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Euro maintaining uptrend due to short-term dollar weakness The short-term dollar weakness is leading to a notable appreciation of the euro. Within the ECB, there are varying opinions regarding the future rate trajectory, but the prevailing sentiment strongly leans towards the necessity of further rate cuts. ING Group is confident that the ECB will cut interest rates by an additional 25bp at its monetary policy meeting this week and will pursue more gradual easing throughout the year. It’s also crucial to closely monitor Germany's 4Q GDP and Spain's January CPI results set to be released this week. Germany's GDP (QoQ) is projected to drop to -0.1% from 0.1% in the previous quarter, while the market anticipates Spain's January CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.8% in the prior month. EURUSD broke below EMA21 and retreated to 1.0430. However, the price is still holding an uptrend, sustaining bullish momentum.If EURUSD breaks above EMA21 and the resistance at 1.0455, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0530. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price could test the support at 1.0400.
by inkicho_exness
DXY - 1H still bearish...While some signals indicate buy opportunities on the dollar index, I remain skeptical. As mentioned in our 4H analysis, the third bullish leg has been completed, and I expect a deeper correction in CAPITALCOM:DXY . In the 1H time frame, we can observe that the second reaction to the support zone is significantly weaker than the first. This could indicate a potential breakdown of the support zone, with the index likely falling below the 107 level. Let’s see how this plays out! Follow for timely updates and expert insights! 🚀
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
Can Turkey's Lira Dance with the Dollar?Turkey stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey, navigating through the complexities of fiscal management and monetary policy to stabilize the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar. The nation has embarked on a strategic pivot towards domestic funding, significantly increasing the issuance of Turkish Government Bonds to manage soaring inflation and debt service costs. This approach, while stabilizing in relative terms, challenges Turkey to balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation, a dance that requires both precision and foresight. The Central Bank of Turkey's decision to cut rates amidst rising inflation paints a picture of calculated risk and strategic optimism. The bank is threading a needle between fostering economic activity and maintaining price stability by targeting a reduction in inflation over the medium term while allowing short-term increases. This policy shift, coupled with a focus on local funding, not only aims to reduce external vulnerabilities but also tests the resilience of Turkey's economy against global economic currents, including the impact of international political changes like the US election. Globally, the economic landscape is fraught with uncertainties, and Turkey's strategy of maintaining a stable credit rating while forecasting a decrease in inflation sets an intriguing stage. The country's ability to attract investment while managing its debt profile, especially in light of global monetary policy shifts by major players like the Federal Reserve and the ECB, will be a testament to its economic stewardship. This narrative invites readers to delve deeper into how Turkey might leverage its economic policies to not only survive but thrive in a fluctuating global market. The enigma of the USD/TRY exchange rate thus becomes a compelling study of economic strategy, where every policy decision is a move in a larger game of financial chess. Turkey's attempt to balance its books while dancing with the dollar challenges conventional economic wisdom and invites observers to ponder: Can a nation truly master its currency's fate in the global marketplace?
Long
by UDIS_View
GBPUSD Approaches Major Zone: Monitoring Dollar for Next MoveAt the moment, we are observing the GBPUSD pair with no clear bias, simply monitoring the price action as it approaches a key zone. From a monthly perspective, we can see that the price has been in a bullish trend for several consecutive months. However, it is now reaching an important level where a potential pullback could occur. The plan is to start monitoring the 4-hour and daily charts, looking for a clear signal that confirms the price's intention to retrace from this area. We are not rushing to take a directional stance until the market provides a more decisive signal. One key factor to watch is the current behavior of the dollar . It is sitting at a strong support zone, which could be affected by upcoming economic data. If this support breaks, we could see strength in GBPUSD , driven by the dollar's weakness. It is crucial to keep an eye on the signals coming from the dollar and the forthcoming economic data, as these could trigger significant volatility and help define the next move in GBPUSD. Given the current state of the dollar, the likelihood of a correction or move in GBPUSD is high, but we need confirmation through price action.
by Wiiso
USD JPY Monthly Prospective Analysis up to 2060I updated my previous idea so that it can be more specific in detail. This is the idea combined with elliott wave theory(I forgot to mention in the previous upload, but, in my chart, the number 2 wave corresponds to the 3 in the elliott and the 3 to the 5. The number 1 wave is the same as the 1 in the elliott). Up to 2027 the trend is down, bounced at around 98 and then going up all the way to reach around 170 (maybe does not reach 200 yen this time, that would be accomplished more than about 50 years later). Hope to live long to see if its correct!
by slowdive430
DXY in 4H timeframehello dear traders U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the potential for a correction over the next month: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: If the Federal Reserve signals a slowdown or pause in its rate hikes, it could put downward pressure on the DXY. Upcoming speeches or FOMC minutes will be key indicators to watch. U.S. Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected economic data, such as lower GDP growth, higher unemployment rates, or declining inflation, could suggest a less aggressive Fed policy, leading to a potential correction in the dollar. Global Economic Trends and Risk Sentiment: Increased risk appetite in global markets could drive investors toward riskier assets (like equities or emerging market currencies), reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical and International Developments: Any easing of geopolitical tensions or positive trade agreements between major economies could diminish the dollar’s safe-haven appeal and contribute to a potential correction. Correlated Markets like Gold and Oil: Rising prices in gold or oil often correlate with a weaker dollar. If these assets strengthen, it could be a sign of dollar weakness. In summary, weaker U.S. data or dovish signals from the Fed, combined with a more favorable global economic environment, could increase the likelihood of a DXY correction over the next month.
TVC:DXYShort
by mehdi_kb
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 22, 2025 GBPUSDThe Pound saw mixed results from UK labour data, but the UK's own Labour Department is taking the figures as a grain of salt. On the US side, US President Donald Trump brushed aside his campaign promises of sweeping tariffs against all US trading partners, focusing on new, more subtle tariff threats against US North American trading partners Canada and Mexico. Markets shuddered as investors tried to keep up with the new headline generator - President Trump. Investors were betting big that the newly minted US president would not impose tariffs on day one, as he has long threatened to do, but a new round of renewed trade rhetoric has market sentiment fluctuating in the mid-range. With only little significant data scheduled for Wednesday, pairs traders will focus on the headlines likely to be released during US trading hours. Pound traders will be keeping an eye on Friday's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from S&P Global, which is due out on both sides of the Atlantic. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2280, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Can the Yuan Dance to a New Tune?In the intricate ballet of global finance, the Chinese yuan performs a delicate maneuver. As Donald Trump's presidency introduces new variables with potential tariff hikes, the yuan faces depreciation pressures against a strengthening U.S. dollar. This dynamic challenges Beijing's economic strategists, who must balance the benefits of a weaker currency for exports against the risks of domestic economic instability and inflation. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is navigating this complex scenario with a focus on maintaining currency stability rather than aggressively stimulating growth through monetary policy easing. This cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage expectations and market reactions in an era where geopolitical shifts could dictate economic outcomes. The PBOC's recent moves, like suspending bond purchases and issuing warnings against speculative trades, illustrate a proactive stance in controlling the yuan's descent, aiming for an orderly adjustment rather than a chaotic fall. This situation provokes thought on the resilience and adaptability of China's economic framework. How will Beijing reconcile its growth ambitions with the currency's stability, especially under the looming shadow of U.S. trade policies? The interplay between these two economic giants will shape their bilateral relations and influence global trade patterns, investment flows, and perhaps even the future of monetary policy worldwide. As we watch this economic dance unfold, one must ponder the implications for international markets and the strategic responses from other global players.
Long
by UDIS_View