Dollar
EURUSD - gap is filled, what’s next? Buys? Sells?Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels .
Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame .
Now the main focus everyone has is the “ GAP ”. Yes the gap has been filled but sellers who tried to take advantage of it, have experienced drawdown today. EURUSD still has a chance to dig deeper into that gap potentially giving us better entries OR breaking to the upside. So here are the possible scenarios on EURUSD we have pre-planned for the following days .
Scenario 1: BUYS at the break of 1.04334
- We broke above 1.04334.
With the break of this level we can expect a possible move towards the upside. Even though we are extremely bearish on EURUSD for quite some time, short-term TVC:DXY weakness can cause the pair to see possible higher levels.
Scenario 2: SELLS
- We dug deeper into the “gap price” or we stayed below roughly 1.03462.
With sells we have several possible entries. We can expect a deeper dig to the upside potentially giving us better entries. On the other hand, if we don’t experience that, and stay below 1.03462 we can expect more sells to come.
KEY NOTES
- EURUSD is overall still bearish.
- DXY (USD) experiencing short-term bears.
- Breaking above 1.04334 would result in more upside.
- Staying below the gap fill, would result in sells.
- Possible deeper digs to the upside before the sell off.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
DXY Bullish Breakout – USD Strengthening Towards 120+?📊 DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Monthly Chart Analysis 🚀
📈 Breakout in Progress:
The chart shows a breakout from a horizontal resistance zone (previous highs). This signals bullish momentum.
📊 Trend & Structure:
Higher Lows & Higher Highs indicate an uptrend.
Price has been moving within an ascending channel for years.
📉 EMA 200 Support:
The 200-month EMA (95.63) is well below the current price, acting as a strong long-term support level.
🔮 Future Projection:
A potential pullback to confirm support, followed by a strong bullish move toward 120-125 levels.
Chart Projection Suggests: 🚀 Upside continuation if support holds.
🔥 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support: 104-108 (Breakout retest zone)
🎯 Target: 116-124 (Upper trendline)
💡 Conclusion: Bullish bias remains strong. If DXY holds above 108, the dollar could gain more strength in 2025. 🚀📊
GOLD Setting up for a nice run!Now that we are in a new week and new month it looks like its setting up for a big move. Just have to wait for the killzones for a solid entry. I just need to see it fill in some gaps. Waiting for the Asian range but it looks like it might be bearish until the London session. For London we could see a sweep and then aggressive push to go bullish. We just have to wait and see.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Does The Market OVERREACT?
It looks like Dollar Index is preparing for a retracement
after a very bullish market opening.
As a clear sign of strength of the sellers, I see
a head and shoulders pattern on an hourly
and a breakout of its neckline.
The market may drop at least to 108.6
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Fundamental Market Analysis for february 3, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD was subjected to heavy selling on Monday and fell towards 1.0200 early in the Asian session. Spot prices have returned to more than two-year lows reached in January and look set to continue their multi-month downtrend.
The US Dollar (USD) is rising across the board in response to US President Donald Trump's decision over the weekend to impose 25 per cent duties against Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10 per cent against China. This marks the start of a new global trade war and has curbed investor appetite for risky assets. The flow of anti-risk sentiment is putting good pressure on the safe-haven quid, which is becoming a key factor putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, on Friday evening, Trump announced that he will impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This comes amid the European Central Bank's (ECB) stance, which continues to undermine the common currency. As expected, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) last Thursday and left the door open for further rate cuts before the end of this year.
This is a significant divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) pause, which favours dollar bulls and supports the prospects for further EUR/USD declines. Meanwhile, the recent sharp pullback in US Treasury yields acts as a headwind for the quid and may provide some support to spot prices. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
DXY Dive Incoming? Watch the Liquidity Zones!From the higher timeframe perspective, DXY is currently hovering within a key monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), marked in red. This zone serves as a critical point of interest and could dictate the next directional bias for the dollar.
Key Observations:
Current FVG Zone:
-Price is consolidating within the monthly FVG. A close below this zone would provide stronger confirmation of a bearish move targeting lower liquidity levels.
Bearish Bias:
-The recent price action indicates weakness as sellside liquidity (SSL) is beginning to show signs of attraction.
-The presence of significant sellside liquidity targets below, including:
-105.411 (Weekly SSL - Sweep)
-103.370 (Weekly SSL - Next Zone)
-100.215 (Major Daily SSL Zone)
Messy Market Conditions:
-Due to fluctuating macroeconomic factors, including USD news events, we may observe temporary rallies or retracements. However, these are likely to form lower highs before continuing the descent.
Confirmation Levels:
-Bearish Confirmation: A daily or weekly close below the monthly FVG would solidify the bearish case, signaling that sellside liquidity at 105.411 and lower levels are likely next.
-Bullish Risk: If the current FVG holds as support and price pushes higher, we could see an attempt to retest higher zones (e.g., 109.535) before resuming downside momentum.
Conclusion:
The expectation is for DXY to drop towards sellside liquidity levels at 105.411, 103.370, and potentially as low as 100.215. However, traders should await a clean confirmation (such as a close below the monthly FVG) to validate the move.
DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade safely amidst potential market volatility!
Let me know if you'd like any refinements!
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 31, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) underwent heavy selling during the Asian session on Tuesday and pulled back from the six-week high reached the previous day against its US counterpart. Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which in turn undermines the Japanese yen. In addition, a good rebound in US Treasury bond yields was another factor pushing flows away from the low-yielding yen. The recovery of the US dollar is adding to the pressure on the yen, reducing its attractiveness.
Nevertheless, a significant decline in the yen seems unlikely amid bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. On the contrary, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, which in turn could serve as a headwind for US bond yields, the dollar and the currency pair.
Investors continue to monitor developments, including upcoming speeches by Fed and BoJ officials, as well as the publication of key economic indicators that could affect the future dynamics of USD/JPY.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
GOLD GAVE US CHOP...Now will it Move?We got nothing but chop pending news yesterday. Now that new is out the way...we are more likely to get a solid move. Just waiting for the killzone to make a decision on a direction. We need a nice pull back for a solid pull run so I will wait for it to pull outside of value.
DXY - Waiting Guidance from FOMCDollar is currently sitting very close to Bearish trendline like EURUSD and it needs a catalyst to break above or reject from here. With FOMC expected to keep rates unchanged and remain Hawkish, there's a high probability that this will break up for a Bullish move. However nothing can be confirmed until news comes. Therefore please remain cautious when trading around News.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Symmetrical Triangle Analysis: Next move?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4H Chart Analysis
Key Observations:
1. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern:
The chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, characterized by converging trendlines.
This pattern typically signals a breakout, but the direction (up or down) depends on market momentum.
2. Current Price Action:
BTC is trading around $102,979.98 at the time of the chart.
It is above the 200 EMA ($100,003.64), indicating bullish strength.
The price recently bounced off support and is moving towards resistance.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Around $97,785.55 (blue line).
Resistance: Around $109,636.60 (blue line).
4. Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
If BTC breaks above the upper trendline, it may rally towards $109,636.60 or higher.
A confirmed breakout could push BTC to $112,500+.
Bearish Breakdown:
If BTC rejects at resistance and breaks downward, it could retest the $100,000 level or lower.
A breakdown could target $97,785.55 or even $95,000.
Final Thoughts:
Watch for a breakout or breakdown from the triangle pattern.
Volume is crucial—a high-volume breakout confirms strength, while low volume can indicate a fakeout.
If BTC stays above $100,000 (200 EMA support), the bullish bias remains intact.
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 28, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) weakened during the Asian session on Tuesday, moving away from the six-week high recorded earlier against the US dollar (USD). The weakening was driven by investor concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policy. Tougher rhetoric on trade tariffs, in particular statements about new duties, undermined the yen's position as a defensive asset. An additional pressure factor was the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which attracted capital flows into dollar assets.
Amid the recovery of the US dollar, which reached the lowest level since 18 December, the USD/JPY pair approached 155.00. Despite the current weakness of the yen, analysts believe that its significant decline is unlikely. This is due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, supporting the national currency.
On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), according to forecasts, may cut interest rates twice in 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar. A rate cut could reduce the attractiveness of US assets and hamper further growth of the USD/JPY pair.
Investors will closely follow macroeconomic data and speeches of central bankers. USD/JPY is expected to remain in the range of 154.50-155.50, but any change of rhetoric from the Fed or BoJ can significantly affect the market dynamics.
Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 155.00, trading mainly with Sell orders