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Will ongoing risk-on theme keep dampening the US dollar further?Macro theme: - On Tue, PBoC surprised investors with a new set of support measures that positively impact risky assets. This unexpected move has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the markets. -In contrast, the latest data from the US revealed a surprising decline in consumer confidence, which fell to 98.7 this month from a revised 105.6 in Aug. This marked the most significant drop since Aug 2021, sparking concerns about the health of the US economy. - As a result, market expectations for another 0.5% rate cut by the Fed at its Nov meeting have increased significantly. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a move jumped to 60.7% from 53% just a day earlier. This shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance has further weakened the US dollar as investors become more risk-tolerant. Technical theme: - On the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its support area of 100.55-100.60 and confirmed its downward movement. The price is trading below both EMAs by a fair distance, and there is a risk of a potential mean reversion if it tests a strong psychological level, such as 100.00, ahead. - If DXY extends its decline, it may retest and find psychological support around 100.00, confluence with its descending channel's lower bound.  - Meanwhile, DXY may recover to fill its gap and retest the broken area around 100.55-100.60 before resuming its downward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2
EURUSDEURUSD . Potential long opportunity. This is an adaptive analysis! Our idea for EURUSD is a long after the price has fallen to our PBA (Pull Back Area). With DXY showing weakness we do believe that EURUSD could rise to our target 1.11674 . Our SL is set at 1.10751 . In second scenario , we could see EURUSD make a deeper pullback down to 1.10500 which could be the second entry . Targets remain the same while SL would sit around 1.10150 . PARAMETERS - Entry: 1.11057 - SL: 1.10751 - TP1: 1.11363 - TP 2: 1.11674 KEY NOTES - EURUSD has fallen to our PBA. - Adaptive analysis. - DXY showing weakness. - EURUSD may make a deeper pullback to 1.10500. Happy trading! FxPocket
Long
by FxPocket
DXY Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Suggests Upside PotentialDXY Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Suggests Upside Potential The Dollar Index (DXY) recently bottomed following an extended period of consolidation, marking the end of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern on the chart. This phase of accumulation indicates that the dollar has likely built enough momentum for a bullish move. In the near term, I expect DXY to rise toward 101.6, followed by further strength taking it to 105.55 by the end of the year. As the accumulation phase transitions into a markup phase, the dollar is set for a period of appreciation.
TVC:DXYLong
by Hexacapital
Dollar Index SellAs dollar index had expierenced waterfall during new on US session and it has stopped over its weekly support and is also forming a falling wedge pattern which is a Bearish Continuation pattern now and it has also completed ABCD waves and going to complete its last E wave if everything goes inline after E Waves it will break down its weekly to daily Support and will start falling again after a reset market sentiment is also indicating that DXY will continue falling also the confluence is price is trading in down trend on daily to H4 to H1 TF and bullish in weekly and monthly TF according to my anylisis DXY will keep falling till its weekly base acting as support on 98.00
TVC:DXYShort
by Wakeel_Saab
DXY (Dollar) Sells from 101.700For the DXY, my outlook is that the price will retrace back up to 101.700 before continuing its bearish trend with another drop. Since that point of interest (POI) is still far from the current price, I’ll be looking for a potential buy setup around the 100.800 area, which aligns with a 3-hour demand zone. If the price respects this zone, it could generate enough momentum for the pullback. We’re already seeing a strong reaction from the 9-hour demand zone I marked last week, supporting this scenario. A further decline in the dollar will serve as a confluence for bullish moves in my other pairs. Have a great trading week, everyone!
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
Must-Watch Events in U.S. Politics This Week With six weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 5 points, 49% to 44%, according to a new NBC poll. Harris' favorability has surged 16 points since July, the largest increase for any candidate since George W. Bush after 9/11. Harris is set to unveil new economic proposals on Thursday, expanding her vision for an “opportunity economy.” Meanwhile, Trump is now urging early and mail-in voting, despite previously blaming it for election fraud. As for a second debate, Harris has accepted an invitation for October 23, but Trump seems reluctant after their first encounter. Additionally, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a stopgap funding bill to prevent a government shutdown before the Sept. 30 deadline, with a vote expected on Wednesday.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Can DXY Stabilize at 99.50-100 Area Despite FED 50bp Cut? Dollar Index – DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse is in play, but with recent touch of a new swing low, DXY is possibly in fifth wave, so be aware of some support in weeks ahead. But closer look shows that there is still some room left for 99.50-100 area, but if this will occur and structure a wedge shape, then we should be aware of reversals, and new correction. So as said, the price could still see a bit more weakness into the 5th wave to fully complete this ending diagonal, but then dollar can turn for a new correction, considering that recent dollar weakness has been mainly driven by these rate cut expectations, so now that this 50bp cut has been done, the dollar may stabilize due to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. However, any rally will be temporary, as I think that dollar has room for much more weakness, bu ideally after another a-b-c recovery. 101.80 -102 is strong resistance. GH
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch.USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch (20/09/2024) As we analyze the USD/JPY pair on 20/09/2024, the outlook appears to be slightly bullish for this week and next. Several key drivers are pushing the U.S. dollar higher against the Japanese yen, creating an attractive opportunity for traders. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental factors behind this forecast and highlight the elements influencing USD/JPY price action in the coming days. 1. US Dollar Strength Bolsters USD/JPY The strength of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor contributing to the bullish bias in USD/JPY. With the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, the greenback remains in demand. Fed officials have recently emphasized their concerns about persistent inflation, leading markets to believe that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer than previously expected. This hawkish monetary stance, coupled with strong economic data, has made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. As a result, USD/JPY has been moving higher, with the strong dollar likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the pair. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY forecast, US dollar strength, Federal Reserve policy, interest rate hike, USD/JPY price action. 2. Dovish Bank of Japan Keeps the Yen Weak On the other side of the equation, the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown no signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term, despite global inflationary trends. Japan’s central bank continues to prioritize economic support, maintaining low interest rates while avoiding any drastic policy shifts. This dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This is a major driver of USD/JPY’s bullish outlook, as investors gravitate towards the higher-yielding U.S. dollar over the lower-yielding yen. Key SEO keywords: Bank of Japan policy, Japanese yen weakness, dovish BoJ, USD/JPY interest rate differential, yen depreciation. 3. Interest Rate Differentials Favor USD/JPY Upside One of the most important factors pushing USD/JPY higher is the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive, the yield on Japanese government bonds remains low due to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance. This gap in yields makes the U.S. dollar more appealing for investors seeking better returns. The widening interest rate gap is a key bullish signal for USD/JPY, as capital continues to flow into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone, and the BoJ remains accommodative, this dynamic will likely support the bullish bias for USD/JPY. Key SEO keywords: Interest rate differentials, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese bond yields, USD/JPY bullish outlook, capital flows into USD. 4. Japanese Economic Weakness Adding Pressure on the Yen Another factor supporting the bullish bias for USD/JPY is the ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy. Japan has struggled with slow economic growth and weak inflation, further justifying the BoJ’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Domestic consumption remains low, and Japan’s economic recovery has been uneven. As a result, the Japanese yen continues to face downside pressure, while the U.S. dollar benefits from stronger economic fundamentals. This divergence between the U.S. and Japanese economies adds to the case for a stronger USD/JPY in the coming weeks. Key SEO keywords: Japanese economic weakness, low inflation in Japan, weak yen, Bank of Japan policy, USD/JPY forecast. 5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is showing signs of further upside. The pair has been testing key resistance levels, and if these levels are broken, we could see a more significant bullish move. The recent price action has shown strength, with USD/JPY consistently finding support at higher lows. Traders should watch for a potential breakout above these resistance zones, as it could signal further gains for USD/JPY. With strong fundamentals supporting the pair, the technical outlook aligns with the overall bullish bias. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY technical analysis, key resistance levels, USD/JPY price action, bullish trend, support and resistance. Conclusion: Bullish Bias Expected for USD/JPY In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors support a slightly bullish bias for USD/JPY over the next couple of weeks. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, favorable interest rate differentials, and Japan’s economic challenges all point towards further upside potential for USD/JPY. Traders and investors should closely monitor these key drivers as they make their trading decisions. As always, staying updated on central bank policies, economic data, and technical signals will be crucial in navigating the USD/JPY price action during this period. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY forecast, bullish bias, USD/JPY key drivers, US dollar strength, Bank of Japan policy, interest rate differential, USD/JPY technical analysis.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) DXY is sitting at an important KL (Key Level) at around 100.600 . On a bigger timeframe we are still bullish on dollar. Several factors support Dollar strength: The Dollar is expected to maintain its strength for some time. Still, some risks could lead to further appreciation, including Euro area concerns, changes in Chinese currency policy, and how markets interpret US growth prospects. Interest rates: With yesterday’s interest rate decisions (50BPS) we saw DXY spike down . We do have to keep in mind if interest rate cuts continue, we might turn bearish on DXY, resulting in less demand in U.S. Dollar and more demand in stocks and gold . If however, we continue to the upside with DXY, it will confirm our XAUUSD sells that we have given the analysis for. Keep in mind: The aim of raising of the Fed's rates is to adjust the inflation level to a target value. Interest rate hike may have a positive effect on dollar quotes, while lowering can be seen as negative for the US dollar. Happy trading! FxPocket
TVC:DXYLong
by FxPocket
DXY: Some more downside is expected. Is it a buy after?The U.S. Dollar Index is on strong bearish levels on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.538, MACD = -0.480, ADX = 39.006) as it is extending the Channel Down with a rejection today exactly on its top. The very same Channel Down was seen last October-December (2023) and declined by -6.25% before recovering. The buy signal was a DB (double bottom) on the 1D RSI. Consequently we will remain bearish on DXY (TP = 99.550) and only buy after we get a clear rebound (around -6.25%) and a DB on the RSI. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYShort
by InvestingScope