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Dollar-yen

JPY: Exiting deflationFundamental bias: Neutral The Japanese yen actually outperformed in this corrective rally – largely because speculators were short JPY already. However, the carry trade is not dead (indeed it may last until summer 2022) and the JPY will be one of the preferred funding vehicles now that funding in dollars carries a health warning. Locally, we see that Japanese core CPI moved back above zero in May – the first positive reading in just over a year. Yet it is a reminder that the Bank of Japan will be the last in the G10 to hike – if at all before the next recession comes along. Look out for June PMIs this week and also whether there has been any pick up in foreign buying of Japanese stocks. We suspect foreigners may want to position for Japanese reopening in 3Q – which could help keep a lid on USD/JPY in an otherwise bid environment.
by thunderpips
1
SELL CADJPYHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price broke its TRENDLINE SUPPORT and also done its RETEST. Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us.
Short
by Ryan_lopes
4
JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safehaven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. From the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continue to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put additionally downside pressure on the JPY. With US Core CPI MM reaching its highest level since the 1980’s and Core CPI YY reaching highest levels since the 1990’s, we’ve finally seen US 10-Year bond yields resume some upward momentum and put downward pressure on the JPY. Rising US yields, alongside the FED that has reassured us that they are not going to be phased by rising inflation means equity markets won’t be concerned that the gravy train will end anytime soon, and we have thus updated our previous weak bearish bias for JPY to bearish. That of course doesn’t mean that all the things markets are worried about have gone away and there will surely be further short-term volatility accompanied with risk off flows, but the med-term bias remains titled lower for JPY.
by thunderpips
USDJPY should go up to 110.18My Marketmiracle advisor generated a LONG input signal for the USDJPY cross By carrying out a graphical analysis of the price action you could actually configure what the advisor indicated, obviously the macroeconomic information already planned for tomorrow on USD and on the night between Monday and Tuesday for JPY could change everything. The big players have never stopped buying USD and the medium players are going back to doing so. You can think of taking LONG positions with target 110,18 This analysis is based on a signal generated by the Marketmiracle advisor, you can view all the signals that the advisor generates in real time on the website marketmiracleadvisor.com is a free service and does not require any registration.
Long
by MarketMiracleAdvisor
1
JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. However, from the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continues to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put downside pressure on the JPY.
by thunderpips
1
JPY: Current Sentiment DriversLatest developments: April 27 – BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged at -0.10% and the 10 year yield target unchanged at 0%. However, the central bank did cut its inflation outlook, believing inflation will remain subdued beyond Governor Kuroda’s term which ends in 2023. March 30 – The unemployment rate for February remained unchanged from prior at 2.9%. March 18 – National CPI for February printed at -0.4% Y/Y for both the headline and core measure, compared to -0.6% for both measures in January. February 14 – Preliminary GDP for Q4 printed at 3.0% Q/Q and 127% Q/Q Annualised, compared to 5.3% and 22.9% prior, respectively. Future Sentiment Shifts: JPY notably strengthened throughout the coronavirus pandemic as markets remained firmly risk off to the benefit of safe havens. Although market sell offs have long since subsided, significant risks still remain as many notable countries continue to fight second waves. The coronavirus global economic outlook will remain heavily influential to JPY, with the currency likely to once again see a renewed bid from the rising number of second waves and their implications for the global economy. Primary Drivers: Risk Tone – With a consistently positive current account and incredibly low interest rates in Japan, JPY has become synonymous with the term safe haven. As the world’s leading creditor nation, times of uncertainty results in repatriation flows, supporting JPY. At the same time, as investors often use JPY as a funding currency due to Japan’s low interest rates, investors are often forced to buy JPY to close their risky positions when market’s shift to risk off, further supporting the currency.
by thunderpips
JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. However, from the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continues to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put downside pressure on the JPY.
by thunderpips
USD JPY BUY (US DOLLAR - JAPANESE YEN) 1. As a safe haven currency, the JPY has a fundamental bearish bias as the market’s overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paving the way for a robust global synchronized economic recovery. 2. As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Thus, as the bias for US10Y tilted higher from the start of the year, the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong and price movements in US10Y continues to dominate price action in the JPY price action. As long as the med term bias for US10Y remains tilted higher, that should put downside pressure on the JPY. 3. After the recent push lower in US10Y, the USDJPY has pushed lower into a key area of technical support, as long as this area holds we would expect medium buyers to defend and step back in from this area as long as US10Y stays supported. 4. The current risk to reward potential is attractive after testing and holding key support at 108.000. Trade risks: Any major negative catalyst which sparks big risk off flows in the market would be the biggest risk for the JPY as a safe haven flows should support the JPY and safe haven flows should also see inflow into bonds (pushing bonds yields lower).
by thunderpips
10
JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y. As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. However, from the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continues to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put downside pressure on the JPY.
by thunderpips
2
JPY: Current Sentiment DriversLatest developments: March 30 – The unemployment rate for February remained unchanged from prior at 2.9%. March 19 – BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.10% and the 10 year yield target unchanged at 0%. However, the central bank did raise the target band for yields, allowing them to fluctuate by +/-25bps from target. March 18 – National CPI for February printed at -0.4% Y/Y for both the headline and core measure, compared to -0.6% for both measures in January. February 14 – Preliminary GDP for Q4 printed at 3.0% Q/Q and 127% Q/Q Annualised, compared to 5.3% and 22.9% prior, respectively. Future Sentiment Shifts: JPY notably strengthened throughout the coronavirus pandemic as markets remained firmly risk off to the benefit of safe havens. Although market sell offs have long since subsided, significant risks still remain as many notable countries continue to fight second waves. The coronavirus global economic outlook will remain heavily influential to JPY, with the currency likely to once again see a renewed bid from the rising number of second waves and their implications for the global economy. Primary Drivers: Risk Tone – With a consistently positive current account and incredibly low interest rates in Japan, JPY has become synonymous with the term safe haven. As the world’s leading creditor nation, times of uncertainty results in repatriation flows, supporting JPY. At the same time, as investors often use JPY as a funding currency due to Japan’s low interest rates, investors are often forced to buy JPY to close their risky positions when market’s shift to risk off, further supporting the currency.
by thunderpips
10
USDJPY: It's All About Breakout USDJPY is trading within a narrow horizontal trading range on 4H. 108.35 is its support 109.3 is its resistance From a current perspective there are two potential scenarios: In case if the price breaks and closes below the underlined support cluster, bearish continuation to lower structure levels will be expected. In case if the price break above a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern, I will expect a pullback at least to 108.85 level. Wait for a trigger and adjust your trading plan accordingly. I am still on a bullish side because in a long run the market trend is sharply bullish, but who knows.
Long
by VasilyTrader
9
JPY: Current Sentiment DriversLatest developments: March 19 – BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.10% and the 10 year yield target unchanged at 0%. However, the central bank did raise the target band for yields, allowing them to fluctuate by +/-25bps from target. March 18 – National CPI for February printed at -0.4% Y/Y for both the headline and core measure, compared to -0.6% for both measures in January. February 14 – Preliminary GDP for Q4 printed at 3.0% Q/Q and 127% Q/Q Annualised, compared to 5.3% and 22.9% prior, respectively. Future Sentiment Shifts: JPY notably strengthened throughout the coronavirus pandemic as markets remained firmly risk off to the benefit of safe havens. Although market sell offs have long since subsided, significant risks still remain as many notable countries continue to fight second waves. The coronavirus global economic outlook will remain heavily influential to JPY, with the currency likely to once again see a renewed bid from the rising number of second waves and their implications for the global economy. Primary Drivers: Risk Tone – With a consistently positive current account and incredibly low interest rates in Japan, JPY has become synonymous with the term safe haven. As the world’s leading creditor nation, times of uncertainty results in repatriation flows, supporting JPY. At the same time, as investors often use JPY as a funding currency due to Japan’s low interest rates, investors are often forced to buy JPY to close their risky positions when market’s shift to risk off, further supporting the currency.
by thunderpips
107.00 Achieved on USD/JPY...Usd/Jpy has made a clean break above 107.00 and breached another technical resistance level in the form of the 100 WMA at 107.24, leaving the Yen with only half round number support at 107.50 to rely on. Marked divergence between the Aussie and Yen, but not necessarily as a direct reflection of broad risk sentiment that traditionally drives the cross one way or the other. Instead, Aud/Usd rebounded from just above 0.7750 to circa 0.7815 largely on the back of a record trade surplus swelled by exports rising twice as fast as the previous month, while imports fell at the same pace. However, the Greenback is grinding higher across the board, with the index looking to retest recent highs above 91.000 between 90.970-91.223 parameters, and the Aussie also faces relatively formidable option expiry interest in the form of 1.5 bn at 0.7820-25 assuming it can clear 1 bn expiries at the 0.7800 strike convincingly alongside a pronounced retreat in copper and other base metals.
Long
by FTUKcom
14
USD/JPY still on route for 107.00...The Buck is trying to stop the rot, but remains some way from break-even and down vs most major counterparts against the backdrop of rising global bond yields on reflation and reopening impulses. US data in the form of initial claims and durable goods gave the Greenback a short-lived reprieve before the DXY resumed its downward spiral to a new cycle low closer to 89.500, at 89.677 in wake of more dovish and cautious Fed commentary from the likes of Bostic, George and Bullard. However, the Yen is underperforming and nudging new y-t-d lows vs the Greenback around 106.29 and the Yen is even weaker, with USD/JPY currently near 106.40 compared to 105.00 at one stage.
Long
by FTUKcom
6
ANALYSIS ON USDJPYHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price has hit its Trendline resistance it will go down till its Trendline Support. Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us.
Long
by Ryan_lopes
ANALYSIS ON USDJPYHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price is inside Ascending Channel and has hit its Resistance. But just below it is a support level. ONLY TAKE A SELL TRADE IF IT BREAKS THE SUPPORT LEVEL. Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us.
by Ryan_lopes
1