Dollar-yen
USDJPY LONGYen pairs really took a battering last month. However, this month should see a fightback from the yen bears.
Having said this, USDJPY seems to be coming back down to the bottom of it's downtrend channel and a reversal is on the cards.
However, I would be cautious as this pair has come down very strongly forming a very bearish daily/weekly/monthly candle on the close of Friday.
I hope to see USDJPY dip further on Monday/Tuesday with signs of bulls coming in to the London/New York sessions on either day to give me confidence before going long.
Trade safe and good luck!
USDJPY 108.65 upcoming resistanceThe US dollar has started to rise against the Japanese yen currency, with buyers now attempting to break away from the pair’s recently established trading range. The 108.65 level offers solid resistance, while the 109.00 level is the major intraday resistance level. If the move higher is a false breakout, the USDJPY pair could easily still test towards the 107.40 level this week.
The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 108.44 level, key support is found at the 107.70 and 107.40 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 108.44 level, key technical resistance is found at the 108.65 and 109.00 levels.
Failure data from ADP, ECB decision & BoA warnings Primarily the data on the US labor market from ADP was remembered yesterday. The number of jobs in private companies in the US in May increased by 27K (the forecast was + 180K). The figures are frankly failing and extremely alarming, given that official statistics from the US Department of Labor will be published on Friday.
The dollar was one of the first victims of such data. Such a negative reaction is due to two main factors. Firstly, the US economy clearly signals problems, and secondly, such data is a reason for the Fed to establish itself in the expediency of reducing rates. Naturally, both of these factors are extremely negative for the dollar.
Well, at the end of the day, the dollar managed to recover. One of the reasons was the publication of pretty good data on business activity indices. Secondly, there is, of course, a chance that Friday's labor market data will not disappoint. Nevertheless, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales.
The key event will be the announcement of the ECB meeting decision. Monetary policy parameters are likely to remain unchanged, but forecasts for economic growth will be revised downwards. In addition, weak Eurozone inflation data, published this week, led to the fact that the markets no longer expected to tighten monetary policy in the foreseeable future, and now they are waiting for its further softening. In particular, traders assume a 0.1% reduction in the rate by July of next year.
This is definitely a bearish signal for the euro, so today we will refrain from recommending to buy euros. Well, or at least make it from very attractive points.
Meanwhile, analysts are continuing to analyze the of a trade war possible consequence. The Bank of America experts named a number of possible scenarios for the situation development (between the USA and China). In particular, China’s exit from US public debt, delisting of Chinese ADRs, the exodus of American investors from the Chinese market, which is fraught with stock and bond sales on the markets, Chinese IPOs could lose access to the American financial market, and finally, countries could start a full-fledged currency war. So to the question “Could the situation become worse?” The answer is unequivocal “could.”
Our position for today: we will continue to look for points for selling of the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will sell the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
USDJPY 107.40 bearish targetThe US dollar starts the new trading month under heavy downside pressure against the Japanese yen following the bearish breakout below the 109.00 level. Further losses in the USDJPY pair still appear possible as the bearish head and shoulders pattern has a target of 107.40 level. The United States ISM report later today is likely to have a big impact on the direction of the US dollar.
The USDJPY pair is heavily bearish while trading below the 108.70 level, key support is found at the 108.00 and 107.70 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 108.70 level, key technical resistance is found at the 109.00 and 109.30 levels.
USDJPY pattern completeThe US dollar has started to reverse direction against the Japanese yen after finding strong technical resistance from the 109.92 level. The direction of the USDJPY pair is increasingly linked to the bearish head and shoulders pattern on the four-hour time frame. Overall, the bearish head and shoulders pattern on the four-hour time frame and the releases are core PCE data from the US economy are the main themes to watch.
The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 109.80 level, key support is found at the 109.00 and 108.40 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.80 level, key technical resistance is found at the 109.92 and 110.30 levels.
USDJPY nearing breakout supportThe US dollar has slipped back towards the worst trading levels of the week against the Japanese yen currency due to recessionary fears coming from the US bond market. USDJPY bulls have also been unable to move price above the 109.60 level placing the emphasis back towards the downside. The four-hour time frame chart continues to highlight that a break below the 109.00 level will trigger heavy technical selling.
The USDJPY pair is heavily bearish while trading below the 109.60 level, key support is found at the 109.00 and 108.40 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.60 level, key intraday resistance is remains at the 109.80 and 110.00 levels.
109.00 major supportThe US dollar has opened early Monday trading under downside pressure against the Japanese yen after the pair suffered its softest weekly price close since January 2019. If USDJPY sellers can force price below the 109.00 support level, the 108.40 level will then start to come into focus. USDJPY bulls need to move price above the 109.80 level to negate the heavily bearish sentiment surrounding the pair.
The USDJPY pair is heavily bearish while trading below the 109.00 level, key support is found at the 108.40 and 107.70 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.80 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 110.00 and 110.30 levels.
USDJPY bearish below 110.00The US dollar is now under heavy selling pressure against the Japanese yen, following much weaker than expected PMI manufacturing data from the United States economy. The USDJPY pair has a bearish intraday bias while trading below the 110.00 level and could soon target the 109.00 level. If the 109.00 level is broken the 108.40 level then offers the strongest form of weekly support.
The USDJPY pair is intraday bearish while trading below the 110.00 level, key support is found at the 109.00 and 108.40 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 110.00 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 110.30 and 110.60 levels.
USDJPY slight bearish biasThe US dollar is under slight downward pressure against the Japanese yen currency on Thursday as the pair continues to correct lower after finding strong resistance above the 110.60 level. Further losses below the 110.20 support level should trigger additional intraday weakness towards the psychological 110.00 level. The 110.90 level is now the strongest form of weekly technical resistance for the USDJPY pair above the 110.60 level.
The USDJPY pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 110.30 level, key resistance is found at the 110.60 and 110.90 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades below the 110.30 level, key intraday support is found at the 110.20 and 110.00 levels.
USDJPY Intraday ForecastAs we forecast downtrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests sell (limit) below R1=110.45.
But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets:
TP3: S1=110.05.
TP4: S2=109.8.
Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of R2=110.65.
Stop and reverse:
If trend gets reversed, buy (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of R2=110.65.
In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target R3=111.3.
Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of R1=110.45.
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USDJPY bullish above 110.60The US dollar has staged a strong upside recovery against the Japanese yen currency, with the pair reaching its upside corrective target. The USDJPY pair has a weekly bullish bias while trading above the 110.60 level and may target the 111.00 level if buyers can maintain upside pressure. Technical failure around the 110.60 level will likely prompt a test of the 110.20 support level.
The USDJPY pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 110.66 level, key resistance is found at the 111.00 and 111.30 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades below the 110.60 level, key intraday support is found at the 110.20 and 109.80 levels.
USDJPY chasing bullish targetThe US dollar has recovered back above 110.00 level against the Japanese yen currency following a brief correction towards the 109.70 support level. USDJPY bulls now appear to be launching a fresh attack towards key breakout resistance, at the 110.60 resistance level. Technical indicators on the four-hour time frame are still pointing higher as short-term bullish momentum continues to grow.
The USDJPY pair is bullish while trading above the 109.66 level, key resistance is found at the 110.20 and 110.60 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades below the 110.00 level, key intraday support is found at the 109.66 and 109.00 levels.
USDJPY 110.60 major resistanceThe US dollar is trading back above the 110.00 level against the Japanese yen currency following a renewed bid tone surrounding the greenback. If USDJPY bulls can continue to hold price above the 110.00 level we may see another technical attempt towards the resistance 110.60 level. The 109.66 support level now becomes the key weekly pivot point for the USDJPY pair.
The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 109.66 level, key support is found at the 109.00 and 108.40 levels.
If the USDJPY pair holds above the 109.66 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 110.00 and 110.60 levels.