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DXY, bullish or bearish?Welcome back! Today i'm posting a small idea on the DXY. Usually i cover crypto but the macro is important. A weak dollar correlates with more risk being taken and a strong dollar with less risk being taken. Hence my analysis of the DXY. In the above chart a couple of things can be seen which makes the outlook hard to predict. On one side there is a bullflag on the monthly timeframe with a target of 130! On the other side, looking under we can see a bearish MACD cross and a bearish stoch RSI. On average it takes half a year to a year for a cross like this to recover. This causes me to be bearish on the dollar and bullish on risk-on assets. Thanks for reading
TVC:DXY
by Rustlingjimmies
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 21, 2025 EURUSDFederal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the danger to the economy from US President Donald Trump's tariff threats, which seem to exist in a quantum state where they both exist and don't exist at the same time. According to Fed Chairman Powell, downside risks have certainly increased thanks to repeated tariff threats, but Fed policymakers continue to insist that US economic data remains strong, albeit off recent highs. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's (Fed) manufacturing activity survey for March fell to 12.5 m/m, down from the previous reading of 18.1 and down for the second month in a row, but held the brakes and fell less than the median market forecast of 8.5. US weekly initial jobless claims also rose less than expected at 223,000 new jobless claimants, up from 220,000 the previous week. Investors had expected the figure to be 224k. Sales of existing homes in the US also rose by almost a third of a million transactions more than expected, rising to 4.26 million units in February from a revised January figure of 4.09 million. Market watchers had expected a slight slowdown to 3.95 million. With little in the way of economic data on Friday, investors will have a week's worth of events to digest. Traders will also keep an eye on any social media developments from President Trump. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0850, SL 1.0930, TP 1.0760
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sterling Stays Firm as Fed Highlights GrowthGBP/USD held near 1.3000 as sentiment stayed upbeat after the Fed reaffirmed 2025 rate cuts, though delayed. Markets still expect a 25 bps cut in June, with Powell highlighting strong US growth and a healthy labor market. The Fed lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% and acknowledged trade policy risks but sees inflationary effects as short-lived. Focus now shifts to the BoE’s Thursday rate decision, with no changes expected. On Friday, the UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence is projected to fall to -21.0 from -20.0. If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3050, the next resistance levels are 1.3100 and 1.3150. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2800 and 1.2715 if selling pressure increases. 
by ChartMage
Bitcoin's Wild Ride: Will It Moon or Crash and Burn?Ah, Bitcoin—the digital rollercoaster we all love to hate. Currently lounging around $84,000 , but what's next? Let's dive into the crystal ball of crypto predictions, shall we? 🔮 The Bullish Dreamers: Derivatives Delight: Some analysts are giddy over derivatives metrics, suggesting Bitcoin is "poised" to reclaim the $90,000 level in the coming weeks. Because who doesn't love a good gamble? The Bearish Realists: Death Cross Drama: Hold onto your hats! Bitcoin is flirting with a "death cross," where the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day. Historically, this is like the crypto version of a horror movie—cue the dramatic music. Support Level Shenanigans: If Bitcoin can't muster the strength to stay above $81,000, we might be sliding down to $76,000 faster than you can say "HODL." The Fence-Sitters: FOMC Follies: All eyes are on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Will they hike rates? Will they cut? Will they order pizza for lunch? Their decisions could send Bitcoin on a joyride or a nosedive. So, what's the takeaway? Is Bitcoin gearing up for a moon mission, or are we strapping in for a freefall? As always, keep your wits about you, and maybe a parachute handy. 🎢🪂 If you want the deeper breakdown (the one nobody’s telling you), drop a comment or DM me. Maybe I’ll let you in on the real insights. 👀🔥 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before diving into the crypto abyss.
Long
by thunderpips
USDJPY Tests Cup and Handle Formation Ahead of FOMCUSDJPY has formed a cup-and-handle pattern just below the 150 level. Today, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.50%. Wage negotiations so far indicate a 5.46% wage increase, which Governor Ueda described as "somewhat strong." Combined with rising food prices, the risk of further inflation has increased. Japan's inflation has remained above 2% since early 2022, and there’s no sign of that trend reversing anytime soon. In light of these factors, the BOJ is likely to consider a rate hike in May. However, today’s market focus will shift to the FOMC. The Fed is expected to raise its inflation and unemployment forecasts while lowering its growth forecast due to the anticipated effects of new U.S. trade policies. These stagflationary pressures are likely to keep the Fed’s rates elevated for an extended period. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut this year (instead of two as projected in December), the dollar index may begin to recover. The 150 level remains a key resistance for USDJPY. A confirmed breakout of the cup-and-handle pattern has the potential to push the pair towards the 153 level over the medium term. However, given the underlying fundamentals favoring BOJ rate hikes, any upward movement will likely be slower and more choppy, unless of course FOMC goes full hawkish. On the downside, if the Fed is less hawkish than expected, 149 (and sliglty below)becomes the critical support to watch. A break below 149 would invalidate the bullish pattern and shift momentum to the downside for USDJPY.
by ftdsystem
2
USDCAD Short Setup – Potential Top Formation & Seasonal WeaknessTechnical: USDCAD has stalled in recent weeks, signaling a potential topping pattern. A recent break of the short-term trend suggests a deeper correction may follow. Key resistance is at 1.4355 , offering a favourable risk-reward short opportunity. Fundamental: The U.S. dollar remains weak, with commercial participants showing little interest in buying. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is seeing increased accumulation, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Seasonal: Historically, from March 24 – April 30 , USDCAD has declined 76.2% of the time over the past 21 years, with an average drop of 1.30%. Trade Idea: Sell: 1.4355 Stop Loss: 1.4551 Target: 1.3948 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by Signal_Centre1
Silver Surges to $33.90 as Safe-Haven DemandSilver surged to $33.90, its highest since October 2024, driven by a weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions, and strong industrial demand. Recession fears and trade disputes have supported safe-haven buying, with Trump planning new tariffs on China, steel, and aluminum starting April 2. Middle East tensions added support, as Netanyahu confirmed intensified military action in Gaza. Supply constraints and record industrial demand, especially in solar, 5G, and automotive sectors, further fueled the rally. If silver breaks above $34.00, the next resistance levels are $34.85 and $35.00. On the downside, support is at $33.80, with further levels at $33.15 and $32.75 if selling pressure increases. 
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 18, 2025 EURUSDThe escalating trade war with further tariffs on European Union goods by US President Donald Trump is having a negative impact on the Euro (EUR). The US has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium, the EU has drawn up plans to retaliate, and Trump has promised to impose retaliatory 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits. Any signs of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and EU could put pressure on the euro. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has agreed to a €500bn infrastructure fund and radical changes to borrowing rules, or stretching the so-called ‘debt brake’. That should ensure the package is approved in Germany's lower house of parliament on Tuesday and in the upper house on Friday. This, in turn, could boost the common currency against the US dollar (USD) in the near term. In addition, weaker-than-expected US retail sales data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending. This report could put pressure on the USD and serve as a tailwind for the major pair. US retail sales rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, compared to a 1.2% drop (revised from -0.9%) in January, the US Census Bureau reported on Monday. The figure was weaker than market expectations, which had expected a 0.7% rise. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 3.1% compared to 3.9% (revised from 4.2%) previously. Trade recommendation: BUY 1.0920, SL 1.0840, TP 1.1040
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Silver Holds Near $33.80 as Fed Rate Cut Bets Provide SupportSilver edged lower to approximately $33.80 during early Asian trading on Friday, losing momentum. However, the downside may remain limited, as softer U.S. consumer and producer inflation data could provide room for the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut in June, offering some support for the metal. Additionally, concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist policies potentially pushing the world's largest economy into a recession could further support silver's appeal. If silver breaks above $34.00, the next resistance levels are $34.85 and $35.00. On the downside, support is at $33.80, with further levels at $33.15 and $32.75 if selling pressure increases. 
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Sterling Struggles Amid Risk Aversion and US Tariff ThreatsGBP/USD extends its decline for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.2940 during Friday's Asian trading hours. The currency pair faces difficulties as the Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens due to a negative risk sentiment, which has been further worsened by worries over global trade following US President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 200% tariff on European wines and champagne, creating market instability. If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2980, the next resistance levels are 1.3050 and 1.3100. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases.
by ChartMage
Yen Slips Against USD as Tariff Concerns Increase the DollarThe yen fell below 148 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains as trade tensions increased the dollar. Trump reaffirmed plans for reciprocal tariffs starting April 2. Despite this drop, the yen remains near a five-month high, backed by expectations of BOJ rate hikes. Japanese firms agreed to wage increases for a third year, aiming to offset inflation and labor shortages. Higher wages may spur spending and inflation, giving the BOJ room for future hikes. While rates are expected to remain unchanged next week, policymakers may pursue hikes later this year. Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
AUDUSD BUY NOW 120 PipsLooking at the monthly charts, it seems like we've hit a key level where the price has bounced back up nicely. This indicates a shift in the overall trend, making it look like there's potential for some upward movement. Since the DXY (which tracks the strength of the dollar) is weakening, we might be able to ride this wave up and take advantage of the positive momentum in the market. It’s all about following the trend and going with the flow! Risk to reward is very lovely Follow me for your support Thank You
Long
by ShinForex1
The Dollar Index has reversed upward.Hey everyone! Looks like a solid entry for a DXY long and a good time to start ditching EUR and Gold (yes, I do think gold is heading down). On the daily chart, we can see that we've completed five waves down and are now forming a reversal. EUR/USD and GOLD/USD have already started reacting, Index Dollar (DXY) hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Now the climb begins, with the first target around 125 for the Dollar Index. The potential peak? 144, though we’ll likely see corrections along the way. Buckle up—volatile times ahead... 🧐🧐🧐
TVC:DXYLong
by SergioRichi
1
DXY in 1 H timeframeDXY Analysis on RTM Style Here’s an analysis of the **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1H timeframe** based on the **RTM (Read The Market) style** and your drawn arrows: Previous Trend & Break of Structure (BoS)** - The market has been in a strong downtrend, forming **Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH)**. - After breaking the **105.485 level (0.5 Fibonacci retracement)**, the bearish momentum continued down to the **103.5 support zone**. Liquidity Zones & Potential Reversal** - The price is currently consolidating around **103.5**, indicating a possible reaction from buyers. - A **Higher High (HH)** is marked, suggesting a potential shift in market structure. Possible Scenario Based on the Arrows** - A short-term **accumulation phase** is expected between **103.5 - 104**. - If the price breaks above **103.998**, bullish momentum may drive it toward the **105.5 - 106.7 zone (Fibonacci 0.5 & 0.786 retracement levels)**. - If this resistance is broken, the final target could be **107.27**, a strong resistance level. - The market is at a **key support level** and may form a bullish structure. - Confirmation of a **Higher High** and a break above **103.998** could trigger an upward move. - **Re-Accumulation** is expected before a strong bullish continuation. - **Bearish Alternative**: If the **103.5 support** fails, the price may drop further to **102.1**. This analysis is suitable for publishing, but I recommend adding an alternative scenario in case the support fails, giving a more well-rounded outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by mehdi_kb