XAUUSD daily analysis 03/07/2024our yesterdays analysis on xauuad was perfect and all our signals hit take profit. today the market is going to have various news and these news are going to put market in volatility.
▶️Long positions above 2319.00 with targets at 2337.00, 2348 2355 2362 2376 2385
▶️Below 2319.00 look for further downside with 2311.00 , 2306 2296 2288 2282
Supports and resistances
2355.00
2348.00
2337.00
2332.00
2319.00
2311.00
2306.0
more detailed analysis will be posted soon
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Dollar
Bitcoin Weathers the Storm: Resilience Shines Despite DollarBitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, has surprised many by demonstrating resilience in the face of a strengthening US dollar. Despite a historically observed inverse relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin, this comes. The DXY, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, currently sits at a lofty 106, indicating a robust greenback. This level is significant, having only been surpassed for 34 trading days in the past year. Traditionally, a strong dollar weakens the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, as investors seek havens in other currencies.
However, Bitcoin's current price action defies this historical trend. While not at its all-time high, Bitcoin is currently trading only around $10,000 below that peak, a testament to its continued strength in the market. Several factors may be contributing to this unexpected decoupling.
Shifting Investor Sentiment: The cryptocurrency market has matured significantly since its early days, and investor sentiment is evolving alongside it. While Bitcoin was initially seen as a speculative asset class, it's increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against inflation and traditional financial uncertainties. This shift in perception could be mitigating the negative impact of a strong dollar on Bitcoin's price.
Institutional Adoption: The influx of institutional investors, such as hedge funds and investment firms, into the cryptocurrency space is another potential factor. These institutions often have a longer-term investment horizon and may be less swayed by short-term fluctuations in the dollar's value. Their presence could be lending stability to the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Adjustment: The Bitcoin network is designed to adjust mining difficulty roughly every two weeks automatically. This ensures a consistent rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation, regardless of the computing power dedicated to mining. An upcoming significant decrease in mining difficulty is anticipated, which could further bolster investor confidence.
Positive Developments Within the Crypto Ecosystem: The broader cryptocurrency ecosystem is witnessing continuous innovation and development. The emergence of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), and Layer-2 scaling solutions is attracting new users and capital into the space. This overall growth in the crypto ecosystem could be spilling over and positively impacting Bitcoin's price.
Uncertainties Remain: Despite the positive signs, it's important to acknowledge the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. The future trajectory of the DXY and broader economic conditions will undoubtedly continue to influence Bitcoin's price. Additionally, regulatory developments and potential security breaches could pose challenges in the future.
Looking Forward: Bitcoin's resilience in the face of a strong dollar is noteworthy. While the reasons behind this decoupling are multifaceted, it suggests a maturing market with a growing pool of long-term investors. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve and gain mainstream adoption, Bitcoin's position as a store of value and a potential hedge against traditional financial instruments could solidify further. However, close attention should be paid to both internal and external factors that may impact Bitcoin's price in the coming months and years.
Gold Trading Sideways and Consolidating, RSI at 50 Gold is trading Sideway, but for how long?
Between $2280 and $2380, the longer this consolidates The better it is for Gold and the market is now accepting this price. Right now the RSI is at 50ish, so the price is neutral, but it will eventually break out one way or another.
Given this long consolidation period and the trend is still up, I suspect it will continue higher going into 2025 and beyond.
Central Banks are still net buyers and not selling... and the USD as the reserve currency will continue to come into question. Gold still has strong fundamentals for ownership.
XAUUSD ANALYSIS FOR ASIAN SECTION 02/07/2024
The XAU/USD (Gold Spot to US Dollar) pair is currently experiencing a mixed outlook. As of July 2, 2024, gold prices have shown some stability, with the spot price hovering around $2,327 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase from previous levels.
Technical Analysis:
Support and Resistance Level s : Gold is facing resistance at $2,338 and support around $2,318. If prices break above the resistance, further upward movement could be seen; conversely, a drop below the support level could indicate a bearish trend.
Moving Averages: Technical indicators like the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) suggest a bearish sentiment in the short term, as the EMA 34 is crossing below the EMA 89.
Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is cautious, with investors waiting for further economic data and potential catalysts to drive significant movement in gold prices.
Economic Factors:
US Dollar Strength: The strength of the US Dollar is a crucial factor influencing gold prices. A stronger dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold.
Global Economic Indicators: Upcoming economic events, such as the ECB Forum on Central Banking and speeches by central bank officials, are likely to impact market sentiment and gold prices.
Given the current analysis, it's advisable to monitor these key levels and economic indicators closely to better anticipate potential movements in the XAU/USD pair
For asian section we are anticipating a bearish reversal
ENTRY: 2332.50
TP 2329
TP2 2327
TP3 2324
TP4 2321
SL 2339
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EURUSD capitulates this summer!I anticipate the Euro, Yuan and Yen all devaluing this summer against the dollar. I think it starts off with PBOC or BOJ devaluing which will start off a firestorm first by increasing the dollar to 140-160+. I anticipate that at a minimum we'll see .75-.80.
Also, the TTM Squeeze indicator is almost on every TF except monthly which will hit by this summer. That means a massive move is coming, that only a devaluation could explain.
EUR/USD No directionEUR/USD No direction
Last week, the EUR/USD pair showed little movement in either direction, remaining relatively flat. This period of stagnation is reflective of several underlying factors affecting the currency market. Let’s delve into the key elements influencing the EUR/USD pair at this juncture.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is under downward pressure. Various technical indicators are signaling potential declines, which is corroborated by the Commitments of Traders (COT) data. The COT report shows that 51.23% of fund positions are short, indicating a bearish sentiment among institutional traders.
Retail Sentiment
Retail investors, on the other hand, hold 55% of their positions long, suggesting a moderately optimistic outlook from the individual investor segment. This divergence in sentiment between institutional and retail investors often points to upcoming volatility, as differing expectations could lead to sharp movements when one group decides to realign with the other.
Seasonal Factors
Seasonally, we are in an interesting period. The first week of July is typically weak for the EUR/USD pair, but historical trends suggest that the rest of the month tends to be more favorable, with potential for upward movement. This pattern provides a mixed outlook for traders who may be trying to balance short-term caution with medium-term optimism.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Adding to the uncertainty is the political situation in Europe, particularly in France. The first round of early parliamentary elections has resulted in a victory for the right-wing National Rally, yet the final outcome will not be determined until next week. This ongoing political uncertainty is likely to weigh on the euro, contributing to the pair's subdued performance.
Macroeconomic Events
Several key macroeconomic events in the upcoming week could significantly impact the EUR/USD pair:
Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest Powell may adopt a hawkish stance.
Wednesday: The release of the ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC Minutes. These reports will provide insights into the economic outlook and future monetary policy directions.
Friday: The Non-Farm Payrolls data will be eagerly watched by the market. The results could influence short-term economic expectations and future decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, preliminary inflation data from the European Union will be released on Tuesday, which could further impact the euro's performance.
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a state of flux, with various factors pulling it in different directions. The lack of significant movement last week suggests that traders are waiting for clearer signals from both technical indicators and upcoming macroeconomic events. The political uncertainty in France adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
Given the current landscape, it seems unlikely that we will see major fireworks from the EUR/USD pair in the immediate future. However, as the month progresses and more data becomes available, we may gain a clearer picture of the direction this pair is likely to take. Investors should stay vigilant and be prepared for potential volatility as these events unfold.
Feel free to comment and share your opinions on the future of the EUR/USD.
EURUSD: Gap Spotted! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
I see a huge gap up after the market opening on EURUSD.
As always, it is a high chance that the gap will be filled.
After a strong bullish continuation, I see a sign of strength of the sellers
- a double top formation on an hourly time frame.
The price may drop soon.
Goals: 1.0728 / 1.0715
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xauusd analysis for the day 1/07/2024xauusd is following a neutral pattern for the day before European market opening.
we will provide major support and resistance for the recent market scenario. a further update will be given based on market momentum changes,
right now xauusd is following a ranging market.
Support
2321
2314
2306
2297
2288
2282
Resistance
2332
2337
2347
2362
2378
2396
these support and resistance can be used as bullish and bearish targets for your trades,
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USD firm with decision from FedMarkets are awaiting a release of crucial US Final GDP data today, which is expected to tick up from an annualized rate of 1.3% to 1.4%.
A meaningfully higher or lower number might change expectations of when the Fed will begin rate cuts.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the next rate hike is expected in September this year.
In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar is the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open, while the US Dollar is the weakest.
However, it is worth noting that the US Dollar remains within a valid long-term bullish trend.
US New Home Sales data came in just a fraction below expectations yesterday.
The Governor of the Bank of England will be holding a press conference about the Financial Stability Report today.
There will be releases of Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales later today in the USA.
The USD price is still on the rise and solid when information about future bond interest rates increases. However, we do not rule out the case that the Fed will reduce inflation to stimulate employment and strengthen the economy. international
DXY - Daily start of bullish legThe Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced two significant bullish legs followed by pullbacks. Currently, it is at the end of the most recent pullback. Notably, the falling momentum appears to be weakening, as evidenced by the shorter and less intense downward legs during the pullback phases. This weakening momentum suggests that the bearish pressure may be subsiding, and the DXY could be preparing for another upward movement.
As illustrated on the chart, the previous pullbacks were marked by substantial declines. However, the current pullback is characterized by weaker downward legs, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. This could lead to the DXY resuming its bullish trend if it manages to break above the recent resistance levels. Traders should closely monitor the price action for confirmation of a reversal, which would be supported by stronger bullish legs and the continuation of the uptrend.
GBPUSD: Time For Pullback 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD leaves clear bullish clues after a test of a key intraday support:
the price formed a bearish trap that was followed by a bullish breakout
of a minor resistance and a confirmed local change of character.
I think that the pair may bounce to 1.266 level.
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US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on DXY , dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
📊 Using DXY as an Indicator for Trading Decisions
The DXY ( US Dollar Index ) can be a valuable indicator for guiding trading decisions. Traditionally, the EUR/USD and DXY exhibit an inverse relationship. When the US Dollar strengthens, EUR/USD tends to weaken, and vice versa. This inverse correlation is rooted in the fact that the Euro represents the alternative currency in the pair.
📈 Analyzing Price Action Since the Start of June
In June, significant price action unfolded. The market swept the previous month's low ( PML ) and broke its structure decisively, initiating a bullish movement. The key confirmation of the bullish momentum was the strong hold of the Inversion Fair Value Gap ( IFVG ).
🔄 Current Market Developments
Currently, the market has surpassed the previous week's high ( PWH ) and established an Equal High ( EQH ). We are now approaching the significant resistance level of the previous month's high ( PMH ).
📉 Internal Levels and Price Reactions
Below the price chart, a Volume Imbalance ( VI ) emerged, triggering a reaction marked by a wick before the market approached the PWH . There's potential for price to revisit this VI , along with addressing the Fair Value Gaps ( FVG ) and Order Block ( OB ) formed in that area.
📈 Forecast and Strategic Considerations
Looking ahead, there's an expectation for further upward movement, targeting the EQH and PMH . Subsequently, a new bearish phase might unfold. For any bullish positions, it's crucial to wait for the absorption of sell-side liquidity before considering entry.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring DXY today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dollar Index (DXY): Bullish Trend Continuation Pattern
I see a nice bullish pattern on an hourly time frame on Dollar Index.
After the price set a new higher high, the market started a correctional
movement within the expanding channel.
Such a channel is called a bullish flag pattern.
Bullish breakout of the resistance of the flag is a strong bullish
trend-following signal that indicates the strength of the buyers.
With a high probability, the market will keep growing.
Next resistance - 106.25
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Wyckoff Bullish Patterns - Dollar getting stronger! Easy MoneyICEUS:DX1!
Dollar getting stronger on daily and weekly chart! Wyckoff Wave Indicator shows the power of buyers who are taking control.
How Wyckoff Wave Indicator works?
The Wyckoff Wave Indicator and the Weis Wave Indicator are both technical analysis tools derived from the principles of Richard D. Wyckoff, a pioneer in the field of market analysis. Here’s a breakdown of each:
Wyckoff Wave Indicator
The Wyckoff Wave Indicator is designed to track the cumulative volume flow of the market. It helps traders understand the underlying strength or weakness by showing the overall trend of buying and selling pressure. The indicator accumulates volume with price movement to depict the market's overall sentiment. Key features include:
Volume Analysis: It considers the volume associated with price movements, indicating whether the market is being driven by strong buying or selling.
Trend Identification: It helps in identifying the primary trend of the market, whether it's bullish, bearish, or sideways.
Divergence Signals: It can show divergences between price movements and volume flow, providing potential reversal signals.
Weis Wave Indicator
The Weis Wave Indicator is a more modern adaptation of Wyckoff's principles, developed by David Weis. It simplifies volume analysis by plotting cumulative volume as waves, making it easier to visualize the flow of buying and selling pressure. Key features include:
Wave Calculation: It aggregates volume over price waves, making it easier to see the ebb and flow of market pressure.
Wave Counts: By tracking the volume associated with each wave, traders can see whether buyers or sellers are dominating.
Market Structure: It helps in understanding the market structure by breaking down movements into distinct waves, each associated with specific volume patterns.
Comparison
Purpose: Both indicators aim to analyze volume in relation to price movements, providing insights into market strength and potential reversals.
Visualization: The Wyckoff Wave Indicator typically presents cumulative volume in a straightforward manner, while the Weis Wave Indicator uses wave patterns for a more intuitive visual representation.
Application: Both indicators are used in conjunction with other Wyckoff principles and tools to develop a comprehensive market analysis strategy.
Usage in Trading
Identify Trends: Both indicators help in determining the dominant market trend, which is crucial for making informed trading decisions.
Spot Reversals: By analyzing volume flow, traders can spot potential reversals ahead of time, improving their entry and exit points.
Confirm Breakouts: The indicators can confirm the validity of breakouts or breakdowns by showing whether there is sufficient volume to support the move.
Tools and Platforms
VolumeDayTrader offers script of such indicators on TradingView. For more details check our profile or DM us.
Dollar Index (DXY): Bullish Trend Continues
Dollar Index set a new local higher high higher close
on a daily time frame yesterday, violating a key daily horizontal resistance.
With a high probability, the broken structure and a rising trend line
compose a demand zone now.
The market will most likely keep growing.
Next resistance - 106.3
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EUR/USD - Forecasted Potential Setup for the Next Few DaysCurrently, the price is forming a descending triangle pattern. I expect it to take liquidity at the 1.07100 level before making another higher low. My focus is on the 1.07350 level as a potential entry point for short positions. Given that the price is down across all timeframes, I am not considering long positions at this moment.
If the price breaks the daily highs, this setup will become invalid, and I will then look for long opportunities on a pullback. However, for now, my strategy is exclusively oriented towards shorts.
Confluences:
Forecast for negative DXY news on 27/06/2024, which is expected to cause a pullback.
Anticipation of positive results in Friday's news, potentially causing a breakout in this pair and a test of the weekly highs for DXY.
Like and comment if you agree with my setup idea.
DXY 4H ( institutional price action )hello dear trader and investors
there are 2 senario for dollar currency index:
senario 1:
We have a price gap.... from 2023
The indicator can fill it with its shadow around the area of 106.65
after testing the 106.65 price can drop ...
senario 2:
Let's wait for the 107 zone to see how the institutions want to play with liquidity...
I expect a HH and a lower low, after removing the stop on both sides (buy and sell ), I expect the dollar to fall...
stop loss need for any position
good luck