Will The SPY Hit 650-700?Just an update on progress in the markets. The dollar has hit my support level already. Because of the quick drop, I expect it to continue to drop even further, though we may get a bit of a bounce first. The Vix is back down and inside of our long-standing sideways channel. And gold has hit its target to the upside.
Plus we'll talk about where the SPY (and U.S. Stock market) is going. That section of the video begins around 07:30 if you want to skip right to the title content of the video. And towards the end of the video, we'll of course discuss where I think Bitcoin is still going before the end of the year and also, where I think it will end up by the end of next year.
These are longer-term targets but they are not solely predicated upon technical analysis. Though the technicals do help support my claims, there is also some fundamental rationale for why I believe the markets remain so volatile, but overall, they will continue their journey upwards.
Dollar
XAUUSD | Trade ideaDuring morning trading, the XAU/USD pair is holding around 2500.00. At the end of last week, gold demonstrated a confident upward trend. It was partly supported by expectations of the US Fed’s imminent transition to a “dovish” monetary policy cycle. Analysts have revised their estimates of a possible interest rate cut of 50 basis points, and now, its probability is no more than 28.0%. At the same time, the American regulator may adjust the value by –25 basis points at each of the three meetings scheduled this year, leading to a sharp reduction in the borrowing cost from the current 5.50%. Traders will discuss the possible steps of the financial authorities all week since the annual symposium in Jackson Hole will be held on Thursday, August 22. The representatives of the world’s central banks will speak, giving assessments of the current economic situation, as well as the timing of changes in monetary parameters. A day earlier, the US Fed will publish the minutes of the July meeting, which ended with the interest rate maintained at the current level. In addition, investors will pay attention to business activity data. The service PMI may fall from 55.0 points to 54.2 points, and the manufacturing PMI from 49.6 points to 49.4 points. Another factor supporting gold prices is the continuing risks of military conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Despite conflicting reports in the media about the Iranian authorities’ imminent response to the death of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, no active measures have been taken against official Israel so far, which, on the one hand, only increases uncertainty, preventing market participants from counting on the parties concluding a peace agreement.
Maximise Your Trading Success 3 Essential Tips for Setting AlertSetting alerts in trading is crucial for effective risk management and maximising opportunities. Here are three key reasons why you should set alerts:
1. Timely Response to Market Movements:
Proactive Trading: Alerts enable traders to respond promptly to significant market movements, ensuring they don't miss critical entry or exit points. This is particularly important in the highly volatile markets, where prices can change rapidly.
Automation: Automated alerts reduce the need for constant monitoring, allowing traders to focus on analysis and strategy while being notified of important market events.
2. Risk Management:
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Alerts: Alerts can help enforce disciplined trading by reminding traders to execute their stop-loss or take-profit orders, thus limiting potential losses and securing profits.
Risk Mitigation: By setting alerts for specific price levels or economic events, traders can better manage risk and avoid significant losses due to unforeseen market changes.
3. Enhanced Trading Efficiency:
Focus on Strategy: Alerts allow traders to concentrate on their trading strategy without being glued to their screens all day. This can lead to more thoughtful decision-making and reduced emotional trading.
Opportunities Identification: Alerts can be set for various technical indicators or chart patterns, helping traders to identify and act on potential trading opportunities more efficiently.
Setting alerts in forex trading enhances your ability to respond to market changes quickly, manage risk effectively, and improve overall trading efficiency.
ETH short time bull runThe chart provided shows an Ethereum (ETH) price movement against the US Dollar (USD) on a 1-hour time frame. The expectation is for a long position, indicating a bullish outlook.
Analysis:
Current Price Action: The chart shows a consolidation phase after a downtrend, indicating a potential reversal. The price has found support around $2,610, which aligns with the previous low, and there's a visible bullish momentum.
Key Levels:
Entry Point: The current level at $2,614.04 seems to be a potential entry point for a long position.
Stop Loss: A stop loss could be placed just below the recent low around $2,586, to protect against a downside move.
Take Profit: A potential take profit level could be set at $2,782.61, which aligns with the previous high and offers a favorable risk-reward ratio of 1:2.
Conclusion:
Given the current market structure and the formation of a higher low, a long position could be justified. The consolidation and support around the $2,610 mark suggest that buyers may step in, pushing the price towards the $2,782.61 target. However, it's important to monitor the market closely and adjust the strategy as necessary based on further price action.
DXY | Market outlookJuly housing data was generally weak, with building permits down 4.0% to 1.396M and housing starts down 6.8% to 1.238M. The sector is under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s interest rates peak and may begin to decline soon. Yesterday, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Governor Alberto Musalem noted that macroeconomic data has strengthened the regulator’s confidence in inflation returning to the 2.0% target, so the adjustment of monetary policy looks timely, adding that the rise in unemployment to 4.3% was due to an increase in labor supply, not a loss of jobs.
R2F Weekly Analysis - 18th August 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
Dollar Index (DXY): Your Trading Plan Explained
Dollar Index formed a descending triangle formation on a daily.
Trading in a bearish trend, this pattern signifies a bearish accumulation.
Look for a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern next week.
Daily candle close below 101.9 will confirm a violation.
A bearish continuation will be expected to 101.0 level then.
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Bitcoin's Golden Opportunity Lost? Bitcoin's price has been struggling to gain traction, even as traditional safe-haven assets like gold have surged to unprecedented heights. The yellow metal recently eclipsed the $2,500 per ounce mark for the first time ever, a testament to its status as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. In stark contrast, Bitcoin has been trading sideways, raising questions about its suitability as a digital gold.
The divergence between Bitcoin and gold is a stark reminder of the challenges facing the world's largest cryptocurrency. While often touted as a digital equivalent of gold, Bitcoin's price behavior has not mirrored the precious metal's performance. This disconnect has fueled skepticism among investors who once saw Bitcoin as a reliable store of value.
Gold's rally is underpinned by a confluence of factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and a weakening US dollar. These conditions typically drive investors towards safe-haven assets. However, Bitcoin has failed to capitalize on this trend, suggesting that it may not be as immune to broader market forces as many had hoped.
Some analysts attribute Bitcoin's underperformance to a combination of factors, including regulatory uncertainty, the ongoing bear market, and the lack of clear catalysts for price appreciation. The cryptocurrency market has been plagued by volatility, and Bitcoin has not been immune to these fluctuations.
Despite the recent price weakness, Bitcoin remains a divisive asset. Bullish investors continue to believe in the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency, citing its underlying technology and the growing adoption of digital assets. They argue that the current downturn is a buying opportunity and that Bitcoin will eventually resume its upward trajectory.
However, skeptics contend that Bitcoin's price is largely driven by speculation and that the cryptocurrency lacks the intrinsic value of gold. They point to the fact that Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class with a limited track record, making it a risky investment.
As the crypto market continues to evolve, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold will be closely watched. If Bitcoin fails to demonstrate its ability to function as a reliable store of value, it could face challenges in attracting institutional investors and gaining widespread acceptance as a legitimate asset class.
Ultimately, the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain. While the cryptocurrency has the potential to disrupt the financial system, it must overcome significant hurdles to realize its full potential.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is essential to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
GBPJPY 187.065 - 0.037 % LONG IDEAS MTF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at STERLING from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
GBPJPY DAILY TF
* Wednesday saw strong bullish momentum coming into play, But friday closed within the range.
* The weekly & daily TF show we are still showing signs of a BEARISH move.
* But seems we may see a reversal before continuation with the bears.
* GJ took External range LQ, looking for that internal range LQ to be taken.
* We are trading in discount of the move,This is where I would be looking for long entries.
* With PO3 looking to open bearish this week to confirm a move higher into premium PD ARRAYS.
GBPJPY 4H TF
* Looking for the week to open BEARISH into the 4h FVG because our HTF BIAS (PO3) Is bullish .
* WEEK open I will probably be looking for long positions OPPORTUNITIES.
* We will see what does the market dish.
* 4H noto giving clear plan with regards to pd arrays but looking to see down move to go high.
GBPJPY 1H TF
* We saw a rally with the bulls, strong momentum to the upside.
* Looking at the 1H FVG, this is where i would look for LONG entries this week.
* Should this PD ARRAY hold will be long for the GJ.
* BASED on the price action served this week.
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
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* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
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| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
DXY is starting a rebound to at least 106.000The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a 19-month Channel Up pattern and this week (as well as on August 05), it almost reached its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). This is a Double Bottom formation so far, which is a bullish pattern, that was also formed on the 1D RSI.
The last time the RSI completed this formation, we've had a bottom that gave way to a strong Bullish Leg. Most rallies/ declines within this pattern have been between a 4.00% to 5.00% range.
As a result, we turn bullish on DXY now, targeting 106.00, which is just below a potential +4.00% rise and almost on the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up.
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Gold Ripper Rally Set For 8-16 into 8-20 Targeting $2575-$2650Have you been following my research on GOLD?
This next move will likely be a very strong Ripper-Rally where Gold will break through the dual Flag Apex and move dramatically higher over the next 5-10+ days.
I will let this video tell you all you need to know.
Remember, watch my Gold Dual-Leg Rally video too.
I wonder what the "driver" of this rally in Gold will be?
US-Dollar?
Foreign Markets?
Some political or geo-political news?
Something will send Gold upward $75-$100+ over the next 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Dollar Index (DXY): Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis and important
key levels to pay close attention to on Dollar Index.
Resistance 1: 103.25 - 103.70 area
Resistance 2: 103.85 - 104.15 area
Resistance 3: 104.57 - 104.87 area
Resistance 4: 105.12 - 105.49 area
Resistance 5: 106.05 - 106.13 area
Support 1: 102.16 - 102.57 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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DOLLAR INDEX LONG TO $108 (UPDATE)I am still bullish on the Dollar even though price action is very slow right now & just ranging. But I see a buying accumulation phase playing out. Mid term bullish towards $108 & once that target is hit, we will be able to say more clearly weather it'll then reverse or carry on bullish in the long term.
It's likely we'll see Gold & the Dollar move in positive correlation with each other in the short term, which doesn't happen much!
XAUUSD 11/8/24Following up on gold this week, we have an area of demand relatively close to the current price action, near where it ended last week. We believe this area could be tested, and if so, we’ll look for either a decisive push back up or a failure. We are strongly bullish on gold and believe it is likely to run higher, aligning with the institutional liquidity moving in the form of trendline liquidity. We could see a sell-off near the high to encourage sellers to place their stops above it. Overall, we expect the high to be breached. If we don’t reach this high and instead pull back lower, we will look for buying opportunities near the lower end of the overall range, just below the low established on Thursday, the 25th. This level holds significant liquidity, so it could be targeted. Our main focus is for the price to shift into the bullish narrative that we recognize on the higher time frame. We’re simply waiting for the price to show us what it wants to do.
Trade your plan, follow your risk management, and always trade based on what price shows you, not on what you want it to do.
DXY: Recessionary Environment And Potential Upsides.Hey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 102.900, DXY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 102.900 support and resistance area.
I highly recommend taking a look at DXY at the beginning of every trading week if not everyday, that will help you to trade USD pairs properly and also spot the correlations with Stocks, Indices, Metals and Cryptocurrencies.
Trade safe, Joe.
XAUUSD - Gold Analysis using ICT ConceptsHere is a an analysis on XAUUSD using ICT Concepts based on our most recent price action. I take a top-down approach in analyzing price and anticipating future movements. Everything is explained in the video so watch it, and feel free to share your thoughts and ideas on what may be in store for Gold in the coming days, weeks, or months.
- R2F