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Will the Dollar Retrace After Retail Sales Data?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near a one-year high ahead of today’s Oct Retail Sales report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase, down from Sep's 0.4%. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no urgency to lower rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation. - According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a 0.25% rate cut next month have dropped to 62.4% from 82.5% a day ago. Technical theme: - The market tests the one-year high area around 107.00, confluence with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension. The index is stretched to the upside and above both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversion. - If DXY cannot remain above 106.35, the index may retrace further to retest 105.43. - On the contrary, if DXY extends its gain above 107.00, the index may retest 107.78, confluence with the 100% Fibonacci Extension. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
U.S.Dollar Chart Update !The US dollar recently broke above its descending triangle pattern and is testing a key horizontal supply zone. While it’s challenging this resistance, a potential pullback could still occur. The Ichimoku Cloud beneath provides strong support, reinforcing the bullish structure. Given the dollar's inverse correlation with crypto, any decisive move could significantly impact broader market trends. Stay alert to shifts in momentum as they may signal changes in the crypto landscape. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and is not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed. You can DM us for information on any other coin. @Peter_CSAdmin
TVC:DXY
by CryptoSanders9563
Is the Trump Trade Fading? The sugar high from Trump’s victory may be wearing off in a few areas. Tesla, once a post-election favorite after Elon Musk’s support of Trump’s campaign, has now reversed direction. Reports suggest that Republicans will end the $7,500 EV tax credit—a move that’s sent Rivian tumbling 9%, while Tesla is down nearly 4%. Shares of Trump Media & Technology slid 8% today. But being a meme stock, analysis here won't tell us much. In a notable signal, the CFO and two other insiders sold over $16 million of stock in the week following the election. Yet, the U.S. dollar remains resilient, possibly buoyed by the Cabinet picks coming out of the Trump administration. Marco Rubio’s nomination as Secretary of State suggests a tough stance on China. Known for his anti-communist positions and support for Hong Kong’s democracy movement, Rubio has advocated for tighter export controls on U.S. technology and visa sanctions against Chinese officials, hinting at a policy that may go well beyond tariffs.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Yen VS Dollar; Trade with cautionGlobal financial markets are bracing for a possible Fed rate cut. Accordingly, forex markets have priced in the anticipated rate cut. September CPI data indicated US inflation is on course towards 2%; seems like the prevailing interest rates are working. Blackrock thinks the Fed will be cautious with a 25-bps rate cut as opposed to a 50-bps rate cut. There is also the remote possibility that the Fed will be cautious and maintain the rates. Ostensibly, it seems the markets have aggressively priced in a rate cut that has seen the dollar weaken against major currencies. Looking at cross Yen pairs, bearish momentum is dominant in Q3 OF 2024. However, we have seen price imbalance and price inefficiency across all Yen pairs that must be corrected. For this imbalance to be corrected, we require the US Dollar to rise. All factors held constant, retaining rates or cutting rates lesser than expected will spook the markets and we could see the dollar strengthen against the Yen and other major global currencies. Turning to the US Dollar index, we see a potential for further weakening before the index rises targeting 105 to 110 price levels.
by morrisgitau
The Impact of Emerging Markets on the Dollar amidst Looming TradThe recent shift in US political landscape has ignited a wave of uncertainty across global markets. A potential escalation of trade tensions with China and other key economies could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for the US dollar and emerging market currencies. The Dollar's Uncertain Future The US dollar, long considered a safe-haven asset, faces a crossroads. While a more protectionist stance could initially bolster the dollar's appeal, it could also trigger a chain reaction of economic consequences. Increased tariffs and trade barriers could lead to higher inflation, which could erode the dollar's purchasing power. Moreover, if the US economy weakens as a result of trade disputes, the dollar's demand as a safe-haven currency could diminish. Emerging Markets in the Crossfire Emerging market economies, which have often relied on exports to fuel their growth, are particularly vulnerable to escalating trade tensions. A trade war could disrupt global supply chains, increase the cost of imported goods, and reduce demand for emerging market exports. This could lead to currency devaluation, higher inflation, and slower economic growth. Currency Pegs Under Pressure Countries that peg their currencies to the US dollar, such as Hong Kong and some Middle Eastern nations, could face significant challenges. If the dollar weakens or strengthens significantly, it could put pressure on these currency pegs, forcing central banks to intervene to maintain the exchange rate. This could deplete foreign exchange reserves and limit monetary policy flexibility. The Renminbi's Rising Influence China's renminbi could emerge as a potential beneficiary of a weakened US dollar. As China continues to expand its economic influence and promote the internationalization of its currency, it could become a more attractive alternative to the dollar for global trade and investment. However, a trade war with the US could also negatively impact the renminbi, as it could lead to reduced demand for Chinese exports and capital flight. Navigating the Uncharted Waters To mitigate the risks associated with a potential trade war, emerging market economies may need to adopt a combination of strategies. These could include diversifying export markets, promoting domestic consumption, and strengthening financial institutions. Additionally, central banks may need to adjust monetary policy to stabilize currencies and manage inflation. In conclusion, the potential for increased trade tensions between the US and China could have significant implications for the global economy, the US dollar, and emerging market currencies. While the full impact of these developments remains uncertain, it is clear that businesses, investors, and policymakers around the world will need to closely monitor the situation and adapt their strategies accordingly.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
gold 5 waves complete now abc correction in progress🔸Hello guys, today let's review 6hour price chart for gold. The 5 wave bullish impulse is complete now we are entering ABC correction. 🔸Wave1 was 2335/2472, Wave2 2472/2372, Wave3 2371/2653, Wave4 2653/2605, Wave5 2605/2770, now ABC correction, currently A in progress 2770/2525. 🔸Recommended strategy for gold traders: higher risk bounce play once A completes and transitions into B bounce, BUY/HOLD 2525 exit at 2678. Lower risk sell side setup: B completes near 2678 short sell into bounce exit at 2383 once C completes into liquidity order block zone. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
14
EURUSD strategic outlook: BEARS will target 1.0500🔸Hello guys, today let's review H8 price chart for eurusd. Previously recommended buying low near 1.0650, TP hit +400 pips, congrats if you followed. you can review original setup via link below. 🔸Range lows defined at 0650 , range highs set at 1050/1100. This is the active trading range for EURUSD since early 2023 it's well-defined and it's very unlikely that price will exit this range any time soon (not until 2026). 🔸Currently we got a strong rejection near range highs at 1100 and this resistance is too strong for the bulls to break atm, price was already rejected multiple times from this level. there are no bullish catalysts in euro zone to break 1.10/1.11 S/R. 🔸Recommended strategy position traders: bears focus on short selling rips/rallies, targeting range lows at 0500/0550. Bears will take over from here, so there is no valid setup for bulls on buy side. Keep in mind that this is a swing trade setup and provided low volatiliy in EURUSD it may take a while to hit the targets (multiple weeks). 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
30
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
Will USDCHF reverse its course due to the new SNB's prospect?Macro theme: - Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.6% in Oct—the lowest in over three years—raising expectations that the SNB may opt for a more significant 0.5% rate cut in Dec to keep inflation within its 0-2% target range. - Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% but issued a slightly more hawkish statement. Technical theme: - USDCHF broke the descending channel after testing both EMAs, which just golden crossed each other, indicating a bullish momentum exists. - USDCHF may retest the broken descending trendline, confluence with the support level around 0.8693-0.8700 before resuming its upward movement to retest 0.8825. - On the contrary, a closing below 08626 may prompt a deeper correction to a nearby support around 0.8550. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 105.42 1st Support: 104.65 1st Resistance: 106.13 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets