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Bitcoin is about to make a large move!BTC has lost some key technical support levels. The weakness displayed in crypto has come while the stock markets have been incredibly strong Its never a good sign when you see BTC getting rejected at double top. The previous ATH at 69k seems to be really keeping price action in check. BTC has 2 channels converging around 57k - 59K. Don't be surprised if we see more sellers in the next couple weeks. Util we break the bullish neckline, the 94K price is only a dream.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trading-Capital
1
Economic Indicators and DXY: Navigating CPI and FOMCHello Traders, In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring the DXY for a potential selling opportunity around the 105.700 zone. The DXY had been trading in an uptrend but recently managed to break out of this trend. Currently, it is in a correction phase, approaching the key retrace area at the 105.700 support and resistance zone. This level is crucial as it has historically acted as a pivot point for price action. However, it is essential to consider the broader economic context, particularly with two major events on the horizon: the release of the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, both scheduled for tomorrow. The CPI data will be a critical indicator of inflationary pressures within the US economy. A higher-than-expected CPI reading (a hot CPI) would indicate rising inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance. This would likely involve tightening monetary policy further, potentially leading to a stronger US dollar. In this scenario, we would reconsider and likely cancel our short position on the DXY, as a stronger dollar would work against the trade setup. On the other hand, if the CPI data comes in softer than expected, indicating lower inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve may lean towards a more dovish stance. This dovish outlook could involve maintaining or even easing current monetary policies, which would likely weaken the US dollar. A weaker dollar would support our bearish view on the DXY, making the 105.700 zone a favorable entry point for short positions. Additionally, last week's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report also showed robust employment numbers, adding another layer of complexity to the Fed's decision-making process. The interplay between strong employment data and CPI readings will be crucial in shaping market expectations and the Fed's policy trajectory. In summary, while we are looking at the 105.700 zone as a potential selling point for the DXY, it is imperative to stay alert to the upcoming CPI and FOMC announcements. These events will provide significant insights into the US economic outlook and the Fed's policy direction, both of which are pivotal for our trading strategy. Trade safely, Joe
TVC:DXYShort
by JoeChampion
9
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 48 - HKDTWD - (18th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing HKDTWD, starting from the 3-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
Dollar's Rally Wins Over Traders as Fed Decision LoomsThe U.S. dollar capped its strongest weekly run since February, buoyed by a shift in sentiment among traders as they awaited the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. After weeks of anticipation of potential interest rate cuts, the market witnessed a reversal as the greenback regained its allure. This recent surge comes from a five-day winning streak for the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies. The index rose by over 1% during this period, marking its most significant weekly advance since early 2024. This bullish sentiment towards the dollar is a reversal from earlier market expectations. Previously, many traders had positioned themselves for a dovish turn from the Fed, anticipating potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year. This anticipation has contributed to a weakening of the dollar in recent months. However, recent economic data and comments from Fed officials have cast doubt on the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. Upticks in inflation figures and a robust labor market have fueled speculation that the central bank might maintain its current hawkish stance for longer. "The recent economic data has painted a somewhat different picture than what the market had initially expected," noted Sarah Lopez, a foreign exchange strategist at a leading investment bank. "Stronger inflation readings and a resilient job market suggest the Fed might need to stay the course on its tightening policy for a while longer." This shift in expectations has prompted traders to reassess their positions. Many who had previously bet on a weaker dollar are now scrambling to cover their short positions, leading to a surge in demand for the greenback. "We've seen a significant unwinding of short dollar positions in recent days," commented Michael Jones, a currency trader at a major financial institution. "The market is starting to price in the possibility that the Fed might hold off on rate cuts, and that's giving the dollar a much-needed boost." "The Fed's language will be critical in determining the dollar's next move," said Lopez. "If the statement suggests a continued commitment to fighting inflation, the dollar could extend its gains. However, any dovish hints could trigger a renewed selloff." Beyond the immediate impact of the Fed decision, the dollar's long-term prospects will depend on several factors, including the relative path of interest rates in the U.S. compared to other major economies. "The dollar's strength will likely hinge on the divergence between U.S. monetary policy and that of other central banks," explained Jones. "If the Fed remains hawkish while other central banks stay accommodative, the dollar could continue to appreciate." The recent resurgence of the dollar has implications for various asset classes. A stronger greenback can make U.S. exports more expensive and less competitive, potentially weighing on corporate profits. Conversely, it can make dollar-denominated assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, more attractive to foreign investors. In conclusion, the dollar's recent rally underscores the dynamic nature of currency markets. As economic data and central bank pronouncements evolve, so too do investor expectations. The upcoming Fed decision is poised to be a pivotal moment for the dollar, with its outcome likely to shape the currency's trajectory in the coming months.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY Bullish rallies from 105.200 or 104.400The bias for the dollar is to continue its bullish trend. We have seen a change of character on the higher time frame followed by a break of structure, confirming the upward movement. There are also equal highs above the current price that need to be swept. Due to recent bullish momentum driven by news, the price may be exhausted. At the start of the week, we might see a drop in price as it mitigates a demand zone. Once the price taps into one of these marked demand zones, I expect a bullish reaction. P.S. Once the price moves up, it may react to the 8-hour supply zone, causing a temporary sell-off. However, I won’t be surprised if this zone gets violated due to the liquidity pool sitting above it.
TVC:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
R2F Weekly Analysis - 15th June 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! I feel like the Dollar Index is primed to move higher. It has so far been acting how I have anticipated, respecting institutional order flow. Let's breakdown what has happening, and my thought process around it. In May, price retraced after a consolidation, engineering equal highs. This bodes well for my bullish outlook. Price bottomed it's retracement on the 7th June 2024. If you check the Dollar futures chart took out buyside liquidity and created an SMT divergence on the DXY chart. Because of this, I am more confident in price not coming down to take out the relative equal lows below. Price expanded from there, and retraced into a weekly wick CE coupled with a daily bullish Orderblock, halting in its tracks and expanding higher again. The sudden drop and equally sudden recover adds additional confluence to my bullish outlook, not because of the "strength" but because of the manipulation of sentiment. Now we are re-entering a previously used weekly SIBI for the potential of using it as an iFVG. We did not close the weekly conventionally higher than the actual iFVG, as I would usually like, but the bullishness of the previous week's candle leaves the idea open of us expanding higher in the coming week with little retracement below it's open, therefore creating a BISI that may or may not be used later. As for targets, first is the previous month's high that is coupled with equal highs. The two other targets are a weekly swing high that goes way back, and a New Week Opening Gap which is deeper into the general liquidity void residing above. If you enjoyed this analysis, leave a like or a comment. If you want to learn how to analyze like this, check out my profile for more videos and information. Happy Trading!
TVC:DXYLong
by Road_2_Funded
DXY - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Hi guys! I feel like the Dollar Index is primed to move higher. It has so far been acting how I have anticipated, respecting institutional order flow. Let's breakdown what has happening, and my thought process around it. In May, price retraced after a consolidation, engineering equal highs. This bodes well for my bullish outlook. Price bottomed it's retracement on the 7th June 2024. If you check the Dollar futures chart took out buyside liquidity and created an SMT divergence on the DXY chart. Because of this, I am more confident in price not coming down to take out the relative equal lows below. Price expanded from there, and retraced into a weekly wick CE coupled with a daily bullish Orderblock, halting in its tracks and expanding higher again. The sudden drop and equally sudden recover adds additional confluence to my bullish outlook, not because of the "strength" but because of the manipulation of sentiment. Now we are re-entering a previously used weekly SIBI for the potential of using it as an iFVG. We did not close the weekly conventionally higher than the actual iFVG, as I would usually like, but the bullishness of the previous week's candle leaves the idea open of us expanding higher in the coming week with little retracement below it's open, therefore creating a BISI that may or may not be used later. As for targets, first is the previous month's high that is coupled with equal highs. The two other targets are a weekly swing high that goes way back, and a New Week Opening Gap which is deeper into the general liquidity void residing above. If you enjoyed this analysis, leave a like or a comment. If you want to learn how to analyze like this, check out my profile for more videos and information. Happy Trading! - R2F
TVC:DXYLong
by Road_2_Funded
Stocks Good. Crypto Meh. And I Am Pulling My Stops.Traders, Market makers continue to torture crypto longs but their time is growing short. The U.S. stock market continues to press higher, led by mega-corp giants like NVidia. It is simply a matter of time before crypto follows. In the meantime though, I am tired of playing this game with MMs. For the first time since creating my public portfolio, I've decided to pull out all of the stops on my long entries. I am going to pop a few cold ones and chill for the weekend. I just don't want to play that game anymore. But please. Don't take any of this as financial advice per usual. You do you. I am only here to entertain you all with my poor choices.
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
AUD/USD: Potential swing trade long setupAUD posted a strong rally of 5% from the April low, before 67c capped as resistance. A choppy rage has since formed between 66c-67c, although it could also be a bull flag in the making. Whilst we wait for it to decide which of the two it is, we're looking at a cheeky swing trade long idea heading into the weekend. The 1-hour chart shows a strong rally from US CPI, and recent prices action has retraced against that move. Prices are stabilising around the 20-day EMA, so perhaps it is close to a swing low. The bias is bullish whilst prices hold above the monthly pivot point (0.6610), but tighter risk management could be used if momentum turns higher (such as the recent swing lows). The initial target is near the upper 1-day implied volatility band of 0.6657.
Long
by CityIndex
USDCAD MOVED AS PREDICTEDOn Monday, I was confident that USDCAD was set for a bullish move. All indicators pointed towards an upcoming surge in momentum. I just needed to wait for another bullish flag to form, which it began to do. But then the CPI report came out, disrupting everything and wrecking the market structure. As usual, after such news, the price tried to revert to its original direction. Eventually, I spotted a double bottom—a perfect signal to execute the trade.
Long
by fasthandfx
1
Bearish on DXYThis week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone. Let's see what happens . . . If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.
TVC:US10YShort
by SamanFx0