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DXY Continues bullish momentum from 108.600For the DXY, I anticipate a corrective move, as the price has recently broken structure to the upside. This break has created new demand zones, which we can expect to act as strong support, allowing bullish momentum to continue. This week, my focus will be on the 8-hour demand zone around 108.600. If the price mitigates this zone, I’ll look for lower time-frame confirmation to enter a trade. My target will be the 8-hour supply zone above, where I anticipate some bearish pressure may emerge. However, if the price moves lower and breaches the 8-hour demand zone, I’ll shift my attention to the extreme 5-hour demand zone for a potential buying opportunity, aligning with the overall bullish trend. Let’s stay sharp and make the most of this week. Let’s crush Q1!
TVC:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
1
EURUSD 5/1/25Heading into the First Trading Week of the Year We’re ready to dominate as always, with Orion leading the way and providing a clear bias. This week, we continue with our bearish outlook, looking to trade from the highs into the lows outlined here, with the target clearly defined. Before diving in headfirst, let’s cover a few key points: There’s currently a large gap between the highs and the current price. Based on this, we need to be mindful of the following scenarios: A short-term high could form before reaching the main highs shown here. A new low might be created, giving us an additional target low. These scenarios suggest we could see some form of manipulation before a move higher. For example, the price could create new highs, sweep them, and then form a new short-term low. While this wouldn’t invalidate the larger bearish move, it could shake out many lower time frame traders. Please also take note of the heavy liquid we have stored above the current highs we are looking at. Trade safe and stick to your plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
The Truth About Brazil’s Economy: Is the Real Near R$6.63?It’s becoming clear that the market is no longer buying into the government’s optimistic narrative. The promise to eliminate the fiscal deficit, for example, has already lost momentum. What the market sees, in practice, is a series of populist measures and little fiscal responsibility. The exchange rate reflects this reality. The real, already weakened, remains highly vulnerable to any internal shocks — whether it's political noise or disappointing economic data. 📉 Why do I believe the dollar could reach R$ 6.63? 1️⃣ Fiscal Situation Weighs Heavily Brazil is spending more than it collects, and public accounts remain under pressure. The market no longer believes that the government will achieve balance without significant spending cuts. Promises alone don’t pay the bills — and anyone involved in currency trading knows that. 2️⃣ The Dollar Remains Strong Abroad In the U.S., the Federal Reserve continues its firm stance on fighting inflation. This strengthens the dollar globally, which in turn puts additional pressure on emerging market currencies — and the real is no exception. 3️⃣ Weak Economic Growth Without a Solid Foundation Even with the growth Brazil has seen, it becomes irrelevant when viewed in the context of irresponsible fiscal management. Instead of being celebrated, this growth raises questions about its sustainability. The market knows that growth without structural adjustments is unsustainable — and Brazil hasn’t shown any commitment to addressing its weaknesses. The increase in GDP ends up overshadowed by populist measures and a lack of spending cuts. Without fiscal balance, growth turns into a house of cards that collapses at the first sign of instability. For investors, the risk of holding positions in the real remains high, especially as necessary reforms continue to be postponed. The Result? The market remains cautious, pricing in uncertainty and distrust. 📢 Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here are for informational purposes only and reflect personal market analyses. They do not constitute investment advice. The currency market is volatile and carries significant risks. Always consider your investor profile and seek professional guidance before making any financial decisions.
Long
by Igor-Silva
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)I am expecting a ‘complex correction’ of the Elliott Wave Theory, to complete the correction on Gold. So a 5 Sub-Wave pattern (A,B,C,D,E). This correction should push the price down towards $2,240 roughly. We can then look to start buying Gold again at cheaper prices. At the most extreme, if the bigger institutional firms want to really shake people out of buying Gold before it creates new high’s towards $3,200+, I would not rule out the possibility of price dropping towards $1,960 as an extreme target.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
The Relationship Between Dollar Dominance, Debt, and Deficits The US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency grants the United States a unique set of economic advantages and challenges. This "exorbitant privilege," as it's often called, significantly influences the nation's ability to manage its debt and deficits. Understanding this complex relationship is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the global financial system and the US economy's position within it. Dollar Dominance: A Foundation of Economic Power The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency means that it is widely held by central banks, international institutions, and businesses worldwide. This widespread acceptance creates consistent demand for dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury bonds. This demand is a key factor in allowing the US government to finance its debt at relatively low-interest rates. If the US were to borrow in another currency, or if global demand for its debt were significantly lower, the cost of borrowing would likely increase, making it more expensive to finance government spending. This dominance also simplifies international trade for US businesses. Because the dollar is the standard currency for many global transactions, US companies can conduct business with reduced exchange rate risks and transaction costs. This ease of trade strengthens the US position in the global economy and contributes to its overall economic power. Debt and Deficits: The Fiscal Realities Government debt represents the accumulation of past budget deficits. A budget deficit occurs when government spending exceeds its revenue in a given fiscal year. These deficits require the government to borrow money, primarily by issuing Treasury bonds, which then contribute to the overall national debt. While deficits can be used strategically to stimulate the economy during downturns or to fund essential public services, persistent and large deficits can lead to a growing national debt. A high debt level can have several potential consequences, including higher interest payments on the debt, reduced fiscal flexibility to respond to future economic crises, and potential inflationary pressures. The Interplay: Dollar Dominance and Fiscal Policy The relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is complex and multifaceted. The ability to borrow at lower costs due to the dollar's reserve currency status can, in some ways, lessen the immediate pressure to address budget imbalances. The lower interest rates make it less painful in the short term to finance deficits, potentially leading to a greater accumulation of debt over time. However, it's crucial to understand that dollar dominance does not directly cause deficits. Deficits are a result of fiscal policy decisions—specifically, decisions about government spending and taxation. Dollar dominance merely affects the cost of financing those decisions. A government could run deficits regardless of its currency's global status, but the financial implications would likely be significantly different. One could argue that the "exorbitant privilege" afforded by dollar dominance creates a moral hazard. Knowing that borrowing costs are relatively low could incentivize policymakers to engage in more expansive fiscal policies than they might otherwise pursue. This can lead to a situation where the long-term consequences of debt accumulation are downplayed in favor of short-term political or economic gains. Potential Challenges to Dollar Dominance While the dollar has maintained its dominant position for decades, several factors could potentially challenge its future status. The rise of other economic powers, the development of alternative reserve currencies, and shifts in global trade patterns are all potential threats. For example, the increasing economic influence of countries like China has led to discussions about the potential for the renminbi to become a more prominent player in the global financial system. However, for a currency to achieve reserve status, it requires deep and liquid financial markets, strong institutions, and widespread trust in the issuing country's economic and political stability. These are factors that have contributed to the dollar's strength and are not easily replicated. Furthermore, the emergence of new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies and digital payment systems, could potentially disrupt traditional financial flows and challenge the existing currency hierarchy. However, these technologies are still relatively new and face regulatory and adoption hurdles before they could pose a significant threat to the dollar's dominance. Maintaining the Dollar's Strength Maintaining the dollar's strength and its reserve currency status is a complex undertaking. It requires a combination of sound economic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to maintaining open and transparent financial markets. Sustainable fiscal policies are essential. While dollar dominance provides some flexibility, persistently large deficits and a rapidly growing national debt could eventually erode confidence in the dollar and its long-term value. This could lead to a decrease in demand for dollar-denominated assets, potentially increasing borrowing costs and weakening the dollar's global position. In conclusion, the relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is a critical aspect of the US and global economies. While the dollar's reserve currency status provides significant advantages in financing government spending and facilitating international trade, it also presents challenges in managing fiscal policy. Maintaining the dollar's strength requires a balanced approach that prioritizes sound economic management and recognizes the complex interplay between these crucial economic factors.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 26, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD currency pair was not traded on Wednesday due to the closure of the Forex market. On the weekly timeframe, the pound demonstrates similar dynamics to the euro. The differences lie in the strength of the movements, reflecting the different stability of the euro and the pound. However, the general trend is set by the growth of the US dollar, which has been strengthening for 16 years. This confirms that it is the dollar that is driving the market, not the weakness of the euro or pound. Over the past 16 years, the euro has depreciated 1.55 times and the pound 1.69 times. The pound's faster fall is due to the UK's economic problems. The pound has recovered more strongly than the euro over the past two years, but this movement remains a correction within a global downtrend. The fall in the British currency is likely to continue. If the global trend is not completed, the pound could fall to the 1.18 level in 2025 or even below this parity. The completion of a 16-year trend requires significant catalysts, which have not yet been seen. The main driving force for the pair remains economic data from the US, while the British Pound continues to be under pressure due to weak macroeconomic data and political instability in the UK. Investors should keep an eye on news related to the Fed's monetary policy and interest rate expectations. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 23, 2024 USDJPYDoubts about the Bank of Japan's rate hike plan and widening yield differential between the US and Japan put pressure on the yen. Traders are expecting a short-term boost from the US consumer confidence index, which will be released on Monday. The Japanese yen (JPY) starts the new week on a softer note and remains a short distance from the five-month low reached on Friday against its U.S. counterpart. Doubts over when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again have proven to be a key factor weighing on the JPY. In addition, the recent widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan, backed by the Federal Reserve's (BoJ) tightening stance, is undermining the low-yielding JPY. Added to this, the overall positive tone in equity markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, strong inflation data released in Japan on Friday left room for a potential BoJ rate hike in January or March. This, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, did not help the USD/JPY pair to realize upside potential in the Asian session in the absence of any fundamental catalyst. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 156.00, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 20, 2024 GBPUSDThe Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound. The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%. The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading. As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by stewdamus
2
DXY - Bullish Wave ContinuesWe analysed DXY / Dollar few days back and it was highlighting a potential break above. This hsa been confirmed and the price now targets above Fib levels. Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime. For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
TVC:DXYLong
by MarketsPOV
Mastering AUDUSD: Key Trading Zones Revealed for Optimal EntriesGreetings, traders! Welcome to this AUDUSDmarket analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities. In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries. If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas. Trade safely Trader Leo
Short
by BTM-LEO
15