R2F Weekly Analysis - 8th July 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
My short-term bias for DXY has switched to bearish. I am looking for a possible lower move on the Dollar Index this week, which should offer some shorts on EURUSD and GBPUSD, the pairs I usually trade. Check out my analysis in the video. I hope you found it insightful.
- R2F
Dollar
Is It End Road for the BEARS...?Hey Guys!
On the larger timeframe of the Monthly, Weekly and Daily, we see this market is bearish.
Over the past few days leading into weeks, we have seen the market gravitate to the north to reach higher prices. We are tempted to believe that all of that bullishness was to drive the market into our expected bullish reversal zone.
Market price is currently inside our Daily zone. We are looking to see reversals.
Where that happens, we will look to trade bearish.
In the unlikely event that the market breaks our zone and clears our protected high, we will deem come to the conclusion that the bearish of the daily chart is over, and we will look to trade Bullish on the Daily.
Until then, we will hold on to our bearish perspective.
AUDUSD D1 - Long SignalAUDUSD D1
We are on the big daily timeframe here for AUDUSD, breaking the previous resistance price level of 0.67. This was a considerable daily resistance price for us. We are now simply looking for a subsequent retest of this zone to see if we can find support on this price level.
If 0.67000 holds as support, we can likely look to position ourselves long with targets of the previous daily high price, nearing 0.68800 price. Circa 180 points.
DXY H8 - Bullish Signal DXY H8
Not a huge amount of movement during the trading sessions yesterday to start the week. We have seen some big, big moves across the likes of XAUUSD and US30, but not much in the FX space. Really hoping to see something pick up off this 105.000 support region.
We have drawn this horizontal black line to highlight this 105.000 handle, and what we would like to see to warrant bullish continuations.
The bearish play was instigated last week from the US cluster data, I think this week we shake it off and continue upside towards that 106.500 price.
XAUUSD analysis for the week 1/07/2024 to 05/07/2024
After touching just above the $2,290 support level on Wednesday, gold prices surged higher intraday. This level has proven to be a formidable support barrier since April, consistently reinforcing itself as the lower boundary of a sideways trading range.
This range has encompassed the majority of price action since April, indicating a neutral mid-term outlook. In the short term, gold is likely to continue oscillating within this established range.
Momentum indicators provide promising signals:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has broken above the neutral 50 level, suggesting an increase in buying pressure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD has made a bullish crossover, indicating a potential shift in momentum towards the upside.
Analysis Summary:
Trend : The recent intraday movement above the $2,290 support level points to a clear upward trend.
Momentum: Bullish signals from the RSI and MACD suggest a positive shift in momentum.
Strategic Recommendation:
Primary Strategy: Buying the dips is recommended, as the strong support level and bullish momentum indicators signal further price increases.
Target Levels:
First resistance target: $2,337
Subsequent resistance target: $2,348 2362 2377-85
Conclusion:
With a clear upward trend, a robust support level at $2,290, and bullish momentum indicators, gold prices are poised to rise. Investors should consider buying on dips, targeting the resistance levels at $2,337 , 2347, 2362, 2377 and 2385.
DXY H4 - Buy SetupDXY H4
The dollar index has been steadily climbing since it last reached the significant support level of 104.000. We have observed higher highs and higher lows until recent trade (Friday). The release of NFP/AE and UE figures on Friday caused market volatility, notably impacting XAUUSD.
Despite breaking through south of the 105.500 level, we have found some support around 105.000. If 105.000 level holds, we could see a rebound, potentially targeting the 106.500 level once again, which has always been our eventual swing target.
Dollar Index (DXY): Very Bearish Outlook
Dollar Index leaves multiple bearish clues on a daily.
The market broke and closed below a support line of a rising wedge pattern,
then the price violated a key horizontal support.
Looks like sellers will keep dominating.
Next support - 104.5
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GBPUSD May Keep Growing! Here is Why 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD broke and closed above a key daily structure resistance.
The broken structure turned into support.
Retesting the broken structure, the price formed a double bottom
pattern and successfully violated its neckline.
It confirms the strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Goal - 1.2795
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DXY Seems to be going sideways with a upward biasCurrently, the DXY is touching the 25MA. Usually, price tends to bounce off this line or cross it and test the price action, determining if price should go lower or higher. Here we can see this test play out. With quite a bit of support, it's possible that price will continue to move along this sideways trend. Since the sideways movement is indeed going upward, we want to follow the trend, therefore we are long.
Furthermore, the stop loss is set exactly after some lower lows, since breaking below this level would mean that the current sideways uptrend is over and a downtrend has begun.
EURUSD - BULLISH SCENARIOHello Traders !
On Wednesday 26 June, The EURUSD reached a support level (1.06661 - 1.06494) and failed to break it !
Let's expect the Bullish Scenario:
if the price breaks above the resistance level (1.07614 - 1.07436) and closes above that,
We will see a bullish move📈
TARGET: 1.08065🎯
Is Biden quitting the biggest market risk right now? Bloomberg reports that dozens of U.S. House Democratic lawmakers are considering sending President Biden a letter urging him to withdraw from the race. The New York Times confirms this, citing a key Biden ally who reveals that the president understands the fragility of his candidacy following a lackluster debate performance last week.
Despite the speculation, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has dismissed these claims as "absolutely false," asserting, "The president said it is absolutely false. That is coming directly from him."
President Biden, at least publicly, remains steadfast, confident in his mental sharpness, and in another concerning sign, seemingly perplexed by the ongoing doubts about his capabilities.
However, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights one in three Democrats think Biden should step aside. When potential replacements were considered, former First Lady Michelle Obama strangely emerged as the leading candidate in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump, with a 50% to 39% lead. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump by a narrow margin of 42% to 43%, indicating her competitive standing is comparable to Biden's.
Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call for Biden's withdrawal, expressing hope that the president will make the "painful and difficult decision" to step down.
Wild tradeMassive inverted HS building up to break out the triangle. Aussie is correlated to Gold, and the US Dollar will suffer from the monetary policies of the FED.
This trade is not for everyone. If you are a day trader probably it will be frustrating for you. It could take months to play out.
Open a long position and add at every pull back. We will have a fight at the upper vertex of the triangle. The SL triggers if the inverted HS pattern is busted in the weekly timeframe. Give it time. In Forex you only need a few trades a year to make great profits but patient is needed.
XAUUSD daily analysis 03/07/2024our yesterdays analysis on xauuad was perfect and all our signals hit take profit. today the market is going to have various news and these news are going to put market in volatility.
▶️Long positions above 2319.00 with targets at 2337.00, 2348 2355 2362 2376 2385
▶️Below 2319.00 look for further downside with 2311.00 , 2306 2296 2288 2282
Supports and resistances
2355.00
2348.00
2337.00
2332.00
2319.00
2311.00
2306.0
more detailed analysis will be posted soon
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Bitcoin Weathers the Storm: Resilience Shines Despite DollarBitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, has surprised many by demonstrating resilience in the face of a strengthening US dollar. Despite a historically observed inverse relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin, this comes. The DXY, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, currently sits at a lofty 106, indicating a robust greenback. This level is significant, having only been surpassed for 34 trading days in the past year. Traditionally, a strong dollar weakens the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, as investors seek havens in other currencies.
However, Bitcoin's current price action defies this historical trend. While not at its all-time high, Bitcoin is currently trading only around $10,000 below that peak, a testament to its continued strength in the market. Several factors may be contributing to this unexpected decoupling.
Shifting Investor Sentiment: The cryptocurrency market has matured significantly since its early days, and investor sentiment is evolving alongside it. While Bitcoin was initially seen as a speculative asset class, it's increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against inflation and traditional financial uncertainties. This shift in perception could be mitigating the negative impact of a strong dollar on Bitcoin's price.
Institutional Adoption: The influx of institutional investors, such as hedge funds and investment firms, into the cryptocurrency space is another potential factor. These institutions often have a longer-term investment horizon and may be less swayed by short-term fluctuations in the dollar's value. Their presence could be lending stability to the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Adjustment: The Bitcoin network is designed to adjust mining difficulty roughly every two weeks automatically. This ensures a consistent rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation, regardless of the computing power dedicated to mining. An upcoming significant decrease in mining difficulty is anticipated, which could further bolster investor confidence.
Positive Developments Within the Crypto Ecosystem: The broader cryptocurrency ecosystem is witnessing continuous innovation and development. The emergence of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), and Layer-2 scaling solutions is attracting new users and capital into the space. This overall growth in the crypto ecosystem could be spilling over and positively impacting Bitcoin's price.
Uncertainties Remain: Despite the positive signs, it's important to acknowledge the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. The future trajectory of the DXY and broader economic conditions will undoubtedly continue to influence Bitcoin's price. Additionally, regulatory developments and potential security breaches could pose challenges in the future.
Looking Forward: Bitcoin's resilience in the face of a strong dollar is noteworthy. While the reasons behind this decoupling are multifaceted, it suggests a maturing market with a growing pool of long-term investors. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve and gain mainstream adoption, Bitcoin's position as a store of value and a potential hedge against traditional financial instruments could solidify further. However, close attention should be paid to both internal and external factors that may impact Bitcoin's price in the coming months and years.
Gold Trading Sideways and Consolidating, RSI at 50 Gold is trading Sideway, but for how long?
Between $2280 and $2380, the longer this consolidates The better it is for Gold and the market is now accepting this price. Right now the RSI is at 50ish, so the price is neutral, but it will eventually break out one way or another.
Given this long consolidation period and the trend is still up, I suspect it will continue higher going into 2025 and beyond.
Central Banks are still net buyers and not selling... and the USD as the reserve currency will continue to come into question. Gold still has strong fundamentals for ownership.
XAUUSD ANALYSIS FOR ASIAN SECTION 02/07/2024
The XAU/USD (Gold Spot to US Dollar) pair is currently experiencing a mixed outlook. As of July 2, 2024, gold prices have shown some stability, with the spot price hovering around $2,327 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase from previous levels.
Technical Analysis:
Support and Resistance Level s : Gold is facing resistance at $2,338 and support around $2,318. If prices break above the resistance, further upward movement could be seen; conversely, a drop below the support level could indicate a bearish trend.
Moving Averages: Technical indicators like the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) suggest a bearish sentiment in the short term, as the EMA 34 is crossing below the EMA 89.
Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is cautious, with investors waiting for further economic data and potential catalysts to drive significant movement in gold prices.
Economic Factors:
US Dollar Strength: The strength of the US Dollar is a crucial factor influencing gold prices. A stronger dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold.
Global Economic Indicators: Upcoming economic events, such as the ECB Forum on Central Banking and speeches by central bank officials, are likely to impact market sentiment and gold prices.
Given the current analysis, it's advisable to monitor these key levels and economic indicators closely to better anticipate potential movements in the XAU/USD pair
For asian section we are anticipating a bearish reversal
ENTRY: 2332.50
TP 2329
TP2 2327
TP3 2324
TP4 2321
SL 2339
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