BTC/USD Analysis (4H Chart) BITSTAMP:BTCUSD **BTC/USD Analysis (4H Chart)**
- **Current Price:** ~$105,331
- **Major Resistance Zone:** Around **107,500 - 110,000**
- **Major Support Zone:** Around **97,500 - 98,000**
- **Key Pattern:** A possible **cup & handle formation** is forming, suggesting bullish momentum.
**Bullish Scenario:**
- BTC is approaching a key resistance zone. If price **breaks above 107,500 with strong volume**, it could push toward **112,300**.
- A successful retest of the resistance as support would confirm the breakout.
**Bearish Scenario:**
- If BTC fails to break resistance, it may retrace back to the **ascending trendline (~102,000-103,000)** or even the **major support zone (97,500-98,000)** for a potential bounce.
**Conclusion:**
- BTC is at a **critical breakout zone**.
- **Break & retest above 107,500 → bullish continuation toward 112,300+.**
- **Rejection → Possible pullback to trendline or support zone.**
Dollar
GOLD GAVE US CHOP...Now will it Move?We got nothing but chop pending news yesterday. Now that new is out the way...we are more likely to get a solid move. Just waiting for the killzone to make a decision on a direction. We need a nice pull back for a solid pull run so I will wait for it to pull outside of value.
DXY - Waiting Guidance from FOMCDollar is currently sitting very close to Bearish trendline like EURUSD and it needs a catalyst to break above or reject from here. With FOMC expected to keep rates unchanged and remain Hawkish, there's a high probability that this will break up for a Bullish move. However nothing can be confirmed until news comes. Therefore please remain cautious when trading around News.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Symmetrical Triangle Analysis: Next move?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4H Chart Analysis
Key Observations:
1. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern:
The chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, characterized by converging trendlines.
This pattern typically signals a breakout, but the direction (up or down) depends on market momentum.
2. Current Price Action:
BTC is trading around $102,979.98 at the time of the chart.
It is above the 200 EMA ($100,003.64), indicating bullish strength.
The price recently bounced off support and is moving towards resistance.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Around $97,785.55 (blue line).
Resistance: Around $109,636.60 (blue line).
4. Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
If BTC breaks above the upper trendline, it may rally towards $109,636.60 or higher.
A confirmed breakout could push BTC to $112,500+.
Bearish Breakdown:
If BTC rejects at resistance and breaks downward, it could retest the $100,000 level or lower.
A breakdown could target $97,785.55 or even $95,000.
Final Thoughts:
Watch for a breakout or breakdown from the triangle pattern.
Volume is crucial—a high-volume breakout confirms strength, while low volume can indicate a fakeout.
If BTC stays above $100,000 (200 EMA support), the bullish bias remains intact.
**DXY Approaching Key Resistance – Potential Sell Setup**This DXY 1-hour chart suggests a potential sell opportunity around the 108.400 resistance zone. The price is approaching the marked "Possible to sell zone," and the analysis indicates waiting for bearish confirmation before entering a short position.
Key Observations:
- **Resistance Zone:** 108.400 area acts as a key resistance, previously causing reversals.
- **Bearish Confirmation:** Suggested before entering a sell position.
- **Downside Targets:**
- **First Target:** 107.749
- **Second Target:** 107.444
- **Final Target:** 106.951
If price rejects this resistance with bearish price action, it could confirm a short setup. Conversely, a breakout above 108.400 may invalidate the bearish outlook.
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 28, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) weakened during the Asian session on Tuesday, moving away from the six-week high recorded earlier against the US dollar (USD). The weakening was driven by investor concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policy. Tougher rhetoric on trade tariffs, in particular statements about new duties, undermined the yen's position as a defensive asset. An additional pressure factor was the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which attracted capital flows into dollar assets.
Amid the recovery of the US dollar, which reached the lowest level since 18 December, the USD/JPY pair approached 155.00. Despite the current weakness of the yen, analysts believe that its significant decline is unlikely. This is due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, supporting the national currency.
On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), according to forecasts, may cut interest rates twice in 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar. A rate cut could reduce the attractiveness of US assets and hamper further growth of the USD/JPY pair.
Investors will closely follow macroeconomic data and speeches of central bankers. USD/JPY is expected to remain in the range of 154.50-155.50, but any change of rhetoric from the Fed or BoJ can significantly affect the market dynamics.
Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 155.00, trading mainly with Sell orders
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The DXY (Dollar Index) market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors.
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The DXY is a geometrically weighted index that tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). The index is influenced by interest rates, inflation, and economic indicators such as GDP and employment rates.
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The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions significantly impact the DXY. With the Fed's rate hike cycle, the US dollar has strengthened against other major currencies. However, the recent decline in US Treasury yields has put pressure on the dollar.
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Based on the analysis, it's challenging to predict a clear direction for the DXY. However, considering the bearish market sentiment and potential bearish patterns, a neutral to bearish move is possible in the short term. Keep a close eye on upcoming events and market developments to adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
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Euro maintaining uptrend due to short-term dollar weakness
The short-term dollar weakness is leading to a notable appreciation of the euro. Within the ECB, there are varying opinions regarding the future rate trajectory, but the prevailing sentiment strongly leans towards the necessity of further rate cuts. ING Group is confident that the ECB will cut interest rates by an additional 25bp at its monetary policy meeting this week and will pursue more gradual easing throughout the year.
It’s also crucial to closely monitor Germany's 4Q GDP and Spain's January CPI results set to be released this week. Germany's GDP (QoQ) is projected to drop to -0.1% from 0.1% in the previous quarter, while the market anticipates Spain's January CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.8% in the prior month.
EURUSD broke below EMA21 and retreated to 1.0430. However, the price is still holding an uptrend, sustaining bullish momentum.If EURUSD breaks above EMA21 and the resistance at 1.0455, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0530. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price could test the support at 1.0400.
DXY - 1H still bearish...While some signals indicate buy opportunities on the dollar index, I remain skeptical. As mentioned in our 4H analysis, the third bullish leg has been completed, and I expect a deeper correction in CAPITALCOM:DXY .
In the 1H time frame, we can observe that the second reaction to the support zone is significantly weaker than the first. This could indicate a potential breakdown of the support zone, with the index likely falling below the 107 level.
Let’s see how this plays out! Follow for timely updates and expert insights! 🚀
Can Turkey's Lira Dance with the Dollar?Turkey stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey, navigating through the complexities of fiscal management and monetary policy to stabilize the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar. The nation has embarked on a strategic pivot towards domestic funding, significantly increasing the issuance of Turkish Government Bonds to manage soaring inflation and debt service costs. This approach, while stabilizing in relative terms, challenges Turkey to balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation, a dance that requires both precision and foresight.
The Central Bank of Turkey's decision to cut rates amidst rising inflation paints a picture of calculated risk and strategic optimism. The bank is threading a needle between fostering economic activity and maintaining price stability by targeting a reduction in inflation over the medium term while allowing short-term increases. This policy shift, coupled with a focus on local funding, not only aims to reduce external vulnerabilities but also tests the resilience of Turkey's economy against global economic currents, including the impact of international political changes like the US election.
Globally, the economic landscape is fraught with uncertainties, and Turkey's strategy of maintaining a stable credit rating while forecasting a decrease in inflation sets an intriguing stage. The country's ability to attract investment while managing its debt profile, especially in light of global monetary policy shifts by major players like the Federal Reserve and the ECB, will be a testament to its economic stewardship. This narrative invites readers to delve deeper into how Turkey might leverage its economic policies to not only survive but thrive in a fluctuating global market.
The enigma of the USD/TRY exchange rate thus becomes a compelling study of economic strategy, where every policy decision is a move in a larger game of financial chess. Turkey's attempt to balance its books while dancing with the dollar challenges conventional economic wisdom and invites observers to ponder: Can a nation truly master its currency's fate in the global marketplace?
GBPUSD Approaches Major Zone: Monitoring Dollar for Next MoveAt the moment, we are observing the GBPUSD pair with no clear bias, simply monitoring the price action as it approaches a key zone. From a monthly perspective, we can see that the price has been in a bullish trend for several consecutive months. However, it is now reaching an important level where a potential pullback could occur.
The plan is to start monitoring the 4-hour and daily charts, looking for a clear signal that confirms the price's intention to retrace from this area. We are not rushing to take a directional stance until the market provides a more decisive signal.
One key factor to watch is the current behavior of the dollar . It is sitting at a strong support zone, which could be affected by upcoming economic data. If this support breaks, we could see strength in GBPUSD , driven by the dollar's weakness.
It is crucial to keep an eye on the signals coming from the dollar and the forthcoming economic data, as these could trigger significant volatility and help define the next move in GBPUSD. Given the current state of the dollar, the likelihood of a correction or move in GBPUSD is high, but we need confirmation through price action.