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USDJPY potential break of weekly/monthly Support/DemandHere we have some very simple USDJPY analysis. I have a bearish bias on this pair however due to price sitting at around support currently I have provided a long scenario target. As we can see from the analysis USDJPY has successfully broken below what was a Major Monthly Ascending Trendline. The short term trend is also bearish on this pair. Taking all this into consideration my bias is to the short side in the medium to long term, with targets sat at around the 110.00 level. Price has not sat at 110.00 for nearly 15 months. The 110.00 Level also lines up perfectly with a monthly Fib extension which adds additional confluence. In an ideal world I would like to see a clean break and close at or below 115.50 and for price to then retrace back into 116.00 to 116.30 level before looking for bearish confirmation and initiating a short order. Remember I take an Instituional Swing Investment approach so this scenario might take a few weeks to play out and may not be a suitable for day trading or scalping for that matter. But if it does play out as derscribed above then we could well see price drop a significant amount. These are the kind of trades that interest me. If it plays out as described it also means that this type of trade is based on sound money and risk management because the Risk Reward ratio will be excellent. My only concern with this pair is that we have not had a retest of the monthly ascending trendline. However, as you all know well... Forex isn't quite so simple and the charts dont always give us what we want and can sometimes just continue dropping or rising at their own leisure. In all scenarios, I recommend remembering that the markets can continue to remain irrational longer than our accounts can stay afloat. So trade wisely and I wish you all a happy trading week ahead. If anyone would like to comment or post their own view then please feel free to do so. Many thanks and Best regards! Barry The Forex Trader #BTFXT
Short
by barry_fxtrader
Inverse Head & ShouldersSterling has been on a monster tear after mixed employment data out of the United Kingdom. Averages earnings beat expectations of 2.6 percent, printing a 2.9 percent. However, the U.K. did see a rise in unemployment even as the unemployment rate fell a tenth-percent. Traders are looking to front from any potential talk out of the Bank of England (BoE) that could hint at a potential rate hike. BoE Governor Mark Carney still pressed that a decision to address interest rates would not be made until the end of the year, likely to figure out how financial markets react to an anticipated hike from the Federal Reserve. The yen saw pressure, along with the dollar, as risk assets continued their second day of rallying into tomorrow's FOMC minutes meeting and pressure conference (which tends to be the case). Without a doubt, their will be a good deal of volatility, and it will largely coincide with what Fed Chair Janet Yellen foresees in the near future in regards to the U.S. economy and the potential trajectory of interest rates. As seen in the early '90s, the Fed could raise rates (although, I doubt they would) and the dollar could actually decline. Depending on how the yen reacts, GBPJPY could potentially break out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Price action have jumped up to the neckline on the 4H chart, but there are a few key things to consider: 1. It is always prudent to wait for a close above the neckline, as a false breakout will suck in traders. 2. The neckline also lines up with a well-established supply zone on the intraday charts. If price action meanders too long in the supply zone (blue rectangle), momentum could wane causing the pair to retreat. Conversely, if GBPJPY can close above 187.65 then the pair could attempt 188.55 and 189. If not, a retrace to 186 could be warranted. Side note: considering that the VIX is currently trading within a descending wedge (bullish reversal), it possible that heightened volatility will strengthen the yen. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
6
USDJPY 4H ChartVery brief observation on the USDJPY chart. We have been seeing continued lower lows and lower highs on the USDJPY since early June's high of 125.83, with a key support level being found at 122.45. It would be very interesting to see if longer term, we see a retest of the lower trendline. Fundamentals to bear in mind here could potentially be to ask the extent to which a US rate hike is priced in and possibly the extent to which USDJPY is considered a safe haven, with currency pressures coming from the weak Yen and the possibility of China joining the global currency war (a great article of which can be read here - www.zerohedge.com). Form your own opinions. This is not to be interpreted as investment advice. Trading leveraged products carries a potentially high level of risk. Losses may exceed deposits. www.admiralmarkets.com
by DavidBelleFX
USD/JPY SHORTTHIS PAIR HAS BEEN IN A DOWNTREND RECENTLY AND WITH THE DOLLAR STRUGGLING TO GAIN ANY BULLISH MOMENTUM BACK I THINK ITS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. WE HAVE A THIRD TRENDLINE BOUNCE HERE WHICH IS CONFLUENT WITH THE 61.8 FIB LEVEL AND HAVE FORMED A NICE BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE. I FAVOUR THIS AS A SHORT BACK TO THE LOWS AT 122.00 AND OUR KEY SUPPORT. IF THIS LEVEL GOES PRICE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN TO OUR FIB EXTENSIONS AND TO MEET THE ASCENDING TRENDLINE AROUND 121.00 IM DONE FOR THE WEEK NOW AND LIKELY WONT TAKE THIS TRADE OR ANY OTHER UNTIL NEXT WEEK BUT I WANTED TO SHARE MY INSIGHT AND SEE HOW THIS ANALYSIS PLAYS OUT. HOPE THIS HELPS!! :)
Short
by UnknownUnicorn185710
USDJPY TRIPLE BOTTOM - Bullish ContinuationIt's safe to say it's been an exciting day in the Markets, and to be honest we don't expect that to change much over the next week. As Greece came out of the weekend with absolutely no progress whatsoever, Risk Aversion took a hold within the markets as investors started pumping their money in to "Safe Haven" arenas. One such Safe Haven is the Yen, and it seems this was a favourite. As the Currency Markets re-opened for trading many pairs had gapped considerably. The gap in the USDJPY however enabled price to retest the 50EMA AND the 122.5 Support Level. This may prove important as the week progresses. Additionally this important retest will be the third at said level, thus we have a Triple Bottom! And Right on the 50% Fibonacci Level too! How convenient.... Of course all this is assuming volatility is at "normal levels", which we know it is not... Pretending we don't see the kind of whipsaws and gaps that are most likely (yeah right!) here is the confluence that supports the trade: 1. Triple Bottom 2. Spinning Top Doji 3. 50EMA Bounce 4. 122.50 Support Rejection 5. 50% Fib Level 6. The Trend is your Friend As per previous post, Profit Target 1 provides a good 2:1 Reward Risk and Target 2 a 4.2:1. Reaching Target 2 however may require a bit of a fundamental push also as a VERY strong 20 Year Trend Line lays in the way (). That said the Triple Bottom Set-up might be enough to get this push underway and with the NFP at the end of the week, we could well see Hawkish sentiment break price through... For more please check out forexvader.com and let us know what you think. We're a new blog highlighting technical analysis and other areas of trading. We're always open to suggestions, ideas and even guest writers! Thank you in advance, Team FV.
Long
by ForexVader
USDJPY - Bullish Breakout + ConfluenceFriday closed with an apparent Tweezer Bottom set-up retesting the descending triangle (See - ). A look at the 4hr chart confirms the price pattern breakout and subsequent retest. A successful test of the 50ema would confirm the Bullish momentum and might provide intraday traders an entry point. Sticking with Swing Trading strategies, a stop loss at 123.15 and main profit target at 128.00 provides a near 5:1 Reward:Risk ratio. Confluence includes: Tweezer Bottoms Low Test + Retest of Descending Triangle Keeping with long term trend Triple Bottom
Long
by ForexVader
USDJPY : Close to a breakout confirmationDear workmates ! Last week, we saw a nice correction of the strong dollar uptrend. This correction may be over for now. USD will probably trend up this week particularly against Yen. DXY 1D Timeframe View : We have a strong MACD divergence on 1D timeframe of DXY giving a nice long signal on US Dollar. A falling wedge is forming indicating a nice long term perspective. MA confluence could reverse up and give a potential strong move up. These three elements make me confident that the dollar may trend up this week. USDJPY 1D Timeframe View : We are close to a breakout of a descending triangle on USDJPY. This could lead to a nice uptrend to 122 level then 124. MACD is close to cross the neutral line giving volatility potential. A break of 120.28 level is a good signal to enter long. Best Regards, Serge
Long
by Mirandole
1
USDJPY: Bearish Cypher Pattern @ 119.10Bear Cypher pattern completion @ 119.10. Minimum stops would need to be above 119.35's. Key word minimum. Technically speaking we've been seeing a series of NSH's so one would think that this previous OR would be a good source of resistance. But it's also trading we''re talking about so you never know. Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com "On My Radar: April 20th" ratiotradingmentor.com "trading Recap: Week 16, 2015" tradeempowered.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
27
USDJPY Bearish Gartley completes around 119.70-80 on H4 ChartThis is another chart based on harmonics on USDJPY H4. This is a Gartley which will completes around 119.70.80 area which indicates, this pair may have a fall / reversal from this PRZ (Price Reversal Zone). As par this chart, we may have a short trade on this pair from 119.70-80 area where we can stop at 121 even. We may let this target open to suit our targeted profit or take periodical TP or even we can take profit around 118.20 (50% fib). So lets see how we can trade with our views and ideas. Enjoy the last moment of this weekend.
Short
by IamMuffee
2
USDJPY. Is that a breakout? or fallback?USD/JPY started the last week breaking below a descending triangle, but was not able to extend lower. Instead it continued to consolidate, and surged after the NFP report. In this chat we can see that the market is on the upper Trendline of a triangle which is now in a challenging situation. If this dynamic resistant zone break successfully, it will expose the horizontal trendline resistant which is at 120.80 area as well as the last years high 121.80 (~). At the same chart, we drew 2 EMA which are 55 Days EMA (Red one) and 200 Days EMA (Blue one) which are well below the market. This is also indicating a bullish bias in this currency pair. On the other hand. If the triangle trendline resistant can't be broken, it will fall to nearest support zone to 118.xx or less depending on how BOJ reacts with these sort of challenge this week. In Lower TF: In 4 Hour Time frame, I can see a Bearish Gartley is formatting which may complete around 119.70-80 area. (uploading the image in the comment section). We can hope this market may not get further up than this point. (Which is also a medium level resistant area). Nevertheless, I'm expecting some sort of retracement before the breakout happens to the upper side. We may even see a gap opening (in lower TF).
by IamMuffee
3
CADJPY - POTENTIAL LONG ENTRY FOR RETRACEMENT (Updated)Our previous attempt to go long did not have follow through hence essentially a scratch trade. However is worth looking at again, hence - below is the updated details from the previous chart. In my view most YEN pairs have completed the bullish cycle from moving of the 2011 low. Hence many have formed a top or are in process of doing so. CAD has been on weaker spectrum of major currency group and this is evident from CADJPY. Please see below a monthly chart for big picture view - in which you will note that it has topped at upper end of the potential rising trend channel and has almost completed abc zigzag lower of this high. However, this could not be the end of the correction of the move of the 2011 low and even 2009 low, and on Monthly it looks like it has just started. Nevertheless as noted above the initial zigzag move of the high appear to be nearly complete and could form intermediate low in the region of 91.50 -90.50 area. Summary based on H4 time frame: 1. Has retraced to previous structure low and 88.6% of the move from March 2014 to Oct to major high which confluence with other fib ratio. 2. Wave counts suggest the of the abc zigzag wave C appears near complete with internal 5 waves requirement for wave C and the wave 5 of C also has minor 5 wave counts potentially almost complete with last minor leg to above 90.50 - 91.5 zone. 3.Potential RSI divergence forming suggesting that the current decline could come to end soon. 4. Other YEN pairs are in similar bottom process or might have just done so (see comparison chart) 5. The anticipated move retracement to the upside could be back to 97-98 offering decent opportunity. If you are able to monitor the price action then better entry could be found with much less stop loss. 6. This retracement will offer more clues on likely longer term move. On to watch. As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Long
by DanV
3