2024 US Recession | Key Factors2000 DOT-COM CRISIS
The dot-com crisis, also known as the "dot-com bubble" or "dot-com crash," was a period of economic turbulence that affected the technology and telecommunications sectors in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some key points:
Euphoria Phase: In the 1990s, there was a boom in the technology and dot-com industry fueled by irrational investor euphoria. Many companies secured significant funding, even if they had weak or nonexistent business models.
Excessive Valuations: Valuations of technology companies skyrocketed, often based on exaggerated growth projections and unrealistic expectations. This led to rampant speculation in financial markets.
Bubble and Collapse: In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Many investors realized that numerous technology companies were unable to generate profits in the short term. This triggered a massive sell-off of stocks and a collapse in tech stock prices.
Economic Impacts: The crisis had widespread economic impacts, with the loss of value in many technology stocks and the bankruptcy of numerous companies. Investors suffered heavy losses, and this had repercussions on the entire stock market.
Economic Lessons: The dot-com crisis led to a reassessment of investment practices and taught lessons about the importance of carefully analyzing companies' fundamentals and avoiding investments based solely on speculative expectations.
Following this crisis, the technology sector experienced a correction but also contributed to shaping the industry in a more sustainable way. Many companies that survived the crisis implemented more realistic and sustainable strategies, contributing to the subsequent growth and development of the technology sector.
2007-2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS
The 2007-2008 financial crisis was a widespread event that had a significant impact on the global economy. Here are some key points:
Origins in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: The crisis originated in the U.S. real estate sector, particularly in subprime mortgages (high-risk). An increase in mortgage defaults led to severe losses for financial institutions holding securities tied to these loans.
Spread of Financial Problems: Losses in the mortgage sector spread globally, involving international financial institutions. Lack of transparency in complex financial products contributed to the crisis's diffusion.
Bank Failures and Government Bailouts: Several major financial institutions either failed or were on the brink of failure. Government interventions, including bailouts and nationalizations, were necessary to prevent the collapse of the financial system.
Stock Market Crashes: Global stock markets experienced significant crashes. Investors lost confidence in financial institutions, leading to a flight from risk and an economic contraction.
Impact on the Real Economy: The financial crisis directly impacted the real economy. The ensuing global recession resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, decreased industrial production, and a contraction in consumer spending.
Financial Sector Reforms: The crisis prompted a reevaluation of financial regulations. In response, many nations implemented reforms to enhance financial oversight and mitigate systemic risks.
Lessons Learned: The financial crisis underscored the need for more effective risk management, increased transparency in financial markets, and better monitoring of financial institutions.
The 2007-2008 financial crisis had a lasting impact on the approach to economic and financial policies, leading to greater awareness of systemic risks and the adoption of measures to prevent future crises.
2019 PRE COVID
In 2019, I closely observed a significant event in the financial markets: the inversion of the yield curve, with 3-month yields surpassing those at 2, 5, and 10 years. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is generally considered an advanced signal of a potential economic recession and has often been linked to various financial crises in the past. The inversion of the yield curve occurred when short-term government bond yields, such as those at 3 months, exceeded those at long-term, like 2, 5, and 10 years. This situation raised concerns among investors and analysts, as historically, similar inversions have been followed by periods of economic contraction. Subsequently, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, originating in late 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The virus was identified as a new strain of coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2. The global spread of the virus was rapid throughout 2020, causing a worldwide pandemic. Countries worldwide implemented lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the virus's spread. The economic impact of the pandemic was significant globally, with sectors such as tourism, aviation, and hospitality particularly affected, leading to business closures and job losses. Efforts to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 were intense, and in 2020, several vaccines were approved, contributing to efforts to contain the virus's spread. In 2021, the Delta variant of the virus emerged as a highly transmissible variant, leading to new increases in cases in many regions worldwide. Subsequent variants continued to impact pandemic management. Government and health authorities' responses varied from country to country, with measures ranging from lockdowns and mass vaccinations to specific crisis management strategies. The pandemic highlighted the need for international cooperation, robust healthcare systems, and global preparedness to address future pandemics. In summary, the observation of the yield curve inversion in 2019 served as a predictive element, suggesting imminent economic challenges, and the subsequent pandemic confirmed the complexity and interconnectedness of factors influencing global economic health.
2024 Outlook
The outlook for 2024 presents significant economic challenges, outlined by a series of critical indicators. At the core of these dynamics are the interest rates, which have reached exceptionally high levels, fueling an atmosphere of uncertainty and impacting access to credit and spending by businesses and consumers. One of the primary concerns is the inversion of the yield curve, manifested between July and September 2022. This phenomenon, often associated with periods of economic recession, has heightened alarm about the stability of the economic environment. The upward break of the 3-month curve compared to the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year curves has raised questions about the future trajectory of the economy. Simultaneously, housing prices in the United States have reached historic highs, raising concerns about a potential real estate bubble. This situation prompts questions about the sustainability of the real estate market and the risks associated with a potential collapse in housing prices. Geopolitical instability further contributes to the complexity of the economic landscape. With ongoing conflicts in Russia, the Red Sea, Palestine, and escalating tensions in Taiwan, investors are compelled to assess the potential impact of these events on global economic stability. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Composite Index, showing an upward trend since December 2021, suggests an increase in financial difficulties among consumers. Similarly, the charge-off rate on credit card loans for all commercial banks, increasing since the first quarter of 2022, reflects growing financial pressure on consumers and the banking sector. In this context, it is essential to adopt a prudent approach based on a detailed analysis of economic and financial data. The ability to adapt to changing market conditions becomes crucial for individuals, businesses, and financial institutions. Continuous monitoring of the evolution of economic and geopolitical indicators will be decisive in understanding and addressing the challenges that 2024 may bring.
Dollar-index
DXY Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY was falling down
Sharply but then hit
A horizontal support level
Of 100.57 from where
We are already seeing
A bullish reaction and
I think that we will see
A further move up
Buy!
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DXY - The Leading Index For 2024Hello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Dollar Index.
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Explanation of my chart analysis:
DXY (Dollar Index) has been forming a triple bottom all the way back in 2008 and has been rising ever since. With the recent break above the psychological $100 level, the DXY is once again confirming the bullish strength. If DXY doesn't break below this area, I am targeting new swing highs.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
DXY D1 - Short SetupDXY D1
The dollar index has drifted lower, aligning with the latest developments and insights pertaining to the battle against inflation and central bank interest rates. We witnessed a significant downward move, sliding from 104.000 to 102.000, amounting to a substantial 200-point drop. Subsequently, we are observing a modest rebound, mirroring the overarching global trends highlighted earlier.
A potential adjustment back to the 103.000 level would be a logical move for us. This would constitute a robust 50% correction, harmonising seamlessly with our established trading zone for potential short positions.
DXY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in a downtrend
And the index broke a wide
Horizontal key level around 103.000
Which is now a resistance so as the
Price is about to retest the
Resistance we will be expecting
A local move down
Sell!
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DXY D1 DXY D1
The dollar has sold off a healthy amount from swing lows to swing highs here, but we are now sitting on a key point of pivot. We could look to trade higher in line with a break of trend as indicated, or lower with a continuation of trend.
Sitting on the sideline for the moment until we can see some sort of confirmation confirming either of the above.
XAUUSD D1 - Neutral XAUUSD D1
Last night, XAUUSD experienced a remarkable surge of +720 points as the markets unfolded, driven by a confluence of factors, previously mentioned above.
Notably, the XAUUSD markets are steadily advancing toward historic highs, and the market opening triggered a substantial influx of buying pressure, low volume causing such aggressive spikes, since we have corrected below market open price.
It’s going to be a tame day I imagine given such wild moves witnessed.
DXY (Dollar$) Shorts down to 101.500The bias for the dollar this week remains bearish, leading me to anticipate further downward trends. Near the current price, there is a supply zone on the 3-hour chart where we'll wait for price redistribution. Following that, we'll await confirmation on a lower timeframe to execute the sell trade. Additionally, I anticipate a minor reaction from the 13-hour demand zone, presenting potential small buying opportunities.
Subsequently, we anticipate the price to continue its descent and then respond to a 3-hour demand at 101.500. This is where I expect the price to retrace upwards, providing a more favourable opportunity for a buy trade.
Confluences for DXY Shorts are as follows:
- The short term trend currently is bearish (with perpetual BOS's to the downside.)
- Trend lines below act as magnets, pulling the price downwards and encouraging a bearish continuation.
- To evoke a bullish reaction from the price next, there's a strong demand zone on the 3hr time frame.
- A clear 3-hour supply zone sits above the current price, where we can expect a bearish response.
- By the candle stick anatomy bearish candles are very strong, holding lots of momentum.
P.S. I also observe the potential for the price to rise, targeting a more favourable supply zone like the (7hr) to initiate a robust bearish movement. Despite the strong bearish trend currently, we will primarily seek opportunities aligning with the trend. However, the next viable counter-trend trade would be at the 3-hour demand level around 101.500.
DXY D1 - Bullish BounceDXY D1 - Relief Rally
The dollar index has undergone a significant retreat, showcasing a robust decline from the recent swing low to the swing high. It elegantly touched the 618 region, displaying a compelling wick, and gracefully closed just above our crucial 103.000 support level.
Anticipating a potential rebound from this fortifying support zone, we may witness a temporary respite before a possible breach of the 103.000 support on the imminent second attempt.
Meanwhile, the US30, US100, and XAUUSD are scaling impressive heights, mirroring the upward momentum seen in GBPUSD and EURUSD. Stay tuned for a detailed analysis unfolding shortly.
DXY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY broke the key
Horizontal level of 103.329
Which is now a resistance
And the breakout is confirmed
So we are now bearish biased
And we will be expecting
A further move down
After some pullback and retest
Sell!
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DXY D1 - Short SignalDXY D1
We continue to navigate to the southside here with the dollar index. During recent trade and events over the past few weeks.
Should we breach the significant 103.000 threshold, our sights are set on the next target at 101.500.
Additionally, anticipate a continued upward trajectory for XAUUSD, with all-time highs on the horizon.
DXY D1 - Short SignalThe dollar index has experienced a rebound, surpassing the 103.00 threshold. When examining currency pairs such as GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and EURUSD, it becomes evident that there is further potential for movement within the frameworks we are monitoring. This suggests the likelihood of DXY breaching the 103.000 support level, setting the stage for extended targets in the vicinity of 101.500.
More analysis to follow on AUDUSD, GBPUSD and the like.
DXY D1 - Neutral outlookDXY D1
The dollar index has displayed robust corrective movements in recent weeks, buoyed by a diverse set of supporting data points. The 103.000 handle emerges as a pivotal support zone, potentially paving the way for a substantial rebound in the USD. It remains to be seen how events will unfold.
Examining the market from its swing low to swing high, a substantial and healthy 55% correction has taken place thus far.
DXY D1 - Short SignalDXY D1
We've successfully breached the lower boundary of the previously anticipated support zone, as forecasted last week.
There's potential for a retracement to retest the indicated price level before a further decline, aligning with the bearish sentiment on the USD, really looking to see some more dollar weakness unfold this week.
DXY D1 - Short SetupDXY D1
Today, or at least this morning is all about waiting for these corrections to unfold and settle. The DXY is being used to compare against FX pairs, and we are just waiting to see whether this resistance price holds, or breaks.
Like I say, we aren't looking to trade just yet, merely try and get some consensus of direction early on in the week, we can then trade off the back of that.
$DXYCAPITALCOM:DXY
good dayAccording to the chart of the financial markets, the dollar index has the potential to grow up to the range of 104
At the same time, all stocks will fallWatch the news
According to what I said, my prediction is the increase of interest rates and the strength of the dollar in the above time frame.
US30 D1 - Sell zone from 35,000US30 H8
We indicated the 34000 sell zone yesterday, and we have since seen a tame 1.5R from this area. Speaking with a few followers, this is something they've capitalised on. That being said, the concern for DXY downside throws a spanner in the works, and the chances of US30 pushing towards 35000 is becoming more and more.
35000 is certainly a preferred sell zone, psychological price, D1 resistance and supply, 2 previous tests. Also, this would tie in with US100 15500 target pace too.