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Dollar

A Brief 57-Year History of the DollarThe year 1971, when the Bretton Woods system ended, marked a period where the dollar's value followed a volatile trajectory of ups and downs—until 2008. The global financial crisis was another turning point, and since then, the dollar has been steadily appreciating. This trend is expected to continue, at least until another significant pivot point emerges. Will such a critical turning point occur during Trump’s second term? That remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: the dollar seems poised to keep gaining value.
INDEX:DXYLong
by The_Quantastic
1
NASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic DataNASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic Data The NASDAQ index is finding strong support from favorable U.S. economic data and a stable macroeconomic outlook, particularly benefiting from the resilience of technology and growth sectors. Amid signs of moderating inflation and potential easing by the Federal Reserve, **seasonal trends strongly favor the NASDAQ, as December is historically a strong month for equities, especially tech-heavy indices. --- Key Economic Drivers Supporting the NASDAQ 1. ISM Manufacturing PMI – Signs of Stabilization - The **ISM Manufacturing PMI** for November rose to **48.4**, exceeding expectations, though still signaling contraction. This reflects progress toward stabilization in the U.S. manufacturing sector. - Slower input cost inflation and renewed job creation are positive signs for the broader economy, indirectly supporting growth-oriented sectors such as technology. 2. Construction Spending Growth - Construction spending** increased by **0.4% in October, showcasing resilience in the housing and infrastructure sectors. This strength in spending highlights consumer and government investment, which can indirectly benefit tech companies involved in digital infrastructure and smart technologies. 3. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – Easing Inflationary Pressures - The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid** index dropped to **50.3**, significantly below the forecast of **55.2**. This is a positive development for inflation control, signaling moderating cost pressures in the manufacturing sector. - Implications: - Positive for equities: Lower inflation reduces the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, a scenario that benefits rate-sensitive growth stocks. - Stable monetary outlook: A gradual shift toward easing monetary policy supports technology stocks reliant on lower borrowing costs. 4. Fed Officials’ Support for Gradual Easing - Recent Fed commentary suggests a balanced approach to monetary policy: - **Christopher Waller** emphasized the possibility of a rate cut in December, citing a balanced labor market and controlled inflation progress. - **John Williams** forecasted GDP growth of **2.5% in 2024** while reiterating that inflation is expected to return to the 2% target. This fosters confidence in growth-oriented sectors like technology. - A potential rate cut would be particularly favorable for the NASDAQ, as tech companies are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. 5. Consumer and Business Optimism - The **S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI** indicated improving confidence and renewed job creation despite lingering challenges such as reduced international demand. This optimism supports steady sentiment for growth sectors. --- Seasonality and Market Sentiment Seasonality is a critical tailwind for the NASDAQ at this time. December is traditionally a strong month for the tech-heavy index, supported by holiday-driven consumer spending, portfolio rebalancing, and end-of-year tax strategies. The current **Fear & Greed Index**, standing at **64**, indicates a **greed-driven sentiment**, which typically aligns with upward momentum, especially for high-growth sectors. --- NASDAQ Outlook The NASDAQ is well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable conditions: - Easing inflationary pressures reduce the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, which is particularly supportive for rate-sensitive growth stocks. - Strong GDP growth projections and a resilient labor market provide a stable foundation for tech earnings and innovation-driven sectors. - Seasonal trends, combined with improving macroeconomic sentiment, create additional momentum for the NASDAQ as the year-end approaches. While global uncertainties and international demand challenges remain, the NASDAQ's long-term prospects remain **bullish**. Seasonal strength, positive economic data, and the potential for a more accommodative Fed policy stance are all aligning to favor continued gains for the index.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
EUR/USD – Weak Start to the WeekEUR/USD – Weak Start to the Week The EUR/USD pair began the week with declines, driven by macroeconomic data releases and political tensions within the eurozone. --- Macroeconomic Data Impact On Monday, the final reading of the **HCOB Manufacturing PMI** for the eurozone in November was released, showing a figure of **45.2**, in line with expectations. This continues to signal weakness in the industrial sector, contributing to euro depreciation. --- Political Issues in France Political turbulence in France further weighed on the euro. Key developments included: - Budget Dispute: Prime Minister Michel Barnier faced potential no-confidence votes as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, threatened to oppose the government’s budget proposal. - Concessions: The French government dropped plans to reduce medication reimbursements to secure RN support. - Market Reaction: French bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield briefly surpassing Greece’s. The CAC 40 stock index fell 1.1% in early trading. --- ECB Comments Statements from European Central Bank members also hinted at potential monetary easing: - Olli Rehn** and **Yannis Stournaras suggested further rate cuts are likely in December due to persistent inflation concerns. - Martin Kazaks mentioned the possibility of discussing larger rate cuts, though he acknowledged significant uncertainty. --- Seasonality and EUR/USD Historically, December has been a favorable month for the euro against the dollar, driven by reduced market liquidity and year-end position adjustments. However, under the current market conditions, with weak eurozone data and robust U.S. performance, seasonality may not be sufficient to reverse the prevailing bearish trend for EUR/USD. --- USD Stability The U.S. dollar remains relatively stable, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and comments from Federal Reserve officials. - Fed Officials’ Remarks : - John Williams: The NY Fed President noted that monetary policy remains restrictive and emphasized data dependence. He expects inflation to gradually decline to 2% and forecasts U.S. GDP growth of around 2.5% in 2024. - Christopher Waller: The Fed Governor expressed support for a December rate cut, citing a balanced labor market and concerns about inflation stagnating above 2%. - Raphael Bostic: The Atlanta Fed President stated that inflation is on track to reach the 2% target and emphasized the strong footing of the U.S. economy while remaining open to future policy adjustments. - U.S. Economic Data : - ISM Manufacturing PMI (November): Increased to 48.4, above expectations but still indicating contraction. - Construction Spending (October): Rose by 0.4%. --- Outlook for EUR/USD Despite last week’s gains, the long-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. The eurozone's economic data continues to underperform, adding pressure on the ECB to accelerate rate cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and steady growth. While seasonal factors might provide temporary support for the euro, the current market dynamics suggest limited potential for sustained EUR/USD appreciation.
Short
by InvestMate
2
Oil prices fall despite positive Chinese manufacturing data Oil prices dropped for two consecutive days due to a strengthening dollar despite positive manufacturing data from China. The November Caixin manufacturing PMI in China hit 51.5, surpassing the expected 50.5 and marking the highest level since last June. Attention now turns to the OPEC+ meeting on the 5th, where the group will discuss whether to extend crude oil production increases. Originally, OPEC+ planned to raise production by 180,000 barrels per day starting in January, but concerns about oversupply may delay this decision. After briefly testing the support at 67.60, USOIL rebounded slightly. The price stays within the descending channel, and the gap between both EMAs has widened further, indicating bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the channel's lower bound and 67.60, the price may fall further to 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above both EMAs and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 70.00.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context 27.11 data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% last week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment. US Data Falls Short of Expectations A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains. Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results: - **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence. While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak. Comparative Economic Outlook The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics: | Metric | US | Eurozone | |-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------| | **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% | | **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% | | **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% | | **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% | | **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 | | **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 | While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges. Outlook for EUR/USD Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth. Conclusion While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing. Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
Gold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker DollarGold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker Dollar Drive the Recovery Gold prices have rebounded after a recent dip, which followed reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite this temporary pullback, the broader dynamics supporting gold remain intact, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and central bank policies. Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold One of the primary factors behind gold’s continued strength is the persistence of geopolitical risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine keeps investors seeking safe-haven assets, with gold standing out as a key hedge against global instability. Even with temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, the broader geopolitical landscape remains a strong support for gold prices. US Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold US economic data presented a mixed picture, which weakened the dollar and provided a boost to gold prices: - **US GDP QoQ (2nd Estimate):** 2.8%, in line with forecasts, indicating steady economic growth. - **US Initial Jobless Claims:** Reported at 213K, slightly better than the forecast of 215K, showcasing a stable labor market. - **US Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.5%, signaling a softer investment demand. - **US PCE Price Index YoY:** Rose to 2.3%, matching forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%. - **US Core PCE Price Index YoY:** Climbed to 2.8%, in line with expectations but up from the prior 2.7%. - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These figures weakened the US dollar, which typically moves inversely to gold, making the precious metal more attractive to global investors. Inflation Concerns and Central Bank Activity Inflation remains a key driver for gold. Planned tariffs on imported goods, proposed by future President Donald Trump, could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, further boosting gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Moreover, gold continues to benefit from a global environment of falling interest rates. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while central bank purchases add strong, consistent demand to the market. Emerging Market Demand Strengthens Gold Emerging economies, such as China and India, play a critical role in gold’s price trajectory. In these regions, gold holds significant cultural and investment value, and rising wealth levels contribute to increasing demand. This structural support further solidifies gold’s position as a long-term investment choice. What’s Next for Gold? Gold’s rebound highlights its resilience amid shifting global dynamics. While geopolitical developments like the ceasefire in the Middle East can trigger short-term volatility, the broader drivers—geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and central bank policies—remain firmly in place. As the dollar shows signs of softening, gold is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the long term. Is this the beginning of a renewed rally for gold, or will further global developments bring new challenges? Share your insights in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InvestMate
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis Monthly Chart: Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup. Daily Chart: On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart. Price Targets: Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows. Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined. Labor Market Conditions: Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy. Inflation Outlook: For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. Summary and Outlook Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely. Key factors to monitor include: Unemployment data in the coming months. Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines. Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy. Price Expectations: In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone. In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook. If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support level which is an overlap support. Pivot: 106.06 1st Support: 104.65 1st Resistance: 107.50 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
AUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both CurrenciesAUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both Currencies The AUD/USD pair remained relatively steady last week, consolidating as both the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD) stood out as some of the strongest currencies in the forex market. While both currencies are supported by robust fundamentals, differing factors drive their respective strengths, creating an interesting dynamic for the pair. Strength in the Australian Dollar The Australian dollar’s strength stems from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) ability to maintain its current monetary policy. With interest rates at 4.35%, the RBA faces less urgency to implement sharp rate cuts, supported by: - **GDP Annual Growth Rate:** Australia’s economy is growing at 1.00% annually, showing moderate but steady expansion. - **Inflation and Employment:** Relatively high inflation and low unemployment provide the central bank room to hold rates steady, balancing growth with price stability. These factors position the AUD as one of the more stable and attractive currencies among major forex pairs. The Resilient US Dollar On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong, bolstered by robust economic data and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates: - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16):** Better-than-expected at 213K, indicating a healthy labor market. - **S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.):** Surprising to the upside at 57.0, reflecting strong activity in the services sector. However, additional data from the US this week showed signs of slowing economic activity, adding pressure to the dollar: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Declined to -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Slumped to 0.61M, missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Dropped to -14, underperforming the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by only 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.5%. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped sharply to 40.2, well below the expected 44. While the US economy remains stronger overall, these data points highlight areas of cooling, which tempered the dollar’s momentum. Seasonality No Longer Supportive Unlike earlier in the quarter, seasonality now provides less support for AUD/USD. As the year-end approaches, seasonal patterns often shift toward favoring the US dollar due to increased demand for liquidity and a cautious risk environment. This shift adds another layer of resistance for the Australian dollar, which typically performs better during periods of stronger global growth sentiment. Conclusion AUD/USD is in a unique position as both currencies are supported by strong fundamentals. While the Australian dollar benefits from steady domestic conditions and inflationary pressures, the US dollar is bolstered by robust economic performance and higher interest rates. However, signs of cooling in the US economy, as reflected in recent data, have given the AUD a short-term advantage. With seasonality no longer providing support, the pair’s near-term trajectory will depend on further macroeconomic developments and risk sentiment shifts. What are your thoughts on AUD/USD? Could the Australian dollar take the lead, or will the US dollar maintain its upper hand? Share your insights in the comments!
by InvestMate
Gold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker DollarGold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker Dollar Drive the Recovery Gold prices have rebounded after a recent dip, which followed reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite this temporary pullback, the broader dynamics supporting gold remain intact, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and central bank policies. Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold One of the primary factors behind gold’s continued strength is the persistence of geopolitical risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine keeps investors seeking safe-haven assets, with gold standing out as a key hedge against global instability. Even with temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, the broader geopolitical landscape remains a strong support for gold prices. US Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold US economic data presented a mixed picture, which weakened the dollar and provided a boost to gold prices: - **US GDP QoQ (2nd Estimate):** 2.8%, in line with forecasts, indicating steady economic growth. - **US Initial Jobless Claims:** Reported at 213K, slightly better than the forecast of 215K, showcasing a stable labor market. - **US Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.5%, signaling a softer investment demand. - **US PCE Price Index YoY:** Rose to 2.3%, matching forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%. - **US Core PCE Price Index YoY:** Climbed to 2.8%, in line with expectations but up from the prior 2.7%. - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These figures weakened the US dollar, which typically moves inversely to gold, making the precious metal more attractive to global investors. Inflation Concerns and Central Bank Activity Inflation remains a key driver for gold. Planned tariffs on imported goods, proposed by future President Donald Trump, could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, further boosting gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Moreover, gold continues to benefit from a global environment of falling interest rates. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while central bank purchases add strong, consistent demand to the market. Emerging Market Demand Strengthens Gold Emerging economies, such as China and India, play a critical role in gold’s price trajectory. In these regions, gold holds significant cultural and investment value, and rising wealth levels contribute to increasing demand. This structural support further solidifies gold’s position as a long-term investment choice. What’s Next for Gold? Gold’s rebound highlights its resilience amid shifting global dynamics. While geopolitical developments like the ceasefire in the Middle East can trigger short-term volatility, the broader drivers—geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and central bank policies—remain firmly in place. As the dollar shows signs of softening, gold is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the long term. Is this the beginning of a renewed rally for gold, or will further global developments bring new challenges? Share your insights in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InvestMate
Dollar Currency Index DXY Predicts Massive Crypto Bull RunHello, Skyrexians! In crypto trading and investment it's vital to not only analyze some particular assets, but also macro charts. We have already considered the Bitcoin Dominance chart to predict potential altseason in this article . Today we have even more important asset, the TVC:DXY , which reflects in which type of assets investors are about to be in. When crisis happens investors are scared, selling risky assets and buy dollar. In the worthy times investor are greedy to risky assets and dollar currency index decreases. Today we will try to explain why DXY is about to crush giving liquidity to risky assets like our favorite crypto. Let's take a look at the monthly time frame. It looks like DXY has ended the super cycle of any degree and now is printing correction. Waves A and B are likely to be finished already in this correction. The most impulsive wave C is incoming soon. To measure the targets we can use the Fibonacci retracement for the entire Elliott Waves cycle. Area between 0.5 and 0.61 is going to be our target. That's why we are waiting DXY between 88 and 93. Inside this area we plan to wait for the green dot on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator which works great in the past. Important note here is that you have to disable MFI filter on this indicator to work correctly on DXY. As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView. Best regards, Skyrexio Team ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
TVC:DXYShort
by Skyrexio
2
EUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US DataEUR/USD Gains 1.55% This Week Amid Weak US Data The EUR/USD pair strengthened by approximately 1.55% this week, driven by better-than-expected data from the eurozone and disappointing economic reports from the US. Despite this recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as the economic divergence between the two regions continues to weigh on market sentiment. US Data Falls Short of Expectations A series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators pressured the dollar this week: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These data points fueled concerns about slower economic activity in the US, prompting a sell-off in the dollar and supporting EUR/USD gains. Eurozone Data Provides Modest Support The eurozone provided some relief for EUR/USD with slightly better-than-expected results: - **Economic Sentiment (Nov):** Rose to 95.8, exceeding the forecast of 95.1, signaling marginal improvement in business and consumer confidence. While the euro benefitted from these figures, the broader macroeconomic picture in the eurozone remains weak. Comparative Economic Outlook The US economy continues to outshine the eurozone across several key metrics: | Metric | US | Eurozone | |-----------------------|----------------------|---------------------| | **GDP Growth Rate** | 2.70% | 0.90% | | **Unemployment Rate** | 4.10% | 6.30% | | **Inflation Rate** | 2.60% | 2.30% | | **Interest Rate** | 4.75% | 3.40% | | **Manufacturing PMI** | 56.00 | 45.20 | | **Services PMI** | 57.00 | 49.20 | While the eurozone showed some resilience this week, its lower growth rate, higher unemployment, and weaker PMIs highlight the underlying economic challenges. Outlook for EUR/USD Despite this week’s gains, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish in the long term. If eurozone economic data continues to underperform, the European Central Bank (ECB) may face pressure to implement faster and deeper rate cuts. Conversely, the US appears to be on a stable path toward a "soft landing," supported by strong labor markets and robust economic growth. Conclusion While EUR/USD benefitted from weaker US data this week, the pair's long-term direction depends on the relative strength of economic fundamentals between the eurozone and the US. The euro remains vulnerable, especially if eurozone data disappoints further and the ECB accelerates its monetary easing. Will EUR/USD sustain its gains, or is a reversal imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
7
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context 27.11 data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
Gold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker Dollar Gold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker Dollar Drive the Recovery Gold prices have rebounded after a recent dip, which followed reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite this temporary pullback, the broader dynamics supporting gold remain intact, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and central bank policies. Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold One of the primary factors behind gold’s continued strength is the persistence of geopolitical risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine keeps investors seeking safe-haven assets, with gold standing out as a key hedge against global instability. Even with temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, the broader geopolitical landscape remains a strong support for gold prices. US Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold US economic data presented a mixed picture, which weakened the dollar and provided a boost to gold prices: - **US GDP QoQ (2nd Estimate):** 2.8%, in line with forecasts, indicating steady economic growth. - **US Initial Jobless Claims:** Reported at 213K, slightly better than the forecast of 215K, showcasing a stable labor market. - **US Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.5%, signaling a softer investment demand. - **US PCE Price Index YoY:** Rose to 2.3%, matching forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%. - **US Core PCE Price Index YoY:** Climbed to 2.8%, in line with expectations but up from the prior 2.7%. - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. These figures weakened the US dollar, which typically moves inversely to gold, making the precious metal more attractive to global investors. Inflation Concerns and Central Bank Activity Inflation remains a key driver for gold. Planned tariffs on imported goods, proposed by future President Donald Trump, could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, further boosting gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Moreover, gold continues to benefit from a global environment of falling interest rates. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while central bank purchases add strong, consistent demand to the market. Emerging Market Demand Strengthens Gold Emerging economies, such as China and India, play a critical role in gold’s price trajectory. In these regions, gold holds significant cultural and investment value, and rising wealth levels contribute to increasing demand. This structural support further solidifies gold’s position as a long-term investment choice. What’s Next for Gold? Gold’s rebound highlights its resilience amid shifting global dynamics. While geopolitical developments like the ceasefire in the Middle East can trigger short-term volatility, the broader drivers—geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and central bank policies—remain firmly in place. As the dollar shows signs of softening, gold is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the long term. Is this the beginning of a renewed rally for gold, or will further global developments bring new challenges? Share your insights in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InvestMate
1
Ethereum: Momentum Fueled by Growth and AdoptionEthereum: Momentum Fueled by Growth and Adoption Ethereum (ETH) continued its upward trend over the past week, closely following Bitcoin’s rally. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is benefiting from a range of factors that reinforce its position as a leader in the blockchain space. With strong fundamentals, expanding use cases, and favorable seasonal trends, ETH’s price growth appears poised to continue. Adoption and Network Usage The growing adoption of Ethereum for a wide range of applications—ranging from decentralized finance (DeFi) to enterprise solutions—is a key driver of its rising value. Ethereum’s robust and versatile network continues to attract developers, businesses, and users, solidifying its role as the backbone of the blockchain ecosystem. The Rise of DeFi and NFTs The expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, which leverage Ethereum’s smart contract capabilities, has created new opportunities for decentralized lending, borrowing, and trading. Simultaneously, the ongoing popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) keeps Ethereum at the forefront of digital ownership and creative innovation. Network Upgrades and Transaction Fee Burning Technological improvements, such as Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake through the Merge, enhance network efficiency and sustainability. Additionally, the implementation of EIP-1559 introduced the burning of transaction fees, effectively reducing the supply of ETH and creating deflationary pressure, which can drive long-term price appreciation. Institutional Investment and Ethereum ETFs Institutional investors are increasingly entering the Ethereum market, driven by its utility and growth potential. One of the major catalysts has been the launch and increasing inflows into Ethereum-based ETFs, which provide a regulated and convenient way for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to ETH. These inflows not only validate Ethereum’s role as a leading crypto asset but also contribute directly to its demand and price growth. Seasonality and Market Momentum Historically, the second half of December has often been a favorable period for cryptocurrency markets, including Ethereum. Factors such as increased trading activity, end-of-year portfolio adjustments, and overall market sentiment have historically supported upward trends during this time. Ethereum seems well-positioned to benefit from this seasonal tailwind, potentially pushing its price toward new highs. Competition and Ecosystem Growth Ethereum faces competition from other blockchain platforms, but its first-mover advantage, coupled with continuous innovation, helps it maintain a dominant position. The ecosystem of ERC-20 tokens—built on the Ethereum network—further strengthens its utility and value proposition. Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Factors Positive market sentiment and media coverage contribute to Ethereum’s momentum. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and economic uncertainty, are also driving investors to explore alternatives like Ethereum as a hedge and growth asset. Infrastructure and Partnerships The continued development of infrastructure, including wallets, exchanges, and DeFi tools, makes Ethereum more accessible to users and investors. Strategic partnerships and collaborations within the blockchain space are also expanding Ethereum’s reach and utility. Conclusion Ethereum’s price growth is underpinned by a combination of strong network fundamentals, expanding use cases, increasing ETF inflows, and favorable seasonality. From DeFi and NFTs to network upgrades and institutional interest, Ethereum is positioned to continue its upward trajectory as we move into the traditionally bullish second half of December. Will Ethereum leverage these advantages to reach new price milestones? Share your views and insights in the comments!
Long
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The Nasdaq index bounced back with a 0.48% gain today. The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Remained steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but slowing from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66.3% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. If realized, this could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term effects remain uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
3
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The S&P 500 rebounded with a modest 0.36% gain today. The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but showing a slowdown from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context Yesterday’s data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
2
Gold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker Dollar Drive tGold Rebounds: Geopolitical Tensions and a Weaker Dollar Drive the Recovery Gold prices have rebounded after a recent dip, which followed reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite this temporary pullback, the broader dynamics supporting gold remain intact, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and central bank policies. Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold One of the primary factors behind gold’s continued strength is the persistence of geopolitical risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine keeps investors seeking safe-haven assets, with gold standing out as a key hedge against global instability. Even with temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, the broader geopolitical landscape remains a strong support for gold prices. US Dollar Weakness Boosts Gold US economic data presented a mixed picture, which weakened the dollar and provided a boost to gold prices: - **US GDP QoQ (2nd Estimate):** 2.8%, in line with forecasts, indicating steady economic growth. - **US Initial Jobless Claims:** Reported at 213K, slightly better than the forecast of 215K, showcasing a stable labor market. - **US Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.5%, signaling a softer investment demand. - **US PCE Price Index YoY:** Rose to 2.3%, matching forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%. - **US Core PCE Price Index YoY:** Climbed to 2.8%, in line with expectations but up from the prior 2.7%. These figures weakened the US dollar, which typically moves inversely to gold, making the precious metal more attractive to global investors. Inflation Concerns and Central Bank Activity Inflation remains a key driver for gold. Planned tariffs on imported goods, proposed by future President Donald Trump, could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, further boosting gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Moreover, gold continues to benefit from a global environment of falling interest rates. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while central bank purchases add strong, consistent demand to the market. Emerging Market Demand Strengthens Gold Emerging economies, such as China and India, play a critical role in gold’s price trajectory. In these regions, gold holds significant cultural and investment value, and rising wealth levels contribute to increasing demand. This structural support further solidifies gold’s position as a long-term investment choice. What’s Next for Gold? Gold’s rebound highlights its resilience amid shifting global dynamics. While geopolitical developments like the ceasefire in the Middle East can trigger short-term volatility, the broader drivers—geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and central bank policies—remain firmly in place. As the dollar shows signs of softening, gold is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the long term. Is this the beginning of a renewed rally for gold, or will further global developments bring new challenges? Share your insights in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InvestMate
1