XAUUSD Technical Analysis 1st March 2024 1h chart– Thursday Daily candle closed extremely Bullish around 2044.500 breaking above recent Daily Resistance. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2050.800 targeting 4h Resistance around 2056.900 and Weekly Resistance around 2062.900. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2041.500 targeting 4h Support around 2034.500 and 30min Support around 2028.200. High Impact News ahead of the New York session for the US Dollar which may create volatility in the market.
Dollar
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 29th February 2024 1h chart– Wednesday Daily candle closed Bullish within recent Daily Range as price continue to consolidate. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2038.100 targeting previous Weekly Support formed on 8th January 2024 around 2045.400 and 1h previous Support formed on 2nd February 2024 around 2052.500. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2030.300 targeting Daily Support formed around 2024.300 and 4h Support around 2017.000. The High Impact News ahead of the New York session for Thursday might be the token for price to break out of the current Daily / 4h range.
DXY Head and Shoulder Pattern 4HDXY Head and Shoulder Pattern 4H
Possible formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe.
Pattern is a reversal pattern, could possibly break the 4H trendline to continue the daily timeframe downtrend. Would be looking for shorts from the 50% to 61.8% Fib levels.
Further confluence is the RSI showing now entering overbought levels on the 4H timeframe.
If price breaks past the previous lower high on the 4H timeframe, trade will become invalid.
Like and comment if you agree.
EURUSD: Looking to resume downtrendThis current bullish move looks to be running its course, resembling a bull flag.
Will be waiting for a confirmation on LTF's to get in short, hopefully before the big news on Friday, which I expect to confirm interest rates staying as they are for longer, and a hawkish fed.
GBPUSD: Expecting a drop from hereEven though sterling has found recent resilience, we are in a long-term down trend.
I believe the recent rally must end, fundamentally the pound is much weaker than the dollar, the UK is in recession and the US looks likely to avoid one.
The FED will start cutting rates, but I believe the BoE will act sooner (or at the same time) because it doesn't have the grace of a strong economy.
On the LTF's we're at the top of this current dynamic rising range, but I think we may see a break of the lower boundary, and if we do this will be the resumption of the downtrend.
The U.S. Dollar Maintains DominanceAsian markets approached Wednesday cautiously in anticipation of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report, which holds potential to influence the Federal Reserve's timeline for implementing monetary easing. Concurrently, the New Zealand dollar experienced a significant decline following the central bank's softened stance on interest rates.
New Zealand's central bank maintained the cash rate at 5.5%, emphasizing that prior rate hikes had mitigated inflationary pressures, albeit acknowledging reduced prospects for further rate increases. Consequently, the kiwi weakened to $0.61235, marking a 0.75% decline for the day.
Charu Chanana, Saxo's head of currency strategy, noted surprise among investors regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's reluctance to pursue additional rate hikes, though she emphasized the New Zealand dollar still presents a favorable carry amidst low volatility.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen held steadfast around the psychologically significant level of 150 per dollar, with the Nikkei experiencing a 0.2% decline for the day after reaching new record highs earlier in the week.
In broader Asian markets, MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan retreated slightly by 0.11%, hovering near a seven-month peak. Chinese stocks demonstrated mixed performance, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declining by 0.31% while China's CSI300 blue-chip index advanced by 0.46%.
Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for January, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Expectations suggest a 0.3% monthly increase in January, slightly higher than December's 0.2% uptick.
Recent robust economic indicators coupled with persistent inflationary pressures have led traders to significantly revise down their expectations for aggressive early interest rate cuts by the Fed. The easing cycle is now anticipated to commence in June, compared to initial expectations for March, with markets now pricing in 77 basis points of cuts for the year, down from 150 bps projected earlier.
Yuting Shao, macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, highlighted the significance of individual data releases for influencing the Fed's data-dependent approach and impacting investor sentiment.
In addition to the PCE index, other key data releases this week include the second estimate of gross domestic product, jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, all of which will contribute to shaping expectations regarding Fed policy.
Federal Reserve officials have recently cautioned against premature rate cuts, with Governor Michelle Bowman emphasizing potential upside risks to inflation that could impede progress or even lead to a resurgence of inflationary pressures.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar experienced minor fluctuations following data indicating consumer price inflation remained at a two-year low in January, reinforcing expectations that interest rates are unlikely to rise further. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, recorded a marginal 0.01% increase.
In commodities markets, U.S. crude declined by 0.41% to $78.55 per barrel, and Brent crude stood at $83.31, down 0.41% for the day, as the possibility of a delayed U.S. rate-cutting cycle offset the positive impact of discussions regarding potential extensions to production cuts by OPEC+.
Spot gold edged up by 0.1% to $2,030.83 an ounce.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 28th February 2024 1h chart– Tuesday Daily candle close weak Bearish rejecting the upside and respecting recent Daily Resistance. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2038.100 targeting previous Weekly Support formed on 8th January 2024 around 2045.400 and 1h previous Support formed on 2nd February 2024 around 2052.500. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2027.500 targeting 1h previous Support formed on 21st February 2024 around 2020.700 and 4h Support formed around 2015.700. As price ranged within the 4h timeframe during this week.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 27th February 2024 1h chart– Monday Daily candle closed Bearish forming Daily Resistance at 2035.300. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2035.200 targeting 1h Resistance at 2041.000 and Weekly Resistance formed around 2049.200. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2026.800 targeting 1h previous Support formed at 2020.700 and 4h Support around 2015.700. High Impact News ahead of the New York session for the US Dollar.
Eur/Usd Top Down Analysis Feb 24'Eur/Usd! The reaction off 1.08927 was quite dramatic last thursday and friday.
Intro/Monthly TF 0:0
Weekly Timeframe 4:05
Daily timeframe 6:29
4hr timeframe 9:29
1Hr timeframe 11:33
Price has retraced and since dipped into a 4hr zone 1.08011. It bounced here on friday and the price action consolidated after that. It is possible that we may observe more sideways movement before another continuation. I liken a continuation for buyers because of sentiment moving out of last week due to cad news. It is quite normal to see a reaction off a daily zone like we observed on thursday and friday and it could very well be just a pullback in an uptrend. Caution however!
Not Financial Advice.
Education Purposes Only.
DOLLAR index The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a relative measure of the U.S. dollars (USD) strength against a basket of six currencies,
including the Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Korner, and Swiss Franc.
The index was created in 1973, but remains useful to this day.
The DXY pair is trading with bearish tone and is expected to head lower towards 103.25 and 102.70
102.70 is a gap support zone
104.30-104.20 could act as resistance
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 26th February 2024 1h chart– Previous Weekly candle closed strong Bullish around 2035.400 forming Weekly Support around 2013.200, Friday Daily candle closed Bullish within Daily Resistance formed back on Wednesday 7th February this year. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2041.700 targeting previous 1h Support formed on 1st February at 2046.200 and previous 4h Range formed around 2052.600. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2033.300 targeting 30min Support around 2027.000 and 1h previous Support around 2020.700. Despite the Weekly and last Daily candle closing Bullish there is a high probability for price to reject the 2050s / 2052s range as price previously ranged around those levels.
EURUSD, DOLLAR FALLING??This is a EURO / DOLLAR chart, We are currently neutral in-terms direction bias for this week. Non-Farm Payroll definitely will be the influential factor to our setup.
Setup Breakdown :
WEEKLY
Price is in the Discount in terms of the weekly range and we have seen the first bullish candlestick in the last 5-6 months.
Note : The Premium - Discount zones further left.
Price in the weekly has traded into the Bullish Orderblock and the 2 weeks ago low has been taken out, hence the bullish candlestick for last week's trading.
DAILY
We have a Swing Low After or during a Turtle Soup.
Accumulation and price trading down to a weekly PD Array + taking out stops, makes it more possible to see a AMD Trade .
two large down candles = Orderblock from the weekly, we measured half of the two last down candles and we identified a CE. Below that we have a Balanced Priced Range/ Bullish FVG.
Price inefficiency (notice the latest continuous up candles, well they have created a price inefficiency, Price needs balance. [Hence our speculation of the EU shorting towards our Bullish/ Daily Discount Arrays
We looking to trade towards the Balanced Price Range (BRP) which is inside the Orderblock
SETUP Expectations
Bullish conditions
Price seeks a PD Array to take out the Buy side liquidity laying above, trading to the Weekly Bearish Orderblock .
Thus confirming our AMD
The BRP / +OB / +FVG are our Points of interest, we look to initiate the longs there, just switch to a 15 Minutes or and look for a valid entry between London Killzone / New York Killzone.
There's a high possibility that this is a NFP Setup
We now operating as Proff_InvestsZA, which is actively throughout our social media incase you have questions you wanna ask.
DISCLAIMER :
Before using this Tradingview account setups, please make sure that you note the following important information:
Do Your Own Research (DYOR)
Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only.
It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.
You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, or independently research and verify,
any information that you find on our Website and wish to rely upon, whether for the purpose of making an investment decision or otherwise.
No Investment Advice
Our Tradingview account is a financial data and news portal, discussion forum and content aggregator.
Circle Forex Institution (Proff InvestsZA) is not a broker/dealer, we are not an investment advisor,
we have no access to non-public information about publicly traded companies,
and this is not a place for the giving or receiving of financial advice, advice concerning investment decisions or tax or legal advice.
We are not regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
We are an educational forum for analysing, learning & discussing general and generic information related to stocks, investments and strategies.
No content on the site constitutes - or should be understood as constituting - a recommendation to enter in any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in our site content.
We do not provide personalised recommendations or views as to whether a stock or investment approach is suited to the financial needs of a specific individual.
Forex weekly outlookWeekly outlook TVC:DXY NASDAQ:EU $gu
The #DOLLAR chart does not look clear to me. Last week we had the 1W fvg as DOL and it just worked perfectly.
But the way we have reacted to the 1W fvg suggests we get at least a short term rise on $dxy.
Until we get a decisive close below the 1W +fvg or above the 1D -ifvg, nothing is clear.
I will be patient and start trading from Tuesday. All weekdays look promising since they have high impact TVC:DXY news. Will update again after Monday daily close.
CADUSD: Looking very bearish to meI'm expecting to see USD strength through March with a Hawkish Fed that has strength ibn their economy, compared to all other crosses.
Looking at the 4hr chart I'm seeing a couple of bearish engulfing candles and therefor looking for a short in an LTF.
There is very choppy water between 0.735 and 0.7366 so we may see a lot of indecision here but I'm overall bearish and expect the drop down to major support.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 23rd February 2024 1h chart– Thursday Daily candle closed weak Bearish forming Daily Resistance and rejecting Daily Resistance formed on 7th February around 2035s. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2031.100 targeting Daily Resistance at 2036.000 and 1h Resistance at 2042.600. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2021.100 targeting 4h Strong Support at 2016.900 and next 1h Strong Support around 2011.700. The Buys and Sells targets remained the same for 3rd day this week as price still ranging on the 4h timeframe within the No Trade Zone we’ve had in place.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 22nd February 2024 1h chart– Wednesday Daily candle closed weak Bullish as price keeps on consolidating on the 4h timeframe. I’ll be looking for potential Buys above 2031.000 targeting Daily Resistance at 2036.000 and 1h Resistance around 2042.600. I’ll be looking for potential Sells below 2021.900 targeting 4h Strong Support around 2016.900 and 1h Strong Support around 2011.700. The analysis kept almost the same as the one posted yesterday as price consolidated within the No Trade Zone identified previously.