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Dollar

Why Has the USD Been Falling?Dollar has lost value against many currencies since January. Why is that? The Dollar’s decline didn’t start with the recent ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. In fact, it has been gradually weakening since the 1970s. U.S. Treasury Futures & Options Ticker: 6E Minimum fluctuation: 0.000050 per Euro increment = $6.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME:6S1!Short
by konhow
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Bullish Setup: Buy Zone to Target Levels Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe. Key points: Support Zone: Strong support is identified in the yellow zone around 3,290–3,293, where price has bounced multiple times. Buy Zone: Market is currently in a potential buy zone just above support, signaling a possible long entry. Targets: 1st target: Around 3,368 2nd target: Around 3,419 All-Time High: Marked as a potential long-term resistance above 3,500. Outlook: If price respects the support and buy zone, the market may rally toward the 1st and 2nd targets. Watch for bullish confirmation before entering.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Robert055
Heading into pullback resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 100.27 1st Support: 98.32 1st Resistance: 101.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
$DXY bullish from 96-98, massive bull flagDespite everyone calling for the death of the dollar, I think the dollar is in the process of bottoming and then will head higher. Macron called for the Euro to replace the dollar (which is laughable) and likely marks a bottom. Either we bounce here, or I could see the possibility of one more spike low down to the ~96 support level, but should we see a reaction there, it sets up a massive move higher in the dollar. As you can see on the chart, we've been correcting inside of a bull flag, if we can form a low around $96-98, we will reverse and head higher to break the flag to the upside. Upside targets on the chart. I think the bull market in the dollar is just starting, don't let the news scare you out of accumulating dollars over other fiat currencies.
TVC:DXYLong
by benjihyam
US30Anyone Bearish or Bullish, say something I willl be aggressively Bullish if US30 breaks the 40000.00 key level and get a clear retest, supporting it to go higher, to 42020.00 key level. >US30 failed to break 37864.46 key level to continue selling, now 37864.46 is supporting US30 to go higher. >US30 is supported by the trend line. But if US30 fails to break the 40000.00 key level. I will be going with the market structure, as US30 is been selling. But will be aggressive selling if US30 trade below 37864.46 key level Update will be given
FX:US30
by SnowIQ
xauusd what is happening?Gold (XAU/USD) Market Overview – April 22, 2025 🧨 Geopolitical & Trade Tensions Ongoing US-China trade disputes and President Trump’s tariff policies continue to amplify uncertainty. Market chatter on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) reflects investor anxiety over potential global trade disruptions, increasing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. 💵 US Dollar Dynamics The US dollar remains weak, partly due to Trump’s continued criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his calls for rate cuts. A weaker dollar supports gold by making it more attractive to international investors. 🏦 Institutional & Central Bank Demand Strong ETF inflows: Over 23 tonnes added in a single session, suggesting large-scale accumulation. Central banks, particularly China, continue adding gold to reserves—contributing to bullish long-term sentiment. 🧯 Macro Environment Persistent inflation concerns and dovish central bank policies are reinforcing gold's status as an inflation hedge. Markets await US retail sales data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, which could introduce volatility or direction. 📊 Technical Analysis of XAU/USD @ $3,424 📈 Trend & Chart Structure Gold is trading in a well-defined ascending channel, with a recent breakout above $3,400 confirming bullish structure. However, the presence of a rising wedge pattern and overbought conditions warns of a potential short-term correction. 🔐 Key Support & Resistance Levels Type Level Notes Support 1 $3,400 Psychological level & prior breakout point Support 2 $3,320–$3,325 Fibonacci zone and fair value gap Support 3 $3,296–$3,284 April 18 low; deeper support Resistance 1 $3,445 Immediate resistance Resistance 2 $3,500 All-time high; psychological milestone Long-term $3,550–$3,637 Medium-term upside targets 📟 Indicators & Volume Analysis RSI: >70 on short-term charts → Overbought, suggesting risk of pullback. MACD: Bullish crossover intact, but declining momentum is a caution flag. Moving Averages: Price is well above the 30-EMA ($3,265) and 200-EMA ($3,163) — strongly bullish. Volume: Recent rally on declining volume = possible divergence, implying weakening buying strength. 📌 Trading Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case If XAU/USD holds above $3,400 and breaks $3,445, next targets = $3,500 → $3,550 → $3,600. Entry: Wait for a pullback to $3,400–$3,405 or bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, rising volume). Stop Loss: Below $3,390 Rationale: Strong uptrend + safe-haven flows + USD weakness = sustained bullish bias. 🚫 Bearish Case If price breaks below $3,400 with momentum, correction toward $3,325 or $3,296 is likely. Entry: Below $3,400 after confirmation (e.g., high-volume bearish candle) Stop Loss: Above $3,430 Rationale: Overbought RSI + volume divergence → short-term profit-taking or macro catalyst risk. 📈 Volatility Note Recent daily swings around 2.25% — use tight stop-losses and risk/reward ≥ 1:2. 📅 Key Events to Watch US Retail Sales Data Fed Chair Powell’s Speech US-China trade news Dollar index (DXY) movement 📅 Medium-Term Outlook (1–3 Months) Projected move toward $3,600+ remains valid due to: Global uncertainty Persistent inflation Central bank buying Key swing support: $3,137 Upside resistance: $3,500 → $3,600 ⚠️ Risks & Reversals Risk Factor Impact on Gold US-China Trade Deal ↓ Demand (safe-haven outflows) Strong US Economic Data ↑ Dollar → ↓ Gold Hawkish Fed Comments ↓ Gold Continued Overbought Status Pullback/Cool-off likely 🎯 Conclusion Gold (XAU/USD) is in a strong long-term uptrend, currently consolidating near $3,424. While bullish fundamentals support a move toward $3,500–$3,600, technical overbought signals and volume divergence suggest caution in the short term. #xauusd #gold #usd #tariff #tradingview
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
5
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown. Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time. It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market. The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending). Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities. What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years. All the best, Tim April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
TVC:DXYShort
by timwest
5