XAUUSD ANALYSIS OF THE WEEKLast week market has seen major volatile movements and this week the market will be more volatile due to abundant economic events that are about to happen.
last week we have seen fall to major support area of 2322 and again market trying to breach the support and go to area of 2310 and from there a down fall to even 2281.
The major moving averages both smoothed and exponential are in areas of 2344 to 2347 area.
Breach above the area will meet major resistance of 2355 2367 2374 2383 2397.
BULLISH AND BEARISH TARGET :
BULLISH:
2335
2343
2347
2355
2367
2376
2398
BEARISH;
2321
2312
2298
2287
2282
Dollar
$DXY breakout?#dollar index, #dxy broke out the falling channel with yesterday's dump on assets like #gold #silver #btc thus, money has flown into #usd .DXY did 2 fake outs in a month. If this is a real breakout, all markets, #currencies #altcoins #metals #commodities #crypto etc. may taste a blood bath period.
Not financial advice.
Bye Bye DollarShort term uptrend broken. Is heading to the uptrend line from Jan 2022, and I think it can break it down. I'm already short in Dollar against AUD and GBP and I have been adding. And I will add even more. To make it even worst for the Dollar the index broke down the uptrend with a HS. I don't need another trade to close out the year. This is the one, all in. I won't close my positions until it reaches my target.
xauusd ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT REPORTADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
FORECAST 173K
PREVIOUS 192K
ACTUAL 152K
the data released is less than forecast and also less than previous report, which is too much bearish for dollar.
its impact may show up after the us market is opened
The Overlooked Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on Inflation Everyone talks about higher CPI when crude is up, but ignores it when prices drop.
Right now, lower crude oil is actually helping to soften inflation and weaken the dollar.
Keep an eye on the neckline around $70—but it might not be easy to break.
XAUUSD H4 - Long SignalXAUUSD H4
Here is the outlook for XAUUSD as it stands, we are firm believers in trading what you see. We can see the DXY took a slight bounce from that 104.000 mark and therefore the DXY is still in bullish demand. That being said, $2330/oz has been our previous area of support for a while now, and we hold our ground until it breaks.
Upon a potential break, we can simply change our bias and start trading in line with the new breakout trend (should it sustain). A simple motto we go by, trade what you see and don't fix it unless it's broken. This is the staple of a zone trading strategy. Learn to love your losses when they can occur, because these losses often lead the a monster of a reversal trade.
Dollar Index (DXY): Time For Pullback?!
Dollar Index looks quite oversold after a yesterday's bearish movement.
The price reached a key horizontal support and formed a double bottom pattern on that.
I think that we may see a pullback today at least to 103.9
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
dollar Index to fall towards 101, 100Dollar index has been weak on recent weeks and this move is likely to continue. I expect XETR:DAX to continue falling towards it's previous support and resistance levels at around 102, 101 then 100
If this move happens then it is good news for pairs like FX:EURUSD and FX:GBPUSD as they are all set to drift north. Fundamentally news have been against the dollar recently. On monday 3rd we had US ISM Manufacturing figures which came lower than expected. Today 4thmay24 their is JOLTS Job opening report which is also expected to be lower and this will be a negative driver for $dax.
Always do your own research before pulling and shots .
Use a hard stop loss and good luck. Check my socials and follow for updates
Yields selling off, US Dollar weakThe 2Yr Yield has cratered since our last post.
As has the 10 Yr #yield $TNX.
The pattern breaking, whichever direction, will give us an indication of the likelier direction that #equities will go.
Is the US #Dollar giving us an idea?!?!?!
You'd think CRYPTOCAP:BTC and AMEX:GLD would be moving better with the selloff of $DXY.
Saudi watch...
The Dollar Remains On TrackThe dollar is right on its projected path as expected. Inflation has prevented the Fed from lowering rates at least once. Can we expect a rate drop before the end of the year?
My guess is that even with a bit of inflation showing the Fed will drop rates at least once. There are several reasons for my conclusion here not least of which are weakening economic indications which are too numerous to list for the purposes of this post but some of which are the collapsing car market, cc default rates exploding, commercial real estate vacancies still increasing, and many other factors and lead indicators.
There is also the fact that the Fed was initially expected to drop rates 3 times in 2024. Failing to drop at least once before the end of the year would have psychological ramifications on the market that potentially could be disastrous.
And finally, there is the fun fact that historically the Fed has always adjusted rates in an election year. There is only one exception to this rule …2012. Based upon this statistic alone we can see that the probability of a rate adjustment this year is high. And we know that if there is an adjustment, it will almost certainly be to the downside as that is what has been expected all along. Any anomaly to expectations would cause chaos and catastrophe in the markets.
All this being said we can then continue to expect the dollar to travel its expected pathway …down. 103.5 is the next support. Below that is that pink ascending trendline around 102 and rising.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 14 - US10Y - (3rd June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing US10Y, starting from the 3-Month chart.
- R2F
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 13 - AUDNZD - (3rd June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing AUDNZD, starting from the 12-Month chart.
- R2F
EURUSD: Your Support & Resistance Levels For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important key levels to focus on EURUSD next week.
Resistance 1: 1.0880 - 1.0896 area
Resistance 2: 1.0921 - 1.0942 area
Resistance 3: 1.0947 - 1.0982 area
Support 1: 1.0788 - 1.0800 area
Support 2: 1.0723 - 1.0748 area
Support 3: 1.0649 - 1.0666 area
Support 4: 1.0600 - 1.0619 area
Consider these structure for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
DXY POTENTIAL REVERSAL WITH A BREAKOUTDXY is currently trading within an expanding channel. A potential reversal could occur if the price manages to break out bullishly from this structure and surpass the identified consolidation zone. However, if this breakout does not happen as anticipated, we might see a further decline or an extended period of consolidation.
EURUSD TURTLE SOUP SETUP SHORT - BEFORE INTEREST RATE CUTHi. I am bearish on EURUSD now as it reached the price I was interested to open short.
Interest Rate cut for EUR is coming in June, the dollar should start reversing around now.
CFTC reported recently more commercial shorts compared to longs (attached).
Stop loss on chart.
Target 1: 1.081
Final target on retest of flip zone.
Dollar Index (DXY): Pullback From Key Level
Dollar Index nicely respected a key daily horizontal resistance.
I see a double top formation on an hourly time frame
and a confirmed violation of its neckline.
I think that the market may drop at least to 104.43 before the news.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️