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Dollar

Mighty Dollar Roars Back: A Wake-Up Call for Global MarkeThe financial markets of 2024 have witnessed a surprising resurgence: the unwavering strength of the US dollar. After predictions of a decline at the year's outset, the greenback has defied expectations, surging over 4% according to the Bloomberg dollar index. This unexpected power play by the dollar serves as a stark wake-up call for investors around the globe, forcing a reassessment of global economic dynamics. Several factors are fueling the dollar's dominance: • Resilient US Economy: Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown, the US economy has displayed remarkable strength. Robust economic data, coupled with persistent inflation, has prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. Rising interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. • US Exceptionalism Narrative: The perception of the US as a safe haven in a world riddled with geopolitical uncertainties is bolstering the dollar's appeal. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are driving investors towards reliable and stable economies. The relative stability of the US, compared to global turmoil, strengthens the dollar's position as a go-to currency during times of crisis. • Sticky Inflation: The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is another key driver of dollar strength. The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates, while potentially slowing economic growth, is seen as a necessary step to curb inflation. This hawkish stance stands in stark contrast to the dovish policies of central banks in other major economies, like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates. This divergence in monetary policy further strengthens the dollar's relative appeal. The Ripple Effects The resurgent dollar has significant ramifications for global markets: • Currency Devaluation: A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on other currencies. This can make imports into the US cheaper but exports from the US more expensive, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Emerging market economies, particularly those heavily reliant on foreign capital, could face currency depreciation and capital outflows. • Equity Market Volatility: The rising dollar can create headwinds for equity markets outside the US. As the dollar strengthens, foreign investments become less attractive, potentially leading to capital repatriation and reduced liquidity in other markets. This could lead to increased volatility in global stock markets. • Commodities Market Impact: A strong dollar generally translates to lower commodity prices. This is because most commodities are priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. This could impact countries heavily reliant on commodity exports. The Road Ahead The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain. The path of US interest rates, the evolution of global economic conditions, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions will all be crucial factors shaping the dollar's strength. The current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. A strong dollar can create opportunities in US assets but necessitates careful portfolio diversification to mitigate currency risks. The evolving global landscape demands close monitoring and a nimble investment strategy to navigate the volatility. The resurgent dollar serves as a potent reminder of the US economy's enduring strength and its role as a global anchor currency. As the world grapples with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the dollar's reign is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, demanding a recalibration of global investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
$SHOP 10D wants $68 if we stay under $80Of course, all ideas are my opinion alone. SHOP went a bit crazy last week but still rejected the same gap from the Winter 22' pullback. Looking at this head and shoulders on the daily, PA seemingly looking for a touch of the gap below around $64. May have to wait for the first week of April for the move to be underway. Keep on Watch, with a Bullish Market, $82+ possible before the end of the week for a Bull Trap setup as stock is breaking trendlines of the possible larger timeframe bear flag its been in since Spring 22' .... Stay Patient.. after high $60s I'll be looking for a rally to fill gap above at $89.12
NYSE:SHOPShort
by TazmanianTrader
2
DXY Weekly Analysis Here's the corrected version: Last month, we anticipated that the #DXY price would continue to be bearish and take support liquidity from Mon 10 Jul '23. However, the fundamentals contradicted last month's analysis as the #DXY strengthened again after inflation rise and the Fed announced they would keep interest rates fixed until the next meeting. It's probable that we will see a Bullish trend in DXY this year if there's no decrease in inflation or interest rates. This highlights the importance of fundamentals in this quarter. From a technical perspective, we observe weakness in breaking the support liquidity in #DXY, indicating that it will likely rise again and target Mon 02 Oct '23 for short-term liquidity. For the long term, we anticipate the price will reach a fair value in the MON 07 Nov '22 liquidity gap as the long-term target.
TVC:DXYLong
by Deotrade1
DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) Shorts from 107.000My view on the dollar is relevant to all major pairs I trade, including GOLD, GBPUSD (GU), and EURUSD (EU). This week, we are approaching a strong high point with a previous Wyckoff distribution on a higher timeframe, now entering a significant supply level on the 9-hour chart. I anticipate a reaction at this level followed by a temporary decline in the dollar. I expect the dollar to drop at least to the newly established 12-hour demand zone, where I foresee a bullish continuation. This supports the broader bullish trajectory of the dollar, aiming towards tapping into a 2-month supply zone where a major bearish reaction is expected. Therefore, if I anticipate the dollar to initially rise and then drop, I also expect EURUSD and GBPUSD to continue their downward trends accordingly. Note that this is my current bias, and I will adjust it based on evolving market trends. It's essential to consider various zones and scenarios for a comprehensive analysis." This version maintains your original message while improving clarity and readability. Feel free to adjust it further based on your preferences!
TVC:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
Why I Expect 200 Dollar USOIL Wti CrudeUsing momentum indicators (keltner channel) I've been watching this weekly rally and recent correction. Using the close, and the last wave, oil price could climb to astronomical levels in USD. There is a momentum shift of the correction, and the bull market for oil appears to be underway. At this pace, 200 by june is not far fetched. I expect the Dollar to lose significant strength, and costly measures enforced as an abysmal attempt to stifle inflation. Soon interest payments will become the largest expense if it hasn't already. There is much reason to worry about world markets right about now. Larger Pattern Breakout and here is the shift up close on the weekly: This is not financial advice.
TVC:USOILLong
by Mikhiavelli
33
Dollar Index (DXY): Potential Scenarios Explained 💵 That was quite a boring week for Dollar Index. The market was stuck within a narrow horizontal range on a daily. Next week, wait for a breakout of the range. Bullish breakout of its resistance will be a strong trend following signal, while a bearish violation of its support will initiate a correctional movement on the market. Next key resistance - 106.85 Next key support - 105.20 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:DXYLong
by VasilyTrader
3
Silver will launch when USDJPY plummets from Dovish FEDSCENARIO 1: EVERYTHING hinges on the carry trade. If USDJPY goes down, so will yields - making inflation higher and commodities will boom. Of course this is a mistake and Japan (and the whole world) will feel the effects off inflation here since TVC:DXY will plummet also to 97. Then when everyone blows up in the summer sparking a u-turn and the FED realizes inflation reignited, the FED will be forced to hike rates, as the BOJ goes back to negative interest rates. This will spark the largest explosion of currencies as the TVC:DXY goes to 140-160+ - blowing up last in the process. This will give central bankers the opportunity to bring out CBDC's as they go negative interest rates hinged on social credit scores. That's unless Donald Trump can overcome all the cheating and banana republic shenanigans (arrest or assassination). If he is able to become president then he will move the USA back to a gold standard when everyone else (BRICS) is being forced to swear fealty to a digital yuan (remnimbi) that's backed by social credit scores. SCENARIO 2: IF the FED goes hawkish, that will spark the blowup in currencies and markets, forcing silver down before catapulting when the FED erases interest rates, but I believe we are in for scenario 1.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by EmptyEternity
2
USDJPY capitulates before BOJ blows up this summerThe FED is either: A. Going to be hawkish and provoke a mini-meltdown before another FED speaker comes out next week and hints at rate cuts in June for sure. B. Going to be dovish Either way, USDJPY will fall to 97 area, bringing a roar of inflation back into the limelight. People will think it's the death of the dollar, but what happens here is the opposite everywhere else since the dollar TVC:DXY is the reserve currency. This means when the dollar comes down, inflation goes up HERE - which means everyone else experiences DEFLATION. Deflation will force higher unemployement and a destruction of their foreign export base which is everyone. This will force them (especially the BOJ) to print their own currency forcing the dollar higher up past 140-160+. This will explode the foreign currencies with ours being last. By this time there will be enough chaos that the central bankers will hope people will clamour for their enslaving CBDC's which allows them to have negative interest rates based on social credit scores.
Short
by EmptyEternity
2
UJDAILY Not going to lie, there's no pattern I see. Just the assumption of the one I want to see, which is not a fact so it cannot be used as a confluence. Yet we broke 152.00 which if you zoom out will confirm that we are still in a very bullish trend. Impulse, Correction, Impulse : If you zoom in. 4H We formed a bear flag and broke it impulsively, breaking at 152.00. This is where our resistance was very strong. Had a flat flag, which was also broken, 153.40. Now we are currently in another correction structure (also the high price UJ has ever seen. 1H Touch of the bottom of symmetrical triangle 3 times, so we can assume the third touch of the top will be the break to continue to the upside. It has also formed a variation of an inverse H&S which shows the further strength of the demand to the upside. Trade Idea : Wait for the break of the triangle
Long
by Mhangwane1
Fed Higher-for-Longer Strategy: Strong Dollar SqueezeThe Fed's Higher-for-Longer Strategy: A Strong Dollar Squeezes Markets The Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy is pushing the U.S. dollar to its limits. Chair Jerome Powell's recent pronouncements leave little doubt: rate cuts won't be coming soon. This strong dollar is creating a ripple effect across global markets, leaving other central banks and investors struggling to keep pace. The "higher-for-longer" strategy refers to the Fed's intention to maintain elevated interest rates for a sustained period. This is a critical tool for combating inflation, which remains a top concern for the U.S. economy. By raising interest rates, the Fed discourages borrowing and investment, thereby dampening economic activity and ultimately slowing inflation. However, this approach comes at a cost. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and foreign imports cheaper. This can hurt American businesses competing overseas and widen the U.S. trade deficit. Additionally, a surging dollar makes it more expensive for other countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. The impact is already being felt globally. Here's a breakdown of the key challenges: • Market Squeeze: Higher U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors. This entices capital to flow out of emerging markets and other economies, putting downward pressure on their currencies and stock markets. These economies become more vulnerable to financial instability as capital flight weakens their local markets. • Central Bank Dilemma: Other central banks are caught in a bind. They may want to raise rates to combat inflation in their own economies, but doing so could further strengthen the dollar relative to their currencies. This exacerbates the problems mentioned above and makes it difficult for them to achieve their desired economic goals. • Debt Sustainability: Countries with large amounts of dollar-denominated debt face a growing burden. As the dollar strengthens, it becomes more expensive for them to service their debt, potentially leading to defaults and financial crises. Despite these challenges, the Fed is unlikely to deviate from its course anytime soon. Powell has emphasized the need to bring inflation under control, even if it means sacrificing some economic growth. This unwavering commitment to taming inflation strengthens the dollar further, potentially leading to a prolonged period of global economic strain. However, there are some potential mitigating factors: • Weakening Dollar: The dollar's strength may not be sustainable in the long run. If the Fed eventually signals a pause in rate hikes, or if inflation shows signs of receding, the dollar could weaken. This would provide some relief to other economies. • Global Cooperation: International cooperation between central banks could help to ease the pressure on global markets. By coordinating their policies, central banks could find a way to address inflation without creating excessive currency volatility. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term effects of the Fed's policy. While the strong dollar offers some advantages for the U.S. economy, the potential for global economic instability cannot be ignored. The Fed's navigation of this complex situation will be critical in ensuring a smooth landing for the U.S. and the global economy as a whole.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
NZDUSD: Oversold Market & Pullback 🇳🇿🇺🇸 As I predicted, NZDUSD dropped heavily after the release of Retail Sales data on Monday. Analysing a price action today, I see that the pair became heavily oversold. The price formed a falling wedge pattern and a narrow horizontal range within. Bullish violation of the resistances of the wedge and the range indicate a highly probable coming pullback. Targets: 0.5925 / 0.5936 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Betting on a Stronger Dollar Greenback Gets ExpensiveThe US dollar is soaring, and investors are scrambling to jump on the bandwagon. This surge in demand is reflected in the options market, where the cost of betting on further dollar appreciation has reached its highest point since November 2023. This trend highlights the growing confidence in the US economy's resilience, prompting a flight to safety in the greenback. Several factors are fueling the dollar's current strength. Firstly, the US economy continues to demonstrate surprising resilience in the face of global headwinds. Recent data, such as stronger-than-expected retail sales figures, has prompted investors to pare back bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This shift in expectations has bolstered the appeal of the dollar relative to other currencies. Secondly, the turmoil in global markets is driving investors towards safe-haven assets. Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation across the globe are creating uncertainty, pushing investors to seek the relative stability offered by the US dollar. The dollar's long-standing reputation as a reserve currency makes it a natural destination for these risk-averse investors. This surge in demand for the dollar is evident across the foreign exchange market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, has climbed to a five-month high. The dollar has already notched up impressive gains against major rivals like the yen, reaching a 34-year high, and strengthening significantly against the euro, pound, and several other currencies. This bullish sentiment towards the dollar is spilling over into the options market. Investors seeking to profit from a continued rise in the dollar's value are increasingly turning to call options. However, this increased demand comes at a cost. The premium, or the upfront cost, of buying these call options has risen significantly. This surge in option prices indicates that investors are willing to pay a higher price to secure their bets on a stronger dollar. The trend in the options market presents a mixed bag for investors. On the one hand, the rising cost of call options suggests that the market is anticipating further dollar appreciation. This could be a lucrative opportunity for those who correctly predict the dollar's trajectory. On the other hand, the higher premiums eat into potential profits, making successful bets on the dollar more challenging. Looking ahead, the future path of the dollar hinges on several key factors. The trajectory of the US economy, the actions of the Federal Reserve, and the evolution of global geopolitical and economic conditions will all play a role in determining the dollar's strength. Despite the uncertainties, the current trend suggests a continued period of dollar dominance. Investors, however, should carefully consider the increased costs of betting on the dollar in the options market and ensure their strategies account for these elevated premiums. This is a dynamic situation, and close monitoring of both economic data and market movements will be crucial for navigating the ever-evolving currency landscape.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln