SHORT ON GBPUSDGBPUSD has reached a key supply area and has given a change of character from up to down on the hour timeframe.
There is plenty imbalance/fvgs to the downside that I expect price to go and fill.
The Dollar Index is currently shifting to up from down, this should aid in this pair falling.
I will be selling GBPUSD to the next demand level for 300 pips.
Dollar
Massive storm hiting the crypto market soon!The Correlation Between SPX500 (Wall Street) & Crypto 📉📈
The relationship between SPX500 and crypto is not always stable. Sometimes they move in sync, like the Earth and Moon, and other times, they are completely decoupled. But rarely, we get an eclipse—a moment of total disconnection.
And guess what? That’s about to happen.
🔎 What’s Happening?
Looking at the charts, SPX500 had a massive rally last year, but while Wall Street boomed, crypto was bleeding. Most altcoins were slaughtered, and the TOTAL crypto market cap suffered.
But now, SPX500 is overbought, while crypto is oversold.
👉 This time, the decoupling will work in crypto’s favor!
💰 $2 Trillion in Sidelined Cash Ready to Flow In
Right now, about $2 trillion USD is sitting on the sidelines—money that institutional investors are hesitant to deploy due to market uncertainty. Many are keeping their funds in USD or foreign bonds instead of taking risks.
However, if you check my April/May forecast, we can see that:
✅ Crypto will be deeply oversold (confirmed by RSI & weekly MACD crossover).
✅ The US Dollar is weakening, forcing investors to move their money into other assets.
✅ SPX500 turning bearish = capital rotating into crypto.
🚀 The Perfect Storm for Crypto
📉 SPX500 bearish
💵 USD weakening
📈 Crypto bullish
This creates the perfect setup for rich investors to flood the crypto market with fresh liquidity.
💡 What does this mean for prices?
- CRYPTOCAP:BTC could double (100% gain).
- Altcoins could skyrocket (x10 to x100).
- This would finally trigger the altseason we’ve been waiting for—the parabolic move that happens once every four years.
📆 Timeline: April – June 2025
This move will be so explosive that it will eventually trigger a correction—possibly leading to a bear market. However, since crypto now moves in 6-month cycles, this correction should end by December 2025, setting up another leg up.
🏁 Final Thoughts
This kind of SPX500 & crypto decoupling is extremely rare, so positioning before the rotation starts is crucial.
⏳ Exact timing? Hard to say. But April/May looks like the moment when everything aligns.
🚨 DYOR as always—anything can happen to invalidate this idea.
Omnichart presents - NIFTY/(USDINR) long term trend Nifty's performance when compared to US dollar (vs its base currency i.e. Indian Rupee) broke above a long term since 2007 resistance through Dec 2020. As you can see it broke above the blue line in Dec 2020 and has been outperforming the dollar - to -rupee. What this means is that investing US dollars to buy Nifty started becoming more profitable in Dec 2020 vs just keeping the wealth in US Dollars (not converting to INR). This is in a long term uptrend - what this means is that investing US dollars in NIFTY long term is a profitable strategy.
The US Dollar Index is Decreasing - Positive for Cryptocurrency#DXY #Analysis
Description
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+ The Dollar Index has breached its support level and is now trading below it, moving toward the next support zone around $100.
+ This development is positive for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, as the US Dollar Index typically declines during a bull run.
+ In the long term, I anticipate further declines, potentially reaching the $90 range.
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SHORT ON EUR/USDEUR/USD has Reached a Major Resistance Area/Zone and is highly over brought.
The Dollar (DXY) is inverted with the Eur/usd negatively. The dollar is highly oversold and should rise from its major Demand zone.
This should cause the Euro to Fall from its resistance zone.
Dollar has news at 8:30 for Unemployment claims. If the news is somehow good for the dollar and causes it to rise, the Euro will have the potential of reaching about 400 pips over the next few days.
I will be selling EUR/USD to the demand level shown.
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 6, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pairing pressed the accelerator pedal and produced another strong session on Wednesday, rising a further 0.85% and marking a third consecutive session of solid gains.
Despite warnings that the UK economy as a whole is weakening, markets rose following Wednesday's Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy hearing. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said inflation is expected to rise moderately despite weaker growth figures, prompting markets to adjust expectations of a rate cut before the end of 2025. Rates markets now expect less than 50bp of overall interest rate cuts before the end of the year.
ADP's employment change for February showed just 77k new jobs, well below the forecast of 140k and March's 186k. Despite this, ADP results have not consistently correlated with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) since the reporting change in 2022, so the low reading is of little significance.
There is little of note on the UK side of the economic data list this week, so the key data for traders remains US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), which will be released this Friday.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2900, SL 1.2820, TP 1.3050
DXY will go first to 95 and then 86.Hi, another dollar index DXY chart today.
You can make many predictions about how the world will be in the future, I have all just cycles + structures and charts.
At this point, that opinion may not be in line with those policy statements by world leaders. But we're not here to discuss politics.
Best regards EXCAVO
Remaining Bullish on Goldyesterday was the Non Farm Payroll news. Price stalled till it was time for news then pulled back to fill in a H4 Gap. Now I'm looking for price to continue bullish. There is not Area that they did not fill in so I'm thinking they might just come out the gate running soon as we are inside of the killzone. waiting for the killzone is the key though.
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis XAU/USD Weekly Analysis with support and resistance levels tailored between $2,800 and $3,000:
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: March 3–7, 2025
🔹 Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a critical consolidation phase, trading between $2,800 and $3,000. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, including U.S. jobs data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical events.
🔹 Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support:
$2,835–$2,850: Critical support zone, aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.
$2,800: Psychological support and a key structural level, reinforced by the 50-day SMA.
Major Support (Downside Breach Scenario):
$2,765–$2,780: Long-term trendline support from the 2024 lows.
$2,735: Key swing low; a break below here could signal a deeper bearish trend.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance:
$2,900–$2,920: Key consolidation range high and near-term target for bullish momentum.
$2,950: Previous week’s high and a critical barrier to further gains.
Major Resistance (Upside Breakout Scenario):
$2,975–$3,000: Psychological resistance and the upper bound of the bullish channel.
$3,075: Fibonacci 127.2% extension and a potential breakout target.
🔹 Technical Scenario Breakdown:
Bullish Case (Breakout):
Trigger: Fed dovishness or USD weakness.
Action: Break above $2,950 confirms bullish momentum.
Targets: $2,975 (psychological level), then $3,075 (breakout extension).
Bearish Case (Reversal):
Trigger: Strong USD or risk-on sentiment.
Action: Breakdown below $2,835 signals bearish shift.
Targets: $2,800 (key support), then $2,765–$2,735 (trendline and swing low).
Neutral/Range-Bound:
Range: $2,835–$2,950.
Action: Fade extremes (buy dips near $2,835, sell rallies near $2,950).
🔹 Price Action Drivers During the Week:
U.S. Jobs Data (March 7):
Weak NFP (<150k jobs) → USD sell-off → Gold rallies toward $2,950–$3,000.
Strong NFP (>250k jobs) → USD strength → Gold tests $2,835–$2,800.
Fed Commentary (March 5):
Hawkish tone → Gold pressured below $2,835.
Dovish tone → Rally toward $2,950+.
Geopolitical Surprises:
Escalations → Safe-haven surge → Gold breaches $2,975–$3,000.
De-escalations → Profit-taking → Drop to $2,800.
🔹 Technical Tools to Monitor:
RSI (14-day): Overbought above 70 indicates pullback risk; oversold below 30 signals potential rebound.
MACD: Bullish crossover above the zero line strengthens upward bias.
Volume: Confirm breakouts above $2,950 with rising volume.
📈 Summary:
Support: $2,835–$2,850 (critical), $2,800 (structural), $2,765–$2,735 (trendline).
Resistance: $2,900–$2,920 (immediate), $2,950 (key breakout), $2,975–$3,000 (psychological).
Catalysts: U.S. data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical factors remain key drivers.
DXY Dollar Index OutlookThis is my current Elliott Wave count for the DXY Dollar index. I have a couple of variations which I will share but this one sees a decline starting with a leading diagonal in red wave 1 which is close to completion. May see a pull back in red 2 before a strong move lower in 3. The alternative is a nesting 1,2,1,2. If that's the case then a strong decline could continue from here.
USDJPY - Potential upside from here?USD/JPY is currently consolidating within a range after a sharp downtrend from the 159.00 level. The price has established support around 148.50-149.00, forming a clear pattern. We're now waiting for a decisive break above the current consolidation area, which would signal renewed bullish momentum.
Once we see this breakout, expect a minor retracement to retest the broken resistance as new support – this will be our key buying opportunity. With the descending trendline already broken and the forecast indicating potential upside to the 154.00 area, traders should focus on buy positions following this retracement, with stops below the support zone.
LONG ON NZD/USDNZD/USD is giving nice uptrend structure from the higher TF.
Currently it has pulled back to a key support area and is looking good for a rise.
Dollar (DXY) is overall bearish and currently falling. (This has a inverse correlation with XXX/USD pairs)
I will be buying NZD/USD to the next resistance level / previous high for about 150-200 pips.
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 3, 2025 GBPUSDThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, started the new week on a weak note and has already cancelled out most of Friday's gains to more than a one-week high.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to post relative gains amid expectations of a less aggressive easing policy from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, concerns over US President Donald Trump's retaliatory tariffs and their impact on the UK economy may keep GBP bulls away from new bets. In addition, geopolitical risks could limit deeper USD losses and limit GBP/USD gains.
Meanwhile, signs that the disinflation process in the US has stalled, reinforcing the case for the Fed to take a wait-and-see approach to future interest rate cuts, could also serve as a tailwind for the USD. This could help to further contain GBP/USD and warrant some caution before positioning for a resumption of the recent uptrend from levels below 1.2100, or the yearly low reached on 13 January.
The main focus will be on the closely watched monthly US employment data on Friday. The widely-reported Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure will shape expectations on the path of the Fed rate cut and drive demand for the dollar in the near term.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2610, SL 1.2560, TP 1.2690
EURUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
With the Friday's turmoil in the White House,
EURUSD went down sharply.
The price broke and closed below a significant daily support.
It is a strong event that increases the probabilities that the market
will continue going lower.
Next support will be 1.032
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Trump Pump. Trump Dump. Trading Family,
We had our Trump pump. Now, we are seeing a Trump dump. Tariffs and other geopolitical events are causing market uncertainty. Let's take a look at our charts to find out how much more pain we are in for. And, a positive sign. Smaller cap altcoins and many memecoins appear to be holding strong!
✌️ Stew