual. Industrial Production in January dropped 0.6% unexpectedly where manufacturing is under pressure. DXY chart past week 96.70 levels from resistance has turn support. Reaches 97.25 levels but unable to break up any further. Overall suggestion upcoming week might be looking to test 96.70 levels going forward before any clear direction. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bearish MACD – Bearish Stochastic – Moving towards oversold Overall - 3/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 11/02 - Trend continuation?Factory Orders m/m declined 0.6% despite consensus expectation for modest increase. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 56.7, economy is growing at a slower pace. Trade Balance deficit narrowed in November on falling imports on petroleum products, which fell $2.9 billion on weaker volumes and lower oil prices. President Trump indicated that there will be no meeting with China's President Xi before the early March deadline. DXY Past week break out of the down trend line and turn bullish for the whole week till it reaches a resistant of 96.70 levels. Overall suggestion upcoming week might be looking at a break out of resistance level to 97.70 levels progression, of a bounce off to 96.00 levels progression. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Turning to Bearish Stochastic – Moving towards overbought Overall - 2/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 03/02 - Is The Tide Changing?Past week, President Trump reopen the government for 3 weeks till 15th February after being shutdown for 35 days. Consumer confidence decline to 120.2 in January and previous data revised downwards from 128.1 to 126.6. No plans to raise interest rates anytime soon from FOMC. - “The decision to keep rates on hold had been widely expected by the market because most FOMC members had been indicating in recent public comments that the committee likely will be on hold for the foreseeable future as it watches incoming economic data.” Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% during fourth quarter slower than previous 0.8% rise in Q3. New Home Sales increased 16.9% In November report after delay due to recent partial government shutdown. Non-Farm Employment Change came out 304k which is far better than expectation of 165K. But previous data revised downwards from 312k to 222k. ISM Manufacturing PMI came out better than previous and expected of 54.1 to 56.6. DXY for the month of January looks pretty much side way without a clear direction. Past week were bearish forming a down trend channel closed at the top of it. We might see a breakout of the channel leading to a sideward move. Overall suggestion upcoming week might see a continuous downward move to 95.00 levels progression. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Moving towards overbought Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYShort
by ForexBriefcase
DXY Macro View 26/01 - Bend or Break?Past week, existing home sales in US fell 6.4%. CB Leading Index dropped 0.1%. Next week, the Fed will hold it’s 2-day meeting and statement will be released on Thursday. Friday NFP are forecasting a drop from 312k to 165k. DXY last week seems been picking up after it broke off 96.00 levels. It continues up to about 96.70 levels before having a strong bear down of 0.92% drop. We have to look forward to next week momentum again to watch out if is a bend or break. Overall suggestion upcoming week might see a side way movement between 96.50 and 95.50 levels progression. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bearish MACD – Bearish Stochastic – Oversold Overall - 3/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXY
by ForexBriefcase
1
US Dollar Index Macro View 20/01 - Happy Martin Luther King DayProducer Price Index fell 0.2% in December, NAHB Housing Market Index climb 2 points in January and Industrial Production expanded 0.3 in December. The ongoing partial government shutdown delayed the December reports for housing stats and retail sales last week. DXY last week broke 95.70 levels and head towards 96.30. It seems having some resistance levels where overall suggestion upcoming week might see it going towards 97.00 levels progression. US market is closed on Monday, observance of Martin Luther King Day. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Overbought Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
DXY US Dollar Index Macro View 13/01Past week, US ISM Non-Manufacturing index dropped in December. US jobs openings and NFIB Index dropped. Consumer Price Index dropped 0.1% but core price inflation remained firm and consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. DXY last week has broken H4 support at 95.70 levels and rebound turning that levels from support to resistance. Overall suggesting to watch 95.70 levels bounce break scenario. If prices go above levels, prices may reach 96.30 towards 97.70 progression. Or might range between 95.70 to 94.90 levels going forward. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bullish MACD – Bullish Stochastic – Moving towards overbought, Bullish Overall - 3/3 - Bullish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
DXY US Dollar Index Macro View 05/01 - Upcoming Week OutlookThursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and prices both decrease beyond expectations. Non-Farm Employment Change jumped by 312,000, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% and Unemployment Rate slightly increased to 3.9% in December. Previous months' Non- Farm numbers were revised higher by 58,000. Overall, the labour market remains strong. Next week outlook: Trade talk announcement starting from Monday. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers. FOMC Meeting Minutes but most likely remain unchanged. Chairman Jerome H. Powell joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019. For the past 2 months, DXY have been ranging sideways with no clear direction. There is a short strong bull but still unable to break it’s previous high at 97 levels, leading to a down 3 point down trend line formed. Overall suggesting to watch out 2 levels. If prices break through trend line on move towards 97.70 levels, the bull structure prevails from daily chart. Support levels at 95.00 will have to watch out a bounce break scenario. Indicators: Parabolic SAR – Bearish MACD – Bearish Stochastic – Moving out of oversold, Bullish Overall - 2/3 - Bearish Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:DXYLong
by ForexBriefcase
US Dollar Index correction stalls ahead of 97.00 levelsThe US Dollar Index rally yesterday might have surprised quite a bit of traders but this pullback was more than due before resuming lower again. Please note that the earlier drop last week had taken out a major support at 95.69 levels and yesterday's pullback could be seen as a reaction to that. The pullback managed to reach 96.96 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire drop between 97.71 and 95.65 levels respectively. Believe it or not, if the above structure holds true, we could see the US Dollar Index dropping rapidly towards 93.63 levels at least, as projected here. The higher degree wave structure is also suggesting that the US Dollar Index is either producing an expanded flat lower or a fresh impulse wave lower. Overall bearish momentum to remain, until prices stay below 97.71 levels respectively. Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
TVC:DXYShort
by FXTM
US Dollar Index Macro View 30/12 - Happy New YearLow volume is likely to continue in the US Dollar Index until coming Wednesday, the day after New year. Friday Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data might bring some volatility in the market. The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12300 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead. ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a Happy New Year. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
1
US Dollar Index Macro View 23/12 - Merry ChristmasThere is no surprise that Federal Reserve rate hike, US Dollar Index rallied after. Investor were looking for Fed Chair Powell dovish tone but his comments came out optimistic. The dollar rose despite the fact that 10-year Treasury yields dropped. Small adjustment in the statement on lowered growth and inflation forecast, these changes were not significant to push the dollar lower. Fed Chair Powell’s comments that he made it clear that nothing is predetermined and everything is data dependent but he also said the sharp decline in US equities and tightening of financial market conditions has not fundamentally altered their outlook. The Fed still plan to raise interest rates in 2019 and most policy makers expect the economy to grow. However, if the bond market continues to fall, it will be difficult for the dollar to sustain its strength. The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12330 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead. ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase
DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSISIn recent weeks the Dollar Index has moved within a rectangle. If we take the analysis on a "fundamental" level, it could be an inversion rectangle. Yesterday, the Fed raised rates. In the early hours, the dollar strengthened. It was enough, however, a reading of the Economic Projections to understand that the dollar came out weakened by the meeting. Briefly, almost all data were revised downwards (compared to the previous September report). In particular, the GDP dropped from 3.1% to 3.0% for this year and from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2019. The rate hikes, forecast three times in 2019, fell to two (at the moment). So, fewer rate hikes and weakened economic conditions certainly don't help the dollar. However, we have to take into account that, right now, it's not the best time to trade. In five days it's Christmas, and most of the big investors are currently out of the markets. So, everything becomes more complicated. In the medium-term, I'm convinced that we will see a drop in the dollar but in the short-term, anything can happen. To all of you Merry Christmas and a New Year full of gains!!
ICEUS:DX1!
by TradingwDavid
US Dollar Index Macro View 16/12Past week, Producer Price Indexes came out better than expected, U.S. consumer prices unchanged and U.S. Retail Sales previous data are revised upwards. Leading to a stronger US Dollars. Upcoming FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, interest rates and Press Conference 30 mins after data release. The Federal Reserve, is highly likely to hike interest rates for the fourth time this year, but how many more hikes will come in 2019? The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12330 & 12260 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels. Disclaimer: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ForexBriefcase