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USDJPY: My next 2 moves as I expect BoJ to defend their currencyI'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to this, but right now the dollar is too strong for this to have made a difference. I'm expecting DXY to retrace from current levels and this cross could be a big beneficiary if BoJ do what I think, it's always good to trade strength against weakness. There could well be some little long scalp opportunities for me (with very very tight SL's moving to BE asap) on the way up to 150 (within the rising wedge) as that's still some good pips away, but for me the bigger moves now will be to the downside. I'm not planning on getting caught with any longs up here... This is a big news week for this pair with FOMC on Wednesday and BoJ interest rate decision and conference Friday, will be interesting to see how this all pans out ahead of these fundamentals, but beyond them I'm expecting things to play out as per this idea. I've plotted two moves, first from the 150 ish mark down to support, and then another sell down to the rising long term trendline.
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
✨ NEW: USDJPY ✨ DT SWING✨-SL @ 150.00 🚫 SLO @ 148.90 (conservative) ⏳ SSO @ 147.75 (moderate) ⏳ TP1 @ 142.66 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 139.15 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 136.60 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 132.60 (closing ALL Sell Orders) BLO @ 129.33 (1D) ⏳ -SL @ 128.25 🚫 ADDITIONAL INFO: 📈 Price Action is nearing our SLO. Just a few more pips to the upside, our SLO will trigger, and it's off to the bank after that. 📉 Let's catch this DT and enjoy the ride because it's gonna be a long one. 📉 Also, I placed a pending SSO, just in case we don't get our SLO filled
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
✨ MODIFICATION: USDJPY ✨ SWING TRADE (1D/3H) ✨00:00 Swing vs Position Trades 01:45 Supply / Resistance 02:36 Entries and Targets 04:16 Intermediate vs High Time Frame 05:43 Demand Zone (3H) 07:42 Day Trade Opportunities 10:37 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join MAJOR RESISTANCE @ 149.00 -SL @ 147.60 🚫 SLO2 @ 146.60 (conservative) ⏳ SLO1 @ 145.15 (aggressive) ⏳ SSO1 @ 143.10 (aggressive) ⏳*** SSO2 @ 142.95 (moderate) ⏳ SSO3 @ 142.70 (conservative) ⏳ TP1 @ 142.25 (2D) (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 139.00 (3H) (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 135.75 (2D) (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 131.50 (12M) (closing ALL Sell Orders) MAJOR SUPPORT @ 130.50 BLO1 @ 129.15 (1D) ⏳ BLO2 @ 128.15 (1D) ⏳ -SL @ 126.75 🚫 ***PLEASE NOTE: SSO2 and SSO3 are NOT annotated on the chart, but are listed here as alternative Sell Stop Orders WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
USDJPY: Detailed Technical Outlook 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY is trading in a strong bullish trend on a daily. Ahead, I see a solid horizontal resistance from where the market may initiate a correctional movement. Analyzing a price action on 4H time frame, I noticed that the pair started to slow down. The price is currently trading within a rising channel. To catch the initiation of a correctional movement, wait for a bearish breakout of the support of the channel. 4H candle close below that will confirm the violation. A bearish continuation will be expected then. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the underlined blue are will be a strong bullish signal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
8
✨ NEW: USDJPY ✨ DT (3M/1D) ✨SLO2 @ 154.90 ⏳ -SL @ 149.00 🚫 SLO1 @ 146.50 TP1 @ 131.00 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 117.75 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 108.15 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 108.15 (shaving 25%) BLO1 @ 80.60 ⏳ BLO2 @ 77.85 ⏳ TIMELINE 00:00 SHOUT OUT TO BRAD MCAFEE 00:40 FXCM Historical Data 02:05 Institutional Buying Range 02:54 Price Action 03:35 Supply Zone 04:47 Shaving at each TP 05:15 Institutional Ranges / Movement 06:38 Secondary Supply and Stop Loss 08:15 Going LONG now is an Aggressive Entry 08:50 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe Japanese Yen (JPY) recently bounced back from its lowest point in seven months against the US Dollar (USD), following a statement from Japan's leading currency official that they are open to considering all possibilities regarding the currency. The recent depreciation of the Yen has been attributed to a policy gap between the accommodative Bank of Japan (BoJ) and foreign central banks, which are following a more aggressive monetary policy approach. Despite the potential for the US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate to climb higher, the recent intervention by Japanese authorities at the 145 mark indicates that short-selling the Yen may pose significant risks. Chris Turner, ING Bank: USD/JPY's Volatile Dance Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING Bank offers a perspective focused on the potential for a strong dollar to continue pushing the USD/JPY higher. "The strong dollar environment keeps USD/JPY grinding higher and approaching the 145 area, where Japanese authorities sold FX last September," says Turner. This suggests an anticipation of Japanese intervention should the USD to JPY exchange rate continue its upward trend. However, Turner also predicts potential volatility. "Over the coming month, we can see USD/JPY sharply bouncing around in a 140-145 range – suggesting that short-dated USD/JPY option volatility is priced a little too low," he adds. This indicates that while the dollar's strength could push the pair higher, market participants should also brace for possible fluctuations within a defined range. Yoshio Takahashi, Natwest: BoJ's Cautious Stance Yoshio Takahashi, Chief Japan Economist at Natwest, highlights the role of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decisions in shaping the Yen's trajectory. According to Takahashi, the board continues to voice caution about adjusting policy settings too hastily, implying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of stronger wage growth. "Multiple mentions of the possibility of 2H FY2023 inflation exceeding current expectations suggest to us that the BoJ is quite likely to upwardly revise its official projections at the July meeting," says Takahashi. This hints at the BoJ's dovish stance and the potential impact it could have on the yen. The strategist also highlights the impact of politics on the currency. "BOJ watchers will also need to be keeping at least one eye on exchange rate movements and domestic politics. Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masato Kanda ramped up his yen-supportive jawboning on June 26," Takahashi adds, signalling that political interventions and verbal tactics could significantly influence the yen's position. Roberto Mialich, UniCredit: Monetary Policy Uncertainty UniCredit's FX Strategist, Roberto Mialich, underscores the influence of monetary policy uncertainty on the yen's weakness. According to Mialich, doubts about the BoJ's policy normalization this year are contributing to the yen's broad weakness. "The JPY fall is mostly due to doubts about the BoJ’s policy normalization this year. The Japanese forward curve has already moved to reflect this uncertainty," says Mialich. Looking ahead, Mialich forecasts potential for change. "We see the 19 December BoJ meeting as the one in which a first step in normalization might be announced. This might drag USD-JPY to 135," he adds. Despite the yen's current softness, Mialich sees potential for its recovery should the BoJ take steps towards policy normalization. Paul Mackel, HSBC: The Weight of Intervention and Yield Caps Turning our lens to the analysis from Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, there's an assertion of a cap on USD/JPY's growth, primarily influenced by the threat of foreign exchange intervention and the upper limit of US Treasury yields. "USD-JPY is likely to be capped by the threat of FX intervention and US Treasury yields already towards the top end of the recent trading range," says Mackel. This denotes an environment where growth in the pair could be restrained by multiple macroeconomic factors. In light of a potential policy change by the BoJ in September, Mackel maintains a cautious stance. "It is too early to play that in the JPY but the worst-performing currency in G10 FX so far this year may at least enjoy some stability in the coming weeks," he adds. His comments suggest a degree of near-term stability in the yen despite it being the underperformer among G10 currencies this year. Barclays Analysts: Rising Intervention Risks Analysts at Barclays share similar concerns regarding intervention by Japanese authorities. Their analysis also touches on the recent depreciation of the yen due to diverging monetary policy between a dovish BoJ and hawkish central banks overseas. "Recent JPY depreciation has been driven by policy divergence between a dovish BoJ and hawkish central banks overseas," Barclays analysts suggest. This perspective underscores the global forces at play influencing the yen's standing in the foreign exchange market. The forecasted rise in Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the recent verbal intervention also feature prominently in Barclays' outlook. "Although USDJPY could head higher still, recent intervention by the Japanese authorities around 145 makes yen shorts an increasingly dangerous proposition here," they add. This implies the possibility of a continued rise in USD/JPY, though not without associated risks owing to likely intervention. Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole: Gauging the Intervention Risk Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole, presents an intriguing perspective on the interplay between the yen's value and the possibility of intervention. "Japan’s FX Tsar, Masato Kanda, has ramped up his verbal intervention in USD/JPY following the exchange rate’s move to nearly 144 late on Friday," says Marinov. His comment highlights the growing concern within Japan about the pace and magnitude of the yen's depreciation against the dollar. Marinov's forecast hinges on the valuation of USD/JPY exchange rate and the potential verbal and actual intervention by Japanese authorities. "A move towards 146 would see USD/JPY become significantly overvalued, however. USD/JPY traders should next watch for Kanda using the phrases that FX is 'clearly not reflecting fundamentals' or that movements in FX are 'clearly being excessive' or 'one side'," he adds. This insight reflects the delicate balance in the FX market and the potential triggers that might spur a more forceful response from Japanese authorities.
by thunderpips
USDJPY: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Here is my latest structure analysis for USDJPY. Horizontal Key Levels Resistance 1: 143.54 - 144.10 area Resistance 2: 145.10 - 145.60 area Resistance 3: 148.70 - 148.90 area Resistance 4: 151.70 - 151.90 area Support 1: 142.00 - 142.50 area Support 2: 140.60 - 141.45 area Support 3: 137.40 - 138.80 area Vertical Key Levels Vertical Support 1: rising trend line Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
4
USDJPY Mid-Term Bearish Expectation/Analysis The explanation for this analysis is in the text on the chart This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy, which includes the: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC PD: excuse my poor english
CME:6J1!Short
by SmartMoneySource
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
3
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts From MUFG Japanese Yen: Long-Term Pressure for Yen Gains As far as the yen is concerned, the Bank of Japan has continued to resist policy tightening, but MUFG suspects that the position could change very quickly. It notes; “We suspect the BoJ could pivot quickly and alter YCC without much warning.” The bank also expects that the underlying inflation profile has increased which could have important implications for the central bank and yen. It adds; “The sense that this time could be different is certainly building in Japan.” An eventual policy shift is expected to boost the heavily-undervalued yen.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary stance remained unchanged as they didn't convene, keeping the key policy rate at -0.10% and the 10-year yield at around zero percent due to Yield Curve Control. Several factors contributed to the Yen's weakening, including reassessments of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening outlook, which generally boosted the dollar. The 10-year breakeven rose significantly, hinting at rising inflation expectations in Japan. With inflation hitting new highs and property values also increasing, real yields in Japan are falling. Despite rising inflation, the BoJ's apparent lack of urgency to change its current monetary stance has also influenced the Yen's movement. However, there are suggestions that the BoJ might change its Yield Curve Control without much warning. With possible political factors also in play, the overall view, according to analysts at MUFG, is of limited scope for further rise in the USD/JPY exchange rate, given the Fed's projected pause in June. Japanese Yen Performance in May The Yen's performance against other major currencies in May has been mixed, the Japanese currency saw a depreciation against the US dollar but a strengthening against the Euro. "In May the yen weakened further versus the US dollar in terms of London closing rates from 136.09 to 139.68" says Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities at MUFG. Bank of Japan's Monetary Stance Despite the fluctuations, there hasn't been a change in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The central bank's current stance remained steady with a key policy rate of -0.10% and the ten-year yield managed within a +/- 50bps range due to Yield Curve Control (YCC). "The BoJ did not meet in May and hence its current monetary stance was unchanged with the key policy rate at -0.10% and YCC restraining the 10-year yield within a range of +/-50bps around zero percent," says Halpenny. Factors Influencing the JPY's Exchange Rate Performance Several macroeconomic dynamics influenced the Yen's performance in May. A crucial contributor to these dynamics was a reappraisal of the Federal Reserve's perspective on monetary policy tightening in the US, which resulted in a strengthening of the US dollar. "Firstly, the reassessment of the outlook for monetary tightening by the Fed helped lift the dollar in general in May and that helped propel USD/JPY higher," Halpenny states. He adds, "From close to a zero probability, OIS pricing now indicates around a 50% probability of another rate hike by the Fed." Furthermore, the Yen's value was impacted by domestic economic indicators. There's been a significant increase in real yields (the returns on investments that have been adjusted for the effects of inflation) in Japan, accompanied by a surge in inflation expectations. "Real yields have been falling sharply in Japan with inflation expectations jumping. The 10yr breakeven jumped 20bps in May and reached close to 1.00%, the highest since June 2022," Halpenny notes. Impact of Asset Price Inflation The rising inflation in Japan wasn't just limited to goods and services, but also included a surge in asset prices. A broad spectrum of assets, including the Topix Index, property prices, and land prices, experienced significant gains. The TOPIX, or Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a broad stock market index that tracks all domestic companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), the largest stock market in Japan. It includes a wide range of company sizes and sectors, making it a comprehensive barometer of the overall Japanese equity market. "The Topix Index surged 3.6% in May in contrast to a 0.2% gain in the S&P 500. Property prices and land prices are also moving higher in Japan," says Halpenny. Despite the rising inflation and falling real yields, the BoJ appears untroubled about the situation and is in no hurry to change its monetary policy. "Adding to yen selling is the clear sense of a lack of urgency from Governor Ueda to change the current monetary stance," says Halpenny. However, there are signs that the BoJ might spring a surprise and make quick alterations to its YCC policy. "We suspect the BoJ could pivot quickly and alter YCC without much warning," Halpenny states. In the backdrop of all these factors, the outlook for the Yen seems nuanced. The combination of increasing inflation, changing monetary policy stances, and political factors all paint a picture of restrained potential for further appreciation of the Yen against the US Dollar, especially with a projected pause in the Federal Reserve's policy actions in June. "With the Fed set to pause in June, we see limited scope for USD/JPY to move higher from here," Halpenny concludes.
Short
by thunderpips
3
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISUSD/JPY has reversed from a high near 141, largely on the back of shrinking expectations that the Fed would hike in June. That is now priced with a 25% probability rather than a 70% probability attached to it last month. We have noted that the current environment should continue to see interest in carry trade strategies – where the Japanese yen scores poorly. However, USD/JPY looks overvalued relative to the terms of trade story – which is much better for the yen than a year ago. In addition, there is still the risk that the Bank of Japan surprises on 16 June by further normalising its Yield Curve Control policy. That would be a yen positive. And thus it would not be a surprise to see speculator investors trying to re-position short USD/JPY above 140 – even if such a strategy has already proved painful this year.
Short
by thunderpips
2
✨NEW: USDJPY ✨ SWING TRADE ✨SLO @ 144.05 ⏳ SSO @ 138.33 ⏳ TP1 @ 134.00 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 125.50 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 119.25 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 110.75 (shaving 25%) TP5 @ 103.85 (shaving 25%) BSO @ 101.66 ⏳ BLO @ 99.66 ⏳ ADDITIONAL INFO: TP1 @ 134.00, before Pivot Low TP2 @ 125.50, at Mid-Pivot TP3 @ 119.25, at Major Support TP4 @ 110.75, above Upper Demand TP5 @ 103.85, above Lower Demand BSO @ 101.66, after Price Action drops below TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: As of June 1, 2023, the USDJPY is trading around 139.80. The RSI is overbought, which indicates that the market is due for a correction. The MACD is also starting to turn down, which could be another sign that the trend is about to change. ⚠️Be mindful that the moving averages are all sloping upwards, which is a bullish sign. Overall, the technical analysis for the USDJPY is mixed. There are some bullish signs, however the bearish signs seem to be forging ahead. Traders should be cautious and wait for a clear downtrend to emerge before taking any short trades. Here are some of the key levels to watch for: * SUPPORT: 139.45 ⚠️ For a more aggressive approach, you can place a Market Order to Sell once price opens and closes below Support * RESISTANCE: 140.65 ⚠️ For a more aggressive approach, you can place a Market Order to Buy once price opens and closes above Resistance If the price breaks below the support level, it could signal a change in trend to the downside. If the price breaks above the resistance level, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend. Here are some of the factors that could affect the USDJPY in the near future: * The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 15. * The Japanese government's economic data releases. Traders should keep an eye on these factors and adjust their positions accordingly.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard