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XAUUSD ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEKXAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Analysis: February 17 – Febrauary 25, 2025 This analysis provides an in-depth evaluation of gold’s potential trajectory over the specified period, integrating fundamental drivers, technical indicators, and expert forecasts. Key factors influencing gold include geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, and technical patterns. 1. Fundamental Drivers A. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration’s recent tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods) have amplified global trade risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Middle East and China Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in China’s economy (evidenced by a decline in the Caixin PMI) are further driving investors toward gold. B. Monetary Policy and Inflation Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and dovish stances from the ECB and BoE are weakening fiat currencies, boosting gold prices. Inflation Hedge: Persistent inflation, driven by tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, enhances gold’s appeal. Analysts caution that U.S. inflation could exceed targets, forcing the Fed to reverse rate cuts, which may temporarily support the USD but ultimately favor gold. C. Central Bank Demand Central banks, notably China’s PBOC, are accumulating gold reserves to diversify away from the USD, creating structural demand. 2. Technical Analysis A. Short-Term Signals (February–March) Momentum Indicators: The RSI (26.05) and Stochastic Oscillator (14.5) signal oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound. Key Levels: Support: $2,830 (February 10 analysis) and $2,720 (ascending channel lower boundary). Resistance: $2,887 (immediate target) and $2,900 (psychological barrier). 2. Key Technical Levels Support Levels: Immediate Support: $2,880 – This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally. Critical Support: $2,850 – Represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since late 2024. Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: $2,920 – A breach could trigger bullish momentum toward higher targets. Key Resistance: $2,959 – The upper boundary of the channel and a major psychological level. 3. Momentum Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory. Moving Averages (MA): 50-Day MA: Positioned at $2,910, offering dynamic support. 200-Day MA: Located at $2,780, signaling long-term strength. Stochastic Oscillator: Signals potential upside as it exits oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart. 4. Chart Patterns and Trends Ascending Channel: Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel, maintaining a bullish structure. Bullish Flag Formation: On the daily chart, a bullish flag suggests a potential breakout if prices sustain above $2,920. Candlestick Signals: Last Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern highlights strong buying interest. 5. Scenarios for the Week Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $2,920 could target $2,965 and $3,000. Momentum indicators support further upside if geopolitical tensions persist. Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold $2,880 may lead to a decline toward $2,850. Profit-taking or USD strength could pressure gold, particularly if U.S. economic data surprises positively. Bullish Targets/ Resistance 2890 2906 2928 2934 2959 2972 2987 3023 Bearish/Support 2872 2857 2841 2807 2781
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSDU.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war. On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR). Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY - Retesting the lowThe USD/JPY currency pair has shown a significant downward trend since mid-January 2025, falling from peaks around 158.50 to current levels near 151.77. The price action has been characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, with notable resistance forming around the 156.00 level during late January and early February. The technical analysis suggests further bearish momentum, with a red arrow indicating a potential continuation of the downward movement toward the 150.89 support level. This bearish outlook is reinforced by the pair's inability to maintain gains above 155.00 in recent trading sessions, and the current price structure shows limited signs of reversal potential in the near term.
Short
by financialflagship
Silver Faces Resistance After Recent RallySilver remained above $32 per ounce on Sunday after recent volatility, supported by a weaker dollar on soft US economic data and easing global trade war concerns. On Friday, silver hit a three-month high, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in electrification and manufacturing. Reports showed China added 357 gigawatts of solar and wind power in 2024, boosting industrial silver use. Meanwhile, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp pledged INR 1 trillion for renewable energy, and Indonesia aims to add 17 gigawatts of solar capacity. Key resistance is at 33.15, with further levels at 33.80 and 34.50. Support stands at 31.40, followed by 30.90 and 30.20.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Gold Extends Gains as Trade War Fears MountGold climbed above $2,900 per ounce, extending its gains for a second day as fears of a global trade war fueled demand. Concerns over President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs added to market uncertainty, increasing gold’s appeal. However, hawkish Fed comments capped further gains. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated caution on rate cuts due to inflation risks, while Governor Christopher Waller suggested delaying reductions until inflation eases. Investors now await Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes for more policy insights. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist as markets watch for updates on a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Key resistance levels are at $2,949, $2,975, and $3,000. Support is at $2,880, with further levels at $2,830 and $2,760.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
GBP/USD Rises on Strong UK GDPGBP/USD climbed to 1.2595 in early Asian trading on Sunday, driven by strong UK GDP data and weaker US retail sales. January retail sales dropped 0.9%, the steepest decline in nearly two years, after a revised 0.7% rise in December, far below the expected 0.1% dip. However, year-over-year sales grew by 4.2%. Meanwhile, the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in Q4 2024, beating forecasts and strengthening the Pound. Key resistance is at 1.2600, with further levels at 1.2650 and 1.2700. Support stands at 1.2340, followed by 1.2265 and 1.2100.
by ChartMage
Fed Talk Lifts Dollar, EUR/USD Under PressureEUR/USD hovers around 1.0455, while the dollar index rebounded to 107 on Tuesday, snapping a three-day losing streak. The recovery followed remarks from Federal Reserve officials signaling a pause in rate cuts to focus on inflation control. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested holding off on cuts unless inflation trends match 2024 levels, while Governor Michelle Bowman stressed the need for more evidence before easing policy. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also supported maintaining current rates amid economic strength. Markets now await this week’s FOMC minutes for further rate guidance. Last week, the dollar weakened due to mixed US economic data and reduced tariff concerns. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that currency manipulation is now a key factor in trade strategy. Technically, resistance stands at 1.0515, with further barriers at 1.0600 and 1.0650. Support lies at 1.0350, followed by 1.0275 and 1.0220.
by ChartMage
Yen Dips After Strong Japan GDP DataThe Japanese yen slipped to around 151.8 per dollar, reversing a three-day rally as the dollar gained strength after Fed officials signaled reluctance to cut rates due to inflation concerns. Japan’s Q4 GDP grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.4% and beating the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.8%, aligning with expectations and improving from 1.7% in Q3. These figures support a more hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan, though uncertainty remains over a potential rate hike in March, with further increases expected later this year. Technically, resistance is at 154.90, with further levels at 156.00 and 157.00. Support stands at 151.25, followed by 149.20 and 147.10.
by ChartMage
EURUSD - what to expect?Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels . Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame and following our original analysis posted on February 4th (check image below). Now after we broke to the upside we are waiting to make a pullback on the pair (based on the H4 time-frame). As of now we are sitting on our hands and patiently waiting on the pullback to happen or possible reverses and join the uptrend. TVC:EXY has seen some strength last week regardless of the positive data for the TVC:DXY which gave back gains after U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladamir Putin about starting negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This still holds positive weight on the EUR overall. Considering this, we can pre-plan some possible outcomes including both fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Scenario 1: BUYS at the break the highs (1.05140) - We broke above 1.05140. With the break of this level we can expect a possible move towards the upside without even creating a deeper pullback. The technical analysis and fundamentals would be on our side. Scenario 2: BUYS at the pullback (1.04360) - We came down to our PBA (Pullback Area) at around 1.04360. With the pullback completed and the price respecting this area, we could potentially see more upside on this pair from this KL (Key Level). Long-term buys at this price would be valid. Again technical and fundamentals analysis would both be on our side. KEY NOTES - EXY (EUR) showing strength after last week’s positive “news”. - Breaks to the upside would confirm higher highs. - Respecting our PBA (Pullback Area - 1.04360 would give us a buy opportunity. - Possible resolutions between Ukraine and Russia. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
1
SHORT! US Dollar.....For nowUSD is in a clear wave 2 down for many reasons. - Tariffs speculation - Inflation data higher than expected - US M2 money supply increase - US manufacturing output drops and Retail sales drop Moreover, the dollar for now is bearish until reversals in the aforementioned list of causes for its recent decline. Primarily, look for the FED to hold off on any future rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury Yields(Bond Sell off) rising recently is an indication that the market does not expect any FED rate cuts happening anytime soon. This could spur demand for the US Dollar as other Central Banks globally look to continue to cut rates (i.e. ECB and BOE).
TVC:DXYShort
by UCHE9121
2
XAUUSD - Potential buy incomingBased on the technical analysis of the Gold spot price against the US Dollar, we're observing an interesting setup. The price has recently shown strong bullish momentum, reaching levels around $2,940 before experiencing a pullback. There's a significant support zone highlighted by the orange box around the $2,860 level, which appears to be a crucial area to watch. If this support zone holds and the price maintains above the orange box, we could expect a continuation of the bullish trend. The recent price action suggests there's still buying pressure in the market, and as long as the support at $2,860 remains unbroken, the path of least resistance appears to be to the upside. The technical structure shows a series of higher lows and higher highs before the recent pullback, which is typically indicative of a healthy uptrend. A bounce from the current support level could potentially lead to a test of the recent highs and possibly beyond. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor the price action around this support zone, as a break below it could invalidate this bullish scenario. Risk management is crucial, and any trading decisions should be made with appropriate stop-loss levels in place.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by financialflagship
2
USOIL (WTI) - More downside?The price action for the WTI Crude Oil chart shows that the higher probability move appears to be to the downside, targeting the lower orange box around the 70.00 level. The recent price structure has failed to establish any convincing bullish momentum, and after testing the upper orange box around 73.00, the price has shown weakness. Without any strong buying pressure or upside catalyst visible in the current price action, the path of least resistance suggests a continuation of the downward movement toward the lower support zone.
FX:USOILShort
by financialflagship
Silver at $32.90, Asian Demand Fuels RiseSilver jumped to $32.90 on Friday morning, fueled by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Additionally, strong demand from China and other Asian markets has further supported silver prices. From a technical perspective, $33.15 is the first resistance level, with further targets at $33.80 and $34.50 if the price breaks higher. On the downside, $31.40 serves as the first support level, followed by $30.90 and $30.20 if selling pressure intensifies.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Gold Steady, Set for Seventh Weekly GainGold traded at $2,930 per ounce, maintaining its position for a seventh weekly gain. On Thursday, President Trump instructed federal agencies to explore ways to align U.S. tariffs with those of other countries, though without immediate implementation. While the delay eased some concerns, fears of escalating global trade tensions persisted, driving investors toward gold. Meanwhile, U.S. producer inflation exceeded expectations, following strong consumer inflation data earlier in the week. This reinforced the view that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates soon. Despite this, gold remained resilient, supported by trade war uncertainties and a weaker dollar, which made the metal more affordable for foreign buyers. The first resistance is at $2,949, with further levels at $2,975 and $3,000 if the price moves higher. On the downside, $2,885 is the first support level, followed by $2,830 and $2,760 if selling pressure increases.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage