News background and trading ideas as for 28/09/2018
On Thursday in the Forex market, basically, were being worked out the results of the FOMC meeting, which were announced on Wednesday evening. As we predicted, the dollar gained. So those of the readers who follow our recommendations should have been guaranteed to earn. But let’s back to the news and their analysis.
Of the macroeconomic statistics, first of all, worth mentioning data on US GDP. This is the final value, and usually, it’s not much different from previous estimates and forecasts of analysts, as we warned actually. So nothing changed this time either - GDP growth in the second quarter in the US was 4.2%. The indicator is just magnificent, which is another reason for dollar buying. Furthermore, pleasantly astonished the data on orders for durable goods in the US, with a forecast of 2.0%, their actual growth was 4.5% per month. The number is imposing. So Thursday can definitely be attributed to the dollar’s asset.
On the Brexit front without changes so is entirely predictable. According to the news, it is worth to note the remark of the President of France, who pointed that if the UK decides to hold another referendum that will cross out the results of the first, the EU will openly meet the UK in its family with open arms then. This comment does not make an effect on the overall picture and our position on the pound - we are looking for points for buying British currency.
It was another lousy news from Italy for the Euro yesterday, where the populist government continued to justify itself in a very negative sense. Namely, it expanded the budget deficit. Populists at the helm of the economy are always wrong. For examples, you do not have to go far - the current situation in the economy of Venezuela. And since Italy is an essential player of the European Union, for the euro this is terrible news indeed.
Friday regarding macroeconomic statistics promises to be an intensive day. First of all, draw attention to the UK GDP figures, consumer inflation in the Eurozone, as well as statistics on personal expenses from the United States.
Our other trading ideas are sustained: we are looking for points for sales of the Russian ruble and the Japanese yen against the dollar. By the way, yesterday the yen paired with the dollar updated the minimum values in 2018. Let's remind, for the second week, we recommend our readers to sell the Japanese yen as a basic trading idea. Motivation - trade wars are reached Japan, resulting in the yen is devalued to reduce the negative consequences of US trade aggression.
Dollar-yen
USDJPY COULD SOON TEST 114.10 LEVELThe US dollar has moved to a fresh 2018 trading high against the Japanese yen currency, as the greenback strengthens across the board. Buyers have now broken above the 113.17 level, triggering the bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern with a two hundred pip upside projection. Given the bullish price-action, the USDJPY pair could soon test towards the 114.10 level.
The USDJPY pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 113.17 level, key resistance is now found at the 113.80 and 114.10 levels.
If the USDJPY pair moves below the 113.17 level, key support is found at the 113.00 and 112.70 levels.
USDJPY INTRADAY BULLISH ABOVE 111.75 LEVELThe US dollar has moved to a fresh monthly trading high against the Japanese yen, as rising equity markets and improving risk-on trading sentiment prompts traders to sell the yen currency. The USDJPY pair remains intraday bullish while trading above the 111.75 level, and is further supported by a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern across the four-hour time frame.
The USDJPY pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 111.75 level, key resistance is found at the 112.10 and 112.80 levels.
If the USDJPY pair moves below the 111.75 level, key support is found at the 111.40 and 111.00 levels.
USDJPY BOOSTED BY US AND CHINA TRADE TALKSThe US dollar has maintained recent bullish momentum against the Japanese yen currency, as news that the US and China may enter into a new round of trade talks has boosted risk-on trading sentiment. USDJPY buyers must now go on to break the 111.75 resistance level, while USDJPY sellers will attempt to push price below the 111.25 support level. Caution is advised as the US Dollar Index is starting to weaken across the board.
The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 111.37 level, key resistance remains at the 111.75 and 112.05 levels.
If the USDJPY pair moves below the 111.37 level, key support is found at the 110.90 and 110.38 levels.
USDJPY Positioning for Sept Hikes=> The USDJPY has remained in bid after holding this uptrend since the first quarter
=> Here we are expecting a move back into the 61.8% retracement towards 111.7x
=> Anything above the 111.83 levels would unlock the highs of 2016/18
=> Dollar hikes in September will be the mover and shaker here and set the tone for the remainder of the year
=> Best of luck to all in positions, we are remaining sidelined here till later in the month
USDJPY FOLLOWING US BOND AND EQUITY MARKETS HIGHERThe US dollar has moved towards the top end of its short-term trading range, as rising US bond and equity markets push the greenback higher. Asian stock markets have hit a fourteen- month trading low on Wednesday, causing the USDJPY pair to pause. USDJPY buyers will attempt to keep price above the 111.75 level to keep the recent bullish momentum alive, while sellers will try to push price below the 111.37 level.
The USDJPY pair is strongly intraday bullish while trading above the 111.75 level, key resistance is found at the 112.05 and 112.20 levels.
If the USDJPY pair moves below the 111.37 level, key support is found at the 110.90 and 110.38 levels.
USDJPY UNDER PRESSURE BELOW 110.90 LEVELThe US dollar has fallen below the 110.90 level against the Japanese yen currency, as falling equity prices are forcing investors into safe-haven asset classes. The intraday sentiment towards the USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 110.90 level, caution is still warranted as the USDJPY pair has recently been unable to find a trending directional.
The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 110.90 level, key support is now found at the 110.10 and 109.65 levels.
If the USDJPY pair moves above the 110.90 level, a correction towards the 111.10 and 111.39 levels cannot be ruled out.
USDJPY TURNS INTRADAY BEARISH BELOW 111.10The US dollar has erased earlier gains against the Japanese yen, as global equity markets turn lower over growing concerns about emerging market economies.
The USDJPY pair has been hurt by growing risk-off trading sentiment, as traders seek the safety of the Japanese yen. Selling pressure is likely to remain on the USDJPY pair while price continues to trade below the 111.10 level.
The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 111.10 level, key support is found at the 110.90 and 110.55 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades moves above the 111.10 level, buyers may once again test towards the 111.39 and 111.80 resistance levels.
USDJPY STRONGLY BULLISH ABOVE 111.39 LEVELThe US dollar has finally broken away from range-bound trading conditions against the Japanese yen currency, with the USDJPY pair hitting 111.80 after a strong technical breakout from a bullish descending triangle pattern. The short-term trend has now turned bullish, and further upside is expected in the USDJPY pair while price continues to trade above the 111.39 support level.
The USDJPY pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 111.39 level, key resistance is found at the 111.80 and 112.05 levels.
If the USDJPY pair moves below the 111.39 level, sellers may test towards the 111.20 and 110.90 support levels.
USDJPY SUPPORTED BY RISING MACDThe US dollar has moved to its highest trading level in two weeks against the Japanese yen, as the greenback starts to recover some of its early-week losses.
The USDJPY pair retains a strong intraday bullish bias while trading above the 111.10 level and is also supported by the MACD indicator, which is steadily rising across the four-hour time frame.
The USDJPY pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 111.10 level, key resistance is now found at the 111.39 and 112.05 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades below the 111.10 level, sellers will likely test towards the 110.55 and 110.10 support levels.
USDJPY WEAKNESS EXPECTED BELOW 110.10The US dollar has fallen to its lowest trading level against the Japanese yen currency since early July after US President Donald Trump criticised the Federal Reserve.
The USDJPY pair retains a strong intraday bearish bias while trading below the 110.10 level.
Sellers will try to target further losses towards the 108.15 level, as it represents the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern with a large downside projection.
The USDJPY pair is intraday bearish while trading below the 110.10 level, key support is now found at the 109.20 and 108.15 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 110.10 level, buyers will likely test towards the 110.30 and 110.55 resistance levels.
USDJPY BEARISH BIAS INTACT BELOW 110.55The US dollar is trading to the downside against the Japanese yen currency on Monday, following a broad-based correction lower in the value of the greenback.
Traders should expect the recent weakness in the USD/JPY pair to continue while price trades below the 110.55 resistance level. A much larger bearish head and shoulders pattern may also be forming across the higher time frames.
The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 110.55 level, key support is found at the 110.10 and 109.00 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.55 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 111.00 and 111.44 resistance levels.
USDJPY TRADES INSIDE BEARISH FLAG PATTERNThe US dollar continues to struggle for direction against the Japanese yen on Friday, as financial markets calm after recent fears about the Turkish economy. The USDJPY pair currently trades within a well-defined bear flag pattern which extends from 110.65 to the 111.25 level. Traders should also note that price is also trading inside a much larger bearish head and shoulders pattern.
The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 110.65 level, key support is now found at the 110.10 and 109.56 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 111.25 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 111.37 and 111.80 resistance levels.
USDJPY TRADES BACK TOWARDS NECKLINE SUPPORTThe US dollar has fallen below the 111.00 level against the Japanese yen on Thursday after US equity markets experienced heavy losses over fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Bearish intraday pressure is placed back on the USDJPY pair while price trades below the 111.00 level. Sellers will look to hold price below the 110.55 level, while buyers need to push price back above the 111.37 level.
The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 111.00 level, key support is found at the 110.55 and 110.10 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 111.00 level, key resistance is located at the 111.37 and 112.05 levels.
usdjpy long idea the 4hr and 1 hr chart lead me to believe that the Dollar is about to rise on the yen. the 4hour chart has shown that usdjpy is in an uptrend for the last month or 2. it has been exhausting to a key level of support, The pair has just broken it's short term resistance, is retesting and now i believe it is about to go to the moon. Blast off.
Long on USDJPY and other USD pairs!Today and throughout the week I am going long on USDJPY and other dollar pairs. Donald trump has been aggressive towards china with the tariff threats so I see an intense week ahead for the bullish USD. Happy trading keep in mind my setups are intraday and the trends can change at any moment. Manage you risk and take educated trades. HAPPY TRADING !
USDJPY HEAD AND SHOULDERS UNDERWAYThe US dollar is falling towards the 110.00 level against the Japanese yen on Monday, after sellers broke the bearish head and shoulders pattern neckline during the Asian session.
The USDJPY pair is coming under pressure as traders move into the safety of the Japanese yen currency, amidst concerns about financial contagion from Turkey. Bearish intraday pressure is likely to remain on the USDJPY pair while price trades below the 110.55 level.
The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 110.55 level, key support is now found at the 109.56 and 109.00 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 110.55 level, buyers could test towards the 110.80 and 111.10 resistance levels.
USDJPY SELLING EXPECTED BELOW 111.00 LEVELThe US dollar has fallen below the key 111.00 level against the Japanese yen, as Sino-US trade tensions continue to escalate on Thursday. Now that the 111.00 to 111.50 range has been broken, sellers are now in control of the price action over the short term.
The 110.55 support level is the key area bears now need to break, while buyers will look to push price back above the 111.37 level.
The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 111.00 level, key support is now found at the 110.55 and 110.00 levels.
If the USDJPY pair trades above the 111.00 level, buyers will likely test towards the 111.37 and 111.50 resistance levels.
USDJPY TESTING BREAKOUT SUPPORTThe US dollar has fallen towards critical support against the Japanese yen, as worsening trade tensions between the US and China help support buying in the yen currency. The USDJPY pair risks erasing its recent gains if price breaks below the key 111.37 level. Financial markets have largely looked past yesterday’s FOMC meeting, as traders price-in two more rate increases from the US central bank this year.
The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 111.37 level, further upside towards the 112.05 and 112.90 still remains possible.
If the USDJPY pair trades below the 111.37 level, sellers will likely test towards the 111.00 and 110.70 support levels.
USDJPY H4 Long Short TermOn the daily time-frame we can clearly see the bullish leg has formed its high and reversed with an evening star formation just shy of the major resistance region. This was followed by heavy bearish pressure on Friday breaking the exponential moving average and weekly support. Continued bearish pressure into today’s session has seen price break through the simple moving average as well, in line with the uptrend break. I expect to see some form of hesitation around this 111.00 region possibly with a retest of the 111.50 region within the next couple of sessions before heading towards the 109.50 level of support. As you can see from the chart a Fibonacci tool aligns this level nicely with the refined retracement level. Price gapped slightly lower with the market open last night and after retesting the 111.50 support turned resistance, melted to meet daily support in line with the long-term exponential moving average. The last H4 candle closed as a doji at this region showing indecision. We await this H4 closure to see another downside rejection and a break back above the 200ema to suggest a new high at a test of 111.50 resistance.
USDJPY H4 Long short term ideaOn the daily time-frame we can clearly see the bullish leg has formed its high and reversed with an evening star formation just shy of the major resistance region. This was followed by heavy bearish pressure on Friday breaking the exponential moving average and weekly support. Continued bearish pressure into today’s session has seen price break through the simple moving average as well, in line with the uptrend break. I expect to see some form of hesitation around this 111.00 region possibly with a retest of the 111.50 region within the next couple of sessions before heading towards the 109.50 level of support. As you can see from the chart a Fibonacci tool aligns this level nicely with the refined retracement level. Price gapped slightly lower with the market open last night and after retesting the 111.50 support turned resistance, melted to meet daily support in line with the long-term exponential moving average. The last H4 candle closed as a doji at this region showing indecision. We await this H4 closure to see another downside rejection and a break back above the 200ema to suggest a new high at a test of 111.50 resistance.