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USDJPY GAME PLAN WEEK 48After analyzing the forex market's COT report released last Friday, I have aligned my bias with the macroeconomic reports scheduled for this week. There are fewer key events compared to last week, but I am confident that the ones we do have are worth paying attention to. Now, let me explain why I consider USD/JPY to be a good long trade. First of all, the COT data revealed increased interest in a stronger dollar, further strengthening the already solid bullish sentiment. At the same time, all other currencies either showed increased long interest or reduced short interest—except for JPY. I avoid trading pairs that are on the same side of the market, as I aim to find as much friction as possible to create the volatility that we, as traders, thrive on. However, this alone is not enough. I will also follow the key reports and events this week, including: CB Consumer Confidence Preliminary GDP (q/q) Unemployment Claims Core PCE Price Index (m/m) FOMC Meeting Minutes Keep in mind that the U.S. market is closed on Thursday. I won’t wait for every individual release before taking action but will trade accordingly as opportunities arise. For instance, I plan to go long after the CB Consumer Confidence report, but not blindly—I will still base my entries on technical levels. However, the actual numbers in the reports will matter less. The reality is that sometimes a number that misleads the majority, combined with a strong underlying bias, can create a divergence with immense force behind it. I will provide updates as the week progresses. Trades might be held for two days or even throughout the entire week, depending on market conditions.
Long
by OssianH
5
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)After a strong 1,000+ PIPS sell off yesterday, bearish momentum is still holding strong on Gold & keeping prices down. Yesterday's sell off would be considered as Wave 1 of the Bearish correction, which means any minor wave 2 correction we see, this would be your chance to get into sell positions if you haven't already. I will be looking to get into further sell positions for my Gold Fund investors if market structure offers the opportunity. I will NOT be sharing my additional entries on here for free.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
EUR/USD Hits Critical Support: Will It Move Higher?EUR/USD has experienced a decline of over 5% in recent weeks, without any significant pullbacks, raising the likelihood of a potential upward movement in the coming days. This downward trend has brought the price to a key support level on the daily chart, near 1.0450, a region previously tested in December 2022. Following this, the price exhibited classic false breakout behaviour, briefly dipping below this support before quickly reversing upwards. Understanding False Breakouts in the Forex Market A false breakout occurs when the price temporarily breaches a significant support or resistance level but fails to maintain that movement, swiftly reversing direction. In the case of EUR/USD, the breakdown below 1.0450 was rejected by buyers, which resulted in an immediate upward rebound. False breakouts are relatively common in the Forex market, where heightened volatility and manipulation by larger players can trigger fleeting movements that capture the stop-loss orders of conservatively positioned traders. Such scenarios often create opportunities to trade in the opposite direction of the initial breakout. Potential Trigger: Break Above Previous Candle High Today's candle has exceeded the high of the prior candle, signalling a possible shift in direction as buyers begin to regain momentum. This context indicates that the 1.0450 region could once again serve as a crucial defensive point for buyers. Potential Upside in the Coming Days The breakout above the previous candle's high is a positive indication for buyers. If EUR/USD can maintain its position above the 1.0520 level, it may signify the onset of buying strength, with the next upside targets being: 1.0670 - A zone where previous support may act as resistance, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline. 1.0750 - A significant resistance level and prior consolidation zone on the daily chart, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downside. To confirm this bullish scenario, the price will need to sustain upward momentum characterized by large-bodied daily candles and increasing buying volume. Alternative Scenario: Bearish Resumption Should the price fail to maintain the rally and break below the 1.0450 support level, the bearish scenario could resume, with subsequent targets including: The next relevant support zone on the daily chart around 1.0250. A final target near the 1.0100 region, which attracted attention in November 2022. EUR/USD is currently at a critical juncture following a significant decline and a false breakout of daily support. The analysis suggests potential for upside as long as the price remains above 1.0450. However, the possibility of a bearish scenario cannot be dismissed, especially in the event of a negative reversal. This is a crucial period for monitoring price behaviour at key technical levels. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Long
by Marketscom
#2 Danger BTC is falling Bearish Outlook and Macro Perspective As in my previous remarks, I signaled an unstable #100k level, which has developed into a failure even to touch this mark. This reflects a loosening in bullish momentum, as many holders and investors are now taking profits. It's important to remember that there are also long-term holders (over 5 years) who experienced losses of up to #77% since November 2021. These holders might now be exiting their positions, adding selling pressure to the market. Moreover, with speculation surrounding Trump's actions post-20 January next year, it’s wise to approach the market cautiously and avoid wild bets. There are still lagging opportunities in other sectors. For example, Cardano (ADA) recently posted #38% gains in two weeks, highlighting alternative investments that are catching up to the current crypto bull run. Bitcoin Analysis: Bearish Outlook and Short-Term Targets Position Details: Current Sell Entry: #97k Target: #90k Market Structure Overview: The price action is respecting a rising wedge pattern, which is generally a bearish continuation pattern. The breakdown seen near the current price (~#94k) aligns with your bearish outlook. Bearish Confirmation: RSI: The RSI has fallen below neutral (currently #34.06), signaling weakening momentum. MACD: The MACD histogram shows growing bearish momentum (red bars) alongside a bearish crossover. Volume Flow Index (VFI): The VFI at #20 suggests moderate capital flow into the market, but not sufficient to sustain bullish trends. Short-Term Target: #90k The primary target remains #90k, supported by: The wedge breakdown projection aligning with this level. Historical support zones evident on the chart. December Scenario: Potential Retest or Breakout Heading into December, two possible scenarios are likely: Scenario A: Retest as a Double Top A rebound could take the price back to #97k or higher, potentially forming a double top. Rejection here would confirm continued bearish pressure. Scenario B: Breakout to #100k-#102k If bullish momentum unexpectedly revives, a breakout to #100k-#102k could occur. However, this would likely represent a false breakout, followed by a deeper decline. Technical Outlook: Key Resistance Levels: #96k (current zone of interest). #100k-#102k (psychological resistance and possible retest zone). Key Support Levels: #90k (primary target). #85k (potential deeper breakdown area). Conclusion: The current analysis reinforces a bearish short-term outlook, with a sell position targeting #90k. December may bring increased volatility with a possible retest at #97k or a breakout to #100k-#102k before the downward trend resumes. This cautious approach is underscored by macro factors such as profit-taking from long-term holders and alternative opportunities, like Cardano’s recent #38% gains, still lagging the broader crypto bull run. Stay vigilant with key levels and monitor confirmation signals from RSI and MACD.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Adoamigo
BTCUSD Daily Inflection Point This is a continuation of the Weekly Inflection Point. On the daily we're getting close to a crucial area. A downward move here may indicate a large move, correction on the weekly, daily. 16k could easily be hit. There is also the potential for this momentum consolidation to have a breakout leg to 77-88k before a final correction. Watch for a break above or below the keltner channel. If the stock market is about to tank because WW3, the debt bubble created in 2008-2020, then Bitcoin will get shocked with it while everyone scrambles for PM's. After maybe bitcoin will be revived when people realize there isn't enough PM's out there, else some world wide digital currency emerges. Either way I have little hope for bitcoin, unless the NWO backs it because of the transparent transactions that can be traced, blacklisted, non fungible- control. Such a currency is a fools hope and will be used against you when tyranny seeks control over you.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mikhiavelli
1
Gold: Today's Pullback Eases MomentumGold: Today's Pullback Eases Momentum Last week, gold continued its upward trajectory, closing at $2716 per ounce. Several key factors tied to geopolitics, the global economy, and structural demand have contributed to this positive momentum in the gold market. However, today, gold experienced a sharp **3.3% correction**, driven by news of a potential resolution to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. According to Axios, citing a US official, **Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of an agreement to end the conflict**. This announcement eased geopolitical tensions, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Geopolitics and Economic Uncertainty Gold’s recent rally has been fueled by escalating conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, and broader global geopolitical tensions. However, today’s news of a possible resolution in the Middle East has temporarily weakened the case for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, gold continues to benefit from economic uncertainty in the eurozone and China, where fears of slowing growth remain significant. Inflation Concerns and Monetary Policy Rising fears of global inflation continue to support gold prices. Future President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods to the US could fuel cost increases and inflationary pressures, bolstering gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Gold also benefits from ongoing interest rate cuts worldwide, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, central banks’ continued purchases of gold provide additional fundamental support. Emerging Economies and Infrastructure Development Economic growth in emerging markets, such as China and India, where gold has both cultural and investment significance, continues to drive demand. The development of infrastructure around gold trading—such as exchanges, wallets, and investment products—also makes gold increasingly accessible to investors. Conclusion Today’s pullback reflects the easing of geopolitical tensions, but gold’s long-term fundamentals remain robust. Factors such as global economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and central bank policies continue to underpin demand for the precious metal. Will gold resume its rally after today’s correction, or will geopolitical developments continue to dictate its price direction? Share your thoughts in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InvestMate
7
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key EventsNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events. The Nasdaq ended current day on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests this week with two major events: FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but this week FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
Ethereum: Momentum Fueled by Growth and AdoptionEthereum: Momentum Fueled by Growth and Adoption Ethereum (ETH) continued its upward trend over the past week, closely following Bitcoin’s rally. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is benefiting from a range of factors that reinforce its position as a leader in the blockchain space. With strong fundamentals, expanding use cases, and favorable seasonal trends, ETH’s price growth appears poised to continue. Adoption and Network Usage The growing adoption of Ethereum for a wide range of applications—ranging from decentralized finance (DeFi) to enterprise solutions—is a key driver of its rising value. Ethereum’s robust and versatile network continues to attract developers, businesses, and users, solidifying its role as the backbone of the blockchain ecosystem. The Rise of DeFi and NFTs The expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, which leverage Ethereum’s smart contract capabilities, has created new opportunities for decentralized lending, borrowing, and trading. Simultaneously, the ongoing popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) keeps Ethereum at the forefront of digital ownership and creative innovation. Network Upgrades and Transaction Fee Burning Technological improvements, such as Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake through the Merge, enhance network efficiency and sustainability. Additionally, the implementation of EIP-1559 introduced the burning of transaction fees, effectively reducing the supply of ETH and creating deflationary pressure, which can drive long-term price appreciation. Institutional Investment and Ethereum ETFs Institutional investors are increasingly entering the Ethereum market, driven by its utility and growth potential. One of the major catalysts has been the launch and increasing inflows into Ethereum-based ETFs, which provide a regulated and convenient way for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to ETH. These inflows not only validate Ethereum’s role as a leading crypto asset but also contribute directly to its demand and price growth. Seasonality and Market Momentum Historically, the second half of December has often been a favorable period for cryptocurrency markets, including Ethereum. Factors such as increased trading activity, end-of-year portfolio adjustments, and overall market sentiment have historically supported upward trends during this time. Ethereum seems well-positioned to benefit from this seasonal tailwind, potentially pushing its price toward new highs. Competition and Ecosystem Growth Ethereum faces competition from other blockchain platforms, but its first-mover advantage, coupled with continuous innovation, helps it maintain a dominant position. The ecosystem of ERC-20 tokens—built on the Ethereum network—further strengthens its utility and value proposition. Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Factors Positive market sentiment and media coverage contribute to Ethereum’s momentum. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and economic uncertainty, are also driving investors to explore alternatives like Ethereum as a hedge and growth asset. Infrastructure and Partnerships The continued development of infrastructure, including wallets, exchanges, and DeFi tools, makes Ethereum more accessible to users and investors. Strategic partnerships and collaborations within the blockchain space are also expanding Ethereum’s reach and utility. Conclusion Ethereum’s price growth is underpinned by a combination of strong network fundamentals, expanding use cases, increasing ETF inflows, and favorable seasonality. From DeFi and NFTs to network upgrades and institutional interest, Ethereum is positioned to continue its upward trajectory as we move into the traditionally bullish second half of December. Will Ethereum leverage these advantages to reach new price milestones? Share your views and insights in the comments!
Long
by InvestMate
1
Bitcoin: Is the Psychological Barrier of $100,000 Within Reach?Bitcoin: Is the Psychological Barrier of $100,000 Within Reach? Bitcoin continues its impressive rally toward the psychological barrier of $100,000, driven by both fundamental and psychological factors. The rise in its value is supported by growing adoption, institutional investments, positive market sentiment, and key developments within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Adoption and Acceptance Bitcoin’s growing acceptance by businesses, financial institutions, and individual users is increasing its utility and value. As more entities begin to accept bitcoin as a form of payment, demand naturally rises, solidifying its position as a viable medium of exchange. Institutional Investments One of the primary drivers of bitcoin’s growth is the involvement of large institutional investors such as hedge funds, investment firms, and corporations. Their entry into the market significantly boosts liquidity and builds confidence in the cryptocurrency, attracting smaller retail investors in the process. Planned Regulatory Changes and Strategic Reserves Future President Donald Trump’s proposals to establish strategic reserves in bitcoin and introduce cryptocurrency-friendly regulations could be game-changing for the market. Such measures are likely to attract new market participants, driving demand and increasing bitcoin’s value. Media and Market Sentiment Positive media coverage, endorsements from influential figures, and expert analyses play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. Media narratives have a substantial impact on perception and can amplify investor interest, fueling price increases. Technological Improvements Advancements in blockchain technology and updates to the bitcoin network are improving its efficiency, security, and scalability. These innovations make bitcoin more appealing as an investment asset, contributing to its rising value. Macroeconomic Factors Global economic uncertainty, inflation, and the weakening of traditional fiat currencies are pushing investors toward alternative assets. Often referred to as “digital gold,” bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against currency devaluation and a reliable store of value. The 2024 Halving This year, bitcoin underwent another halving – the process that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half. This reduction in new supply, coupled with sustained or growing demand, has historically led to price increases, and the current cycle appears to be following a similar trajectory. Infrastructure Growth and ETFs The cryptocurrency market’s infrastructure is rapidly evolving, making bitcoin more accessible than ever. The growth of exchanges, cryptocurrency wallets, and inflows into bitcoin-based ETFs are driving demand and strengthening the market. Seasonality and an Unstoppable Trend Seasonality is also working in bitcoin’s favor. Historically, the final months of the year often see strong performance in the cryptocurrency market. The current upward trend seems difficult to halt, and breaking through the $100,000 level appears to be only a matter of time. Conclusion Bitcoin remains one of the most dynamic assets on the market, drawing interest from institutional and retail investors alike. The combination of fundamental, technological, and macroeconomic factors suggests that the rally toward $100,000 could not only materialize but also set the stage for further gains. Will bitcoin surpass this symbolic threshold, or are there still hurdles ahead? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Long
by InvestMate
1
S&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekS&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week The S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to the S&P 500’s gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, the S&P 500 benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events: FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the S&P 500 appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The S&P 500 has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the S&P 500’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
Gold: Strong Gains Driven by Global Uncertainty and DemandGold: Strong Gains Driven by Global Uncertainty and Demand Last week, gold continued its upward trajectory, closing at $2,716 per ounce. The positive momentum in the gold market was driven by several key factors related to geopolitics, the global economy, and structural demand for the metal. Geopolitics and Economic Uncertainty One of the primary drivers of gold prices remains geopolitical uncertainty. The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has prompted investors to seek safe havens, with gold, as a traditional "safe haven" asset, attracting significant capital inflows. Additionally, economic uncertainty in the Eurozone and China is boosting demand for gold. In Europe, tensions stem from economic instability, while in China, concerns about a slowdown in key sectors of the economy weigh on market sentiment. Inflation Concerns The rising risk of a global inflation rebound also supports higher gold prices. The tariffs proposed by future President Donald Trump on goods imported into the U.S. could raise production costs and consumer prices, fueling inflation concerns. In such scenarios, gold becomes an attractive hedge against inflation. Monetary Policy and Central Bank Purchases Gold is also benefiting from the ongoing cycle of interest rate cuts around the world. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more appealing investment asset. Moreover, central banks continue to bolster their reserves by purchasing gold at a strong pace, a trend that supports the market amid increasing global uncertainties and inflation risks. Emerging Economies Driving Demand The economic growth of emerging markets, such as China and India, is another factor driving gold prices. These countries traditionally have high demand for gold, driven by cultural and investment preferences. As the wealth of these societies grows, demand for gold, both as an investment and in the form of jewelry, is likely to rise. Conclusion Gold remains a key beneficiary of global uncertainties, both geopolitical and economic. Factors such as escalating conflicts, inflation fears, loose monetary policy, and rising demand from emerging economies are bolstering its upward momentum. Will gold maintain its current growth trajectory? Much depends on the future course of geopolitical and economic developments. For now, gold stands out as an attractive asset for investors seeking safety and inflation protection. What are your forecasts for the gold market? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InvestMate
1
Ethereum is selling Ethereum (ETH) trades near $3,300 on Friday as on-chain data shows investors' profit-taking has weighed down on its price. The top altcoin could stage a 10% rally to $3,732 if it retests and overcomes the $3,400 resistance level. Ethereum investors realize profits following recent price rise Since Ethereum's 10% rise on Thursday, Santiment's data revealed that investors have booked nearly $1 billion in profits — one of the highest in the past three months.Most of the profit-taking potentially came from long-term holders, as revealed by the spike in ETH's Age Consumed metric, which measures the number of ETH changing addresses daily relative to the days since they last moved. Spikes in this metric indicate a large number of previously idle tokens moved between addresses.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by KingForex078
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 25, 2024 EURUSDThe US Dollar may strengthen as the latest US PMI data reinforces the likelihood that the Fed will slow the pace of rate cuts. The Euro faced challenges as the latest HCOB PMI data pointed to continued weakness in Eurozone business activity. EUR/USD recovered from the two-year low of 1.0332 recorded on Friday and traded near 1.0480 during Monday's Asian session. The rebound could be attributed to a correction in the US Dollar (USD) despite strong preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released in the previous session. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, slipped to 107.00 after hitting a two-year high of 108.07 on Friday. However, downside risks to the U.S. dollar remain limited as recent economic data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may slow the pace of rate cuts. The S&P Global US PMI composite index rose to 55.3 in November, indicating the strongest growth in private sector activity since April 2022. The US Services PMI rose to 57.0 from 55.0 in October and well above market expectations of 55.2, marking the sharpest growth in the services sector since March 2022. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing PMI rose to 48.8 from 48.5 in October, matching market forecasts. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0480, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
How Will a Strong Dollar Impact Emerging Forex Pairs?Persistent US dollar strength is poised to pose significant challenges for emerging market (EM) bonds and forex. As the greenback continues its upward trajectory, investors are advised to exercise caution and consider potential risks. Why a Strong Dollar Matters for Emerging Markets A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging market countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. They need to exchange their local currency for US dollars to make payments. When the dollar appreciates, it requires more of their local currency to acquire the necessary amount of dollars. Furthermore, a strong dollar can deter foreign investment in emerging markets. Investors may prefer to invest in US assets, which are perceived as safer and more stable. This can lead to capital flight from emerging markets, putting pressure on their currencies and economies. Potential Risks for Emerging Market Bonds and Forex Investors in emerging market bonds should be aware of the following risks: 1. Currency Risk: A weaker local currency can erode the value of bond investments. As the dollar strengthens, emerging market currencies may depreciate, reducing the value of bond holdings when converted back to the investor's home currency. 2. Interest Rate Risk: Rising interest rates in the US can lead to higher borrowing costs for emerging market countries. This can increase their debt burden and make it more difficult to service their debt obligations. 3. Default Risk: In extreme cases, a strong dollar and rising interest rates can push emerging market countries to the brink of default. This can result in significant losses for bondholders. How to Mitigate Risks While the risks associated with emerging market bonds are significant, investors can take steps to mitigate them: 1. Diversification: Diversifying investments across different emerging markets can help reduce exposure to specific country risks. 2. Currency Hedging: Investors can use currency hedging strategies to protect themselves from currency fluctuations. 3. Credit Rating Analysis: Carefully analyzing the creditworthiness of issuers can help identify bonds with lower default risk. 4. Consult with Financial Advisors: Seeking advice from experienced financial advisors can provide valuable insights and help develop a suitable investment strategy. Conclusion The persistent strength of the US dollar poses a significant threat to emerging market bonds. Investors should be mindful of the risks associated with these investments and take appropriate measures to protect their portfolios. By diversifying, hedging, and conducting thorough due diligence, investors can navigate the challenges posed by a strong dollar and potentially reap the rewards of emerging market growth. It is important to note that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.2
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week The Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: - Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events: 1. FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. 2. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: - Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. - Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
EUR/USD: Euro Weakens as the US Dollar Gains StrengthEUR/USD: Euro Weakens as the US Dollar Gains Strength The EUR/USD pair continued to decline last week, losing 2.8%. This marks another week of euro weakness, driven by poor economic data from the eurozone and strong US indicators that underscore the resilience of the American economy and reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Strong US Data Bolsters the Dollar Key economic data from the US reinforced the dollar’s strength, reflecting the underlying robustness of its economy: - Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): Reported at 213K, outperforming the 220K forecast, indicating a stable US labor market. - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Came in at 57.0, significantly above the 55.2 expectation, highlighting strong activity in the US services sector. These figures diminish the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, maintaining the dollar’s attractiveness to investors. Weak Eurozone Data Pressures the Euro On the other hand, disappointing data from the eurozone added considerable pressure on the euro: - HCOB Composite PMI Flash (Nov.): Dropped to 48.1 (below the 50 threshold indicating contraction), missing the forecast of 50. - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov.): Fell to 45.2, underperforming the expected 46. - HCOB Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Declined to 49.2, well below the 51.6 forecast. The eurozone’s sluggish growth, coupled with inflation stabilizing around 2%, makes a strong case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to accelerate rate cuts. With eurozone rates at 3.4% compared to 4.75% in the US, the dollar’s yield advantage makes it more appealing to investors. Policy Divergence and Trade Risks The divergence in monetary policy between the US and the eurozone is a significant driver of EUR/USD’s weakness. While the ECB seems poised to continue cutting rates, the Federal Reserve may slow its actions or even pause. Further boosting the dollar is the potential for future President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods, which could strengthen the US economy and delay rate cuts. Seasonality: A Possible Lifeline for EUR/USD Despite the euro’s bearish outlook, seasonality could offer some support to EUR/USD. Historically, December has often been a favorable month for the pair, which might provide temporary relief for the euro in the coming weeks. Conclusion EUR/USD remains under significant pressure due to weak eurozone data, monetary policy divergence, and the dollar’s relative strength. Unless there’s a major shift in economic dynamics or central bank decisions, the euro is likely to stay on the defensive. Will seasonal trends be enough to support the euro, or will the downward trajectory continue? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
1