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Fundamental Market Analysis for January 28, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) weakened during the Asian session on Tuesday, moving away from the six-week high recorded earlier against the US dollar (USD). The weakening was driven by investor concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policy. Tougher rhetoric on trade tariffs, in particular statements about new duties, undermined the yen's position as a defensive asset. An additional pressure factor was the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which attracted capital flows into dollar assets. Amid the recovery of the US dollar, which reached the lowest level since 18 December, the USD/JPY pair approached 155.00. Despite the current weakness of the yen, analysts believe that its significant decline is unlikely. This is due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, supporting the national currency. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), according to forecasts, may cut interest rates twice in 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar. A rate cut could reduce the attractiveness of US assets and hamper further growth of the USD/JPY pair. Investors will closely follow macroeconomic data and speeches of central bankers. USD/JPY is expected to remain in the range of 154.50-155.50, but any change of rhetoric from the Fed or BoJ can significantly affect the market dynamics. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 155.00, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "GOLD vs US Dollar" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📉 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A Bear trade can be initiated at any price level. however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4h period, the recent / nearest high level Goal 🎯: 105.800 (or) Before escape in the market Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook The DXY (Dollar Index) market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors. 🔴Fundamental Analysis The DXY is a geometrically weighted index that tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). The index is influenced by interest rates, inflation, and economic indicators such as GDP and employment rates. 🟠Macro Analysis The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions significantly impact the DXY. With the Fed's rate hike cycle, the US dollar has strengthened against other major currencies. However, the recent decline in US Treasury yields has put pressure on the dollar. 🟡Market Sentiment The market sentiment for the DXY is currently bearish, with 71% of IG client accounts short on this market. However, some analysts believe that the dollar's decline has been overdone and expect a rebound. 🟢Retail Traders' Sentiments Retail traders' sentiments are mixed, with some expecting a bullish move and others predicting a bearish trend. On TradingView, some analysts have identified a potential bearish pattern, while others see a bullish reversal. 🔵Upcoming Events The upcoming events that may impact the DXY include: Federal Reserve Meeting: The Fed's interest rate decision and monetary policy statement may influence the dollar's value. US GDP and Inflation Data: The release of US GDP and inflation data may impact the dollar's strength. Trade Developments: Any updates on US trade policies, particularly with China, may affect the dollar's value. 🟣Trading Expectations Based on the analysis, it's challenging to predict a clear direction for the DXY. However, considering the bearish market sentiment and potential bearish patterns, a neutral to bearish move is possible in the short term. Keep a close eye on upcoming events and market developments to adjust your trading strategy accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 🚨Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 🚨Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
TVC:DXYShort
by Thief_Trader
3
Euro maintaining uptrend due to short-term dollar weakness The short-term dollar weakness is leading to a notable appreciation of the euro. Within the ECB, there are varying opinions regarding the future rate trajectory, but the prevailing sentiment strongly leans towards the necessity of further rate cuts. ING Group is confident that the ECB will cut interest rates by an additional 25bp at its monetary policy meeting this week and will pursue more gradual easing throughout the year. It’s also crucial to closely monitor Germany's 4Q GDP and Spain's January CPI results set to be released this week. Germany's GDP (QoQ) is projected to drop to -0.1% from 0.1% in the previous quarter, while the market anticipates Spain's January CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.8% in the prior month. EURUSD broke below EMA21 and retreated to 1.0430. However, the price is still holding an uptrend, sustaining bullish momentum.If EURUSD breaks above EMA21 and the resistance at 1.0455, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0530. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price could test the support at 1.0400.
by inkicho_exness
DXY - 1H still bearish...While some signals indicate buy opportunities on the dollar index, I remain skeptical. As mentioned in our 4H analysis, the third bullish leg has been completed, and I expect a deeper correction in CAPITALCOM:DXY . In the 1H time frame, we can observe that the second reaction to the support zone is significantly weaker than the first. This could indicate a potential breakdown of the support zone, with the index likely falling below the 107 level. Let’s see how this plays out! Follow for timely updates and expert insights! 🚀
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
Can Turkey's Lira Dance with the Dollar?Turkey stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey, navigating through the complexities of fiscal management and monetary policy to stabilize the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar. The nation has embarked on a strategic pivot towards domestic funding, significantly increasing the issuance of Turkish Government Bonds to manage soaring inflation and debt service costs. This approach, while stabilizing in relative terms, challenges Turkey to balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation, a dance that requires both precision and foresight. The Central Bank of Turkey's decision to cut rates amidst rising inflation paints a picture of calculated risk and strategic optimism. The bank is threading a needle between fostering economic activity and maintaining price stability by targeting a reduction in inflation over the medium term while allowing short-term increases. This policy shift, coupled with a focus on local funding, not only aims to reduce external vulnerabilities but also tests the resilience of Turkey's economy against global economic currents, including the impact of international political changes like the US election. Globally, the economic landscape is fraught with uncertainties, and Turkey's strategy of maintaining a stable credit rating while forecasting a decrease in inflation sets an intriguing stage. The country's ability to attract investment while managing its debt profile, especially in light of global monetary policy shifts by major players like the Federal Reserve and the ECB, will be a testament to its economic stewardship. This narrative invites readers to delve deeper into how Turkey might leverage its economic policies to not only survive but thrive in a fluctuating global market. The enigma of the USD/TRY exchange rate thus becomes a compelling study of economic strategy, where every policy decision is a move in a larger game of financial chess. Turkey's attempt to balance its books while dancing with the dollar challenges conventional economic wisdom and invites observers to ponder: Can a nation truly master its currency's fate in the global marketplace?
Long
by UDIS_View
GBPUSD Approaches Major Zone: Monitoring Dollar for Next MoveAt the moment, we are observing the GBPUSD pair with no clear bias, simply monitoring the price action as it approaches a key zone. From a monthly perspective, we can see that the price has been in a bullish trend for several consecutive months. However, it is now reaching an important level where a potential pullback could occur. The plan is to start monitoring the 4-hour and daily charts, looking for a clear signal that confirms the price's intention to retrace from this area. We are not rushing to take a directional stance until the market provides a more decisive signal. One key factor to watch is the current behavior of the dollar . It is sitting at a strong support zone, which could be affected by upcoming economic data. If this support breaks, we could see strength in GBPUSD , driven by the dollar's weakness. It is crucial to keep an eye on the signals coming from the dollar and the forthcoming economic data, as these could trigger significant volatility and help define the next move in GBPUSD. Given the current state of the dollar, the likelihood of a correction or move in GBPUSD is high, but we need confirmation through price action.
by Wiiso
USD JPY Monthly Prospective Analysis up to 2060I updated my previous idea so that it can be more specific in detail. This is the idea combined with elliott wave theory(I forgot to mention in the previous upload, but, in my chart, the number 2 wave corresponds to the 3 in the elliott and the 3 to the 5. The number 1 wave is the same as the 1 in the elliott). Up to 2027 the trend is down, bounced at around 98 and then going up all the way to reach around 170 (maybe does not reach 200 yen this time, that would be accomplished more than about 50 years later). Hope to live long to see if its correct!
by slowdive430
DXY in 4H timeframehello dear traders U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the potential for a correction over the next month: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: If the Federal Reserve signals a slowdown or pause in its rate hikes, it could put downward pressure on the DXY. Upcoming speeches or FOMC minutes will be key indicators to watch. U.S. Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected economic data, such as lower GDP growth, higher unemployment rates, or declining inflation, could suggest a less aggressive Fed policy, leading to a potential correction in the dollar. Global Economic Trends and Risk Sentiment: Increased risk appetite in global markets could drive investors toward riskier assets (like equities or emerging market currencies), reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical and International Developments: Any easing of geopolitical tensions or positive trade agreements between major economies could diminish the dollar’s safe-haven appeal and contribute to a potential correction. Correlated Markets like Gold and Oil: Rising prices in gold or oil often correlate with a weaker dollar. If these assets strengthen, it could be a sign of dollar weakness. In summary, weaker U.S. data or dovish signals from the Fed, combined with a more favorable global economic environment, could increase the likelihood of a DXY correction over the next month.
TVC:DXYShort
by mehdi_kb
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 22, 2025 GBPUSDThe Pound saw mixed results from UK labour data, but the UK's own Labour Department is taking the figures as a grain of salt. On the US side, US President Donald Trump brushed aside his campaign promises of sweeping tariffs against all US trading partners, focusing on new, more subtle tariff threats against US North American trading partners Canada and Mexico. Markets shuddered as investors tried to keep up with the new headline generator - President Trump. Investors were betting big that the newly minted US president would not impose tariffs on day one, as he has long threatened to do, but a new round of renewed trade rhetoric has market sentiment fluctuating in the mid-range. With only little significant data scheduled for Wednesday, pairs traders will focus on the headlines likely to be released during US trading hours. Pound traders will be keeping an eye on Friday's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from S&P Global, which is due out on both sides of the Atlantic. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2280, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004