DXY: A Tearway Move - in Context DXY Dollar Index
The dollar has been been on a tearaway move ever since
breaking its longer term downtrend at the 90.42 level. By
'tearaway' in DXY terms that means 2%. Huge ! Over 11
calendar days or so. The same as Bitcoin moves in 45 minutes.
This is as exciting as DXY gets. And people seriously trade this
for a living. Some have to but in a world of choice you can do
the math - and choose. It takes all sorts to make a world !
Since breaking above and then retesting the top of the range
structure at 90.93 DXY has surged up the right side of the
chart as fast as fell down the same space on the left side of
the chart.
It's now testing the next line of resistance at the 91.92 level
after an intra-day high 3 points higher. It should consolidate a
little here before breaking higher still to test the 92.55-92.64
range.
Over the more medium term DXY should hit 94.03. Until it
does the dollar is likely to remain a buy dips market.
Dollar-index
Potential drop on weakness!Potential reversal at weakness at 90.98 (LT 61.8% Fibonacci extension, LT 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, multiple swing high resistance) where price could potentially drop to its support at 90.18 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop may occur.
DXY reversed nicely off its resistance, potential to drop more!DXY reversed nicely off its resistance at 89.67 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it could potentially fall to its support at 89.24 (61.8% Fibonacci extension x2, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). We have also identified another stop loss at 89.86 (100% Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 97% where it has a lot of corresponding downside potential.
DXY testing major support, potential bounce!DXY is testing major support area at 89.37 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, fibonacci retracement) and a strong bounce could occur at this level to push price up to our next resistance at 89.93 (fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). If it breaks this intermediate resistance, we could see price rise much further to major resistance at 90.43 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is seeing strong support above 2.5% and a corresponding bounce could occur at this level.
DXY / D1 : Nice risk/rewardHope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Indicators used in this forecast are PRO Sinewave BETA & PRO Momentum .
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Kindly,
Phil
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Dollar index (DXY) Bollinger Squeeze 90.52 to 90.30 area saw bear momentum take the dollar down, but ever since its been coming back up to retest broken support. We are currently seeing bollinger bands narrow down and likely a move will happen soon. Price action tells me that we are still in a bear trend and we would have to be careful if thinking about buying with the landmines around 90.30 and 90.52. If we are able to break it clean we could see the next target being in the upper 91's. If the price keeps getting rejected at resistance we will likely head back down to local support.
DXY (DOLLARINDEX) - Crossing ChannelDXY is bearish , although currently is a corrective 4th wave of a 5th wave within a 4th wave correction of a 5 wave pattern, confusing eh?, I think we may see a head and shoulders (follow the arrows) to finish this phase, I'm seeing an end to this phase around 6-9 April and a resumption of the down trend (wave 5)within the channel. if this analysis is correct this should be the end to falling oil and indices and start of a new bullish phase through to August/September. Whilst I no longer trade due to corruption in the Forex marketplace (false prices quotes, getting stopped out prematurely etc.), I still keep an interest!
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR INDEX – MARCH 19-23, 2018The US Dollar Index is still under pressure from the market. The higher inflation figures announced or the dismissal of Rex Tillerson advisers have resulted in a suspicion of President Trump's policy or the prospect of trade wars due to tax increases or policies to protect the United States's benefits. As a result, the market price of this index still under pressure.
However, when viewing the daily chart, the chart shows pullback. It is possible that there will be a price reversal in the coming weeks.
If the price can close above the resistance level at 90.89, it is likely to be uptrend and can reach resistance at 92.51 and 94.00.
If the price closes below the support level at 88.20, there is a chance that the price will continue in downtrend.
DXY: Dollar Index - 12 day Continuation Pattern OverDXY Dollar Index
The DXY counter-rally (far left arrow) shows a 12 day
continuation pattern from 1st December to 12th before DXY
falls out of the parallels as the decline continues. The right-
hand arrow also shows a 12 day continuation pattern from 1st
February to 12th before DXY once again loses the parallel and
begins to fall away again. Having broken down through 90.02
it should fall away to the 89.61 line and then begin to put up
more of a fight - can dip to 89.51 and bounce and whipsaw at
89.61 to 89.51 and maybe spike as low as 89.30 but DXY must
hold here at lowest today to avoid another retest of the lows
at 888.72 - 8843 range. So far this DXY rally is no more than a
continuation pattern within the overall downtrend. But Dollar
bulls still have the minor double bottom at 88.50-88.40 on
their side and will likely fight hard to protect these levels
again if retested later this week.
DXY Dollar Index - Basing ActivityDXY Dollar Index
We were looking for DXY to show signs of bottoming prior to
potential reversal to the upside last week. It made a double
bottom/slightly higher low showing a loss of downside
momentum, the first signal needed to show a change is in the
air. Some may remember the way that Gold shifted parallels
just as DXY is now doing prior it bottoming out in mid
December...now we have the same behaviour being displayed
on DXY chart. Today, DXY is now pushing the upper parallel
with near term resistance at 89.30 - it's in a small
continuation pattern running under the parallel which at some
point soon is likely to pop to the upside - but so far we have
no great weight of evidence that DXY is doing much other
than consolidating in a 120 pip range at current levels. We do
have a double bottom which has resulted in range trading so
far, but no higher high to signal a clear reversal as yet. Dollar
bulls have to take DXY through the parallel and then above
the lines of resistance at 89.30 and at 89.51 and finally above
89.65 to really start attracting other buyers - but until they
can achieve this DXY is more likely to range trade, with some
big green candles more likely to emerge now than big reds,
and the price action after that green candle being more gentle
consolidation prior to the next green candle emerging. So
small bursts of upward pressure followed by mild but longer
lasting consolidation - dull, grinding price action in near term
but most likely with an upward bias. Still prefer to buy dips
here though not aggressively so yet.
Need to see 89.65 broken above and held to turn aggressively
bullish of DXY looking for 90.19 initially and then, after
consolidating, to 90.99 and then to the 91.80-91-90 range.
On the downside, DXY has to break below key support at
88.43 to turn negative again in near term down to 87.70
where it becomes a buy again on any such weakness.
DXY Dollar Index: Approaching reversal pointDXY Dollar Index
Long Term
We've been aggressively bearish of the Dollar since that first
break below 98.5 back in early May last year. Down another
11% since then it's coming time finally to think about reversing
back long again soon. DXY has already hit and bounced from
the support line at 88.44. Below here lies a long term dynamic
support line which has effectively stalled all Dollar declines
since 2011. It lies at 87.70 and even if DXY suffers one last
decline from here it should halt at 88.44 and at absolute
worst at 87.70 during the course of this week - we should see
the final low put in this weekcoming , and likely by the
following week at latest if we don't hit the bottom this week.
Look to close out most shorts across the dollar pairs into this
final selling climax if we see it materialise over the next few
days. Swing traders should now, finally, be looking to follow
suit too.
DXY Shorter Term
Last week DXY made a new low at 88.44 before bouncing 1%
to 89.51 resistance line with a high at 89.53...The 88.44 level
is one of two likely levels to look for a reversal in trend, the
other being the longer term dynamic support line, at 87.70
now. If the first level is to be the reversal point DXY will
continue rallying from here and not break below the tiny
rising dynamic directly under price right now...then comes
the bigger test: it has to break above the upper parallel and
break 89.53 and then hold on the retest - that would flip DXY
back to near term positive and send it back to 92.62 and the
falling dynamic resistance line shown on the chart above,
where it's next major challenge will most likely lie. Follow
that break if we see it materialise at any point this week
Downside
If in the alternative DXY loses the little dynamic holding it up
and then falls below 88.88 it will fall back to 88.44 again and
if it cannot base there and make a double bottom it will fall
away to the second key level at 87.70 - at which point it
should start to find some support. If so start closing out dollar
shorts and look to build longs from here. Otherwise, the
safer/less risky option for swing traders is to forget about
bottom fishing wait to see at what point DXY finally exits the
upper parallel of this impulse wave - which has, so far,
controlled all upside potential for DXY throughout this
current down-wave - and follow that break when it eventually
comes, looking for 92.60 initially.
US DOLLAR INDEX -> 87.62 - 87.78 = TURNING POINT?Is it time for the US Dollar to start regaining its strength?
Strictly judging by my own technicals I'm seeing a potential reversal point around the 87.62-87.78 range where we see a strong confluence of a the 50.0% Fib retracement and 161.8% Fib extension.
The deceptive US DollarThe DXY has found some support following a recent dramatic fall. This seems more like a retracement in a primary downtrend rather than a reversal and I wouldn't go long at this point unless:
1. it breaks through the major resistance line and stays above it AND
2. breaks through and stays above the supply zone
US INDEX - GLOBAL FORECAST 2018Hello Traders!
Accurately suppose, that the "Flat" model and Bull's "Cumulation Balance", will be on US index the whole 2018 year.
So... Based on intermarket correlation, it gives the opportunity for downtrend on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and uptrend for USDJPY, USDCAD,USDCHF.
Best regards, team traders ''Powerful Traders".
DXY Dollar Index Trying to put up a stand at 91.76 supportDXY Dollar Index
The Dollar Index has fallen to the next blue line of support
91.76 after an intra-day low at 91.75. It's trying to hold here.
It's still trapped in a near term downwave and struggling to
escape. It's already made one attempt to escape the down-trend
and is trying again now. There are pins forming below the low
and above it too on the 2 hour chart, denoting conflict/confusion
here. For the bulls to win some respite they need to force
DXY above 91.95 and hold it there (and no lower than 91.92
on a retest once 91.95 is taken) to attract more buyers up to
92.05-92.12 range where DXY will likely turn back down again.
For DXY to show it's turning back up from that point it will have to
take back 92.12 and then turn 92.04 into support when tested
from above. Will need to see something like this kind of price
action to convince that DXY has more upside to 92.49-92.55
On the downside the next support below 91.76 lies at 91.52 with major support/maximum likely downside target at 91.02. A move below any blue line by more than a couple of pips is likely to trigger further weakness back to the next one.