Dollar-index
DXY (1h timeframe )hello dear traders
this price acton for dollar curency index .... this is my personal opinion....
fundamental reason:
While British fund manager abdrn predicts that the U.S. economy will see a soft landing, there is still the risk of a prolonged slowdown in 2025, said Kenneth Akintewe, the company’s head of Asian Sovereign Debt.
Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and should the U.S. Federal Reserve already be easing? Akintewe questioned on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
In the U.S. on Friday, data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, as expected. The data seems to back a smaller rate cut...
AUDUSD D1 - Long SignalAUDUSD D1
We are on the big daily timeframe here for AUDUSD, breaking the previous resistance price level of 0.67. This was a considerable daily resistance price for us. We are now simply looking for a subsequent retest of this zone to see if we can find support on this price level.
If 0.67000 holds as support, we can likely look to position ourselves long with targets of the previous daily high price, nearing 0.68800 price. Circa 180 points.
DXY H8 - Bullish Signal DXY H8
Not a huge amount of movement during the trading sessions yesterday to start the week. We have seen some big, big moves across the likes of XAUUSD and US30, but not much in the FX space. Really hoping to see something pick up off this 105.000 support region.
We have drawn this horizontal black line to highlight this 105.000 handle, and what we would like to see to warrant bullish continuations.
The bearish play was instigated last week from the US cluster data, I think this week we shake it off and continue upside towards that 106.500 price.
DXY H4 - Buy SetupDXY H4
The dollar index has been steadily climbing since it last reached the significant support level of 104.000. We have observed higher highs and higher lows until recent trade (Friday). The release of NFP/AE and UE figures on Friday caused market volatility, notably impacting XAUUSD.
Despite breaking through south of the 105.500 level, we have found some support around 105.000. If 105.000 level holds, we could see a rebound, potentially targeting the 106.500 level once again, which has always been our eventual swing target.
DXY H4 - Long SignalDXY H4
Support price of 105.100 held nicely. We seemed to bounce as we look to continue the bullish trend up towards that next target price of 106.500. Certainly possible, even maybe today if we gear up for more dollar bulls moving into the US session.
We need to first sustain this break above the previous high, we have drawn the resistance (black line) marking previous H4 resistance. Possible retest (could offer entries for ***USD or USD*** pairs if they align).
XAUUSD H4 - Long SignalXAUUSD H4
Here is the outlook for XAUUSD as it stands, we are firm believers in trading what you see. We can see the DXY took a slight bounce from that 104.000 mark and therefore the DXY is still in bullish demand. That being said, $2330/oz has been our previous area of support for a while now, and we hold our ground until it breaks.
Upon a potential break, we can simply change our bias and start trading in line with the new breakout trend (should it sustain). A simple motto we go by, trade what you see and don't fix it unless it's broken. This is the staple of a zone trading strategy. Learn to love your losses when they can occur, because these losses often lead the a monster of a reversal trade.
DXY observations (short term bearish trend)DOLLAR OBSERVATIONS
As price continues its downward trajectory, it has shifted its trend to the downside, leaving behind clear supply zones. One of these zones was previously identified and respected as per last week's forecast. I anticipate this short-term bearish trend to persist until it reaches the 104.200 mark. At that point, I expect a bullish reversal to occur, especially considering the presence of an imbalance just above this level.
Additionally, with price currently in a downtrend, my bullish biases on GU and EU align accordingly. This correlation is logical until either of them reaches the supply zone on the daily chart, which should coincide with the same daily demand zone marked out on DXY.
DXY H4 - Long signal DXY H4
Dollar is moving as expected, bouncing from that 105 price we were marking up and focussing on from last week. Following all the economic data points, support held out and corrected perfectly.
We have since approaching 105.600 price, a key area of S/R. This also ties in with GBPUSD support price. An area where we may see a bit of a correction (as annotated) before seeing the next bullish leg upside.
DXY (dollar index) weekly ideaCurrently, the dollar trend indicates a bearish direction, suggesting that pairs I typically trade, such as GU, EU, and gold, may rise. Presently, I anticipate a retracement to occur towards an 8-hour supply zone I've identified, facilitating the continuation of the bearish trajectory.
This ideally aligns with my strategy until the price drops to around the 104 level, potentially sparking a bullish rally upwards. At that point, I'll need to seek selling opportunities for my other pairs. The dollar's price action appears clear, and there are still imbalances below that require fulfilment.
Have a great trading week guys!
$DXY down, $BTC up - The crazy (but logic) correlationCRYPTOCAP:BTC just printed a "magical" green candle, after a kinda "bearish" upward movement with a lot of divergences. No one was expecting an upward movement like this, and really caught bears and shorters by surprise. The short squeeze here was brutal and a lot of shorters must be in pain.
Anyone could be asking themselves, "what the hell just happened?". This is the time where traders blame "manipulation" and "market makers" as the ones who move the market to their interests, with such a, we could say, "irracional" price action.
Well... There COULD be an explanation.
Historically DXY (The index that measures the strenght of US Dollar in the financial market) have had an inverse correlation to the price of Bitcoin and viceversa.
It has some kind of logic, since, if Bitcoin is bought with dollars, then if dollar lose its value, then you need more dollars to buy Bitcoin! simple math, simple logic. We are not sure if the graphs are 100% correlated themselves, but it makes sense!
Here you can see that I applied the TVC:DXY graph over CRYPTOCAP:BTC graph, but the TVC:DXY is INVERTED, meaning that every time TVC:DXY went up, you can see it here going down. So you can see now more clearly the direct correlation both have.
TVC:DXY just broke a trendline and printed a very strong red candle JUST at the very same time BTC did y massive green candle a liquidated short positions at very important sell zones.
It's kind of easy to predict a big movement of any of both, if one of them does a big move at some point, because you can expect the other to do a big move at the same time or some time later.
Keep an eye ALWAYS on DXY when you are trading Bitcoin or any crypto.
It IS a finantial advice.